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Patterns

What do you do when your trading plan fails? Yesterday I wrote about a beautiful chart pattern that was forming on the Bitcoin daily time frame that ended up failing not long after I wrote the post. That kind of thing will shake a trader to their core, especially if they thought it was going to play out, but ended up losing their shirt. This is why it is important to set stop losses, so that if the trade does go the other way, you will be out of the trade before it gets too bad. This is simply called risk management, and is one of the biggest things that any trader, especially new traders need to master. Trading is a business of statistics and probabilities. Just because something has worked for you in the past, doesn't mean it is going to work for you every time. So when something like a bullish pattern that you have traded many times fails, you have to reassess and move on to the next trade. Out of 100 trades, that pattern may only work 6 or 7 times which gives you a 60-70% chance of it working in your favor. That's how it works, nothing is ever 100% in this game. So you always have to be ready for things to not work out the way you think they should. If they don't work out, don't freak out! Just learn from your mistakes, readjust your plan, and move along to the next trade! Hopefully things like this will help you better understand the importance of a good risk management plan. Be safe out there everyone and trade logically!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by thelogicaldude
Raising My Targets on Litecoin. New Cup and Handle Spotted.As you know, I went long LTC at around $68. My target was $81. I am now in the profit and have raised my stops to just over break even ensure that I won't take a lost. While browsing the charts this morning, I spotted something on Litecoin that I did not see previously, a new cup and handle pattern! This one is longer term and gives Litecoin a much higher target, or targets. I will be raising my targets on Litecoin now due to this new pattern spotted. Target one will be $89. Target two will be $96. This is not fin advice. Best, Stewdamus
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
Double Top - GUHere I have GBP/USD on the 4 Hr Chart! We have a nice outline of 2 Peaks or Highs forming what looks to be a possible Double Top formation! With price failing to make a Higher High @ 1.27245 and now on its way back down to the Confirmation of Pattern @ 1.26035, I believe we will be seeing a Break of the current Low giving us a Lower Low signaling Price to extend further down!! Fundamentally this week: GBP - Construction PMI and BOE Bailey Speaks (Wed) USD - JOLTS (Tue) Non-Farm (Wed) Unemployment (Thur) Non-Farm and Unemployment (Fri) **Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS! -Pattern Prediction- If Price Breaks and Closes above 1.27245, Pattern INVALIDATED! If Price Breaks and Closes below 1.26035, Price Action will Initiate my Trade Action Plan!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
Head and Shoulders - GUHere I have GBP/USD on the 30 Min Chart! We currently have price outlining 3 different Highs outlining what looks to be a Head and Shoulders Pattern on top of the Support or "Neckline"! I believe we could be seeing a possible Reversal coming! **Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS! -Pattern Prediction- If Price Breaks and Closes above 1.27085, Pattern INVALIDATED! If Price Breaks and Closes below 1.26729, Pattern CONFIRMED and will initiate Trade Action Plan!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
Pennant - AJHere I have AUD/JPY on the 4Hr Chart! Price was Rejected @ 98.534 creating the high on Nov' 15th. Since then Price failed at the same level and again at attempted Higher High on Nov' 27th! Following this Lower Highs are Higher Lows which seem to be forming a Pennant Pattern! Currently we have 3 Tests of the Falling Resistance and getting the 3rd test of the Rising Support now! Pennants are likely to break Bullish OR Bearish so we must wait for the Proper Break!! Given AUD has some big news tonight, this will play a big role! **Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!! Fundamentally this week: AUD - CPI (Tue) and OPEC (Thur) JPY - OPEC (Thur)
by Novi_Fibonacci
Bearish Sequence (Descending Triangle) - EJHere I have EUR/JPY on the 4Hr Chart! I believe we are seeing a Correction in the Bearish direction since EUR/JPY has been traveling in a UPTREND for quite some time! Our current Highest High @ 164.308 on Nov' 16th is the first touch of the Falling Resistance followed by the failed attempt at a Higher High @ 163.719 on Nov' 26th forming what could potentially be a Descending Triangle Pattern! **Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS! Fundamentally this week: EUR - CPI (Wed), Flash CPI & OPEC (Thur) and President Lagarde Speaks (Fri) JPY - OPEC (Thur) -Bearish Prediction- If Price Breaks and Closes above 163.719, Set-Up INVALIDATED! If Price Breaks and Closes below 161.245, Price Action will initiate my Trade Action Plan!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
How to trade Double Tops to the Short Side using 1 hour barsI always ask myself: What's my favorite chart pattern for finding high probability entries? I look at my stats, I look at my various strategies, and I always find I like one type of trade best: Trend Continuation trades using double tops for shorts and double bottoms for longs. The strategy is simple: Using 1 hour wickless bars, (I'll show you how in the video), identify a trending stock by seeing where price is clearly up or down, then identify a double top or double bottom occurring along the trend. When you have two confirmed tops or bottoms, get short or long, as the case may be. The patterns really do come in all shapes and sizes, but they are best when they occur along a resistance line, be it VWAP, a 20 EMA, or some other. They also can be confirmed by looking at your RSI chart which will indicate clearly two v bottoms for a long entry or two peaks for a shorty entry. Seeing where on the RSI chart these double patterns are forming is also instructive. Longs should show up on the RSI chart as a pair of v bottoms occuring at the bottom of the upper half of the chart, above the 50% line. Shorts should show up on the RSI chart as a pair of peaks at the top of lower half of the chart, just below the 50% line. Because you're using 1 hour bars to find entries, it naturally stands to reason that your setups will trigger at the top of the hour, when there is typically a burst of volume. If your analysis is correct, that volume burst will push your trade in the proper direction within seconds, so if you like instant gratificatrion like I do, you'll enjoy that aspect of trading this way.
CAPITALCOM:US100Education
by BlackCar
What Traders and Detectives Have in Common 📊🕵️‍♀️In this article, I want to talk about the interesting similarities between trading and detective work. Like detectives solve mysteries to find the truth, traders explore the market to understand patterns and make smart decisions. 1️⃣ Gathering Clues: Both trading and detective work rely on the acquisition of timely and relevant information. Traders stay informed about market news, economic indicators, and patterns, just as detectives gather clues from witnesses, documents, and other sources. In both cases, the quality of information directly impacts decision-making. 2️⃣ Risk Assessment: Detectives must carefully assess risks and probabilities to navigate the unknown. Similarly, traders must evaluate market risks, weighing potential rewards against potential losses. Just as a detective gauges the likelihood of various scenarios, a trader assesses market conditions to make calculated decisions that align with their risk tolerance. 3️⃣ Patience and Persistence: Success in both trading and detective work demands patience and persistence. Detectives may spend long hours sifting through evidence, and traders may patiently wait for the right market conditions. Like a detective unraveling a case, a trader must persistently analyze data and adapt strategies to changing market dynamics. 🔎 In essence, trading is a financial investigation, where observation, critical analysis, and connecting the dots play a crucial role. As we navigate the market's complexities, let's embrace the spirit of a detective, ever vigilant and ready to uncover hidden truths that guide our decisions. Wishing you successful trades and discoveries in your financial journey. Did I forget any similarities? What are your thoughts? Also, what would you like me to compare traders to next? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Education
by TheSignalyst
32
Pennant - UCADHere I have USD/CAD on the Daily Chart! Price has been creating Higher Lows into Lower Highs which is outlining a Pennant Pattern! Important factors to mention: The High price created at the First Touch of the Falling Resistance was unable to stay above the Previous Highs made on Oct. 13th '22 and Mar. 10th '23 and seems to be struggling with this Resistance at 1.38621. The USD has been severely falling since last weeks news on CPI BUT could potentially find support at this 103.0 area like it did last time it was here on Aug. 31st! Fundamentally this week: USD - FOMC Meeting (Tues) Unemployment Claims (Wed) Thanksgiving* (Thur) Flash PMI (Fri) CAD - CPI (Tues) My bias on the pair at the moment is neutral due to the Heavy flow of News this week and the impact it all may have. WAIT for price to give a PROPER break of either the Falling Resistance or Rising Support! *Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!!
by Novi_Fibonacci
Bull Flag - XRPHere I have XRPUSDT on the 4Hr Chart in what looks to be a Bull Flag!! Price was previously in a Strong Uptrend prior to entering the pattern. -Price gave us 3 tests of the Falling Resistance and 2 tests of the Falling Support. If this is in fact a Bull Flag, we should expect a Bullish Break to this continuation pattern where price should continue HIGHER! **Chart patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!!! -Pattern Prediction- *If price Breaks and Closes below Falling Support, pattern INVALIDATED! *If price Breaks and Closes above the Falling Resistance, price action will initiate my Trade Action Plan!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
2
NVDA: What to expect for earnings next week?This huge semiconductor has plenty of clout in terms of popularity with retail investors. HFTs are likely to gap on its earnings news which arrives on 11/21, next week. Clearly there are many who are confident NASDAQ:NVDA will meet or beat analyst estimates despite setbacks and restrictions. The run hit resistance and became overextended, so some profit taking is occurring for now. The stock is likely to shift to a tighter consolidation near the high of this platforming range.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
Potential Inverted Head & Shoulders - GMEHere I have GameStop stock on the 4Hr Chart exhibiting signs of a potential Head & Shoulders pattern! GME hit its 52-Week Low last Monday so I believe this could be a great area for a potential reversal in the Bullish direction! www.tradingview.com The Neckline @ 14.30 has been tested twice now, once after the creation of the "Left Shoulder" and again after the creation of the "Head". Now what I expect for GME is for price to come down for the creation of the "Right Shoulder" with Pattern Invalidation at 12.90! -Pattern Prediction- *If price Breaks Down and Closes Below 12.90, pattern INVALIDATED! *If price Breaks Up and Closes Above 14.30, price action initiates my Trade Action Plan!
NYSE:GMELong
by Novi_Fibonacci
4
CUP O' THE MORNING! - AJHere is AUD/JPY on the 30 Min Chart in what looks to be a VERY convincing Cup and Handle Pattern starting to form! I expect price will finish the "Cup" @ 97.007 -THEN- Give us our "Handle" (Higher Low) to continue HIGHER being that its a Strong Reversal Pattern! Fundamentally: AUD -> NAB Business Confidence (Mon), Wage Price Index (Tue), Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (Wed) JPY -> "Clear News Week" **Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
Descending Triangle - EUHere I have EUR/USD on the 1Hr Chart which seems to be outlining what looks to be a Descending Triangle pattern!! We had price test the Falling Resistance TWICE with price showing the Support Zone down below. If this Descending Triangle should stand true I would like to see a THIRD test of the Falling Resistance before price falls back down to the support area and BREAKING BEARISH!! -BUT- There is always the chance EUR beats out USD being so light on News this week that if news is bad for USD, we could see a BULLISH BREAK to this Pattern instead! Fundamentally: EUR -> Economic Forecast (Mon), Economic Sentiment (Tue) and Lagarde Speaking (Fri) USD -> CPI (Tue), PPI & Retail Sales (Wed), Unemployment (Thur) and Building Permits (Fri) **Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS! -Pattern Prediction- *If price Breaks and Closes above Falling Resistance, pattern INVALIDATED! *If price Breaks and Closes below Support Area, price action will initiate Trade Action Plan!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
Mickey Mouse is UPSIDE-DOWN!Here on the Daily Chart we have The Walt Disney Stock. Price has been outlining what looks to be a possible Inverted Head and Shoulders! The "Neckline" @ 86.28 has been tested twice, once on Sept. 15th after the creation of the first "Shoulder" and again on Oct. 17th after the creation of the "Head". Now since we have the creation of the second "Shoulder" or the Low that did not surpass the Low of the "Head", I suspect price will make a trip back up to test the "Neckline" one more time before possibly giving us a Bullish Break to go higher!! As added confirmation, My DSR is flattening and and the second "Shoulder" was terminated by my Fib'd Kill Zone giving this a high chance of reversing! **Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS! -Pattern Prediction- *If price Breaks and Closes below 79.23, pattern is INVALIDATED *If price Breaks and Closes above 86.28, price action will initiate my Trade Action Plan!
NYSE:DISLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
2
Pennant - AJHere on the Daily Chart I have AUD/JPY showing signs of a Pennant pattern! Lower Highs into Higher Lows until a "Pinch Point" where price will need to break Bullish or Bearish. Pennants can break either way but the direction of the Market usually has an influence on where price will go after the break. Price has tested the Falling Resistance and Rising Support twice already, so I am waiting to see what the Third test of either Trendline will bring! Price currently is on its way up so I suspect we will get a third test of the Falling Resistance shortly! *Chart patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!
by Novi_Fibonacci
6
Textbook Consolidation Rectangle -EGHere we have EUR/GBP on the 4Hr Chart in a beautiful textbook example of a Consolidation Rectangle Pattern! Clearly respecting a Resistance @ .87403 and Support @ .86829! Accompanying price on my chart is the 200 EMA with price ABOVE it showing it has been BULLISH with the dirty test prior to the pattern. Along with the Bollinger Bands showing CLEAR signs of sideways trajectory! Fundamentally for today: EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change @ 3am and Unemployment Rate @ 5am GBP - CIPS UK PMI @ 4:30am and MPC Members Pill & Haskei speak @ 7am & 11am As far as directional bias, I will be neutral on this pair until we are given a proper break with added confluence of other factors pointing to solid momentum! *Chart patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!!
by Novi_Fibonacci
"Beast Mode" to the Rescue?! - TSLASome exciting developments have come to light for Tesla and their CEO Elon Musk! Technically, price has been falling since the beginning of August with its Highs and Lows outlining what looks to be price traveling in a Bull Flag! If we want price to travel higher, we need a solid Break and Close above the Falling Resistance! Fundamentally, Tesla announced its new version of the Cyber Truck with "Beast Mode" with features as impenetrable panels and glass (If opted), 0-60 UNDER 3 seconds, No differential allowing it to be the best bottom clearance vehicle with adjustable ride heights. www.tradingview.com Also Elon announced he is rolling out he's AI tech model, xAI, to select a few and being readily available to X (formely Twitter) Premium Subscribers. www.tradingview.com *Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Novi_Fibonacci
2
Falling Wedge - AAPLHere we have the Apple Stock on the Daily Chart showing signs of a Falling Wedge! Consisting of Lower Highs and Lower Lows into a Pinch Point where typically we should get a BULLISH break! Technically, if we want to see this stock rise again, we need a good break of the Falling Resistance of the Wedge and with current news events and movements the tech giant is doing, we could be seeing it soon!! Fundamentally, Thursday Earnings showed positive results where Q4 results came in less than great for AAPL where it had shared sales have dropped globally for the fourth consecutive quarter, in China dropping -2.5%. www.tradingview.com Today, news was released that rumors of the iPhone 16 features exceeding that of the iPhone 15's Camera and Zoom and with a huge Tech Investor, Gene Munster calls for a reassessment of the Q4 results saying they are "Exaggerated". www.tradingview.com *Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
2