SPY IndexThere is a clear bearish trends in the SPY Index.
This will be confirmed when the MA 20 and MA 40 intersect.
After this, they will probably go down several points, but it is important to keep in mind the past bearish floors in order to look for a potential buying opportunity.
It has not been a good couple of months for the Stock exchange, but this will only create more opportunities and further profits for those prepared.
Patience
USDCHF Testing a year-old resistance - Bullish ScenarioThat green area is a daily bearish orderblock that is now being used as a resistance for the third time.
So far this is the longest consolidation inside of it since we broke below in March 2017, which is a good indication that the resistance is weakening and may be broken anytime.
On the 4H chart, we've hit the local sweet spot for a retracement and are currently aiming to break that resistance.
Since we're still below it, entering now would be risky , but if we wait for the break above, and enter on the retest, we could make it a high probability trade with a target at the next weekly resistance level.
I will update or add a new idea once that happens, but watch for that break.
BTC Finally Breaks Down!Unable to get a chart posted at time of break down but here we go.
Jumping off last chart, I discussed the box (still highlighted here) which was really just our range we bounced within. That being $6345 and $6493. Very easy for scalp traders to long on a break above or short on a break below. I personally do not short BTC so had no interest in the break down unless we started falling closer towards $6k to play an oversold bounce. If I were shorting, I would have played it safe and waited for the break below $6345 and entered a short there and at this point would set a break even stop or perhaps a stop slightly above $6345. But again, not shorting this market personally. So lets look more into details of what is happening.
So we broke down. If in a position, a tight stop was at $6380 (most recent low of the tight range it was bouncing within). Conservative stop at $6345 (low of the entire 2 weeks of this tight range) and as we see over and over in this market, a quick flush down as multiple stops trigger and people exit their positions from this tight range we'd been in for about 2 weeks.
Bottom was caught at $6211 so not a ton of damage done but thus far a pretty weak bounce off the low.
Also in place is the same EMAs I use which are still playing catchup to the price, the 12 and 26. Watching for those to serve as resistance or a bounce upwards towards our previous box ($6345-6493) to give a rejection from the bottom of that box at $6345. Often prior support acts as future resistance once that support fails.
So, its again, a game of patience. Nothing screams enter a bullish position here. I need the bulls to either: 1. Prove themselves with a break of some resistance point. 2. Establish a clear higher low and higher high pattern on 4hour or higher timeframe. 3. News catalyst possibly but even those seem to fizzle out quickly lately.
So bottom line is same as it's been for the past month or so. Market is boring, volatility not really there for easy profitable trades. $6000-6500 is really no mans land to me and if we see $6345 area act as resistance, perhaps this no mans land tightens up a bit for the range. But fortunately stocks have plenty of volatility and allow for profitable trades at this time when crypto is boring.
BTC remains range bound!Last Thursdays chart I was watching a bit of an ascending triangle to see if it caved. It did quickly after the chart posting and we saw BTC fall from $6420's to $6354. This really isn't a big fall but when we have been trading in such a small range, it certainly is noticeable. $6000-6500 continues to remain of no interest to me as I have been stating for a couple of weeks now. We have been stuck within this range for about 2 weeks now outside of the 1 hour tether spike. Last chart I was watching for if the triangle broke bearish, would all 3 supports I had noted of $6412, $6375 and $6345 cave with it. Bulls held the last support by less than $9. They did try and battle back some over the weekend and I have set in place a new lower resistance at $6453 from that. But really, market is boring. Have my alerts down near $6k and up around $6.5k. Otherwise not checking in too often on BTC pricing. Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make. I've been much more patient in this market as of late because the volatility just is not there to make for nice trades.
Bulls at this point would love to keep above the $6345 level and bears want to keep things under $6500. If bulls break above $6500, we look up towards our double top in the low $6800's for resistance. If bears break down under $6345, I look towards $6151, 6111, 6039 and 6k psychological. Things remain extremely tight so at this point, it continues to just be a game of patience.
Just My 2 Sats!
NANO/BTC Idea - Patience for Long SetupHere is a setup that could reap large profits if it comes to fruition...
Looking for a retest of previous price levels, along with the RSI to retest its previous low.
The 2 main supports I see are in yellow. It is possible to bounce from the first yellow square. However, I will not open a trade there. If price enters the 2nd yellow zone, and if the RSI enters the second yellow zone, that could be a great trade setup, with a great Risk/Reward profile.
So I am setting a buy order just above 2nd support level (our previous major low), and see if the price reaches in next days.
It very possibly may not, but I will remember to protect my capital at all times, as should you :)
Be selective with what trades you take!
Good luck traders :)
We must be patient and let this trade come to us!Hello all,
As you may know, I've been eyeing a trade in the ETHBTC pair for quite some time now. This said, I feel no urgency to jump in this trade. I am calm. I am patient.
It is important that you develop a strategy and stick by it religiously. I am very excited to jump into this trade when it is ready, but I must wait. The markets are the means by which money is transferred from the impatient to the patient.
It will be at least a week until I jump into this trade, likely two or more, but the day will come.
The one thing I wanted to talk to you all about today in terms of the actual market and not the chart is an article published by Bitmex Research that found that most of the ICOs have sold the majority of their coins. This is very good. ICOs raised hundreds of millions of dollars and therefore sold hundreds of millions of dollars to hold on to profits. This has noticeably caused ETH to fall very hard against BTC despite them both being in the same bear market and highly correlated.
If ETH can hold these levels and bounce, that would be very bullish for ETH. It is possible that we may be able to form concrete support about the $70 level. I mention the dollar figure because a drop from here to $70 is more substantial than BTC falling to $5,000 which are the next support levels. Be on the lookout for my work on this trade because this is a trade I am expecting to double my BTC trading account WITHOUT leverage.
Good luck everyone,
-YoungShkreli
CAD/CHF - Another Impulse up?So, we had an amazing bearish run on the CAD/CHF pair which lately is not that choppy and tradable.
At this moment it's pretty clear to say that Daily time-frame looks promising for another Impulse to the upside on 60 tf IF price rejects the 50EMA.
Be patient and don't jump in this trade without confirmation. It's just an insight about my analysis etc. Not gonna release my SL/TP for this trade if it triggers. Let's leave it for the next situation.
Wishing you all the best and let's see what this pair gonna give us.
GJ short daily/h4/weeklyI have 2 possible price levels to short this market from, this pair has broken through the weekly uptrend and is making way to retest, the current h4 medium term resistance downtrend may suffice for scalps but not for swing as price may still make way with the bulls towards the white weekly trendline before is descends for a swing once again in the weeks if not months to come.
The best setup is to wait for the weekly retest, but a scalp still presents now on h4, if and only if it closes with a bearish engulfing close , then theres a clear take for a minimum of 50pips+ scalp.
WHALE TRACKS !! A CASE STUDY. ISP is an Italian bank that has really taken a beating this year. Under all metrics it is a really weak institution.
What I wish to demonstrate today is how whales operate and hopefully how to take advantage of it.
Before I continue I'd Like to state two Axioms I take with me anytime I chart
1) A body in motion stays in motion unless an external force acts on it
2) Don't trade or look for the bottom , always wait for it and act on the weaker price action
Ray Dalio put a huge net short position on this bank , before the Italian fixed crisis and the Turkish mayhem that had a bleed over on the whole of the EU.
It is the actions of institutions that guide us , not our hypotheses. With that said are you willing to go long , short or wait? What are the positions in the market , who are in control of the market . Where and how does that change.
Those are the questions that I ask price , and I use its answer to give me a position.
HAPPY WEEKEND.
Not quite finished puking yet. CWH has been diving for a while now. Weekly RSI is nearing oversold. I definitely would not long this stock right now. Atleast not yet. It's still slightly overpriced. I would try to pick it up for between $15 and $17. By this point, RSI on the weekly will be extremely oversold, and we can look for a nice weekly reversal candle bouncing off this supporting trend line. Also, there is a strong sell sentiment which is scary too. Put your buys in low and wait for the fill! Stop loss should be placed below the trend line, according to your level of pain tolerance. Best wishes mi amigos.
- Matt
EN Neutral MonthlyEURNZD has been showing mixed signals for months regarding direction, its still within a ranging zone on monthly and weekly.
This pair is advisable to only trade ones a definitive direction is established in a breakout below the monthly support zone , else price will make way to retest the descending monthly inner cross trendline, before shorts move in heavily.
Patient Sell TradePrices are approaching heavy supply zones, not quite there though, going to stay patient to short at a good price.
USDCHF weekly short correctionUSDCHF has made way in my previous publication to induce shorts from a trendline touch on daily , the weekly hammer close from last week persists with the bulls currently. I see a wave of short orders coming in on a double top flat 3 wave correctional cycle @ wave (C).
wait on price to retest that level just above 1.0000 if the daily trendline does not hold , this a medium term setup on weekly.
Patience, discipline and a bit of judgementOne of the big issues for many traders is simply patience.
In this video I'm showing how one set up could have taken 63 days to deliver around 500 points. What's the rush? Let the charts work for you.
Patience and discipline takes time to develop, of course. Do the time. Take the time. Let time work for you.
Sometimes a bit of judgement is required. But whatever we do, minimising loss is the big issue.
Taking an affordable chance (or loss) is sometimes necessary - as in this game there is no certainty. My own methods therefore do not rely on 'confirmations'.
Importantly in this 6H chart, one need not check the trade more than once or twice per week.
XAUUSD Buy setup at 1215-1212 H4 Gold is still moving within bearish descending trendline , current price bearish sentiment is respecting trendline techs.
A highly possible bullish breakout at the end of this bearish channel is expected, wait on breakout and retest to buy from 1215-1212, towards 1265 first TP.