Patience
The Beast - Here Again 1 week later - can we break?Now this is definitely junction zone!
IF WE FAIL TO BREAK THE CURRENT RESISTANCE THEN WE WILL COULD BE SHORT FOR A BIT
Please try not to go long from here if you are not already in and if you do, expect lots of stop outs so may be best to scalp.
We have Crude oil Inventories today,this is due to be used for some manipulation today.
If like us, anyone is still holding anything from 24th ($82) and 25th Jan ($83) then good on you!
We will let ours run and move Stop losses to 85.5 for any shock drops.
Although there is a big chance of a retracement,we may still be on course for what the target was on 190122. That is 88.03 as the top of the next box suggests.
When we get there it will be interesting to see what happens. If we do get a strong retracement from these levels or indeed the beginning of "the short,"
We will be looking at 83.7-9 for a bounce or the resumption of the Bullish movement. We have a 4 hour close in the box above so if we see some more Blue,it will be extra Bullish confirmation for us.
We can expect a reaction from there 88.3 (if it can get there) which will either see a sharp rejection or an over extension to get some more of the Red Vector candles from October 2014.
Remember this Beast could actually get to $92/$93 in the next few weeks if whats going on with Russia affects as well as other factors cause it to blasts past certain resistances above. 88.3 is a very important level if it can get there so be careful.
Goodluck guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt!
Oil Corrective Price Action ContinuesThe large descending (often bullish) channel in blue continues to suggest that Oil will continue
to challenge the above prices. The weekly chart (not shown here) suggests that the trend is getting
weaker with the print of TWO LARGE DOJI candles. This does not inspire confidence to buy this
and better to just wait for confirmation. The plan continues to be that 93.23 area is where this
will turn back down. Nothing to me indicates that this will head higher than that target and if we take in to
account the weekly candle patterns that it might not even make it there. For now we just wait on oil
to do it's thing.
Patience is the only move to make for now. ⚠️Alright team, nasty action from the $TICKs all morning, as the selling pressure isn’t easing up here. $SPY is trying to hold support around $425, which will be a key level to hold here to avoid even more downside ahead of the Fed on Wednesday.
🔴 In a perfect world, things will hold support here and bounce later in the week, at which point we’d look to aggressively short in the indexes.
🔴 We have seen that once an index gets to 4% down, limit down becomes a magnet!!
🔴 My Market screener is showing RED all over. I am basically using three copies of my custom indicator and looking for momentum, trend scoring and UDV volume markers.
🔴 VIX is over the healthy limits for entering trades here. Cash is king.
The screener includes market breadth and long term trend indicators on the bottom. If they are squished, just stretch the screen.
Since the shorts scalpsSo its been an interesting week in Gold and it's great to see the Vector candles doing their job in the hourly and 4 hourly.
We were done with the short scalps at 1810 and caught a sniper long entry at 1805.88 where a Green Vector candle was to be recovered by red which flipped and turned green. We pulled out majority at 1823 but re-entered more longs for the rest of the journey to 1837. It blasted past 1830-1835. Due to Green Vector recovering Red Vector from 221121 (top 1838.8) on 190122 and approaching the top of the box and some of our short entry prices (1845/1848) on 200122, we started on the short scalps again. As well as potentially a meaningful short to the bottom of the box as there is more Green Vectors below. We are experienced enough on Gold to know it can carry on long also at anytime as there are Red Vectors above too. But we are more leaning bearish at the moment and are looking to cut any long scalps at 1841-43 where the nearest and most recent Red Vector candle is. Unless of course we see Blue in the recovery of Reds at these most recent highs.
If the short plays out from here, apart from the most recent Green Vector candles that manipulated us up to these levels down at 1822, 1810, 1805, the juicy Green Vector candle down at 1765 (Wick bottom 1753) looks like a nice place to aim for. The next levels where Green Vector candles exist are down at 1740, 1730, 1720 and of course our ultimate short target to fill the Rogue wick from last August (1668-1680) will be our super extended short targets.
The next Red above is as follows:
First contact 1850, body top 1860 wick top 1866. Thereafter we're looking at a Candle at 1870 and 1874 from 161121. Always be prepared for a potential 200-300 pip override to the upside before the actual drop but that whole area is a mega short waiting to happen. But until we have meaningful Bullish confirmation we will long scalp and hold the short from 1847.5.
Progress check!
22 trades since 11th Jan
13 shorts 10 50-90 pip scalps (3 x 100+ pips)
9 longs 7 50-90 scalps (2 x 150+ pips)
21 wins
1 loss
1 Short running
1 long scalp running
Good luck guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt.
BTC WEEKLY ANALYSIS "Patience is not passive, on the contrary, it is concentrated strength" - Bruce Lee
With many people growing frustrated that BTC continues to hover around $40k as we approach the end of January 2022, it's a good time to remember that PATIENCE is a VIRTUE, and good things come to those who wait!
During times like these it's important to remember a saying which I live by: WHEN IN DOUBT, JUST ZOOM OUT!
By zooming out and looking at the BTC price history on the WEEKLY view, you can clearly see the two distinct triangles that have formed over time. Although we are still waiting on a breakout of the 2nd triangle, if the first triangle is any indication, we are on the verge of a powerful upwards move.
Stay Patient My Friends. It's coming.
Short scalps Done?So it's been a couple of days (4) and we had to wait a while for the 170 pip move from 1828 but added a beautiful short scalp yesterday from 1822. Our target from our last idea we was holding out for was 1810 and woke up to some good news.
The idea of capitalising on scalps while we wait for the big move - whatever direction it will be in -has definitely done us some good. We cannot help but notice however that something big is coming and they will try and use some news this week to be the catalyst. Keep a close eye from Wednesday onwards when Dollar news comes out (all manipulation)
Progress check:
8 short scalps
3 long scalps
With one of them being 170 pips and one being 110 pips I guess they were slightly more than scalps but 930 pips in total in scalps since Jan 11th isn't too bad is it. We would definitely say it beats just waiting around.
Now what are we looking out for? There is a Green Vector (Bottom 1805) candle below to be recovered in the hourly timeframe and we can expect at least a bounce from there if not a meaningful long but we are pretty much done for now until Wednesday when there is news that they can use to manipulate the market.
Keep Short scalps short and sweet until they become "the" short and hold longs from the best prices back to your short entries.
Good luck guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt.
AUD/CAD Expecting ContinuationAUD/CAD is currently in a primary downtrend, with a few secondary and minor trends within. I expect price to continue trend until I see the accumulation phase coming along or some force. I will be watching this closely for the next couple of weeks for a possible long setup near major support.
USDCAD What do you see on UC? There are different scenarios currently running on this pair, I would really just be patient until the daily close confirms our bias.
With the weakness of USD it is very hard to conclude that we can go with a bullish rally.
On the other hand, our confluences are committed to our plan.
We just wait patiently for our daily candle close to decide our positioning for next week.
HAVE A NICE WEEKEND, DON'T FORGET TO BACKTEST YOUR STRATEGY AND EVALUATE YOUR PERFORMANCE.
Dangerous times WTIWe are at a funny little junction right now!
In one of our recent 1HR TF ideas ("Like clockwork tight $1.....") we spoke of a characteristic of Oil that is important to know when trying to catch shorts.
That is, when Oil gives $2.60 in shorts it means one of 2 things, either it is showing the beginning of a big drop or it would be a bear trap like the many before it and it would probably rise double the distance of the fall to make a new high.
At the time of posting that, we were already on the Bull Bus and had $1 in the bag, then caught a juicy $1 dollar short from $80-$79 while letting the longs run. but eventually closed the last of those longs (77.8) at $80.8, while allowing partial buy stop longs from 79 (straight after $1 short scalp) where Red Vector recovered Green Vectors at 2pm. (110122)
We got out as of Asian session at 81.3 because where we are is too dangerous for a time of no volume. A $3.80 journey from the low is not bad, even if we didn't get to be in for all of it. However We cannot see it doing $3.80 up and calling it a day, It probably wants to do a bit more but where the hourly is concerned,it may do some dipping before resuming (hopefully activate some sell stops) so we have to be very careful.
Stay disciplined on the short scalps and always be ready to stay long from good buy prices but close shorts quickly when the Bull is in the room.
One of these short scalps will end up turning into "the" short
We will see what we wake up to
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
Naughty Market Maker - Beware Green manipulation on hourlySorry TVC USOIL guys had to use this chart to show how naughty the set up is
THIS IS A SHORT TERM LONG IDEA- it will drop when they have unlocked their funds from Red Vector candles at the highs
Keeping this one short and sweet We hope. So it's no secret we stopped being aggressively Bearish when we failed to hit the next Green Vector candle below. (77.74)
We was talking something about doing (rising) double (it may do more) the fall in a rise to a new high. Well if $2.60 (260 pips) was the drop, $5.20 (520 pips) up from the low would put us up at $83 a barrel which we are very close to. We got out after a measly $3 and its now done $4.70.
(sad face) but we made up for it slightly with two $0.50 long scalps (hold one more as far as it can go)
The issue Bears have is we have a Green Likely to turn Blue at the top recovering the Big Red from 101121 and if it closes that way we can actually, really, unbelievably, ridiculously, genuinely be on the way to £90. Although $84.45 is a more realistic unrealistic target.
Praying for it to turn purple and take us down. But until we see purple or They realise some more of their short in This Giant Red Vector candle
we are in long scalps with our targets all the lines associated to That Red Vector candle from 101121.
Look out for a drop though and have sell stops ready at all times
Good luck guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
Short taking longer than planned - got all the time in the world2 of our sell prices gave us good sell scalps. Well 80 pips and 60 pips isn't anything special on Gold to most people. We tell you it definitely is something when you are counter trend/sentiment trading.
1823 gave us 80 pips and 1825 gave us the 60. Now what we do not like is the fact there is another Blue Vector on the 4HR. All be it at the top where it can act as a volume stopper as seen on the 5th Jan. It was really the Purple candle that gave us more confirmation to execute the sell.
Blues at lows tend to be the ones that give near instant gratification when going long.
With all of that being said, we are sure any and everyone that actually knows how to trade Gold will be more than aware of the fact that "the" sell has a chance of taking place from a higher price and that is why you must know where you can take short scalps and when to close them quick.
But the sell that began from the Thur 16th Nov actually started developing from the Wed 10th Nov and it went up all together another 200 pips that week after recovering the Red Vector With a Green one. The one in June went up another 203 pips after recovering a Red Vector with a Green Vector on 25th May before dropping on June 1st so we need to bear that in mind. It is definitely not a coincidence
We are sticking to our guns and looking for shorts at key levels:
now
1827, 1830, 1834, 1846, 1860
(By all means happy to long scalp to the furthest of these levels if conditions are right)
if it can get to them, and we will be looking for a Big red Vector recovering a Big Green vector below to join longs to these higher prices if that happens. But until then we are constantly Short scalping until we see Blue lower (up signal) or our short scalps become "the" short
Good luck guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
New short cookingYes It's been Bullish and it feels great when you're in buys on Gold and it's bullish. We came out of our longs at 1804 so we missed out today on longs. But we got something better instead, an indication that a short is coming. Green Vector has made contact with Red Vector in the 4HR timeframe. There is definitely some of the Red Vector to go but we are approaching psychological levels 1820,23,25 and 30 and this means they can drop it like its hot at any point.
Be ready to come out of longs and get into shorts and look out for sniper entries at those levels for juicy shorts. If they don't work out then we just try again from higher, but the bottom line is Gold wants to go and fill that rogue wick at some point (1670). It will definitely be great to be in from the best possible price for the ride.
sometimes you have to be entering while everyone else speculates and sometimes you have to sit on your hands and wait for the right triggers
Good luck Guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
Potential Handle formingThe breakdown from the Rising Wedge happened a little sooner than expected (see linked idea). From here I'm expecting a short-term bullish move off the 50 EMA and then a retouch of the SUPPORT-TURNED-RESISTANCE line. From there I'm expecting the "Handle" of the Cup & Handle pattern to develop. I'll be looking for a buy opportunity at the end of the handle.
Keep rising, keep learning, don't get discouraged. Trading takes patience.
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These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing.
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POSSIBLE 400 PIPSStructure has been broken on the 4H timeframe.
Prime Entry ... 0.6235
30 Pips Stoploss
Target ... 0.6630
Risk : Reward
1 : 13
Move stoploss to breakeven around 0.6355 (i.e 38.2 level of the CD Leg of the harmonic pattern)
Manually exit position if price closes below 0.6235 ON THE 4H TIMEFRAME
"A stock is never to high to buy" - Kroger patienceFor more than a year I have been watching Kroger NYSE:KR stock. I stop there every time I buy groceries so it is one of those companies that fall under "Cupboard Investing" in stocks you know and use. For something as mundane as selling groceries it is quite a volatile stock.
The history really begins in 2020 when a member of my Discord who is very bullish the stock got me interested. Kroger had a big earnings dip on December 2020 and I hesitated to pull the trigger. I prefer to only enter any instrument on an indicator defined setup. Entering on the drop would have just been a "gut trade" on my bullish bias. So I waited. For reasons unknown the stock got a massive RIP in January during the Meme Stock Madness that month. Clearly I had missed the run. So I waited.
It took 10 months until October 2021 before on my daily scans I finally saw KR with a bullish Spike Alert. It fit my rules for happening at a 50% Retracement Level so I went in. The trade played out to the first target with no problems and I left on shares for the long term position I desired.
Patience pays off. Do just jump into a stock on FOMO. You'll always get an opportunity even if it takes months of disciplined waiting if you are diligent.
XRP - Patience Is The Key To SuccessXRP is still coiling up and down with consolidation that seems to have no end. Like with many laggers patience is key for the hodlers. We will eventually see the breakout but i still thing that for that to happen BTC has to finish its first massive fall. BTC dominance is dropping quite hard and this only means good for alts.
We have a massive support at $0.50 area so don't be afraid that we will not hold this (red box). It is very possible at that point that even $0.60 will not get revisited anymore, but somewhere close to it like $0.70 can get revisited (yellow box). Breaking above he green price area would mean clear skies ahead for XRP, but before this happens we must see what btc will do first.
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
BINANCE:XRPUSDT
Trading Roadmap for 2022Happy New Year to everybody.
Here is my roadmap for financial year 2022. It is simplified version but generally it says everything about what to do.
Plan:
Everything starts from the plan. It is very hard to navigate financial markets without it. As markets move constantly it's very easy to get lost
or become controlled by emotions (fear and greed for example). The trade plan is a tool that helps us. It takes some market knowledge and experience
to develop a good plan and then discipline is needed to follow it. Also sometimes there is a need to modify the plan when conditions change drastically.
Wait:
Patience is essential part of good trading/investing. If you miss some opportunities then calmly wait for another ones - they are always coming.
Execute:
Do what you have previously planned. It is a trade management - also important part of trading. You can be right with timing but without
trade management you could easily see all your 'paper profits' disappear. On the other hand you can be dead wrong with timing but with proper management
it is possible to squeeze more out of that trade than from previously mentioned example.
Accept Results :
Probably hardest part to deal with when things are not going well. People just don't like to lose money but this is part of the game. I always try to think
about it as cost of doing business or the amount of money I need to spend to make myself available for the winning trades.
More info about how to deal with the losses can be found from my earlier posts:
Trading in the Zone
Trading in the Zone 2
Accepting results happily takes some practicing :)
Learn:
Making screenshots from your past trades is best option how to learn. It is also essential part of 'Journaling'. I like to save all my trades with real-time
notes and comments - and then later analyse them.
Repeat:
Becoming good at something in this life requires work and practice. Trading is no different. So process starts all over again - enjoy.
I wish you all the best for upcoming year.
Cheers :)
USD/CAD Price Action AnalysisDisclaimer:
Any of the content presented on my page showing my analysis of the market is just that, an analysis which means this is my personal opinion of where the price is going to go. Do not by any means take this simple analysis for a reason to enter a trade, I am not presenting these analyses as a form of signals, simply a way to get feedback and opinions from others on how my trades look. Take this trade at your own risk, but know forex is a risky market that you can make a lot of money but can lose that money or even more just as fast, enter these markets with your own risk and good luck with your trading :).
Weekly Analysis:
In the previous few months price had been in a major down trend and there really has not been much rejection on this move downwards. There were a few pullbacks throughout this down move but, price had always shown who had more momentum, in this scenario the bears had more. You can see every time there was a pullback there was always a quick bearish move following closely after, this just confirms our theory of the bears being in control throughout that move. In the more recent few months, price has started to try and make a move to the upside with not too much success as of right now. Price had made a big bounce recently but has had a hard time breaking this 1.29100 area, but price is approaching this area again. We can see a big break of this zone and a big continuation move, but we would need to see more confirmation on lower time frames before thinking of taking a trade on this pair.
Daily Analysis:
On the Daily time frame, what I decided to do to make it a little easier to read is make the Daily zones marked in Red. This might help when trying to read the zone and trying to look further into the analysis. Even on the Daily timeframe you are able to see somewhat of a uptrend beginning to form, price is making higher highs and higher lows, except on December 7 where price had a big drop and closed below the most recent low. What leads me to believe that there is more momentum for the bulls and price might continue on after breaking this top zone is the fact that price had shot up instantly after this drop. Since that bounce we have had one test of the 1.29190 area which showed some rejection to the topside and left behind a big wick, but on December 17 price had a very convincing bullish engulfing candle. This shows that there is a lot of momentum for the bulls right now and price might try to make a break of this top weekly (black area).
Hourly Analysis:
On the Hourly time frame we can see price starting to break through this top zone after already breaking through the red daily zone. But, price is looking like it is having a hard time while trying to break it, it is already showing some weakness to the top side, but we can wait for a few more hours to show what price really wants to do and we can take a trade in the near future. As of right now, there is nothing to take and if we do take one right now, it will be really risky and might not make sense for some trading systems. I am going to wait for more confirmation and see what price wants to do if it decides to break this zone.
Thanks Again,
KeySlot