Parabolic Growth - Never Chase Price!Parabolic Growth - A Quick Note
Positives parabolic growth rates occur when both Growth is positive , and the Rate of Change is also increasing - the 2nd derivative is increasing in calculus terms. Obviously, the rate of geometric growth can only increase so far, otherwise price change would increase infinitely!
Parabolic growth on daily charts and lower time frames eventually gives rise to periods of retracement and/or sideways consolidation. We have seen this in cryptos (BTC 's first major bull run) , many other futures contracts and even stocks. This phenomenon can be identified even in charts going back to the 50s and 60s.
Lesson here?
- Never chase price!
- Wait for a pullback and/or consolidation phase. You don't want to be the noob that buys at the top!
- Understanding the phenomenon mitigates the risk of lack of self control and feelings of FOMO.
Patience
cad/jpy good short position cad jpy was in bearish momentum and went down to the 84.400 very strong demand level and cane back to 87.100 for a retest
look for bearish confirmation on lower time frame and enter short with your own money management
always remeber patience with discipline and money management is the key to success
Battleplan & Quickpost on the Hash Ribbon SignalThis idea is pretty straight forward. The hash ribbon traditionally have been a great indicator of when to buy, aside from what the hash ribbon means for the network. But the hash ribbon is not a sign to get silly with margin nor is it a signal that the price will not set another low. The Covid 19 dump and the bear market of 2015 show that prices can get significantly lower after an initial pop.
To keep it short and sweet we can see that every time the buy signal flashed BTC was under some chartable resistance on the daily chart. Sometimes after a major smackdown but at other times after a slow burn sell off. Either way that resistance has to be beat before price really gets moving. This is a birds eye view on a quick post, but you can still zoom in and see what I am talking about.
Historically the buy signal is a great accumulation signal. Which is great. I am, however, looking to see where I could put some margin on and I don't want to get churned out in the thrash nor do I want to get eaten up by fees. So I am going to be waiting with some cash on the sides for when BTC finally mounts this last trendline.
Side note: Typical bull market behavior would see BTCUSD find support on the bottom of the daily keltner channel or Bollinger band. This 4 day pull back also looks like a reasonable place for price to find support if price was to remain bullish. Time will tell
$LINK: Multi-year pitchfork providing clarityWhat's up frens. We got a REALLY nice reversal here with what looks to be a clear break of the multi year pitchfork prong that has been acting as a SUPER strong level of resistance.
- Light Blue arrow: Strong looking V reversal pattern with 2 back to back daily buy signals from True Vibration 2.0 indicator. That' major bullish right there and if you bought that dip? You're up 100% since then. I bought that dip, because I buy every week and DCA like we've been talking about.
- Orange arrow: After a strong rally, price action closes well outside the Bollinger bands on the daily. This also coincides directly with the same blue 1.0 deviation pitchfork prong that we talked about above. HUGE S/R line acting as resistance here.
- Red arrow: Multiple fakeout dips straight off of that S/R line. Quickly bought up with good volume. One last major dip before the final break through of the trend line.
- Green arrow: Clear break above multi year trend line. We'd like to see this daily close well above it, and we'd expect it to be tested? But the weeks of pushing against this resistance trying to break through? Might result in a more explosive move upwards.
I'm targeting the next two pitchfork prongs, as they align well with previous major S/R levels. I'd obviously expect it not to be a straight line. We'd like to see it retest and hold at S/R on it's way up.
As always though. I'm going to just keep buying and focusing on building as big a stack as I can before Super Linear Staking drives price out of my comfort zone.
$LINK will reward patience.
Patience Patience Patience...As a trader of 4 years, I learned Many things, but the most important thing I learned was being patience. Patience is by far the hardest thing to achieve because from my point of view, I always wanted to be in the market. The excitement, the blood rush, knowing you can make money quick and fast. That was my psychology. This problem is not only me, but many traders as well. I have spoken to an abundant amount of traders and they always tell me
"I can't miss this move"
"I want to make money fast"
"What if this is the bottom or what if this is the top"
"I miss my entry, but I will just go in anyway."
"I am bored."
"Market not moving"
When I started trading back then, I always had these comments imbedded in my mind as well. I always wanted to be in the market, I always wanted to make money fast, etc. But in reality this is not the case. I started to change my mindset of trading when I took a big loss, yes a big loss, not just any loss, a loss that made me learn my lesson.
It all started 2 years ago, I was trading a crypto pair. I had my plan set up. I knew where I should long and where I should short. Days pass and the price was nowhere near my area of interest. The feeling of boredom, the feeling of wanting to be in the market, the feeling of "I might miss out" came. So I took the trade. Then the next day happened, boom, I took a loss. I was upset and without being patience enough to wait for the entry, I took another trade because I wanted to get my loss back and I couldn't wait to do so and the result was another loss. This is where it happened, after both losses, I waited for the pair to go to my ideal set up, It took weeks before it did. I wanted to see what would have happened if I just waited. When the pair was in my ideal spot, I took the trade. Days pass and the trade hit my Take profit. That very moment, I knew I had to be patient.
As of now, Every Weekend, I mark my areas of interest from daily all the way down to 4 hour or even 1 hour. I have never taken a trade until it hits my area of interest. This made me a better trade.
Remember there are many more aspect of trading than just being patience. This is just one of many important key elements of becoming a successful trader!
10 TIPS TO BECOME A PROFITABLE TRADERThe tips that I am about to give you can completely change your results as a trader and it can help you to start becoming a PROFITABLE TRADER or if you already is a profitable trader it can help you to increase your "win rate".
1 - Never blindly trust in the Moving Averages or any other indicator that you have set in your chart, it only takes a big spike on Bitcoin's price, or a lack of attention of your part to a bigger trend for you to be stoped in your trade.
2 - Always check your Moving Averages and other indicators in different time frames (1H, 4H, 1D, 1W), different time frames tell different stories.
3 - Identify the trend (Up, Down, Consolidation). Always look for the bigger picture.
4 - When all the MA in different time frames are giving you the same direction it's a positive sign for you to trade in the direction of that trend (but that's not the only way to use it and you need to take other indicators in consideration).
5 - DON'T EVER get in a trade just because the price went up or down 10% - 100%, first see the bigger picture (1M, 1W, 1D, 4H), then check your other indicators. Not doing it will make you lose a lot of money (constantly).
6 - Don't "FOMO" is your trades, that will make you lose a lot of money, patience is one of the most important attributes to become a profitable trader.
7 - ALWAYS check the Bitcoin chart before getting in a trade, if Bitcoin is close to a strong support and end up not holding on it and the price goes down it's very likely that other pairs of coins will go down as well.
8 - Don't get in trades that you are not sure about it, it's not worth it, sometimes you maybe right, but in the long term you will not be a profitable trader.
9 - You need to know the "Why" you are getting in that trade, and the "When" (exact moment that you will get in or out of the trade).
10 - You don't need to get into every single trade opportunity that you see, it's better to trade less with more quality trades than to trade a lot but making poor trading decisions.
The tips above are simple to understand and to apply and for some can sound really easy and common but unfortunately a lot of Traders are not practicing it or are not aware of it and not following this simple tips can lead you to failure really fast.
You will not necessarily become a profitable trader just by following this tips, but learnings and applying this tips is the beginning to a glorious path!
I'm using ADA/USDT as an example, the intent is not to predict if the price will go up or not, if the price goes 100% up or down tomorrow it doesn't make any difference. The purpose of the post is to open your eyes to see the big picture of things, to see that sometimes some indicators if not used correctly are not very helpful to our trades, to identify a trend despite the spikes of price, to understand that there are several thinks to be taken in consideration before getting in a trade, is for you to understand that patience is a key aspect to our success. My desire is that you understand that you need to be meticulous in all your analysis, trade less, win more.
HUGE opportunity on MATIC/USDTI understand that we are in a moment of uncertainty, so I'm gonna introduce two points of view, for the ones that are Bullish or Bearish on MATIC and I will explain why I am "long" on this trade no matter the trend (bullish or bearish).
For my Bullish friends:
- I traced Fibonacci from the lowest point in April at $0.25 right before the bullish momentum that took MATIC to $2.70.
- I took the EMA 200 in consideration to determine the trend (slightly up).
- The 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement ($0.25 to $2.70) is at $0.78.
- Using previous Supports & Resistances I determined my buying zone between $0.68 to $0.78
- The RSI indicator is at one of the lowest areas in months.
- The last reason is that MATIC is an amazing project and still has a lot to bring to the "crypto world"!!
For my Bearish friends:
- I used the EMA 200 and a previous area of Support ($0.74 and $0.68) as a prediction of where the price will fall.
- Based on that I traced our Fibonacci from $1.71 to $0.74, if we were to keep a down trend the Retracement would probably take us to something between $1.10 to $1.33
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Conclusion:
If the market shows itself on a Bearish trend and we have a "common" retracement to the Fibo 0.382 zone (around $1.10) we will be looking in a 50% increase on the price from $0.74 to $1.10 and if it the market tried the 0.618 we would be looking on a 80% increase on the price.
If the market shows itself on a Bullish trend we could easily be looking to more than 100% increase in the price of MATIC.
This will be a long trade doesn't matter if it will be Bullish or Bearish, it can take several days or weeks, but I'm confident on massive gains on this one!
Personally I see this moment as a huge opportunity to buy MATIC, both as a trader and as a holder.
___________
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. The only purpose of this post is to share an idea and to talk about it.
Always remember do your own research!
US30 ABCD CompleteAfter hitting all of our targets we're now expecting a pullback and the trend to potentially reverse now previous structure is broken.
We now have a bullish ABCD completion, however, I'm not going to enter when the markets open, I'm going to watch the price action to see how it reacts to the current level/the fib levels, if price rejects from the 318 and gives us a reversal confirmation then we will short again next week and go with my trend Bias.
I may also look for buys on the pullback if we get confirmation at current level, but unless I get retest/candlestick confirmation I wont enter quick buys I'll be patient and wait for price to react from the Fib before taking shorts.
BITCOIN | Be Patient, You Will Get Rewarded!Hi,
I'm still here, just waiting, waiting and waiting, and trying to be patient. Every day it looks a bit harder but what we can do, that's the life of traders/investors. To be said, I have been quite quiet because the price of Bitcoin doesn't make sense to me, it makes some pumps and dumps just in the middle of nowhere. So, if you have tried to trade in recent weeks then probably your account is a bit smaller than before, if not KUDOS!
Not any significant signs to break either way. The price is held by Weekly 50EMA.
As you can see it has held it for several weeks. Tried to go down, failed. Tried to go up, failed. Even writing about it sounds like - small fake-out here and fake-out there.
As said, I have been quiet because for me, the current price action is just a game. I'll wait for the key levels. What are the key areas from where I'll start to look at charts more carefully?
Firstly I would like to talk about the bullish scenario/breakout opportunity. For me, it looks like the short-term, or even the mid-term bearish pressure/sideways movement should find its end after we have seen a strong bullish Daily candle close above $41k. The price action needs to be good but in general, this is the level from where I want to look at what the altcoins do. Do they have the breakout opportunities, how strong they are and etc. Hopefully, I can do the analysis of the TOP10 mentioned altcoins soon enough ;)
So, the breakout opportunity is locked. If the breakout happens then how high we can go 50k? I don't know. $60? I don't know. New ATH? I don't know! The only thing I can see is that the short-term we can catch something.
Now the ugly part of the game. The 20k. Yes, there are quite a high odds that we can see these lower prices - 16k to 21k. If you see that the price of BTC is that low then buy whatever you can. Simple, you just have to be brave to buy from the bloody streets.
In Investing, What Is Comfortable Is Rarely Profitable!
Summary: Two options: firstly, waiting for a break above 41k, I'm starting to look at breakout opportunities from altcoins and carefully trying to catch some moves. Secondly, waiting for a 20k to buy whatever I want! Be patient and you will get rewarded after it!
Regards,
Vaido
Wait for the CPI Selling Trigger !Price is hovering near the 1.22 resistance and a possible head and shoulder pattern can be formed in the upcoming hours. The CPI will of course play a huge role into it, knowing that if the result is better than expected, then this EURUSD will be a great opportunity for a short position.
Until then, waiters are winners so trade safe and best of luck !
GNW Beautiful Triangle!Hello Community!
When looking at GNW we can see it clearly trading in a triangle on the weekly TF. We need to pay close attention to this pattern and watch to see how it reacts to the trendlines shown. Overall, this is usually a bearish setup but anything can happen in the trading world. Based on the technical indicators, it's looking bearish for the next week or two. The MACD is beginning to tick towards the red and the RSI is forming a lower high. I can see a retest of the lower trendline in the near future, which would be a great place to start a long with a tight stop-loss. If entering a trade don't forget to use a stop-loss. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and comment. It'll be greatly appreciated!
This is not financial advice.
Safe Trading. Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect!
Simplicity Wins (:
AMZN need only time to grow even moreShort-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.
Although Amazon's revenue and EPS have benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.
COVID Beneficiary
Amazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This is Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it acquired Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated "only" $48 billion in revenue.
The company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.
ETH/USD broke supply zones: A LOT OF PATIENCE RIGHT NOW.ETH broke the supply zone, and it seems like it wants to close above the supply zone, so will wait for it to confirm if it's want to go up or will test the supply zone again. If it goes up, I will look for entry just below my 0 zone, since the last high was made there, if it goes below, I will look for a 38% zone to enter or even lower than that.
NQ1 Tune out the static!Consolidations are just that.....the index or whatever security or future you may be actively trading catching its breath before either completing a pattern...or changing to a new trend/pattern. Consolidations are meant to cause doubt, and shake out weak hands or make those without patience make rash judgments and mistakes. They are usually just noise and static. Until a major pattern completes, or fails, there is no reason to let a consolidation confuse you. In the case of this one.....the Bearish Harmonic is still in play.....until it isn't. So until it either completes in the range previously shown, or blows it out of the water....the play is the play and will continue to be the play until it convinces me otherwise.