Patterns
EUR/USD - Bullish ScenarioAs is stands i am expecting the DXY to go down (See previous post) which means we will be looking for XXX/USD Longs. Here we have EUR/USD which is at a AOI for me, its forming a falling wedge along with the DXY forming a rising wedge giving good indications that we could see a reversal soon. I have marked out 2 Long scenarios here.
Risk entry will be the 3rd touch of the bottom trend line
Safe entry is break and re test of the falling wedge
Lets see what next week brings! :)
The global market crash of 2020 and the invisible recessionThe global market crash of 2020 and the invisible recession:
Laying over a select number of my tweets from 2019 and 2020 with calls for the a 40% correction, the start of the recession, and tentative dates for the global market crash.
I was off by a few days, but it's hard to predict the future. Obviously, right?
Also, I had my confirming signal exactly two years ago in July 2019 which is why I am sharing this now.
2 years since from confirmation.
I used various dark patterns, analyses, and techniques which gave me then the confidence that there was a black swan underway.
Unique Pattern BTCThis is the strongest Bitcoin Pattern. Its called the Ladel Pattern, and it Starts when BTC reaches All-time high.
The Ladel pattern has been consistently appearing at every major all-time high of BTC. And the accuracy of this pattern is pretty high as you’ll see in this video.
People are used to “One Size Fits All Patterns”. The ladle pattern is proof that each Currency/Stock does have their own unique patterns that cannot be found in the traditional textbook pattern list.
Success Rate of Popular PatternsRemember Do not trade solely on Patterns only. Ultimately, traders should seek out the best combination of patterns and price action to create an analysis strategy that works for them. Experiment with different approaches and combinations until you discover a method that suits your trading strategy and goals.
Here are the success rates for these patterns:
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.44%)
Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.04%)
Bearish Rectangle Pattern (79.51%)
Bullish Rectangle Pattern (78.23%)
Triple Bottom Pattern (79.33%)
Triple Top Pattern (77.59%)
Double Bottom Pattern (78.55%)
Double Top Pattern (75.01%)
Ascending Channel Pattern (73.03%)
Descending Triangle Pattern (72.93%)
Ascending Triangle Pattern (72.77%)
Bull Flag Pattern (67.13% Success)
Bear Flag Pattern (67.72% Success)
Bullish Pennant Pattern (54.87%)
Bearish Pennant Pattern (55.19%)
These success rates presented are the result of a study conducted by a group of professional traders. They studied 10 different patterns independently from one another in 5 different markets (Forex, Futures , Equities, Crypto and Bonds), for a time period of 22 months with more than 50 case studies for each and every single pattern.
EURUSD pattern trades 15min week of 7/415 min time frame. green line is start of this week. Singular lines mean patterns only visible on smaller time frame, more lines mean you can see on 1hr, 4hr, etc. Circles are entries, the lone X down there is the one exit for the short. Maybe if I markup usdcad I'll see better timings for my entries....
Tesla repeating patterns.I get very nervous making posts about tesla. I feel like saying anything negative about it will get me dragged out somewhere. Now that I say that I kind of want to make a post that paints it in a very bearish light just to spice things up a bit. That's probably a sign boredom is creeping in.
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I was going to see if I could do some wave counting and labeling to continue my mastering elliot waves series. I know those posts are almost impossible to digest, so you're welcome. Also, I'm going to continue posting them, just not today.
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So basically the naked eye of mine is seeing these repeating patterns, and so I dug into them a little bit to see exactly how they are different and similar and what that might mean about the future direction of price. My conclusion is that the price might very well double. Wild claim! I am thinking if it manages to take out any of the lower highs without losing the current support then it will be looking very likely to chart new territory. Otherwise, if we lose the current support then price will probably spend some times in no mans land. Much like it has been.
Considering the public perception of tesla it's difficult for me to see it shrinking. To me that is the ultimate gauge for future of a stock. I feel like anyone who has a tesla is generally really happy with that purchase, and everyone who doesn't have one probably hasn't been in the market for a new car/doesn't have the means to acquire one.
If self-driving could only achieve one thing, and that one thing was the elimination of road-rage, I think the world would be a noticeably better place. Driving is one of those things that really hammers in the idea that life is indeed a b****. Driving f***** sucks. I'm aware modern civilization is dependent on it. Does it still suck? Believe it.
The diamond formation explained in terms of ADA's price A bearish confluence has arisen among all the current bullish signals. This formation is theoretically seen as a reversal pattern and is bearish based on the fact that the price originated from bullish movement. Although the price target of this formation is at $1.29, does not mean it will reach these levels tonight, however knowing crypto assets a 10% retracement is not an irregular occurrence.
In order for the price to hit the TP, it will firstly have to break below the $1.40 mark which is a strong resistance level of the previous formation the price broke out of. Then the price would have to move below the 50% fib retracement level which is an extremely strong level of support and resistance. Only then would the path be clear for a movement down to the TP which happens to be a strong support level.
I am seeing this current market as a strong accumulation phase and if the price falls to the TP it would just be a sign of the continuation of this phase, which is great news for those who are in the market for the long term. The further accumulation would benefit the ADA market as a reversal and breakout to the bulls will roll out with the release of smart contracts which will bring in further hype into the space resulting in a huge move to the bulls.
My current opinion on the market in the short to medium term remains neutral with a bias towards the bulls on a slightly longer time frame, how ever there will be some blood in the street leading up to this point of course.
A question for those of you who are scared based on the current situation with regulation over the crypto space. Don't you think that regulation is one of the best things that could come out of the crypto space?
some would think I'm crazy for saying this, BUT hear me out. Regulation is only scaring in this sector because it has never been regulated before based on the fact that it was not as wide spread adopted than it is today, and regulation is just a sign from institutions and governments that the sector is more serious than one would think and this is a way of showing the mainstream that even they are starting to take crypto seriously, But in order to do so they will obviously want to be compensated for the rise of this revolutionary financial system of assets, which is fine, unless this news has the effect on you that temps you to sell your assets. This is not a good idea as you will dearly regret this decision, maybe not now but in the near future.
Just remember that all sectors associated to any financial system or third party intermediary are taxed and regulated any way, so why is regulation in this sector so frowned upon... don't let the media cloud your logic to believe what is said is true.
How do you feel about regulation in the crypto space? leave a comment and like and we can discuss this topic, related to any asset.
Cup and Handle, lets wait for the bait to go firstYes, I see that too but let's wait for the minions to first. We can see how those with the little patient are getting screw right now and we as intelligent trades want no part in that, so our best tool is to wait for confirmation
such as a big wik for example.
AAVE/USDT about to explode!AAVE/USDT is breaking out from a descending channel.
- It will retest the price between $233 - $242. (Buying zone)
- Price is expected to reach a zone between $269 - $281. (Take Profit)
Be aware that the price of most cryptos is deeply connected to how Bitcoin moves, if Bitcoin holds between $34700 - $36500 I strongly believe that AAVE can test the $281 resistance. Always do your own research.
It's my first time publishing something, in my next posts I will give more details about the trade and the technicals behind it.
Bitcoin H&S Target Touched 8 times. Bull run will resume soon.Pretty simple analysis here. I find that often simple analysis isn't any less correct than complex.
Anywho, Bitcoin dropped perfectly from our neckline of the H&S pattern at around 50k, exactly where I sold. I then hit our target down from that neckline perfectly! You can see this target drawn on the chart. Here is where I immediately posted that we should all be buying. Though unintentional, I drew the target line weeks out. We've hit that target line now (or have come close) 8 times.
Our upward resistance now becomes the ORANGE uptrend line from MID-OCT of last year. You can see we've hit our heads on that quite a few times as well. I expect it to break soon. However, the reason that this post is neutral, is because it has not broken yet. I am and have been fairly bullish ever since BTC hit 30k. That is obvious from my posts which you can view below. However, I will only become a full-on bull again once we break that overhead resistance (ORANGE trendline). And although I am mostly all in the crypto market again, my sell stops are fairly tight. This last resistance is huge and MUST be hurdled first.
Happy trading all!
Triangle patterns - All you need to knowToday, we will explain the most important concepts behind triangle patterns.
The first thing you have to know is that triangle patterns are composed of 5 waves which we can define using letters "a,b,c,d,e" This concept was created by Ralph Nelson Elliott, one of the fathers of modern technical analysis and mainly known because of the "Elliott Wave Principle."
Most of the times , we are used to observing corrections with Zig-Zag shapes
These are really easy to spot because C always goes below A, and we can say, "NOW is finished." However, with triangle patterns, we need more patience, its not that easy to say "now is ready" because we never have waves that go above or below the other ones; it's a constant compression. That's the reason it is imperative to wait for 5 clear waves.
Another important concept of triangle patterns is that we can start drawing these two lines that will intersect in the future. These two lines will tend to contain the pattern until the breakout or the cancelation of it.
Ok, let's assume that you had the patience to spot a clear triangle pattern. How should I trade them?
ENTRY LEVEL: ALWAYS above "D" but much better above "B." Why? Because at that level, the price would have broken 2 resistances zones which is a strong sign for the bullish thesis.
STOP LEVEL: ALWAYS below A that was the main support of the structure, so we want to exit our position if the price goes below that level
TAKE PROFIT LEVELS: USE fibo extensions on the previous impulse and pay attention to two levels, 1.27 and 1.68
Important concept: Remember that context IS EVERYTHING. You don't want to trade isolated structures; you want to trade a structure and a macro context aligned with the view you have.
Final idea: Here, we have used a Real example on TSLA. We think that the best way to show these theoretical concepts is by looking for real scenarios and testing them. Here we think that the corrective pattern is not finished, and we want to observe a clear ABDE before setting confirmation areas. It's important to know also that technical analysis is not mathematic; it's closer to soft sciences/disciplines. This means that Technical Analysis is not a fundamental science that explains all the movements of the market; that would be nonsense; technical analysis provides us with statistical guidance that can help us project a probabilistic scenario which can happen or not.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your vision and ideas in the comment box.