Get started

Patience

Potential Opportunity - Patience PaysPreviously I wrote a brief note explaining caution for the US Banking industry as illustrated by XLF. This is due to: - market risk of a broader market pullback - as currently being experienced - impact from Covid-19 variants like Delta etc., - the cumulation of record high bank reserves (cash) which serve to stress Bank Capital and Capital adequacy ratios. These reserves have been building up due to the FED's policy of buying Bonds in the market. Once sold, the vendor banks cash at a Bank which severs to increase the Bank's liabilities. The FED has tried to mitigate this effect by using reverse repos - which is ridiculous - it should stop the buying / QE ie the naughty word - Taper!!! :) The opportunity to be long includes: - market risk subsides as debt ceiling is mitigated. - infrastructure bill goes through which is GDP positive. - further recovering of the US and European economies noting n increased travel facilitated by increased vaccination rates. - Bank capital being strong as it is, has seen some Banks start to sell assets which have a lower capital rating (for the purposes of capital measurement) and will eventually open the door to strong lending programmes noting the prior comment. - still good fiscal support - so economy, GDP and the broader market is growing. In other words a decent credit cycle may ensue which will be very positive for Banks and of course XLF. However - Patience Pays!!! Buying in smalls around key support areas and build a position - no 'binary' trading.
AMEX:XLF
by Adam-Cox
The Reasons We Follow An Algorithmic-Systematic Approach To All We have been trading and investing in markets for decades since the early 1980s. Experienced and successful traders and market participants tend to remember their losses and mistakes instead of victories. Profits feed the ego; losses are teachers for those who realize that valuable lessons come from adversity instead of triumph. Everyone has an opinion- The only objective measure is the current price The trend is your only friend- News, experts, and all other information are subjective Trading and investing can be stressful A plan and discipline are the building blocks for success You have to be in to win- Drawdowns are a part of any trading or investing system A batting average of .300 is good enough to get a professional baseball player into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York. Each time a future hall of Famer steps up to the plate, a success rate of below 30% is good enough for infamy. Trading and investing are similar. No one is correct in their market calls all of the time. When approaching any market, there are always three potential outcomes, a profit, a loss, or a breakeven. The success rate of calling a market correctly takes a back seat to other factors. We have seen market participants who have had the foresight to call the market correctly 75% of the time and still wind up losing money. Conversely, a seasoned trader can be right 20% of the time and still make an overall profit. I usually write about specific markets on Trading View, but it is essential to look at the methodology, mindset, and path to growing capital over time this week. We follow an algorithmic-systematic approach to trading and investing. Our models come from decades of experience and the knowledge gained from mistakes that led to losses. We all have the same goal; to make money and grow our capital. The route to achieving the goal is what separates the winners from the losers. Everyone has an opinion- The only objective measure is the current price I am sure we have all heard an “expert” or pundit tell us that the current price of an asset is wrong. They may provide many compelling and convincing reasons, but they are 100% wrong when challenging a price level. An asset price at any moment in time is always the correct price for one objective reason. It is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment, the market. The “experts” and pundits take a subjective leap of faith when using the terms expensive or cheap. Too many variables establish a price. The only accurate measure of value is the current price itself. The trend is your only friend- News, experts, and all other information are subjective Prices are snapshots. Trends are the living and breathing extension of price action. Many market participants become junkies, watching each news event, “expert” forecast, and other exogenous events that could push asset prices higher or lower. They make investment or trading decisions based on what they hear and see. The approach is flawed for three significant reasons: Trading off what one sees and hears is stale before it reaches our ears and eyes. Others have seen the news or forecast before us, and some had seen it before it appeared on a medium for all to see. The translation of an event, forecast, or news item is purely subjective as it assumes, we will make a correct analysis. The expression “buy the rumor and sell the news” or the converse runs counter to even the most complete analytical decision-making approach. Finally, reacting to any stimulus involves a primary human response, emotion. Emotions are a trader or investor’s worst enemy. They trigger responses and decisions based on fear and greed, a deadly duo that increases the chances of mistakes, miscalculations, and irrational behavior. A market’s trend is purely objective as it reflects the path of least resistance of a price based on market consensus and sentiment. Prices tend to move to levels on the upside and downside that can defy logic, run counter to reason and are not rational. Trend following blocks out logic, reason, and rational thought and favors one of the leading theories of physics. Newton’s first law states that a body at rest will remain at rest unless an outside force acts on it, and a body in motion at a constant velocity will remain in motion in a straight line unless acted upon by an external force. Trend following embodies Newton’s first law of physics. Asset prices reflect the market’s sentiment, which is the inertia that drives those prices. If Sir Isaac Newton were a modern-day trader or investor, his mantra would be the trend is your only friend as it is compatible with his first law. The physical sciences are objective. Trading and investing can be stressful We have found that decision-making creates stress. When we buy or sell an asset based on anything but the market’s trend, we make a subjective judgment. The attempt to buy at the bottom or sell at the top is a value judgment that runs counter to logic as it implies the sentiment and current prices are incorrect, a fatal flaw. Sometimes some market participants get lucky, but that only reinforces a strategy that leads to future mistakes. Picking tops or bottoms in a market is a strategy that rewards the ego as it gratifies that one called the market correctly. However, ego and vanity lead us down a dangerous path. In the 1997 film, The Devil’s Advocate, Al Pacino, the actor who played Satan, said, “Vanity-definitely my favorite sin.” Reducing stress comes from following the path of least resistance. We use an algorithmic, systematic approach to trading based on models that remain long during a bullish trend and short during a bearish one. We never miss a significant trend as we are constantly long or short the assets in our portfolio. We do not adjust our risk positions on an intra-day basis. We only reverse risk positions based on closing prices at the end of a session and execute the position at the start of the next session. Our proprietary models come from decades of trading and investing experience in a wide range of markets across all asset classes. We never look to sell tops or buy bottoms. We are long at the top and short at the bottom. However, we tend to capture significant trends, taking the filet mignon out of price trends. We have found that our mechanical approach, with a better than even-money win rate, reduces stress as it takes any decision-making out of the equation. The only job is to follow the rules, always remaining in the markets on the long or short side and reversing positions based on the model’s instructions. A plan and discipline are the building blocks for success Emotions lead to impulsive behavior. Acting on impulse leaves little or no time for planning and throws discipline out of the window. Albert Einstein said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. Impulsive decision-making is the root of Einstein’s insanity definition. Any risk position in any market must have a plan, which is simply balancing the financial risk versus the potential reward. Before pressing the buy or sell button, we must establish risk parameters for trades or investments when not following an algorithmic approach. The discipline is following the plan. Many market participants run into problems when a risk position goes against them, and they have no plan for risk and reward, or they modify it to allow them to stick with a wrong decision. Turning a short-term trade into a long-term investment is a common mistake. The mistake comes from a subjective call that the market price is incorrect. A way to prevent this is to remind yourself that the market price is always the correct price. We are often wrong; the market is never wrong. You have to be in to win- Drawdowns are a part of any trading or investing system We are constantly long or short the highly liquid assets in our investment portfolio because we never know when a significant trend will begin. Being in a risk position that follows trends is the only way to catch the bulk of a bullish or bearish trend. Drawdowns or losses are a part of life and any trading or investment approach. A choppy market near the high or low end of a trend will result in short-term losses. However, that is the price for capturing the long-term trend. There is no free lunch in life, and the same goes for trading and investing. The goal is always the same for every market participant, to make money over time and build wealth and our nest eggs. The strategy is what separates winners from losers. We take a long-term systematic approach and do not veer from the path. We know that drawdowns are a part of any investment or trading approach. We are in it to win it on a long-term basis. Join us for the Monday Night Call each week - all you have to do is use the link below. There's also a link to sign up for early access to these articles as well. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
47
Parabolic Growth - Never Chase Price!Parabolic Growth - A Quick Note Positives parabolic growth rates occur when both Growth is positive , and the Rate of Change is also increasing - the 2nd derivative is increasing in calculus terms. Obviously, the rate of geometric growth can only increase so far, otherwise price change would increase infinitely! Parabolic growth on daily charts and lower time frames eventually gives rise to periods of retracement and/or sideways consolidation. We have seen this in cryptos (BTC 's first major bull run) , many other futures contracts and even stocks. This phenomenon can be identified even in charts going back to the 50s and 60s. Lesson here? - Never chase price! - Wait for a pullback and/or consolidation phase. You don't want to be the noob that buys at the top! - Understanding the phenomenon mitigates the risk of lack of self control and feelings of FOMO.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Adam-Cox
Battleplan & Quickpost on the Hash Ribbon SignalThis idea is pretty straight forward. The hash ribbon traditionally have been a great indicator of when to buy, aside from what the hash ribbon means for the network. But the hash ribbon is not a sign to get silly with margin nor is it a signal that the price will not set another low. The Covid 19 dump and the bear market of 2015 show that prices can get significantly lower after an initial pop. To keep it short and sweet we can see that every time the buy signal flashed BTC was under some chartable resistance on the daily chart. Sometimes after a major smackdown but at other times after a slow burn sell off. Either way that resistance has to be beat before price really gets moving. This is a birds eye view on a quick post, but you can still zoom in and see what I am talking about. Historically the buy signal is a great accumulation signal. Which is great. I am, however, looking to see where I could put some margin on and I don't want to get churned out in the thrash nor do I want to get eaten up by fees. So I am going to be waiting with some cash on the sides for when BTC finally mounts this last trendline. Side note: Typical bull market behavior would see BTCUSD find support on the bottom of the daily keltner channel or Bollinger band. This 4 day pull back also looks like a reasonable place for price to find support if price was to remain bullish. Time will tell
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
2
$LINK: Multi-year pitchfork providing clarityWhat's up frens. We got a REALLY nice reversal here with what looks to be a clear break of the multi year pitchfork prong that has been acting as a SUPER strong level of resistance. - Light Blue arrow: Strong looking V reversal pattern with 2 back to back daily buy signals from True Vibration 2.0 indicator. That' major bullish right there and if you bought that dip? You're up 100% since then. I bought that dip, because I buy every week and DCA like we've been talking about. - Orange arrow: After a strong rally, price action closes well outside the Bollinger bands on the daily. This also coincides directly with the same blue 1.0 deviation pitchfork prong that we talked about above. HUGE S/R line acting as resistance here. - Red arrow: Multiple fakeout dips straight off of that S/R line. Quickly bought up with good volume. One last major dip before the final break through of the trend line. - Green arrow: Clear break above multi year trend line. We'd like to see this daily close well above it, and we'd expect it to be tested? But the weeks of pushing against this resistance trying to break through? Might result in a more explosive move upwards. I'm targeting the next two pitchfork prongs, as they align well with previous major S/R levels. I'd obviously expect it not to be a straight line. We'd like to see it retest and hold at S/R on it's way up. As always though. I'm going to just keep buying and focusing on building as big a stack as I can before Super Linear Staking drives price out of my comfort zone. $LINK will reward patience.
BINANCE:LINKUSDLong
by its_maxbro
Patience Patience Patience...As a trader of 4 years, I learned Many things, but the most important thing I learned was being patience. Patience is by far the hardest thing to achieve because from my point of view, I always wanted to be in the market. The excitement, the blood rush, knowing you can make money quick and fast. That was my psychology. This problem is not only me, but many traders as well. I have spoken to an abundant amount of traders and they always tell me "I can't miss this move" "I want to make money fast" "What if this is the bottom or what if this is the top" "I miss my entry, but I will just go in anyway." "I am bored." "Market not moving" When I started trading back then, I always had these comments imbedded in my mind as well. I always wanted to be in the market, I always wanted to make money fast, etc. But in reality this is not the case. I started to change my mindset of trading when I took a big loss, yes a big loss, not just any loss, a loss that made me learn my lesson. It all started 2 years ago, I was trading a crypto pair. I had my plan set up. I knew where I should long and where I should short. Days pass and the price was nowhere near my area of interest. The feeling of boredom, the feeling of wanting to be in the market, the feeling of "I might miss out" came. So I took the trade. Then the next day happened, boom, I took a loss. I was upset and without being patience enough to wait for the entry, I took another trade because I wanted to get my loss back and I couldn't wait to do so and the result was another loss. This is where it happened, after both losses, I waited for the pair to go to my ideal set up, It took weeks before it did. I wanted to see what would have happened if I just waited. When the pair was in my ideal spot, I took the trade. Days pass and the trade hit my Take profit. That very moment, I knew I had to be patient. As of now, Every Weekend, I mark my areas of interest from daily all the way down to 4 hour or even 1 hour. I have never taken a trade until it hits my area of interest. This made me a better trade. Remember there are many more aspect of trading than just being patience. This is just one of many important key elements of becoming a successful trader!
by OmaOne
10 TIPS TO BECOME A PROFITABLE TRADERThe tips that I am about to give you can completely change your results as a trader and it can help you to start becoming a PROFITABLE TRADER or if you already is a profitable trader it can help you to increase your "win rate". 1 - Never blindly trust in the Moving Averages or any other indicator that you have set in your chart, it only takes a big spike on Bitcoin's price, or a lack of attention of your part to a bigger trend for you to be stoped in your trade. 2 - Always check your Moving Averages and other indicators in different time frames (1H, 4H, 1D, 1W), different time frames tell different stories. 3 - Identify the trend (Up, Down, Consolidation). Always look for the bigger picture. 4 - When all the MA in different time frames are giving you the same direction it's a positive sign for you to trade in the direction of that trend (but that's not the only way to use it and you need to take other indicators in consideration). 5 - DON'T EVER get in a trade just because the price went up or down 10% - 100%, first see the bigger picture (1M, 1W, 1D, 4H), then check your other indicators. Not doing it will make you lose a lot of money (constantly). 6 - Don't "FOMO" is your trades, that will make you lose a lot of money, patience is one of the most important attributes to become a profitable trader. 7 - ALWAYS check the Bitcoin chart before getting in a trade, if Bitcoin is close to a strong support and end up not holding on it and the price goes down it's very likely that other pairs of coins will go down as well. 8 - Don't get in trades that you are not sure about it, it's not worth it, sometimes you maybe right, but in the long term you will not be a profitable trader. 9 - You need to know the "Why" you are getting in that trade, and the "When" (exact moment that you will get in or out of the trade). 10 - You don't need to get into every single trade opportunity that you see, it's better to trade less with more quality trades than to trade a lot but making poor trading decisions. The tips above are simple to understand and to apply and for some can sound really easy and common but unfortunately a lot of Traders are not practicing it or are not aware of it and not following this simple tips can lead you to failure really fast. You will not necessarily become a profitable trader just by following this tips, but learnings and applying this tips is the beginning to a glorious path! I'm using ADA/USDT as an example, the intent is not to predict if the price will go up or not, if the price goes 100% up or down tomorrow it doesn't make any difference. The purpose of the post is to open your eyes to see the big picture of things, to see that sometimes some indicators if not used correctly are not very helpful to our trades, to identify a trend despite the spikes of price, to understand that there are several thinks to be taken in consideration before getting in a trade, is for you to understand that patience is a key aspect to our success. My desire is that you understand that you need to be meticulous in all your analysis, trade less, win more.
Education
by ClubCryptoTraders
1
HUGE opportunity on MATIC/USDTI understand that we are in a moment of uncertainty, so I'm gonna introduce two points of view, for the ones that are Bullish or Bearish on MATIC and I will explain why I am "long" on this trade no matter the trend (bullish or bearish). For my Bullish friends: - I traced Fibonacci from the lowest point in April at $0.25 right before the bullish momentum that took MATIC to $2.70. - I took the EMA 200 in consideration to determine the trend (slightly up). - The 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement ($0.25 to $2.70) is at $0.78. - Using previous Supports & Resistances I determined my buying zone between $0.68 to $0.78 - The RSI indicator is at one of the lowest areas in months. - The last reason is that MATIC is an amazing project and still has a lot to bring to the "crypto world"!! For my Bearish friends: - I used the EMA 200 and a previous area of Support ($0.74 and $0.68) as a prediction of where the price will fall. - Based on that I traced our Fibonacci from $1.71 to $0.74, if we were to keep a down trend the Retracement would probably take us to something between $1.10 to $1.33 ___________ Conclusion: If the market shows itself on a Bearish trend and we have a "common" retracement to the Fibo 0.382 zone (around $1.10) we will be looking in a 50% increase on the price from $0.74 to $1.10 and if it the market tried the 0.618 we would be looking on a 80% increase on the price. If the market shows itself on a Bullish trend we could easily be looking to more than 100% increase in the price of MATIC. This will be a long trade doesn't matter if it will be Bullish or Bearish, it can take several days or weeks, but I'm confident on massive gains on this one! Personally I see this moment as a huge opportunity to buy MATIC, both as a trader and as a holder. ___________ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The only purpose of this post is to share an idea and to talk about it. Always remember do your own research!
MLong
by ClubCryptoTraders
US30 ABCD CompleteAfter hitting all of our targets we're now expecting a pullback and the trend to potentially reverse now previous structure is broken. We now have a bullish ABCD completion, however, I'm not going to enter when the markets open, I'm going to watch the price action to see how it reacts to the current level/the fib levels, if price rejects from the 318 and gives us a reversal confirmation then we will short again next week and go with my trend Bias. I may also look for buys on the pullback if we get confirmation at current level, but unless I get retest/candlestick confirmation I wont enter quick buys I'll be patient and wait for price to react from the Fib before taking shorts.
U
by benalistarfx
BITCOIN | Be Patient, You Will Get Rewarded!Hi, I'm still here, just waiting, waiting and waiting, and trying to be patient. Every day it looks a bit harder but what we can do, that's the life of traders/investors. To be said, I have been quite quiet because the price of Bitcoin doesn't make sense to me, it makes some pumps and dumps just in the middle of nowhere. So, if you have tried to trade in recent weeks then probably your account is a bit smaller than before, if not KUDOS! Not any significant signs to break either way. The price is held by Weekly 50EMA. As you can see it has held it for several weeks. Tried to go down, failed. Tried to go up, failed. Even writing about it sounds like - small fake-out here and fake-out there. As said, I have been quiet because for me, the current price action is just a game. I'll wait for the key levels. What are the key areas from where I'll start to look at charts more carefully? Firstly I would like to talk about the bullish scenario/breakout opportunity. For me, it looks like the short-term, or even the mid-term bearish pressure/sideways movement should find its end after we have seen a strong bullish Daily candle close above $41k. The price action needs to be good but in general, this is the level from where I want to look at what the altcoins do. Do they have the breakout opportunities, how strong they are and etc. Hopefully, I can do the analysis of the TOP10 mentioned altcoins soon enough ;) So, the breakout opportunity is locked. If the breakout happens then how high we can go 50k? I don't know. $60? I don't know. New ATH? I don't know! The only thing I can see is that the short-term we can catch something. Now the ugly part of the game. The 20k. Yes, there are quite a high odds that we can see these lower prices - 16k to 21k. If you see that the price of BTC is that low then buy whatever you can. Simple, you just have to be brave to buy from the bloody streets. In Investing, What Is Comfortable Is Rarely Profitable! Summary: Two options: firstly, waiting for a break above 41k, I'm starting to look at breakout opportunities from altcoins and carefully trying to catch some moves. Secondly, waiting for a 20k to buy whatever I want! Be patient and you will get rewarded after it! Regards, Vaido
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VaidoVeek
42
GNW Beautiful Triangle!Hello Community! When looking at GNW we can see it clearly trading in a triangle on the weekly TF. We need to pay close attention to this pattern and watch to see how it reacts to the trendlines shown. Overall, this is usually a bearish setup but anything can happen in the trading world. Based on the technical indicators, it's looking bearish for the next week or two. The MACD is beginning to tick towards the red and the RSI is forming a lower high. I can see a retest of the lower trendline in the near future, which would be a great place to start a long with a tight stop-loss. If entering a trade don't forget to use a stop-loss. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and comment. It'll be greatly appreciated! This is not financial advice. Safe Trading. Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! Simplicity Wins (:
NYSE:GNW
by rnaofs
1
AMZN need only time to grow even moreShort-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation. Although Amazon's revenue and EPS have benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich. COVID Beneficiary Amazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This is Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it acquired Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated "only" $48 billion in revenue. The company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by TradeandGrow