Streaming Wars | Who’s Winning, Losing, and Sharing Passwords ?Netflix Is Laughing, Cable Is Crying, and Amazon Is Sneaking Up
Highlights for Today
- Trends and Market Share
- Disney: Streaming Profits on the Rise
- Comcast: Cable Restructuring Underway
- Warner Bros : Box Office Challenges
- Paramount: Streaming Growth Amidst Challenges
In the Battle for Loyalty, One Fact Stands Out: Netflix vs the Rest
1. Trends and Market Share
Platforms like YouTube Premium, Amazon Prime, and Apple TV+ do not report quarterly numbers. Additionally, Disney+ Hotstar is excluded due to its planned merger with Reliance in 2025.
Streaming continues to replace traditional linear TV, benefiting all players. Nielsen reports streaming comprised 41% of US TV time in September 2024, a 3.5-point increase year-over-year, primarily at Cable’s expense.
Key Trends to Watch
-Password-Sharing Crackdown: Following Netflix’s success, Disney introduced paid sharing in the US in late September, with effects expected to emerge in Q4. Max is also gearing up for this initiative.
-Amazon Prime’s Growing Presence:CEO Andy Jassy revealed that Prime Video attracts over 200 million global viewers monthly. Combining exclusive content, live sports, and e-commerce integration, Amazon’s ecosystem presents a credible challenge to Netflix.
-YouTube’s Dominance in Living Rooms: YouTube accounts for over 25% of US streaming TV time (excluding YouTube TV) and continues to grow. Alphabet disclosed that YouTube’s ads and subscriptions brought in $50 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, surpassing Netflix’s $38 billion.
-Subscriber Trends: Tentpole events, like the Olympics for Peacock or hit series like House of the Dragon for Max, drove sign-ups. However, retention remains a challenge for all but Netflix.
2. Disney: Streaming Profits Rise
Disney’s fiscal year ends in September, with Q3 FY24 covering the June quarter.
-Streaming Profits:Disney’s direct2consumer (DTC) segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, posted its second consecutive profitable quarter, generating $321 million in operating income. Core Disney+ subscribers rose by 4.4 million, reaching 123 million, driven by ad-supported tiers.
-Box Office Wins: Hits like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine powered $316 million in studio profits. Disney became the first studio to surpass $4 billion in global box office revenue in 2024.
- Challenges in Parks: Parks and Experiences revenue dropped 6% to $1.7 billion, impacted by hurricanes, rising costs, and competition from the Paris Olympics. Domestic attendance held steady, while international parks struggled.
- Linear TV Decline: Revenue fell 6%, with profits plunging 38% to $498 million as cord-cutting and reduced ad sales weighed heavily. Disney plans to integrate streaming and linear TV rather than divest assets.
- Optimistic Outlook: Disney expects earnings growth in FY25 (high single digits) and double digits in FY26 and FY27. Blockbusters like Moana2 and Mufasa:The Lion King are anticipated to maintain momentum.
Takeaway: Disney’s Q4 highlighted strides in its streaming turnaround, buoyed by box office wins. However, the decline in linear TV underscores the challenges of transitioning in a shifting media landscape. Strong content and a focus on profitability position Disney for success under Bob Iger’s leadership.
3.Comcast: Cable Restructuring
-Olympics Drive Growth:The Paris Olympics boosted NBCUniversal’s revenue by 37%, generating $1.2 billion in advertising and adding 3 million Peacock subscribers, which now total 36 million.
-Streaming Expansion: Peacock’s revenue rose 82% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, with losses narrowing to $436 million from $565 million last year.
-Cable Struggles: Cord-cutting led to a loss of 365,000 cable TV subscribers, with video segment revenue down 6.2%. Comcast is exploring a spinoff of cable networks like Bravo and CNBC to prioritize growth areas.
-Theme Parks Slow: Theme park revenue dipped 5% to $2.3 billion as domestic attendance normalized post-COVID.
-Broadband Trends:Despite losing 87,000 broadband customers, revenue increased 3%, with higher average revenue per user.
Takeaway:Comcast’s Q3 reflected both opportunities and challenges. While the Olympics showcased its media strength, declines in cable TV and theme parks persist. Streamlining through a cable spinoff could sharpen its focus, but sustaining growth in Peacock and broadband remains critical.
4.Warner Bruh : Box Office Challenges
-Streaming Growth:Max gained 7.2 million subscribers, reaching 110.5 million globally, supported by international expansion and hits like *House of the Dragon*. Streaming revenue rose 9%, marking Warner’s first profit since 2022.
-Box Office Struggles:Studio revenue declined 17%, with theatrical revenue falling 40% due to a weaker film slate (*Beetlejuice Beetlejuice* and *Twisters* compared to last year’s *Barbie*). Video game revenue dropped 31%.
-Mixed Network Results:Network revenue grew 3% from the Olympics and *Shark Week*, but advertising revenue fell 13%. The $9.1 billion NBA impairment from Q2 continues to loom.
-Debt and Cash Flow Issues:** Free cash flow dropped 69% to $632 million, with $41 billion in debt. Warner renewed its Charter Communications deal to bolster stability.
-CEO’s Confidence:David Zaslav emphasized Max’s momentum, projecting $1 billion in streaming profits by 2025 and hinting at password-sharing monetization.
Takeaway:Warner’s Q3 highlighted streaming success but underscored its dependence on Max as traditional film and TV segments falter. Balancing debt, declining cash flow, and expanding streaming profitability will be key to its stability.
5.Paramount: Streaming Growth
-Streaming Success:Paramount+ gained 3.5 million subscribers, reaching 72 million, thanks to sports like the NFL and UEFA and shows like *Tulsa King*. The streaming unit achieved a $49 million operating income, its second consecutive profitable quarter.
-TV and Film Challenges:TV revenue fell 6% due to lower ad sales and declining cable subscribers. The film division saw revenue plummet 34%, with theatrical revenue dropping 71%.
-Merger Progress:Paramount’s merger with Skydance Media is on track for early 2025, following the exploration of 12 potential bidders.
-Cost-Cutting:Paramount has completed 90% of its $500 million cost reduction initiative, resulting in layoffs and asset write-downs.
-Strategic Shift:Paramount is seeking a streaming joint-venture partner to better compete with Netflix and Disney while managing cable TV’s decline.
Takeaway: Paramount’s streaming gains are encouraging, but traditional TV and film struggles persist. The Skydance merger offers a potential transformation, though stabilizing legacy businesses remains a significant hurdle.
Paramount
$PARA Swing Long Trigger Still rummaging through stock screener and came across this hidden gem.
NASDAQ:PARA currently sitting right around it's decade low. Just announced their cutting staff again. This would mean they've cut 90% of their staff since they started layoffs.
Also, starting to see some volume cluster up.. If we can get a weekly close above $10.84, we're likely gonna long some.
PARA Paramount Global Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PARA Paramount Global prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 11usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-9-20,
for a premium of approximately $0.36.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
PARAMOUNT COMMUNICATIONSParamount Communications Ltd is engaged in manufacturing of Wires and Cables comprising of power cables, telecom cables, railway cables and specialised cables.
Product Segments
Power: LT & HT Power Cables, LT & HT Aerial Bunch Cables, Control Cables, Instrumentation Cables.
Telecom: Optical Fiber Cable (OFC) & FTTH
Technically a good base has been formed with a triangle pattern. There was a not so strong breakout with volume but seems the accumulation wasn't over then.
Once 84 is breached the trend changes for good.
Paramount Global's Leadership Shake-Up Amidst Merger TalksParamount Global ( NASDAQ:PARA ), home to iconic brands like CBS, MTV, and Paramount Pictures, recently made headlines with the abrupt departure of CEO Bob Bakish and the announcement of a new leadership structure. Bakish's exit comes amidst speculation surrounding the company's potential merger with Skydance Media and strategic disagreements with Paramount's controlling shareholder, Shari Redstone.
CEO Shake-Up:
Bob Bakish, who led Paramount since 2019, was replaced by a trio of seasoned executives forming an "Office of the CEO," including George Cheeks, Chris McCarthy, and Brian Robbins. Bakish's departure marks a significant development, signaling a shift in leadership dynamics and strategic direction within the company.
Merger Talks and Strategic Disputes:
Bakish's exit coincides with Paramount's potential merger with Skydance Media, a move that could reshape the media landscape. However, reports suggest that Bakish clashed with Shari Redstone over strategic initiatives, including the Skydance merger and the potential sale of Showtime. Redstone's push for aggressive strategic moves, coupled with Bakish's reservations, highlights the tension between management and controlling shareholders in navigating Paramount's future.
Financial Implications and Shareholder Concerns:
Bakish's departure comes with a hefty golden parachute of approximately $50 million, raising eyebrows among shareholders. Amidst merger talks and strategic uncertainties, large common shareholders, including Mario Gabelli's Gamco Investors, have expressed concerns over the dilution of common shareholders' interests and the company's overall direction. Paramount's declining market value post-Viacom-CBS merger underscores the urgency for strategic clarity and effective leadership.
Streaming Strategy and Content Monetization:
Paramount's pivot towards streaming, epitomized by the launch of Paramount+ and the acquisition of Pluto TV, reflects the industry's evolving landscape. Bakish's supporters credit him for the company's strides in streaming and maintaining CBS's industry position. However, challenges persist in monetizing content and competing in the crowded streaming market amidst mounting losses in Paramount's legacy TV business.
Sony & Apollo Join Forces in a Bid to Acquire Paramount GlobalSony Pictures Entertainment and Apollo Global Management are currently in talks to explore the possibility of submitting a joint bid to acquire Paramount Global. This information was obtained from an anonymous source who is familiar with the matter. The two companies have not yet approached Paramount ( NASDAQ:PARA ), which is currently in exclusive negotiations with Skydance Media, an independent studio headed by David Ellison. Despite this, some investors have encouraged Paramount to consider alternative options.
If the competing bid comes to fruition, it would involve cash payments for all outstanding Paramount shares ( NASDAQ:PARA ), and result in the company becoming privately owned. The source revealed that Sony would own a majority stake in the joint venture and would operate the media company, along with its library of films and television shows, such as "Star Trek," "Mission: Impossible," "Indiana Jones," and SpongeBob SquarePants. Sony Pictures Entertainment Chairman, Tony Vinciquerra, a seasoned media executive with significant experience in the film and television industry, would likely be tasked with running the studio, leveraging Sony's marketing and distribution expertise.
Due to restrictions on foreign ownership of broadcast stations, the source stated that Apollo would likely assume control of the CBS broadcast network and its local television stations. Sony's parent corporation is based in Tokyo, Japan.
The New York Times initially reported the ongoing discussions between Sony and Apollo. Both Sony and Paramount have declined to comment on the matter, and Apollo could not be reached for comment.
Previously, Apollo had made an offer of $26 billion to acquire Paramount Global ( NASDAQ:PARA ), whose enterprise value at the end of 2023 was estimated to be around $22.5 billion. However, a special committee of Paramount's board elected to continue with its advanced deal talks with Skydance, rather than pursuing a deal "that might not actually come to fruition," according to two people with knowledge of the board's actions.
The committee is currently assessing the feasibility of acquiring the smaller independent studio in a stock deal worth around $4 billion to $5 billion. Skydance is also reportedly in negotiations to acquire National Amusements, a company that holds the Redstone family's controlling interest in Paramount. However, this transaction is contingent upon a Skydance-Paramount merger.
Technical Outlook
Paramount Global ( NASDAQ:PARA ) shares quickly responded to the development besieging it surging by 8.3% from a weekly low of $10.03. The stock has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 54.24.
Moreover, traders need to be cautious as the stock is trading below the 200 and 100-day Moving Averages (MA) igniting a concern about its bullish trend. The question is will it keep surging? or test a new support level eventually.
Paramount (PARA) Flirting with Historical Support, Time to Buy?Hi Guys. As usual always on the lookout for Macro trend setups, signs and opportunities. PARA seems to be in a position of low risk trade setup.
We have made it to a Historical Support level, where interactions here normally leads to bounces upward.
Please note however that previous history does not mean it is 100% probable that it will repeat.
HOwever, being in a downtrend for some time now. It is likely that there maybe DEMAND in this area. Its important to watch for signs of confirmation of Support.
This weeks candle may show signs. It is a Hammer candle printing at the bottom of a downtrend since January. Lower wick indicates buy pressure or demand.
Notice ABOVE we have a resistance trendline. Note if we bounce from here, that will be our area to watch. This resistance trendline has been dragging us down since April 2022.
We could also be attempting to form a double bottom.
Recently there is also an uptick in VOLUME, which can indicate support of the demand currently seen at this support lvl.
Ive added 2 indicators.
MACD shows that we have not reached ABOVE the 0 lvl in quite sometime. Hinting to the idea that eventually we will.
Notice also the presence of Bullish Divergence with MACD and price action.
Watch for the change in color of the histobars to light red. This will suppport the idea of waning bearish momentum. The presence of a bullish cross is also vital to watch for.
Now notice RSI. Our current RSI as indicated by orange circle, shows flattening of the RSI. This shows buying is stalling the sell off.
However, notice the rectangles highlighting previous flattening of RSI. There is a possibility of RSI continuing downward. An important sign for the RSI in my opinion would be if RSI can move above the resistance trendline. This thinking ahead, can coincide with breaking the Major resistance in price action.
Regardless of what happens, right now we are in a critical area and pushes for observation.
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Stay tuned for more updates on PARA in the near future.
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DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Paramount stock slumps 8.51% on request of Equity RaiseParamount Global's ( NASDAQ:PARA ) shares plummeted by 8% on Thursday following news reports that it may require an infusion of new equity of up to $3 billion to merge with Skydance Media. The reports are based on information provided by sources familiar with the deal. The founder of Skydance Media, and his associates are expected to provide a significant portion of the equity needed, but it would be dilutive.
The merger discussions come as Shari Redstone, the controlling shareholder of Paramount ( NASDAQ:PARA ), is reportedly in exclusive talks with Ellison to sell her stake to him. The two firms are also said to be exploring the possibility of a merger.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Apollo Global Management had made an all-cash offer of $26 billion to acquire Paramount, which was turned down. Redstone is seeking to sell the company, as it is in talks about being acquired by Warner Bros Discovery. Paramount's ( NASDAQ:PARA ) parent company, MTV, and CBS have a market capitalization of nearly $10 billion and approximately $13 billion in net debt.
Technical Outlook
Paramount Global ( NASDAQ:PARA ) shares are trading below the 200-day Moving Average (MA) with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 54.72 indicating sellers sentiment.
PARA Paramount Global Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PARA Paramount Global prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 12.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $1.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
PARAMOUNT COMMUNICATIONS - FII'S HOLDINGS INCREASEDCan enter at CMP 110 or Enter at 98 level
if again falls then you need to average at 76 level
Targets - 135, 157+
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PARAMOUNT: The Golden Cross won't save it. Strong short.Paramount is technically at the very high bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 67.184, MACD = 49.860, ADX = 37.093) and just formed the first 4H Golden Cross since January 30th 2023. Being very close to the top of almost a 2 year Channel Down, this rise appears to be coming to an end. Being fairly similar to the Feb 1st peak, both in terms of % range (+65% against +60%) and timing on the 4H Golden Cross, we expect a similar pullback to on a 2 month basis. First target the 0.382 Fibonacci and 1D MA50 (TP1 = 14.25) and on the next bounce, the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP2 = 12.65).
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Paramount Shares Jump After Reports of Takeover InterestParamount Global shares surged Today following reports from Deadline and Puck News that Skydance and Redbird Capital were exploring potentially taking over the media giant.
Paramount’s controlling shareholder, Shari Redstone, has been open to making big deals, especially as the company weathers the storms of declining revenue and streaming losses.
Paramount shares were up more than 12%. The company has a market cap of about $10.5 billion and is up more than 1% for the year, lagging the S&P 500′s 19% gains.
PARA Trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a bullish trend.
The earnings per share (EPS) of Paramount Global is expected to decline by 37.50% in the current quarter (Dec 2023) and increase by 333.30% in the next quarter (Mar 2024). The EPS for the current year (2023) is estimated to be $0.7, which is a 59.10% decrease from the previous year (2022). The EPS for the next year (2024) is projected to be $1.29, which is an 84.30% increase from the current year.
The revenue of Paramount Global is expected to decrease by 3.10% in the current quarter (Dec 2023) and increase by 9.00% in the next quarter (Mar 2024). The revenue for the current year (2023) is estimated to be $29.92 billion, which is a 0.80% decrease from the previous year (2022). The revenue for the next year (2024) is forecasted to be $31.36 billion, which is a 4.80% increase from the current year
Paramount Jumps on Report to Bundle Streaming Service With AppleParamount Global (PARA) - shares jumped Today 1st December following a report that suggested the group is in early-stage talks to bundle its content with Apple (AAPL) .
Paramount and Apple are looking to create a streaming bundle that will be priced at a discount to rivals such as Netflix (NFLX) - by combining content from Paramount+ and Apple TV+ into a single offering. The Journal reported similar plans from Netflix and Comcast (CMCSA).
Streaming services are looking to win over new customers who have weathered sharp price increases across all major streaming hubs over the past 12 months.
Paramount Global shares were marked 3% higher in early Friday trading to change hands at $14.80 each while Apple edged 0.1% lower to $189.78 each. Netflix, meanwhile, slipped 0.2% to $473.00 each.
Paramount Q3 results had lagged estimates
Paramount cautioned investors last month that a slump in ad sales and intensifying competition would clip its current-quarter earnings. It posted weaker-than-expected third-quarter profit of 39 cents a share on revenue of $6.92 billion.
Ad sales, Paramount said, were down 4% from a year earlier to $363 million, leading to a 5% decline in revenue for its TV Media division, the group's largest.
Paramount, which changed its name from ViacomCBS earlier this year, owns the Paramount CBS, Showtime, MTV and Comedy Central brands and hopes to have at least 100 million streaming subscribers by the end of 2024.
Third-quarter subscription revenue was up 59% from a year earlier to $863 million, paced by growth in its Paramount+ streaming offering, which includes NFL games and soccer matches from the UEFA Champions League.
Price Momentum
PARAA is trading in the middle of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors are still evaluating the share price, but the stock still appears to have some downward momentum. This is a neutral sign for the stock's future value.
Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PARA): The Journey Towards Greatness Paramount Global announced that it will commence cash tender offers of up to $1 billion combined aggregate purchase price (the "Combined Tender Offer Cap") for: (1) any and all of its 4.750% Senior Notes due 2025 and 3.450% Senior Notes due 2026 (collectively, the "Any and All Securities") and (2) a combined aggregate purchase price of up to the Combined Tender Offer Cap less the aggregate purchase price of the Any and All Securities validly tendered and accepted for purchase (in each case, excluding accrued and unpaid interest to, but not including, the applicable settlement date and excluding related fees and expenses) (the "Maximum Offer Amount") of its 4.00% Senior Notes due 2026, 2.90% Senior Notes due 2027 and 3.375% Senior Notes due 2028 in the priorities set forth in the applicable table below (collectively, the "Maximum Offer Securities" and together with the Any and All Securities, the "Securities").
The offer to purchase the Any and All Securities is referred to as the "Any and All Offers," the offer to purchase the Maximum Offer Securities is referred to as the "Maximum Offer," and the Any and All Offers and Maximum Offer are referred to together as the "Offers." The Maximum Offer is subject to proration and order of priority (the "Acceptance Priority Levels"), as set forth in the applicable table below under "Acceptance Priority Level." The Offers are open to all registered holders of the applicable Securities (collectively, the "Holders").
PARAA is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price lower, and the stock still appears to have downward momentum. This is a buy opportunity.
Big potential drop within next 6 monthsNASDAQ:NFLX has already dropped from ATH of 6xx $ to 17x$. Paramount looks next. On charts we see a technical head and shoulder (HS) in play. The breakdown has started. Wait for confirmation by retouch on the neckline of the HS pattern before shorting (green flag). Any confirmed close above the neckline voids the HS pattern and this analysis. Target is Covid low of around 12$
Paramount HHThere is a new higher high but yet to be a higher low with continuation divergence.
there are more market risks than I like. Index's look ugly, tax season, it comes down to follow through price action at a historical inflection point. The white line must be broken and back tested as support to cause a change of character.
Under this market's selling pressure i think the probability is low or you could look at sideways movement until the money printer goes brr again.