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Patience

The Level is Good Until it's Not (A Lesson in Supply and Demand)G'day, Traders! Despite wars and rumors of wars there are always opportunities to be had in the financial markets, particularly the Energies markets.  The purpose of today's trade example is to demonstrate that once a level of Supply and Demand are created in the financial markets, the rule of thumb is that a level is "good" until they are not... that is, until all the unfilled orders inside them are processed. No matter how old a level may be, they do not go "stale".  Let's look at a trade which closed in the opening minutes of the market at 6PM EST on Sunday March 27, 2022: A long opportunity became available to us on the 4-hour chart on Crude Oil Futures in the wee morning hours of Wednesday, March 5 (2:36am to be exact!). That morning (after having the required coffee and bacon as part of one's trading routine) there was plenty of time to evaluate the trade setup using Supply and Demand analysis. When a trade like this appears and meets your rules-based qualification system, you can then give yourself permission to take the trade. The destination (a.k.a, Target) needs to be an opposing level of qualified Supply. The interesting part, and hence the jist of this article, is that no matter how old a level is, "a level is good until it is not." The level of Supply identified was from July of 2008 – almost 14 years ago! It is treasure chest full of sell orders that was created in 2008 and hasn't been touched since! As you can see from the chart, price entered that Target level and ricocheted right away like a cat on a hot stove! If you drill down to the 1-minute chart you can see that price stayed at that level for a full two minutes until all the Buy Orders were exhausted and the sellers were back in control, driving price back down. When trading via Supply and Demand, don't worry about how old a level is... if it meets your criteria of being a quality level, take it! As always, Trade Well!
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by ocaptain
The Beast - Here Again 1 week later - can we break?Now this is definitely junction zone! IF WE FAIL TO BREAK THE CURRENT RESISTANCE THEN WE WILL COULD BE SHORT FOR A BIT Please try not to go long from here if you are not already in and if you do, expect lots of stop outs so may be best to scalp. We have Crude oil Inventories today,this is due to be used for some manipulation today. If like us, anyone is still holding anything from 24th ($82) and 25th Jan ($83) then good on you! We will let ours run and move Stop losses to 85.5 for any shock drops. Although there is a big chance of a retracement,we may still be on course for what the target was on 190122. That is 88.03 as the top of the next box suggests. When we get there it will be interesting to see what happens. If we do get a strong retracement from these levels or indeed the beginning of "the short," We will be looking at 83.7-9 for a bounce or the resumption of the Bullish movement. We have a 4 hour close in the box above so if we see some more Blue,it will be extra Bullish confirmation for us. We can expect a reaction from there 88.3 (if it can get there) which will either see a sharp rejection or an over extension to get some more of the Red Vector candles from October 2014. Remember this Beast could actually get to $92/$93 in the next few weeks if whats going on with Russia affects as well as other factors cause it to blasts past certain resistances above. 88.3 is a very important level if it can get there so be careful. Goodluck guys! This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt!
TVC:USOILLong
by Squeeezy-Trader
Oil Corrective Price Action ContinuesThe large descending (often bullish) channel in blue continues to suggest that Oil will continue to challenge the above prices. The weekly chart (not shown here) suggests that the trend is getting weaker with the print of TWO LARGE DOJI candles. This does not inspire confidence to buy this and better to just wait for confirmation. The plan continues to be that 93.23 area is where this will turn back down. Nothing to me indicates that this will head higher than that target and if we take in to account the weekly candle patterns that it might not even make it there. For now we just wait on oil to do it's thing.
TVC:USOIL
by Sinex
1
Patience is the only move to make for now. ⚠️Alright team, nasty action from the $TICKs all morning, as the selling pressure isn’t easing up here. $SPY is trying to hold support around $425, which will be a key level to hold here to avoid even more downside ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. 🔴 In a perfect world, things will hold support here and bounce later in the week, at which point we’d look to aggressively short in the indexes. 🔴 We have seen that once an index gets to 4% down, limit down becomes a magnet!! 🔴 My Market screener is showing RED all over. I am basically using three copies of my custom indicator and looking for momentum, trend scoring and UDV volume markers. 🔴 VIX is over the healthy limits for entering trades here. Cash is king. The screener includes market breadth and long term trend indicators on the bottom. If they are squished, just stretch the screen.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TintinTrading
Since the shorts scalpsSo its been an interesting week in Gold and it's great to see the Vector candles doing their job in the hourly and 4 hourly. We were done with the short scalps at 1810 and caught a sniper long entry at 1805.88 where a Green Vector candle was to be recovered by red which flipped and turned green. We pulled out majority at 1823 but re-entered more longs for the rest of the journey to 1837. It blasted past 1830-1835. Due to Green Vector recovering Red Vector from 221121 (top 1838.8) on 190122 and approaching the top of the box and some of our short entry prices (1845/1848) on 200122, we started on the short scalps again. As well as potentially a meaningful short to the bottom of the box as there is more Green Vectors below. We are experienced enough on Gold to know it can carry on long also at anytime as there are Red Vectors above too. But we are more leaning bearish at the moment and are looking to cut any long scalps at 1841-43 where the nearest and most recent Red Vector candle is. Unless of course we see Blue in the recovery of Reds at these most recent highs. If the short plays out from here, apart from the most recent Green Vector candles that manipulated us up to these levels down at 1822, 1810, 1805, the juicy Green Vector candle down at 1765 (Wick bottom 1753) looks like a nice place to aim for. The next levels where Green Vector candles exist are down at 1740, 1730, 1720 and of course our ultimate short target to fill the Rogue wick from last August (1668-1680) will be our super extended short targets. The next Red above is as follows: First contact 1850, body top 1860 wick top 1866. Thereafter we're looking at a Candle at 1870 and 1874 from 161121. Always be prepared for a potential 200-300 pip override to the upside before the actual drop but that whole area is a mega short waiting to happen. But until we have meaningful Bullish confirmation we will long scalp and hold the short from 1847.5. Progress check! 22 trades since 11th Jan 13 shorts 10 50-90 pip scalps (3 x 100+ pips) 9 longs 7 50-90 scalps (2 x 150+ pips) 21 wins 1 loss 1 Short running 1 long scalp running Good luck guys! This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Squeeezy-Trader
BTC WEEKLY ANALYSIS "Patience is not passive, on the contrary, it is concentrated strength" - Bruce Lee With many people growing frustrated that BTC continues to hover around $40k as we approach the end of January 2022, it's a good time to remember that PATIENCE is a VIRTUE, and good things come to those who wait! During times like these it's important to remember a saying which I live by: WHEN IN DOUBT, JUST ZOOM OUT! By zooming out and looking at the BTC price history on the WEEKLY view, you can clearly see the two distinct triangles that have formed over time. Although we are still waiting on a breakout of the 2nd triangle, if the first triangle is any indication, we are on the verge of a powerful upwards move. Stay Patient My Friends. It's coming.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by SkinnyMike3
Short scalps Done?So it's been a couple of days (4) and we had to wait a while for the 170 pip move from 1828 but added a beautiful short scalp yesterday from 1822. Our target from our last idea we was holding out for was 1810 and woke up to some good news. The idea of capitalising on scalps while we wait for the big move - whatever direction it will be in -has definitely done us some good. We cannot help but notice however that something big is coming and they will try and use some news this week to be the catalyst. Keep a close eye from Wednesday onwards when Dollar news comes out (all manipulation) Progress check: 8 short scalps 3 long scalps With one of them being 170 pips and one being 110 pips I guess they were slightly more than scalps but 930 pips in total in scalps since Jan 11th isn't too bad is it. We would definitely say it beats just waiting around. Now what are we looking out for? There is a Green Vector (Bottom 1805) candle below to be recovered in the hourly timeframe and we can expect at least a bounce from there if not a meaningful long but we are pretty much done for now until Wednesday when there is news that they can use to manipulate the market. Keep Short scalps short and sweet until they become "the" short and hold longs from the best prices back to your short entries. Good luck guys! This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Squeeezy-Trader
2
USDCAD What do you see on UC? There are different scenarios currently running on this pair, I would really just be patient until the daily close confirms our bias. With the weakness of USD it is very hard to conclude that we can go with a bullish rally. On the other hand, our confluences are committed to our plan. We just wait patiently for our daily candle close to decide our positioning for next week. HAVE A NICE WEEKEND, DON'T FORGET TO BACKTEST YOUR STRATEGY AND EVALUATE YOUR PERFORMANCE.
by sifisoartist
Dangerous times WTIWe are at a funny little junction right now! In one of our recent 1HR TF ideas ("Like clockwork tight $1.....") we spoke of a characteristic of Oil that is important to know when trying to catch shorts. That is, when Oil gives $2.60 in shorts it means one of 2 things, either it is showing the beginning of a big drop or it would be a bear trap like the many before it and it would probably rise double the distance of the fall to make a new high. At the time of posting that, we were already on the Bull Bus and had $1 in the bag, then caught a juicy $1 dollar short from $80-$79 while letting the longs run. but eventually closed the last of those longs (77.8) at $80.8, while allowing partial buy stop longs from 79 (straight after $1 short scalp) where Red Vector recovered Green Vectors at 2pm. (110122) We got out as of Asian session at 81.3 because where we are is too dangerous for a time of no volume. A $3.80 journey from the low is not bad, even if we didn't get to be in for all of it. However We cannot see it doing $3.80 up and calling it a day, It probably wants to do a bit more but where the hourly is concerned,it may do some dipping before resuming (hopefully activate some sell stops) so we have to be very careful. Stay disciplined on the short scalps and always be ready to stay long from good buy prices but close shorts quickly when the Bull is in the room. One of these short scalps will end up turning into "the" short We will see what we wake up to This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
TVC:USOIL
by Squeeezy-Trader
Naughty Market Maker - Beware Green manipulation on hourlySorry TVC USOIL guys had to use this chart to show how naughty the set up is THIS IS A SHORT TERM LONG IDEA- it will drop when they have unlocked their funds from Red Vector candles at the highs Keeping this one short and sweet We hope. So it's no secret we stopped being aggressively Bearish when we failed to hit the next Green Vector candle below. (77.74) We was talking something about doing (rising) double (it may do more) the fall in a rise to a new high. Well if $2.60 (260 pips) was the drop, $5.20 (520 pips) up from the low would put us up at $83 a barrel which we are very close to. We got out after a measly $3 and its now done $4.70. (sad face) but we made up for it slightly with two $0.50 long scalps (hold one more as far as it can go) The issue Bears have is we have a Green Likely to turn Blue at the top recovering the Big Red from 101121 and if it closes that way we can actually, really, unbelievably, ridiculously, genuinely be on the way to £90. Although $84.45 is a more realistic unrealistic target. Praying for it to turn purple and take us down. But until we see purple or They realise some more of their short in This Giant Red Vector candle we are in long scalps with our targets all the lines associated to That Red Vector candle from 101121. Look out for a drop though and have sell stops ready at all times Good luck guys! This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by Squeeezy-Trader
Short taking longer than planned - got all the time in the world2 of our sell prices gave us good sell scalps. Well 80 pips and 60 pips isn't anything special on Gold to most people. We tell you it definitely is something when you are counter trend/sentiment trading. 1823 gave us 80 pips and 1825 gave us the 60. Now what we do not like is the fact there is another Blue Vector on the 4HR. All be it at the top where it can act as a volume stopper as seen on the 5th Jan. It was really the Purple candle that gave us more confirmation to execute the sell. Blues at lows tend to be the ones that give near instant gratification when going long. With all of that being said, we are sure any and everyone that actually knows how to trade Gold will be more than aware of the fact that "the" sell has a chance of taking place from a higher price and that is why you must know where you can take short scalps and when to close them quick. But the sell that began from the Thur 16th Nov actually started developing from the Wed 10th Nov and it went up all together another 200 pips that week after recovering the Red Vector With a Green one. The one in June went up another 203 pips after recovering a Red Vector with a Green Vector on 25th May before dropping on June 1st so we need to bear that in mind. It is definitely not a coincidence We are sticking to our guns and looking for shorts at key levels: now 1827, 1830, 1834, 1846, 1860 (By all means happy to long scalp to the furthest of these levels if conditions are right) if it can get to them, and we will be looking for a Big red Vector recovering a Big Green vector below to join longs to these higher prices if that happens. But until then we are constantly Short scalping until we see Blue lower (up signal) or our short scalps become "the" short Good luck guys! This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Squeeezy-Trader
New short cookingYes It's been Bullish and it feels great when you're in buys on Gold and it's bullish. We came out of our longs at 1804 so we missed out today on longs. But we got something better instead, an indication that a short is coming. Green Vector has made contact with Red Vector in the 4HR timeframe. There is definitely some of the Red Vector to go but we are approaching psychological levels 1820,23,25 and 30 and this means they can drop it like its hot at any point. Be ready to come out of longs and get into shorts and look out for sniper entries at those levels for juicy shorts. If they don't work out then we just try again from higher, but the bottom line is Gold wants to go and fill that rogue wick at some point (1670). It will definitely be great to be in from the best possible price for the ride. sometimes you have to be entering while everyone else speculates and sometimes you have to sit on your hands and wait for the right triggers Good luck Guys! This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Squeeezy-Trader
2