Alibaba - Finally The Trendline Breakout!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) finally broke above the bearish trendline:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Alibaba is breaking out and the breakout is not unexpected whatsoever. For a long time, Alibaba has been hugging the resistance trendline and finally managed to fulfil its destiny. This could very well be the bottom of the bear market and the start of something big: new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $115, $80
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Patterntrading
Bigger Bubble" Creation vs. Downtrend Bubble Burst: What Comes NMore Giant Bubble" Creation vs. Downtrend Bubble Burst: What Comes Next?
As the Federal Reserve (Fed) begins its rate-cutting cycle, the stock market and gold prices are hitting record highs, fueling growing investor confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy. However, it’s important to remain cautious. The market may appear to be creating a "bigger bubble," but investors should consider secondary effects. An economic slowdown could trigger a sudden market crash even with continued rate cuts.
A critical indicator to watch is the U.S. Treasury yield curve, which often signals an impending recession. Recently, a closely watched segment of the yield curve has returned to a typical slope after being inverted, signaling that a sharp economic downturn may be imminent. "When the inversion ends, the real countdown begins, and that’s where we are now."
"Bigger bubble" creation vs. downtrend bubble burst?!
Waiting for a LONG trade: Please refer to the chart. Long trade entry set up target and s/l.
Methodology: Fibonacci Channel & Fibonacci Retracement
Risk control reference pivot points:
Daily pivot points (table provided)
4-hour pivot points (table provided)
www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer: The content represents expert opinions and is not investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions, carefully assess risks, and bear full responsibility for their outcomes.
SPY is looking Very Sexy ! There is 1 more step to go ! N3 Confirmed!! The price is doing exactly what we had predicted (see previous analysis).
Indeed, the price bounced in the zone we had predicted last week, creating an "N3" pattern. Now, we are waiting for the final phase of the N3 pattern, which is to reach new highs or new extreme.
What do we need to see?
This phase is of great importance because, if completed, we would be at new historical highs again.
The Key is the Last Candle: If you can observe the last candle on the chart, you'll see it has a very long lower wick. I call this a buying pressure candle; however, we need confirmation with the next candle, which should have a large bullish body in order to reach the new extremes we've been seeking.
So, we can conclude that by putting all the points together when analyzing this chart, we have a bullish outlook for the rest of next week. However, it’s important to remember that we need solid confirmation with a bullish candle to confirm we will have a green week!
Best regards and success in your trades.
Thanks for supporting my analysis.
NZDCAD trade based on H&S pattern
NZDCAD trade based on HEAD and SHOULDERS pattern. We can see price is try to go bullish on 6.9 in 19h, and its revers in another day we are can saw strong bearish candles, which me represent bearish volumen gathered. On end of 10.9 we can see some interested candles like shooting star and bearish engulfing which can be good signs.
+Bearish expectations after todays CPI events
TP: 0.82450 (80)
Google - Textbook break and retest!NASDAQ:GOOGL might retest the previous breakout level before continuing the uptrend.
The entire chart of Alphabet (Google) is green, yet I do expect a (short term) move lower first. For almost a decade, Alphabet has been retesting and respecting a major support trendline before then breaking out of the ascending triangle formation just a couple of months ago. I just expect Alphabet to retrace back to the breakout level before then creating new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $150
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Tesla - Breakout After Almost 4 Years!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is finally breaking out of the triangle pattern:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After a 4 year consolidation, Tesla is finally attempting to break out of the long term bullish triangle pattern. The monthly candle still needs to close but everything is pointing towards a major move higher, with the first target being the previous all time high from 2022.
Levels to watch: $250, $370
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
EURAUD new bearish expectations after todays EU events
EURAUD strong bearish in last peirods, currently after todays EU events we can see EUR is start weakening more.
Currently price action visible BEARISH FLAG pattern, its breaked and we can see strong momentum.
From here bearish continuation till next zone expecting
TP1: 1.59650
TP2: 1.58650
GOOGL may be ready to rally with the other Magnificent 7.NASDAQ:GOOGL has not performed as well as other Magnificent 7 names, which are currently trading much higher than their August 5th lows. If NASDAQ:QQQ continues to build above its daily 50 SMA, and other technology names in this space continue to move higher, GOOGL may start to move higher as well. GOOGL has held demand at the retest of the previous all-time high and may break out of a falling wedge on the weekly chart.
Unlock Trading Success with These Proven Chart PatternsTechnical Analysis of the Trade:
The chart you provided highlights several patterns and levels, which I'll break down into different components for a clear analysis:
1. Market Structure:
Ascending Channel:
The price is moving within an upward-sloping channel, indicating that the market is in a bullish structure. An ascending channel like this represents a controlled trend higher with occasional corrections, providing potential buying opportunities on pullbacks to the lower boundary of the channel.
Trade Implication: As long as price remains within this channel, the overall bias is bullish. A break below the channel, however, would signal a shift in momentum, suggesting a potential sell-off.
2. Bull Flags:
Bull Flag 1 (Lower on the chart):
This flag formed after a strong upward move, followed by a tight consolidation, which is a classic bullish continuation pattern. The breakout from this flag has already occurred, leading to a further upward push.
Bull Flag 2 (Upper on the chart):
Similar to the previous one, this bull flag formed after another sharp move up, indicating a potential continuation. The price is currently in the process of consolidating in this flag, which makes this an area of interest for a potential entry on a breakout.
Trade Implication : Both flags suggest that the market is in a bullish phase. You could consider entering on a breakout above the upper bull flag, aiming for continuation to the upside.
3. Support/Resistance Zones:
1-Hour Liquidity Zones (LQZ):
The chart shows two 1-hour liquidity zones:
Upper LQZ (Around 2660): Price is consolidating just below this area. This zone could act as short-term resistance but would be a strong area for a breakout and continuation move higher.
Lower LQZ (Around 2640): Should the price reject from the upper bull flag, this area is the next potential support zone where price could find liquidity and buyers might step back in.
4-Hour Liquidity Zone (Around 2622): This lower level is a major support area. If price retraces significantly, this could be a high-probability area for a reversal or continuation of the overall bullish trend.
Trade Implication: If the price breaks above the 1-hour LQZ (Upper), it could trigger a bullish continuation. If rejected, you might look for a retracement back to the lower LQZ or even the 4-hour LQZ for a potential buying opportunity.
4. Pattern Confirmation & Confluences:
Multi-Touch Confirmation:
The price has interacted with significant levels multiple times (ascending channel, bull flags, and liquidity zones), strengthening the idea that these levels are respected by the market. This gives added confidence in the patterns you are trading off of, such as bull flags and support levels.
Trinity Rule:
Before entering a trade, ensure you have at least three confluences. In this case, potential confluences include:
Price staying within the ascending channel.
Bull flag formation at the current level.
Proximity to key liquidity zones.
With these three factors, you can confidently look for a continuation to the upside.
5. Price Action Signals:
Correction vs. Impulse:
If the market continues to move upwards impulsively, it supports the bullish continuation thesis. However, if it begins to correct, expect a pullback towards the lower boundaries of the liquidity zones or the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
Trade Implication: If you see a sharp impulse (breakout of the upper bull flag), it could be a signal to enter long positions, while a slow corrective move might indicate waiting for a better entry lower.
6. Risk Management:
Stop Placement:
Place your stop loss below the lower boundary of the second bull flag or below the most recent swing low. For a safer trade, consider setting the stop just below the lower 1-hour LQZ (2640), where price may likely find support.
Trade Implication: This gives the trade room to breathe while protecting against a deeper pullback.
Take Profit:
Based on the bullish pattern, your first take profit should be just above the upper 1-hour LQZ around 2660, with the next take profit near the next liquidity zone or potential resistance levels further up.
7. Probable Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If price breaks above the upper 1-hour LQZ and the current bull flag, it could rally towards the next significant resistance level (around 2670-2680).
Bearish Scenario : If price rejects from the upper bull flag and falls below the lower 1-hour LQZ, it could retrace to the 4-hour LQZ around 2620. This area would then offer a high-probability long entry.
Summary of the Trade:
Bias: Bullish (based on the ascending channel, bull flags, and liquidity zones).
Entry Strategy:
Enter on a breakout above the upper bull flag, with the price moving above 2660.
Alternatively, if the price retraces, enter near the 2640 (lower 1-hour LQZ) or 2622 (4-hour LQZ).
Stop Loss: Below the lower 1-hour LQZ (2640) or the recent swing low within the bull flag consolidation.
Take Profit: Around 2670-2680 (based on the next potential resistance and liquidity zones).
Entry Types Simplified: The Essential Guide for New Traders!Key Structures and Formations:
Ascending Channel:
The price has been moving within this channel for a while. An ascending channel indicates an uptrend but also signals that the price is forming higher highs and higher lows, which can later break either direction.
Bull Flag:
A classic continuation pattern where after a strong bullish move (flagpole), the price consolidated before continuing upwards. This was a great entry point for traders watching for bullish momentum.
Failed Flag:
It appears there was a bull flag that failed to continue upwards and instead reversed direction. This type of failure is a strong indication for traders to reconsider their long positions or take partial profits. Often when a flag fails, it can lead to an aggressive move in the opposite direction.
Zones:
4HR, 1HR, 15M LQZ (Liquidity Zones):
These zones mark areas where liquidity is expected to be high, which means these are key levels to watch for price reactions.
The 4HR LQZ around 2,622 and the 1HR LQZ around 2,639 are critical areas for price retracement or reversals, particularly in a trending market.
Current Price Action:
The price is currently hovering near the 15M LQZ (2,655.443), which could act as a short-term support/resistance level. Watching how the price reacts to this zone will provide insight into the next move.
If the price continues to drop, the 1HR LQZ around 2,639 may provide support. If that fails, the next likely target is the 4HR LQZ near 2,622.
Recommendations Based on Confluence:
Check for Multi-Touch Confirmation: If the price interacts with the 4HR or 1HR LQZ zones multiple times and forms a base, this could serve as strong confirmation of a potential reversal or continuation.
Comprehensive Patterns: The failed flag within the larger ascending channel provides a great example of how smaller patterns (failed flag) can give clues about larger moves (channel break).
Follow the Trinity Rule: As per the Trinity Rule, wait for multiple confirmations across different structures before entering a trade. The liquidity zones and patterns within patterns provide a good basis for this.
3 Stages For Optimal Entry!There are 3 cycles you should allow the market to go through, when you are looking to enter a trade. These 3 cycles are:
1.Consolidation
2. Manipulation
3. Expansion
Monitoring price action & allowing these patterns to play out, allows you to take an optimal entry point, add confluences to your trade and increase your risk to reward (R:R).
How to Adapt Your Trading Plan to Any Market ConditionDaily Trendline Break and Market Structure
The break of the daily trendline suggests potential bearish momentum. However, as the break appears corrective, we must be cautious about interpreting it as a reversal too early. As described in the Trinity Rule, it’s crucial to evaluate whether price is moving impulsively or correctively before deciding.
The market could be forming an arcing structure, which traps traders on the wrong side before reversing, as mentioned in Pattern Separation. This aligns with the idea that the market may retest the trendline or break structure in the opposite direction after a fake-out.
Lower Timeframe Ascending Channel
There is an ascending channel on the lower timeframes, which typically signals continuation of the bullish trend unless there’s a strong breakout to the downside. This is where the Multi-Touch Confirmation comes in; if we get a third touch on this channel without a break, it could present a strong reversal signal.
However, if the price decisively breaks the ascending channel with strong momentum, the next step would be to look for a flag or corrective structure for an entry into the bearish continuation, as highlighted in Running Channels.
High-Probability Trade Setup
Impulse and Correction:
As per Entry Types, a high-probability trade should be executed after the first impulse following a correction. If the price breaks out of the ascending channel, wait for a correction (such as a flag) before entering a short position.
You may look for a third touch confirmation to enhance the probability of success.
Risk Management:
Don’t rush the entry based solely on the trendline break. Ensure the structure evolves, showing a confirmed breakout, especially on higher timeframes.
Manage your stop loss based on market structure rather than arbitrary levels. For instance, if the market presents an impulsive move after breaking the channel, your stop could be above the last lower high.
Market Structure and Valid Trades
Evolve Structure: Continuously update your structure by considering the most recent touches. This avoids getting caught in outdated setups.
Where Are We in Structure?: Evaluate whether the price is impulsively breaking key levels or showing corrective behavior. If momentum is lacking after the trendline break, the bearish setup may not play out.
Trade Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
Price Breaks the Ascending Channel: If the price breaks with momentum, look for a retest or flag formation to enter short.
Manage Your Position: As the Rule of Three suggests, avoid perfectionism. If the market forms a strong flag or corrective structure, trust the process and adjust your stop as the trade moves in your favor.
Bullish Scenario (Long Setup) :
Price Fails to Break the Channel: If the market respects the ascending channel, this could indicate a continuation of the bullish trend. You could enter long after the third touch confirmation or a clear rejection of lower levels.
Multi-Touch Confirmation: This will be a key factor if the market holds within the channel.
Key Considerations
Impulse and Confirmation: Be patient for the first impulse and correction before committing to a trade.
Stay Neutral: Use running channels and the overall structure to keep a neutral mindset until the market gives a clear signal.
Avoid Perfectionism: Don’t hesitate or wait for the “perfect” setup if multiple confluences align. Stick to your pre-trade checklist to avoid overanalyzing.
CADCJF short bullish push expected technically based
CADCHF we can see SYMMETRICAL EXPANDING TRIANGLE is created, currently price on strong zone 0.62900, here on this zone expecting to see bounce.
Technicals are also strong bullish.
Crucial zone is here on 0.63200, if see break or strong bullish push on this zone, that will be good sign for bullish trend here.
TP: 0.63950 (90)
Expect updates on time.
XAUUSD Flag Breakout Mastery – 100 Pips in Just Hours!You executed a fantastic trade on XAUUSD, capturing a solid 100 pips in 3.5 hours. However, there were additional techniques you could have employed to potentially capture more of the overall move:
Higher Time Frame Confluence: Ensuring the overall trend aligns with the smaller time frame breakout can give you confidence to hold for bigger moves.
Trailing Stop Strategy: This could have helped you lock in profits while giving the trade room to continue further.
Recognizing Momentum: The impulsive nature of the move post-breakout was an indication to hold the trade longer. Momentum trading often provides an opportunity for a bigger run.
Extended Targets: using Fibonacci extensions could have encouraged you to hold for additional profit.
Complete Trade Walkthrough
1. Entry Analysis:
Pattern Recognition & Confluence:
Descending Flag (Bullish): You identified and entered at the top of a descending flag, which is a continuation pattern in a bullish market. The breakout from this flag confirmed the upward momentum, making this a high-probability trade.
Confluence Factors:
Breakout Confirmation: Price broke through the descending resistance line, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend.
Support Zone: The prior lows acted as strong support, providing additional confidence that the price would move higher after the breakout.
This was an excellent, well-timed entry based on price structure. You entered right as the market broke out of the flag, aligning with a momentum-based strategy.
2. Price Action (PA) Analysis:
Impulse and Correction Structure:
Impulse Move: After the breakout, price made an impulsive leg upwards, which you capitalized on. This impulsive move is common following a flag pattern breakout, and the price shot up quickly, reflecting a strong buying pressure.
Correction: You entered just before the impulsive leg, after a period of corrective consolidation, which validated your timing. Once price pushed up, there was a brief consolidation before continuing the uptrend.
Momentum Continuation: Price made higher highs after your exit, indicating that momentum was still intact.
The price action displayed clear continuation signals following the breakout, suggesting that the market was still trending upwards.
3. Trade Management:
Time in the Trade:
You were in this trade for 3.5 hours, which aligns with the short-term nature of this flag breakout. However, the trade ran further, reaching up to 350 pips.
Profit Targeting:
Initial Take Profit (100 pips): You wisely took 100 pips as price approached a prior high. However, the fact that price continued upwards suggests that you might have captured more pips using alternative techniques.
Exit Consideration:
100 Pips Exit: While exiting at a previous high is logical, the lack of signs of reversal (e.g., no strong bearish candles or rejection at key resistance levels) indicated there was still room for the move to extend. The price continuing upward shows that the bullish momentum was strong, and you could have held on for a larger move.
Stop-Loss Placement:
You didn’t mention your stop-loss, but if you placed it below the structure of the flag (and adjusted it accordingly), this would have allowed you to reduce risk and hold for a longer run.
4. Potential Improvements:
Higher Time Frame Analysis (HTF Confluence):
HTF Context: Had you zoomed out to a higher time frame (1H or 4H), you may have seen that the breakout was part of a larger bullish trend, indicating there was potential for the move to continue beyond the 100-pip target.
Price Momentum: The momentum post-breakout on smaller time frames was strong. Checking the HTF would have given more confidence that this wasn’t just a short-term spike, but rather part of a more significant trend.
Trailing Stop Strategy:
Trailing Stops: Once your trade was 100 pips in profit, instead of closing the position entirely, you could have moved your stop-loss up to lock in some profits. This way, you could ride the larger move while managing risk.
Example: After 100 pips, trail your stop just below the previous consolidation or a key structure (e.g., 50 pips back), allowing the trade to breathe and move further in your favor.
Extended Profit Targeting:
Fibonacci Extensions: By using Fibonacci extensions, you could have projected extended profit targets beyond the initial 100 pips. Typically, a flag breakout can lead to an impulse equal to the size of the flagpole, offering more opportunities to scale out of the trade gradually.
These Market Structures Are Crucial for EveryoneIn this article, we will simplify complex market structures by breaking them down into easy-to-understand patterns. Recognizing market structure can enhance your trading strategy, increase your pattern recognition skills in various market conditions. Let’s dive into some essential chart patterns that every trader should know.
Double Bottom / Double Top
A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs when the price tests a support level twice without breaking lower, indicating strong buying interest. This pattern often suggests that the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential uptrend may follow. Conversely, a double top signals a bearish reversal, formed when the price tests a resistance level twice without breaking through. This pattern indicates selling pressure and suggests that the uptrend may be coming to an end.
Bull Flag / Bear Flag
A bull flag is a continuation pattern that appears after a strong upward movement. It typically involves a slight consolidation period before the trend resumes, providing a potential entry point for traders looking to capitalize on the ongoing bullish momentum. On the other hand, a bear flag forms during a downtrend, signaling a brief consolidation before the price continues its downward movement. Recognizing these flags can help traders identify potential breakout opportunities.
Bull Pennant / Bear Pennant
A bull pennant is a continuation pattern that forms after a sharp price increase, followed by a period of consolidation where the price moves within converging trendlines. This pattern often indicates that the upward trend is likely to continue after the breakout. Conversely, a bear pennant forms after a sharp decline, with the price consolidating within converging lines. This pattern suggests that the downtrend may resume after the breakout.
Ascending Wedge / Descending Wedge
An ascending wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that often forms during a weakening uptrend. It indicates that buying pressure is slowing down, and a reversal may be imminent. Traders should be cautious as this pattern suggests a potential downtrend ahead. In contrast, a descending wedge appears during a downtrend and indicates that selling pressure is weakening. This pattern may signal a bullish reversal, suggesting a possible upward breakout in the near future.
Triple Top / Triple Bottom
A triple top is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after the price tests a resistance level three times without breaking through, indicating strong selling pressure. This pattern can help traders anticipate a potential downtrend. Conversely, a triple bottom is a bullish reversal pattern where the price tests support three times before breaking higher. This pattern highlights strong buying interest and can signal a significant upward move.
Cup and Handle / Inverted Cup and Handle
The cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern resembling a rounded bottom, followed by a small consolidation phase (the handle) before a breakout. This pattern often indicates strong bullish sentiment and can provide a solid entry point. The inverted cup and handle is the bearish counterpart, signaling potential downward movement after a rounded top formation, suggesting that a reversal may occur.
Head and Shoulders / Inverted Head and Shoulders
The head and shoulders pattern is a classic bearish reversal signal characterized by a peak (head) flanked by two smaller peaks (shoulders). This formation indicates a potential downtrend ahead, helping traders to identify possible selling opportunities. The inverted head and shoulders pattern serves as a bullish reversal indicator, suggesting that an uptrend may follow after the price forms a trough (head) between two smaller troughs (shoulders).
Expanding Wedge
An expanding wedge is formed when price volatility increases, characterized by higher highs and lower lows. This pattern often indicates market uncertainty and can precede a breakout in either direction . Traders should monitor this pattern closely, as it can signal potential trading opportunities once a breakout occurs.
Falling Channel / Rising Channel / Flat Channel
A falling channel is defined by a consistent downtrend, with price movement contained within two parallel lines. This pattern often suggests continued bearish sentiment. Conversely, a rising channel indicates an uptrend, with price moving between two upward-sloping parallel lines, signaling bullish momentum. A flat channel represents sideways movement, indicating consolidation with no clear trend direction, often leading to a breakout once the price escapes the channel.
P.S. It's essential to remember that market makers, whales, smart investors, and Wall Street are well aware of these structures. Sometimes, these patterns may not work as expected because these entities can manipulate the market to pull money from unsuspecting traders. Therefore, always exercise caution, and continuously practice and hone your trading skills.
What are your thoughts on these patterns? Have you encountered any of them in your trading? I’d love to hear your experiences and insights in the comments below!
If you found this breakdown helpful, please give it a like and follow for more technical insights. Stay tuned for more content, and feel free to suggest any specific patterns you’d like me to analyze next!
Unlock the Market's Hidden Rollercoaster: How to Ride the WavesXau/Usd Review with my trading personality
As a Whimsical Rollercoaster Enthusiast, your trading style is likely driven by the excitement of quick market movements and the thrill of capturing early trades. You're probably someone who thrives on dynamic entries, enjoys the fast-paced action, and may have a more intuitive approach to the market. Let’s blend that with risk management to balance your adventurous spirit while still keeping a solid trading plan.
Technical Review for a Whimsical Rollercoaster Trader:
1. Key Levels to Watch:
2,595 (Resistance) and 2,580 (Support) are your playgrounds right now. You’re drawn to the thrill of what might happen at these zones.
If price pushes toward 2,595, you might feel an urge to jump in, expecting an immediate reaction. However, I encourage you to:
Embrace your adventurous nature but temper it with tactical precision.
Let the level hit and then wait for a quick confirmation (like a wick rejection or a mini pullback). This gives you both the excitement of early entry and higher probability without losing your edge.
Scenario: Price pushes toward 2,595. Here, your Risk Entry could be triggered:
Risk-Entry Plan:
Enter short at the first rejection of 2,595.
Set a tight stop-loss just above the liquidity zone (2,600), respecting your love for quick moves but protecting from being shaken out too soon.
Target the 2,580 area first, knowing the ride might be wild but worth it.
Why it suits you: It’s a quick decision, satisfying your need for speed, while the tight stop-loss aligns with managing risk. You get that thrill, but within guardrails.
2. Confirmation Entry – Building Momentum:
Confirmation Entries might feel a bit “slow” to you, but they can help ensure you stay in the game longer. Consider them when you want to ride bigger moves, not just quick scalp trades.
Scenario: If price breaks through 2,595, wait for a retest to confirm this zone is now support. Here’s where you bring in your whimsical nature: instead of waiting too long, spot a smaller timeframe pattern, like a bullish engulfing candle or a rejection wick, and go long.
Confirmation-Entry Plan:
Enter long at the retest of 2,595 after a clear rejection pattern. Think of it as waiting for the next loop on the rollercoaster — the bigger move is coming, and you want to be on board for it.
Set a slightly wider stop-loss, maybe under 2,580, to allow the trade to develop without getting knocked out early.
Aim for the next higher liquidity zones, like 2,600 or 2,615.
Why it suits you: This method still lets you catch the excitement of a momentum breakout, but the confirmation gives you more confidence. You still get the rush but with less risk of getting thrown out before the big move.
3. Patterns Within Patterns – Your Playground:
As a Whimsical Rollercoaster Enthusiast, you probably love when the market shows intricate patterns — they're like hidden rollercoaster tracks, revealing sudden twists and turns.
Scenario: If price breaks above 2,595, zoom into lower time frames and look for miniature patterns within the broader trend. You might find a bull flag within a larger ascending channel. Entering on these small corrective patterns can satisfy your need for fast-paced decision-making while riding the overall trend.
Plan:
Use these smaller patterns for quick entries. Set your stops just outside the pattern, and take profits quickly as the price breaks out.
Think of it as riding the small waves, but always looking for the bigger momentum move to follow.
Why it suits you: You’re jumping in on short-term opportunities while always keeping an eye on the next big move. This keeps you engaged and allows you to take action when you feel that burst of adrenaline without losing sight of the bigger picture.
4. Managing Whimsical Risk:
Stop-loss flexibility: As someone who enjoys spontaneity, a tight stop might feel restrictive but necessary. Here’s the compromise:
Set initial stops tight (like just above 2,595 if shorting), but allow yourself room to evolve the trade based on market action. If the trade moves in your favor, quickly move the stop to breakeven.
Mental Resilience: Losses will happen, but you need that mental discipline to jump back in without chasing every tick. Treat each trade like a separate rollercoaster ride — whether it’s a good or bad one, there’s always another one coming.
Use your intuition and excitement to recognize evolving setups. But keep a few rules in place to avoid the pitfalls of impulsivity (e.g., no more than 3 trades per day on a single idea to avoid over-trading).
5. Incorporating the Rule of Three:
For the rollercoaster trader, the Rule of Three is your ultimate guide. This rule asks you to identify at least three confirming factors before entering a trade:
Scenario: Price reaches 2,595:
You see a rejection (touch #1).
The lower time frame shows consolidation or a mini bear flag (touch #2).
Momentum begins to fade (touch #3).
Action: This triple confirmation allows you to short confidently, knowing you have the right mix of signals to back your bold entry.
Why it suits you: The Rule of Three still gives you the excitement of quickly entering trades but ensures they are high-probability setups. It prevents you from overtrading out of sheer excitement while still letting you capture those thrilling moves.
Summary Action Plan for a Whimsical Rollercoaster Trader:
Risk Entry: When you feel the market is ready to react at key levels (like 2,595), dive in! But do it smartly — use tight stop-losses and a quick decision-making process. Think of it as jumping onto the coaster right before it starts moving.
Confirmation Entry: Use this when you're looking for a bigger, smoother ride. Wait for the breakout-retest combo, then get in for the larger trend move. Stay patient here; it’s worth the wait.
Patterns within Patterns: Zoom into the mini rollercoasters inside the bigger structure. Catch the small waves but keep your eyes on the longer ride.
Trinity Rule : Ensure three factors align before entering. This rule keeps you disciplined while still embracing your whimsical nature.