Gold at a Crossroad: Breakout or Breakdown? Key Levels to Watch!Chart Overview
Timeframe: 1-hour chart
Exchange: OANDA
Current Price: 2444.100
Key Levels and Zones
4HR LQZ: 2474.524
1HR LQZ: 2370.122
Support Level: 2348.660
Key Low: 2287.754
Patterns and Channels
Descending Channel:
The price moved within a descending channel before breaking out.
Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) formed within this channel.
Ascending Channel:
The price moved into an ascending channel after breaking out of the descending channel.
Higher Lows (HL) and Higher Highs (HH) are visible, indicating a potential upward trend.
Current Price Action
Recent Higher High (HH): Price reached a higher high at the top of the ascending channel.
Potential Lower High: There is a possibility of forming a new lower high, as indicated by the recent price action near the 4HR LQZ.
Rejection at 4HR LQZ: The price touched the 4HR LQZ and showed signs of rejection, pulling back slightly.
Inset Chart: DXY
The inset chart displays the DXY (US Dollar Index), which shows a descending pattern, potentially indicating USD weakness. This is relevant because gold often inversely correlates with the USD.
Market Sentiment
Bullish Signs:
The breakout from the descending channel.
Formation of the ascending channel with higher highs and higher lows.
Bearish Signs:
Rejection at the 4HR LQZ.
Potential formation of a new lower high, indicating possible weakness or a reversal in the uptrend.
Summary
The XAUUSD chart shows a recent breakout from a descending channel and the formation of an ascending channel, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. However, the price faced rejection at the 4HR LQZ and is showing signs of forming a potential new lower high, which could indicate a reversal or consolidation phase. Monitoring key levels and market sentiment (especially USD movements) will be crucial for future price action.
Patternrecognition
Adani power Consolidating for more than 85 DaysAdani Power Limited is a holding company engaged in providing electric power generation by coal-based thermal power plants and coal trading. So, after the BO of this pattern to the upside, we can expect a move of around 30% and can keep a stop-loss below the swing low. NSE:ADANIPOWER
AI's Insight from News Cross-Checked with Pattern Recognition 👁Dear Investors, I believe that PLTR might fall to $13.2 in the coming months. Here, I made a short idea from the insights of the different AI algorithms I use for speculative analytics.
News Analytics - Natural Language Processing
1 Palantir's revenue growth has slowed in recent quarters. The company's revenue grew by 31% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023, but this was down from 54% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. This slowdown in revenue growth could be a sign that Palantir is facing challenges in the market.
2 Palantir's gross margin has been declining. The company's gross margin was 74% in the first quarter of 2023, down from 77% in the fourth quarter of 2022. This decline in gross margin could be a sign that Palantir is having to invest more in sales and marketing to drive revenue growth.
3 Palantir has been losing market share. The company's market share in the data analytics market is estimated to be around 1%, according to Gartner. This is a very small market share, and it has been shrinking in recent years. This could be a sign that Palantir is not as competitive as its rivals.
4 Palantir's stock price has been volatile in recent months. The stock price has fallen by more than 50% from its all-time high in August 2021. This volatility could be a sign that investors are uncertain about Palantir's future.
Cross-Checking Logic
Of course, there are also some positive news about Palantir that could suggest that the stock price will not fall to $13.2. For example, the company has a strong pipeline of new business opportunities. Palantir is also investing heavily in research and development, which could lead to new products and services that could boost the company's growth.
Chart Pattern Recognition - Deep Neural Networks
Between the two red trendlines, my neural networks believe to be a bearish channel. Your human eyes can see how Palantir rejected the upper trendline on 11 October and 21 November. I marked these price points with red ellipses. The channel had some bullish aspects when the bottom trendline acted as a support on 02 November and possibly today. Look at the left green arrow. Palantir's last rally related to this point. Today, the stock is near the same trendline again, and there's a chance that it can reignite a similar rally. The white arrow shows this possible scenario. I, however, feel skeptical that history would repeat itself.
Ensembling Technical Indicators
I asked different AIs to weigh technical indicators to represent their opinions. I ensembled the results of these AI opinions and selected MACD, RSI, and volume to simulate AI's insights in a way you can reproduce on your chart without AI. From declining volume bars I suspect the continuation of the bearish trend. The price action has been bearish over the last week, and I can't see the volume to reverse it. I can see extreme sell volumes every now and then, but they seemed to escalate the bearish trend. I don't see where the orders are that could absorb the end of the bearish trend. RSI tried to make a bullish cross below the volume indicator, but it happened to be a failed cross. RSI reversed as it crossed the SMA, which suggests a lack of bullish momentum. The potential bullish signal turned out to be an indication of how weak bulls are. At the same time, MACD has been going on the bearish side with a strong momentum, and periodically pulsing bearish momentum without signs of weakening. Overall, these indicators simulate what my AI bots believe about the market. Their ensembled opinion seems to be a bearish continuation.
Chart Explanation
I already explained the red bearish channel, the channel contacts, the indicators, and a potential bullish scenario, but I think bears enjoy a better risk-reward ratio. Theoretically, channel breakdown could pull the price into the support level of 13.2. I've got a green line at this level. Thus, the target price of a short could be within the green box around this level where the bearish trajectory's red arrow shows. The stock might reverse or not at this level. I'll have to reassess if I see the playout of my bearish expectation.
Conclusion
Ultimately, the direction of Palantir's stock price will depend on a variety of factors, including the company's financial performance, the overall market conditions, and investor sentiment. It is always important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Kind regards,
Ely
“Well, not everybody understands the patterns” Limitless 2011
In the movie Limitless (2011), Eddie Morra (Played by Bradley Cooper) takes a mysterious pill, NZT-48 , that turns him from a struggling writer to a financial wizard . The pill unleashes 100% of his cognitive power, transforming him into an intellectual powerhouse.
About 40 minutes in, there is a scene.
Hank: "Pattern recognition. That's your snake oil?"
Eddie: "Well, not everybody understands the patterns."
Why am I sharing this? Well, because not everybody understands the patterns, especially most traders.
Did you know that chart patterns actually work?
Not all patterns work, just some of them.
Although there are numerous patterns in technical analysis books, many of them are actually snake oil.
Take, for example, the Bull Flag; this is a Flag pattern occurring in an uptrend, usually during a bull market. The flag pattern is proven* to be snake oil; it is no more than a 50/50 chance of success.
Only one flag pattern works; it is called a high tight flag* and works 85% of the time.
The chart above (NVDA) is an example of one of the most accurate and successful patterns in technical analysis.
The Inverse Head and Shoulders.
The inverse head and shoulders is a well-known chart pattern. But how reliable is it?
Based on thousands of tested trades from 1996 to 2020, it has an 89% success rate and an average price increase of 45%.
Two decades of research* shows an inverse head and shoulders chart pattern has an 89% success rate for a reversal of an existing downtrend during a bull market.
When this pattern works, it averages a price increase of 45%; this is one of the most reliable chart patterns.
In fact, the NVIDIA chart above made 43% and has exceeded the target.
Trading is a Game of Probabilities
Trading is definitely a game of probability, but few traders understand the actual probability of each trade.
Now that you know the inverse head and shoulders is 89% successful with an average upside of 45%; you can assess your risk/reward and make better trades.
Sure, there is an 11% chance of failure and a lower-than-average price increase, but now you know the odds.
Take TradingView's NZT-48 Pill
In the movie Limitless, Eddie takes the NZT-48 pill and becomes a top trader.
But did you know that TradingView is like the NZT-48 pill?
How?
Because the inverse head and shoulders pattern in NVIDIA (chart above) was discovered and annotated with TradingView's pattern recognition algorithms .
TradingView does the hard work for you; it even sets the correct price target and lets you know when it is reached.
If you are trading and not using TradingView's in-built pattern recognition, you are not utilizing the NZT-48 superpower.
How to Turn On Pattern Recognition in TradingView
Click Indicators > Technicals > Patterns
Next, select the patterns you want.**
I hope this was useful; if you like, hit like. If you want more, hit follow.
Happy trading, traders!
*Source: The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (2021 Wiley) by Tom Bulkowski
**I would not recommend using the Pennant Patterns; they are proven not to work.
Trading ETHUSD with RSI and Pattern Recognition ⏳Greetings, fellow traders! I have identified a potential 5% profit opportunity on ETHUSD. The RSI indicator suggests that the bulls are gaining momentum in this dungeon of despair 🐂. The RO Flash indicator confirms this bullish sentiment by flashing green 🔥. I have placed a stop loss slightly below the target of the Rising Wedge pattern (kudos to TradingView for the new pattern recognition feature!). Let’s see how this trade plays out…🤞 According to a recent lesson I learned, consolidation near resistance or support levels often leads to a breakout failure. Will history repeat itself? Only time will tell! ⏳ To add more confidence to my analysis, I have also used the Anker Technical Analysis (TA) Kit indicator, which combines multiple technical tools such as moving averages, trend lines, Fibonacci retracements and more. This indicator shows me that ETHUSD is following a strong uptrend line and has bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This is a sign of strength and continuation 🚀
CABLE BULL BREAKOUTAfter several weeks of Price action consolidating on CABLE inside of a DESCENDING WEDGE and forming several HARMONIC PATTERNS it appears as though we finally have a winner between the bulls and the bears. Based on the price action a bottom has been formed and a breakout of the WEDGE PATTERN has occurred. Assuming this is a STEP ONE BREAKOUT and a total reversal of the bear momentum, we should see a RETEST next week, potentially during CPI, and a KISS of the broken trend.
Entries have been painted in two parts along with a stop loss BELOW the painted support areas @1.192, if CABLE is to break back into the pattern and challenge the bottom formation again, we will get out before it does so. If all goes well a new BULL TREND could form and CABLE will attempt to make a NEW HIGH
$BTC Short Term TABased on the chart, $BTC has been corrected to 20,700 which is above 50% fibonacci retracement. So, in the short term TF we might see $BTC trading range tightened in 21,700-23,800 range. If breaout from 161% fibonacce could take place, we might see a bulish continuation to 28k - 29k price range.
This TA is purely my personal opinion and is not financial advice. keep DYOR
Most Recent Powell Appearances & PA Hello Traders, -----------> (see picture below for better view) <----------
I just wanted to take a look with you on how Powell Appearances or Fed Minutes & Press conferences have affected price action.
Above is a quick look at that and a very near-term prediction of SPY.
Of course, Powell is a very well spoken man, and he chooses his words very carefully. He said exactly what was expected and exactly what the markets wanted to hear, hence the rally. However, when do we move past the idea that the rallies will be followed by drops in the days following? Are we there? Are we almost there? No way to really know. Even with a strong ear to the pulse of the markets and every analysis you can think of, it can be difficult to time the markets.
Luckily there are tools like you see on my chart that can help to stay consistent even when you aren't entirely sure when we've hit bottom or when the rally rug will pull. Not all technical tools are the same and there isn't a holy grail per se; but some tools of the trade are much sharper than others. For example, some tools may help you catch tops and bottoms really well when combined with a strategy.
How have you been doing-- are you Consistent-- are you Confident in your trades-- do you stick to your Strategy and Stop-loss?
Never stop sharpening your sword.
As retail traders, we must be constantly evolving and sharpening our toolbox to compete against the institutions and whales out there.
Happy trading.
Cheers,
Mike L.
(UPRIGHT Trading)
The Powell Catalyst
ROSEUSDT We see on this ROSEUSDT daily chart that the price respected that strong trend line, cause we see a rejection when the price touched that line after an accelerated downtrend, if you go back to the 4h frame you will see a clear rejection from that trendline, also we can easily recognize the head and shoulder pattern, so to get more confirmation we saw that the right shoulder meet the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
BTC Prediction (Pattern Recognition) My main way of trading effectively is through pattern recognition that confirms future price movements based on past movements when seeing the same patterns in the chart and the indicators. I also use fractals and some other methods when I can't come to a decisive conclusion.
As you see here, we have our Bearish Pennant, and inside it is our consolidation after our very steep drop. Which way is the breakout going to go???
1st: Look at the chart pattern as we near the end of the consolidation period. We see our little cup. If we see a strong downward trendline here, it doesn't look good.
2nd: Look at Stochastic RSI patterns. Our stochastic RSI also has a similar pattern when looking at the pattern before the last big downtrend, which is highlighted in a rectangle surrounded by vertical lines.
3rd: Look at any patterns in the MACD and other indicators. Our MACD also has some similarities in it compared to the consolidation period after the drop from 65k.
Are the patterns all lining up in similar ways???? Will they have the same effect on BTC's price??? That's for you to decide!
We will see a continuing downward trendline here followed by a small upward trend line, and then we will see a downward breakout from the bearish pennant.
**This is not financial advice. I'm not a financial advisor**
Ethereum 22% LongEthereum has just repeated a previous pattern, opening up the path to a rise of about 22%.
From the above analysis, we can clearly see that over the past three to four months, ethereum has mainly moved between two channels; an inner/secondary channel and a main one.
The first time around, a double bottom on the main channel led to a break above the inner channel, a small correction, and then eventually to a top on the main channel. This pattern has now been reiterated, and with a break above the 0 fib retracement level acting as further consolidation of the pattern, ethereum resumes its pursuit of the $3000 level.
A break below the all-time high of the 15th of April ($2488.07) invalidates the pattern, which is why I recommend placing a stop loss around that level.
Trade safe people!
FTMUSDT technical analysisFirst of all there is a nice looking wolfe wave pattern and the price breakouted the pattern line
Price made a correction to fibonacci levels.
Then went to the ABCD pattern points
The breakout volume is nice and the macro correction is to the fibonacci points are nice looking.
Also another ABCD pattern is possible.
If bullish trend continues those levels are possible aims. But that case is not certain like all the market movements so those fibonacci levels, supports and resistances must be watched carefully