ASX Trades - AVL Long IdeaDisclaimer: I am a new trader, practicing my analysis and methodology and using these ideas to document and review my progress. All feedback is welcome!
Price has been in a tight consolidation for several weeks now, but has remained above the 200EMA since breaking above it in late July.
A clear base has formed at the 0.041 level during this consolidation period.
Trade idea will be validated by an increase in buying volume, causing a breakout above the consolidation pattern. If price retests and confirms the 0.050 level as support, and RSI is above 50, then I will enter the trade.
Initial stop loss will be below the pattern, and targets will be the previous monthly open prices (the dotted blue lines).
The 9EMA will act as a trailing stop when/if the trade is active.
This is a swing trade, which I will hold for 1-3 weeks depending on the market's movements.
Patterns
QQQ- Bullish & Bearish Signals / Potential Trade SetupsHello Trader, here is my analysis for the QQQ.
This week is a big week with the FED meeting on Wednesday. Pay close attention to price action leading up to that event.
- If price comes into a key level the prior day, there is the potential for another large sell-off if institutions don't like what they hear.
- It's also possible that we don't see much action until Wednesday as trades may want to wait and hear what the FED has to say.
Onto the analysis...
I've labeled the key factors that the Bulls will have to overcome if they want to have a shot at taking back control.
- Right now the Bears have full control, especially considering that we have 2 lower highs in this current trend and have yet to see the bulls make a higher low.
KEY LEVEL TO WATCH
$293 is currently the most important level. If the Bulls can't take price above that level, they are in big trouble.
- Think of it like this... Above $293 = Bullish. Below $293 = Bearish
Potential Trade Setups To Watch For
Shorts - If the Bulls can take price above $293, I will be scouting for short positions at key levels.
- It's to early to say what that is because there are a lot of factors that come into play when planning trades, however the descending trendline, ,moving averages, and prior pivot high at $310 are all levels I'm keeping an
eye on for a short.
Longs - $269 is the main level I'm keeping an eye on for a potential long at the moment. There are several things that would have to happen first for me to take a trade at that level, primarily the speed at which price comes into that
level. I will keep everyone update on this chart if a good trade entry arises.
Remember, the QQQ is currently in a downtrend and the Bears have control. If the Bulls are going to take control there are many things that must happen first. As a trader looking at this chart, we know that there is a higher probability of trend continuation to the downside until the Bulls take back key levels.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BTC UPDATE - STILL MORE DOWNSIDE??Not much has happened over the last week but a very weak rally which is looking corrective.
There might be one more low to the 78% around 19237 then I will be looking to short a rally back to the 22-23k area chasing the final move lower towards 12k.
Just an update for today, no trades as it is I will just wait for the pattern to show itself and go from there.
Enjoy the week!! 👍👍
Tesla - Bullish And Bearish Signals To Watch For.Hello Traders, here is my analysis for Tesla.
Listed on the chart are the Bullish and Bearish signals that I will be watching for.
- At the moment, a trade setup has not formed that I would be interested in, however I am keeping an eye on the price action to see if pattern forms that I can play.
Price is either going to breakout and Bulls will take price higher...
Or the Bears are going to take control and drive prices lower...
- Either way, I've listed the signals that I'll be watching to give me a clue as to whether the Bulls or bears will take control.
What trade Setups am I looking for?
If price trends down but has not yet broken the ascending trendline -
- Im looking for a potential entry long off the ascending trendline. (I want to see price hold this trendline first)
- I will also be looking for oversold conditions on the lower time frame RSI
- I will be looking for lower time frame patterns or entries.
- If the trendline holds, I see oversold conditions, and an entry pattern develops = I will potentially take this trade.
If price breaks down below ascending trendline -
- I will be looking for a potential Double Bottom long entry.
- I will need to see similar signals as listed above, entry pattern, oversold conditions, the support level must hold.
- It also depends on how quickly price comes into this level, the quicker it falls to this level, the better the odds of a bounce.
If price breaks resistance and rallies -
- I will be looking for potential short entries when price is way overextended and at key resistance levels.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading.
BTC - Levels To Watch ForHello Traders,
Here is a quick update on BTC
Since my post yesterday, BTC broke lower to the Major Support level at $19.5K. If this level fails that will be very Bearish for BTC.
If the Bulls can hold and break above this level, then that is a strong signal for the Bulls and they will have temporary control.
However, If the Bears can break price below this level, the Bears will clearly have control.
This is an important level to keep an eye on.
If the Bulls take control we can potentially expect a rally in the near term.
If the Bears take control we can expect lower levels, possibly back to range lows in the coming weeks.
Also, just a bit of quick education... The more times that price hits a level, the weaker it gets. - Think of it like someone trying to kick a door down, the more times they kick the door the weaker it gets, until eventually, it breaks.
Its the same thing with support and resistance levels.
- As you can see, the $19.5K level has been hit several times, this tells me that its currently in a weaker state and will be harder for the bulls to defend.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
For All Of You Following My Cycle Patterns - Here's Next Week.As you know, I have these setup 4+ years out into the future and continue to identify new RARE and UNIQUE patterns as time allows. I'm even up to 5~6 bar setups in some of them.
Yet, next week shows a very interesting set of Cycle Patterns...
9-19: Inside/BreakAway
9-20: BreakAway
9-21: Carryover (Possible Reversion)
9-22: Inside/BreakAway
9-23: Momentum Rally
*9-24: RARE - Major Reversal
*9-25: N/A
9-26: Breakdown201
9-27: Harami/Inside
9-28: CRUSH (*Bearish)
* = weekend
I'm reading this as a very important and volatile week will follow the Fed rate decision. The US/Global markets may move into FULL CAPITULATION after the Fed next week.
But, The RARE - Major Reversal pattern and the Momentum Rally pattern suggest the end of the week may see some type of "reversion" of the previous downward trend.
The following week (early) - we move towards a CRUSH pattern (9-28). Those tend to be very strongly BEARISH.
Stay protected. Follow my research and learn how I can help you navigate these incredible price swings.
We may see a little support in the markets tomorrow, but it looks like traders are already anticipating a 75pb rate increase and selling ahead of the Fed decision.
Channel, Support, High & LowIn this chart you can see the Channel in which we are and the price playing in triangle form
Along with that you can see the channel high and the lows of it which we are expecting
Support is 1677 which is strong and most of the time from year 2020 its bouncing back for upperside.
Let see if this time it breaks or not.
Today is a N/A Day (No cycle pattern) - what to expect...Today will likely be a carryover of yesterday, setting up tomorrow's TOP pattern. Because of this, I expect a bit of a rally phase today (rebounding off the lower support channel) and possibly attempting to move above 395 if there is substantial buying activity.
Yes, the Fed decision is near, but traders are still using the US equities market as a hedge against foreign market risks because of the stronger US Dollar.
Gold and Silver will likely setup another retest of recent support.
The markets are shifting and we could see a big move next week with the Fed decision.
Right now, I see the markets struggling to find support and attempting to hold above the Flag/Pennant lower channel.
Crude oil is lower - suggesting the global economic demand for oil is weakening.
Stay cautious. Follow my research. These cycle patterns are really incredible in how they predict days/weeks in advance.
✅WHEAT WAIT FOR BREAKOUT|LONG🚀
✅WHEAT is trading in a local uptrend
And the pair has formed a local
Bullish triangle pattern
So IF we see a breakout
Then the price will go further up
LONG🚀
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CPI Data collapses US markets - Watch For Rally/Reversion higherCycle patterns indicated a GAP/TOP for Monday/Tuesday. Then, they indicate a potential reversion/rally for Tuesday/Wednesday.
After watching the deep selling related to the CPI numbers, I would not be surprised to see a very strong rally/recovery over the next 48 hours in the SPY and other US Indexes.
News-based reactive moves like this are often erased over the next 24 to 48 hours as traders realize the true capacity of the future economic trends.
Stay tuned.
SPY Cycle Patterns UpdateThis weekend, I spent quite a bit of time studying various rare and unique cycle patterns within my database.
Because of this new research, I can share with you the new WEEKEND trigger which setup last weekend. I suspect a bullish GAP will setup early this week with price trending substantially downward on Monday. Tuesday should represent another attempt at a top/peak in price (possibly resulting in some wild volatility Monday/Tuesday). Wednesday will represent a Reversal/Rally day - possibly extending price up into a BULL TRAP for investors. Thursday is a N/A Day - meaning I don't have any confirmed Cycle Pattern trigger for that day. Friday will be another Top/Resistance day - likely seeing the markets establish a peak in price (again) and trending downward.
Headed into the Fed week and knowing traders will be preparing for future headwinds related to futures/options expiration, this week could be full of very volatile price action. I suspect Monday/Tuesday will set the RANGE for the week and the rest of the week will trade somewhat sideways.
Follow my research. These cycle patterns have been very accurate so far.
BAT - CRYPTO MOVING NICELY TO THE PATTERNSBINANCE:BATUSDT has had a nice move down from the larger Patterns on Sept 5th now we are looking for more weakness down toward 0.30 to complete this ABCD pattern.
If we look at todays AI there is a CIT Window at 13:00 this afternoon.
If we could get one more rally up towards 0.33-0.3350 that would set up a sell signal for a minimum move back down to 0.3200.
A nice one to keep an eye on as its moving nicely to the patterns I trade.
I hope this helps. Enjoy the day. 👍👍
ETH - MULTIPLE PATTERNS @ THE 78%Once again we have a corrective rally.
We have just completed multiple patterns in COINBASE:ETHUSD this morning @ the 78% level setting up the next move below 1400.
The good thing about patterns completing @ the 78% is that you dont have to risk much because if we get above 1720 then the pattern are wrong and we look for something else.
I hope this helps. Enjoy the Day!! 👍👍
DXY I see some reversal soon Price broke below the pattern that was what I expected. I'm waiting and watching for a bearish flag continuational pattern or any continuational pattern on the lower time frame to take a sell. I'll likely post if there is a correction to continue if possible. This will be my style of taking this trade!
Note it's of a financial advice
Thanks for reading
AS ALWAYS TRADE SAFE AND STAY SAFE!
A Bitcoin Simple Symmetrical AnalysisPiece together the simple aspect of symmetry and math. This decline on the 5 day (and weekly) proves to showcase a coincidental mathematical drop from Nov 2021. If this does play out our BTC bottom should be the 28th Oct 2022.
Note:
- 1st drop for Nov 2021 15 bars
- 2nd drop from April 2022 15 bars
- 1st up 13 bars
- 2nd up 13 bars
- Gaps from high to high both 28 bars
- 100% Fib-Based Ext. correlates to a ending range.
- Total avg -85% drop for cycle ATH 84.55% matches overall down bar calculations ending at a 50% retracement to the last parallel channel.
Note: I am publishing this idea based on discovery evidence found in the candle stick and observing the aspect in relation to the mathematical symmetrical patterns and how it correlates with Fib Levels, parallel channels. Nothing has to follow and a curve ball could be thrown however, for a 9 month reoccurring pattern is something not to ignore.
NZD-USD Downtrend Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-USD is trading in a local downtrend
And the pair broke out of the bearish flag pattern
Then proceeded to fall down
So we are bearish on the pair
And I think that we will see a retest
Of the support below next week
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!
BULL & BEAR FLAG PATTERNSBULL FLAG
This pattern occurs in an uptrend to confirm further movement up. The continuation of the movement up can be measured by the size of the of pole.
BEAR FLAG
This pattern occurs in a downtrend to confirm further movement down. The continuation of the movement down can be measured by the size of the pole.
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XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR