BTC 3-day A follow on to our last 2 charts covering BTC's 3-day Pattern!
The 1-day Golden Cross has occurred and each time that it has in the past, BTC retraced just before or just after.
Also following the cross of the 21 Moving Average Crossing above the 50MA, BTC retraced back to the 50 as id did in 2021, and crashing through it in 2015 and 2020.
I have also noted that on the 1-day chart, BTC has been forming Bearish Divergence. 2021 was 28 days, current price action is 25-days!
Will BTC follow these past patterns or can it do the unexpected and break through our 100EMA and out-trend resistance?
Patterns
ADAUSDTHello Dear friends
happy new year :D
On the daily time frame, we have the positive divergence of the RSI, which has strengthened the possibility of forming a bearish wedge pattern at the end of the bearish trend.
The current trend is likely to continue up to the $0.23 range. In case of breaking the downward trend line and maintaining the support range of $0.19, we can expect the formation of an increasing trend up to the specified limits.
We would be happy to hear your comments
Learn Risk-Reward Ratio | Risk Management For Beginners
📚The risk-reward ratio (or risk return ratio) measures how much your potential reward (or return) is, for every dollar you risk.
📚For example:
If you have a risk-reward ratio of 1:3, it means you’re risking $1 to potentially make $3. If you have a risk-reward ratio of 1:5, it means you’re risking $1 to potentially make $5. You get my point.
⚠️Now, here’s the biggest lie you’ve been told about the risk reward ratio:
“You need a minimum of 1:2 risk reward ratio.”
This statement is incorrect! Because the risk-reward ratio is meaningless on its own.
📚Here’s an example:
Let’s say you have a risk reward ratio of 1:2 (for every trade you win, you make $2).
But, your winning rate is 20%. So out of 10 trades, you have 8 losing trades and 2 winners.
Let’s do the math…
Total Loss = $1 * 8 = -$8
Total Gain = $2 * 2 = $4
Net loss = -$4
By now I hope you understand the risk reward ratio by itself is a meaningless metric. Instead, you must combine your risk-reward ratio with your winning rate to know whether you’ll make money in the long run (otherwise known as your expectancy).
📍THEREFORE:
The key to success is the combination of the RR and Win Rate in such a fashion that yields a positive return.
📙Example:
🔘If your RR is 1:1 then you start making money with 51% win rate and above.
🔘If your RR is 1:1,5 then you start making money with 41% Win rate and above.
🔘If your RR is 1:2 then you start making money with 34% win rate and above.
🔴The higher the RR the lower is the breakeven Win Rate!
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Simple Bullish Penant FlagOBSERVATIONS :-
1) . As we know Pennant Flag ( Bullish ) is a Continuation pattern
2) First we can see the stock in Uptrend
3) Then it forms symmetric triangle with Flagpole
4) Then there was a breakout outside of the ascending triangle , we have to wait till it retest and then enter
5) You can go LONG / BUY the stock if retests and go further up after breakout
6) STOPLOSS - This can be set at the pennants last swing high
7) TARGET - This we can set as same as the width of the first penant high and low
Simple Inverted Head Head & Shoulders Reversal patternOBSERVATIONS :-
1) . As we know Inverted Head & Shoulders is a Reversal pattern from Bearish to Bullish
2) We can see the stock is in Downtrend for sometime and slowly losing momentum at the downside
3) Then it forms Left and right shoulders with Head forming with much lower price. Having either Hammer or bearish Marubozu candle is also a confirmation of good rejection
4) After touching the neckline resistance breaks , we have to wait till it retest and then enter
5) You can go LONG / BUY the stock if retests and go further up after breakout
6) STOPLOSS - This can be set slightly below the neckline
7) TARGET - This we can set as same as the width of the pattern itself considering Head.
Simple Triple Top ( Reversal Pattern )
1) . As we know Triple Top is a Reversal pattern from Bullish to Bearish
2) We can see the stock is in uptrend for sometime and slowly losing momentum
3) Then it forms Three tops with all tops containing Shooting star price rejection candle as well
4) After third top touch if breaks below Neckline resistance , we have to wait till it retest and then enter
5) You can short / Sell the stock if retests and go back further down.
6) STOPLOSS - This can be set slightly above the Neckline
7) TARGET - This we can set as same as the width of the pattern itself.
BTC -Day 2015 and Covid Crash Correlation A follow on to our chart before this: “Please read the analysis below to make better sense of this chart.”
As we can see, our pattern for each time the 21 crosses above the 50MA, price tops out and retraces.
Also hitting our 100 EMA resistance in 2015 just as we are seeing in the charts Now - 2023!
However, unlike the 2021 cross, top and pullback followed by a bounce, this time price action plummets right through forming a second bottom in 2015 and a slightly higher double bottom in 2020 (Covid Crash!)
I have also added where the 1D Golden Cross occurred roughly the same area as we topped out.
We know the 1D Golden Cross is very exciting, however, we must always be aware for false signals!
This analysis is pattern charting purposes only. 😊
TOP 5 Price Action Secrets You Must Know
🔴Multi-candle patterns are more reliable
The more candles a specific pattern contains, the more reliable it usually is. 3 candle patterns are better than single candle patterns. 30 candle patterns are usually better than 3 candle patterns. Patterns like head and shoulders, double and triple tops are among my favorites, exactly because of this reason. They consistently result in higher probability trades, which is what we’re all after. It doesn’t mean that a good pin bar setup won’t work, it just means there’s a higher probability of having these multi-candle setups resulting in a winning trade.
🟠Know where to place your stop loss
Knowing where to place an order is just the beginning. Where do you place your stop loss? Fixed pips stop loss levels are hardly a good approach since the market volatility can change and every trade should be looked at within the context of the recent market history.
🟢Always look for confluence
This is absolutely one of the most important secrets you have to know about. Confluence is everything.
So you’ve found a sweet price action setup. Great! Now make sure it has confluence, meaning that it coincides with other valid signals that support your trading idea.
🔵Tell a story of what happened
Every chart tells a story. It might be a story of clear direction or a story of messy back-and-forth battling between buyers and sellers. In a similar way, we can talk about clean price action vs messy price action. It is up to the trader to find the story and better understand what the market might do.
🟣Context is everything
Depending on where a price action setup occurs, you should interpret it differently. The same pin bar could be bullish or bearish, depending on if they show up at the bottom of a downtrend or top of an uptrend, respectively. Not all patterns are also worth taking if they are not preceded by the right price action and happen at the levels that are in one way or the other of significance.
🟤Identify key support & resistance zones
Support and resistance (or S&R for short) are terms used to denote areas where price reverses at its lowest point (support) and the highest point (resistance) on a chart. Often, these zones are “tested” multiple times as traders look for an increased buyer and seller activity around these levels. It’s important to note that support and resistance are usually not thin lines, but rather zones.
🔴The Bottom Line
The price action strategy is one of the most powerful tools for extracting money from the markets with predictability and manageable risks, but only if used correctly.
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$ATOM - Cosmos Layer 1 - 50% Potential$ATOM - Cosmos Layer 1 Blockchain - 50% Gains Potential
Developers have built hundreds of blockchain projects on Cosmos, including Binance Chain (BNB), Terra (LUNA), Crypto.com Coin (CRO), Cosmos Hub (ATOM), and more.
On a successful break out of $17, $ATOM has a potenital of 48% Gains,
Aggressive entries only here, will be adding on a clean break out above.
Support Levels - $10.5 ,$12.2
Next resistance - $16.5,$21.3,$25.5
Invalidation clean break below $9.5
📊 Chart Patterns Cheat SheetPatterns are the distinctive formations created by the movements of security prices on a chart and are the foundation of technical analysis.
A pattern is identified by a line connecting common price points, such as closing prices or highs or lows, during a specific period.
Technical analysts seek to identify patterns to anticipate the future direction of a security’s price.
These patterns can be as simple as trendlines and as complex as double head-and-shoulders formations.
🔹 Reversal patterns are those chart formations that signal that the ongoing trend is about to change course.
If a reversal chart pattern forms during an uptrend, it hints that the trend will reverse and that the price will head down soon.
Conversely, if a reversal chart pattern is seen during a downtrend, it suggests that the price will move up later on.
🔹 Continuation chart patterns are those chart formations that signal that the ongoing trend will resume.
Usually, these are also known as consolidation patterns because they show how buyers or sellers take a quick break before moving further in the same direction as the prior trend.
Trends don’t usually move in a straight line higher or lower. They pause and move sideways, “correct” lower or higher, and then regain momentum to continue the overall trend.
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📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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GJ - MONTHLY TIMEFRAME PROJECTION + ANALYSISPrice is now hovering in a Fib from the previous high on the Monthly TF. It has reacted to it and dipped but I'm not too sure how it is going to continue reacting for the time being. I only trade 1 or 2 pairs max at a time and GJ is one of them but i won't be entering until it breaks out indefinitely or shows me some kind of direction/bias.
It can either respect market structure and continue to make a LH and continue bearish or it can remove all liquidity and continue bullish (Which makes more sense).
It looks too pretty to be bearish - So I am favoring it to go bullish at some stage. Again - I'm not sure when but I have a couple areas that I'm waiting for it reach and give me confirmation at on the lower time frames (Haven't uploaded yet). And just like AJ It depends on the depth of the pullback and how much liquidity is sitting beneath price currently because its looking like the most cost-effective path for the banks to take price higher and remove all sellers.
Disclaimer: This is how I personally draw my charts and it's the first time I have started posting them. So, if there's not many drawings or explanations it's because i don't write them all out or draw them all out for my own analysis. I like my charts to be quite clean so i put as little on them as possible. :)
Possible Diamond Bottom on S&P500I've been frustrated trying to figure out what the s&p500 is doing as it won't crash and won't recover. I think it might actually be forming a diamond bottom pattern: thepatternsite.com
This is a pretty accurate sign of a bottom. It's likely to fully recover, so if it starts breaking upward don't question it. Good luck!
Learn a Triple Top Pattern | Classic Reversal Pattern You Must
🟢What is the Triple Top Pattern?
A triple top chart pattern is a bearish reversal chart pattern that is formed after an uptrend.
This pattern is formed with three peaks above a support level/neckline.
The first peak is formed after a strong uptrend and then retrace back to the neckline.
The formation of this pattern is completed when the prices move back to the neckline after forming the third peak.
When the prices break through the neckline or the support level after forming three peaks then the bearish trend reversal is confirmed.
🟢Trading the Triple Top
There are some rules when trading the Triple Top chart pattern.
✔️Firstly one should identify the market phase whether it is in uptrend or downtrend. As the triple top is formed at the end of an uptrend, the prior trend should be an uptrend.
✔️Traders should spot if three rounding tops are forming.
✔️Traders should only enter the short position when the price breaks out from the support level or the neckline.
🟢Stop Loss
In the case of a Triple Top chart pattern, the stop loss should be placed at the third top of the pattern.
🟢Price Target
The price target should be equal to the distance between the neckline and the tops, also taking into the account the key levels below.
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Deep Analysis of Gold: Non stop bullsHello traders!
Welcome back to another post with Analyst Aadil1000x.
Today I analyzed the Gold chart and look what I found. There are non-stop bulls in this pair. It is aim to break the trendline which started in Sept 2011.
Even after breaking that level it will not stop and will skyrocket and can break 2500 easily.
The world should get ready for this.
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Most Misguided PatternsHello Traders!
Welcome back to another trade with Analyst Aadil1000x.
Today I am posting some education posts which I found necessary to post and share with the public.
Have you ever wondered if you figured out a pattern perfectly and try to trade it and you lost and then you wait for the same pattern to reappear and try to trade that pattern in a more perfect manner and you still lose? The reason is you have been taught wrong. Nearly 100% of the patterns that are roaming on the internet are wrong and it will lead to a loss.
I have posted some patterns to make money easily. Trading is a game of probability and if you trade my way then the win probability will be higher than 70% and if you follow the traditional way then I am sure your probability will not be more than 30%.
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SPY New High - likely headed higher.Are you following my research yet?
Check out my SPY Cycle Patterns and decide for yourself if my predictions are accurate:
SPY Cycle Patterns for this week:
1/15/2023 GAP Potential
1/16/2023 GAP-Reversal
1/17/2023 Breakdown201
1/18/2023 POP
1/19/2023
1/20/2023 BaseRally301
1/21/2023 Break-Away
1/22/2023 Rally-111
1/23/2023 Carryover
1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway
1/25/2023 Harami-Inside
1/26/2023 CRUSH
1/27/2023 Rev-Rally
Now, using traditional Fibonacci price modeling, we can see the recent support level held and a New High was reached.
This indicates the SPY will likely attempt a bit of consolidation/rotation over the next 4+ days, but will likely rally even higher in early Feb.
Follow my research. It's simple and easy to follow.
USDCAD RISING WEDGEUSDCAD has formed a Rising Wedge on its daily chart.
The price is trading below the EL: 1.35629 and below the Pivot5 Rising Wedge Floor.
The price on the Wed 4rd '23 has formed a (MSH) Market structure Hight taking the previous lows signaling a Short outcome for the pair.
Also the price on the Friday 6th Jan '23 session has supported the idea taking new lows.
Target1:
62%: 1.30121
79%: 1.29525
Target2:
127%: 1.27895
162%: 1.26685