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MDLZ: +17% or Bye Bye BullsTechnical Analysis of Mondelez Internation, Inc (MDLZ) From Left to Right (Monthly - Weekly - Daily - Hourly) First of all, this was discovered as potentially interesting using the Screener to identify assets with ADX moving above 15 on the Weekly chart. "Some of the best buy signals are found when ADX is below 15 and begins to rise." - Chuck Le Beau (Author of 'Technical Traders Guide to Computer Analysis of the Futures Markets') All Timeframes View : Monthly : Here a pattern repeats 2 times previously and I expect it may happen again now. The price is trending up with SMA 10 above EMA 30. Price pulled back into the Sweet Spot between the two and provides a buying opportunity to Swing Traders. The Stochastics (5,3,3) go low and cross bullish while creating a bullish candlestick reversal pattern. RSI (5) crosses above 50. Weekly : A Fibonacci Channel connects the first two shown uptrend lows and the highest high between them (all candlestick reversal patterns). The circled areas on the Weekly chart are the same ones on the Monthly. Notice that they all occur on the 200 period EMA. Note: What is different this time around is the black candle of sellers at the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This did not happen the previous two times. Perhaps this is indicative that price will not this time hit the 0.618 level as it did the previous two times. If that's the case we have an important bearish clue here. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) just had a Weekly TD Sequential 9 Sell signal which precipitated the market turning around and this was further reflected in chart patterns on stocks like Apple (AAPL) which showed a Head & Shoulders on the Daily chart (not illustrated). The recent large gap down (Falling Window) patterns across the market coincided with the shoulder line. In any case, you may have observed like I have that price has steadily and with continued bullish vigor risen above the shoulder line. Steve Nison quoted someone saying, "There's nothing more bullish than a failed Head & Shoulders". What is a failed Head & Shoulders if not one which promptly regains the shoulder line as AAPL is demonstrating. In that case, if things are as bullish as they may appear, then the black candle on the Weekly Mondelez chart simply captures this market experience but will not negate repeating the pattern of now heading to target the 0.618 price area around $82. Daily : The white circles on this chart are the current and previous circles on the Weekly and Monthly charts. Note the Falling Window on the left. This was supposed to be an area of resistance but bulls broke out of it and then pulled back to test it for support (first circle). The current up move started with the Bullish Engulfing Pattern at this confirmed Falling Window resistance-turned-support level (Change of Polarity). Price gapped up after that and later pulled back to test the new Rising Window for support. This behavior led the crossing of the moving averages. Price broke out of the green rectangle which was previously resistance. It was tested multiple time for support and buyers were present in numbers to carry price up to the previous pink polarity resistance level. You can see the long upper shadow confirming sellers at this level. Hourly : So what do you see? A buying opportunity in the Sweet Spot between the moving averages on a new Pivot Low or does this represent the final hopes and delusions of bulls? :)
NASDAQ:MDLZLong
by zerocashcool
BTC: Trading PlanThe one week chart is the Golden Key to understanding Bitcoin's price movement. At this time, Bitcoin is under a zone of resistance, as can be seen on the left side of the chart. This resistance began forming the Week of February 15th and continues to this very moment. As far as Nison candlestick trading strategy goes, look to MA 3/12. Observe on the chart that price has always followed the direction of the Golden/Dead Cross, and that the market is now at an inflection point. When looked at from a Weekly perspective, waiting to trade these setups can be very profitable for the patient, and allows for one entry and one exit weeks/months apart at great profit. The market now forms a Doji, as defined by Steve Nison in his Strict Candlestick Criteria: Basic Criteria: - Open and close the same (or within a few cents or pips) - Market trending up or down - Also called a cross - Doji in a rally called a Northern Doji - Doji in a decline called Southern Doji - "A time to wait without a position in the market" Pattern Psychology: - For a sustainable rally market has to be "pushed up" - a Doji shows the bullish momentum has now been curbed. The bulls now become concerned with this lack of sustained strength. - Markets can sink of their own weight (i.e. don't need sellers to pull markets lower- lack of buyers will do that) a Doji hints buyers are now starting to absorb supply. - The market is at a delicate turning period and could go either way. The Daily chart shows price within the PB&J short Sweetspot between MA 10 & EMA 30, after a Dead Cross. The PB&J trading strategy is to short on bearish reversal signals within the Sweetspot. The most recent candlestick pattern formed by the close of the prior two candles was a Bearish Engulfing Pattern. This sets horizontal resistance at the high of the pattern: $59,239.19 (INDEX:BTCUSD). On the 4H chart I have drawn what appears to me a Bullish Pennant. Please correct me if I'm mistaken as I have not studied chart patterns and I may have this completely wrong. The upper resistance line is significant, while the lower support line shows the more short term bullish effort. Here is where a trading plan can begin to form on a lower time frame basis to potentially indicate the most profitable entry point. Now, if this is indeed a Bullish Pennant, price MUST break out on higher volume to sustain the breakout. My hypothesis thus becomes: Bulls WILL attempt a breakout of the high of the pattern. IF the breakout occurs on higher volume, a long position can be considered. Do beware however, again, the price is under a zone of resistance. That resistance only becomes support after a breakout and pullback test for support which finds buyers. As such, do consider that this is a high risk entry and the conservative thing to do would be to wait for buyers at these levels to assume all of the risk. Their success or failure can be exploited to the long and short side most easily. A few quotes as food for thought: "The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" - Warren Buffett. “The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.” - Jesse Livermore "The main purpose of the market is to make fools of as many men as possible." - Bernard Baruch "The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time." - Jesse Livermore. Finally, zooming into the 1H chart I can see that the Bullish Pennant has formed an area of consolidation under increasingly lower volume. Let's see what happens on the closing candles after a breakout attempt. Will the breakout occur at high volume? What will the candles show? Will we see large upper shadows showing sellers overcoming buyer's efforts? My plan will be to wait for the expected breakout and exploit foolish traders at what may well be the high of this move. I will set my Stop Loss above the high of the bearish candlestick reversal pattern, and trail my stop down with an interest in not getting stopped out as prices continue to plummet over the days and weeks to come. If however buyers do break out of the pennant at high volume, I will wait for the sellers to bring price back to test the zone of resistance for support, and if it proves to have sufficient buyers, that will confirm the Change of Polarity (COP) - old resistance becoming new support. This is my trading plan. Good luck and good fortune!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by zerocashcool
3
DNKN Dunkin Brands accumulation prior to April earningsI am scaling in a small position in $DNKN Dunkin Brands. I initiated the position the morning of 2015.03.10. My strategy: "#3 Supply Headwind" from early December 2014 flipped to "#3 Demand Tailwind" in early January at the same time "2 Demand" kicked in. In retrospect, hat was the time to buy! However, the next best thing happened. DNKN made its first pull back in a probable uptrend after pushing above the support / resistance level of 44.50 - 44.75. The "Tailwind" is still in play and the "#2 Supply" from 2015.02.06 has flipped back to "#2 Demand" on 2015.02.25 followed by lower level demand signals on 2015.03.05 & 10. Note... my Cyclical Support and Resistance Levels" code needs a lot of data. It cannot calculate any s/r level above L5 in DNKN so far. This is because the issue date is to new. L5 s/r needs almost 3 years of data to make the call. My program has six levels of support and resistance higher. Fundamentally, the earnings bar was lowered this coming quarter. I believe the Street will want to position this up near the highs to take advantage of a short squeeze on a whisper beat. The pro desks have been accumulating under $44 in anticipation of a move higher. This is also a domestic tilt and does not come with the currency issues facing mult-nationals in the space.
DLong
by kilo1romeo
3
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings above $169 bullishAs $BWLD maintains above $169 zone this is bullish for another leg up. I suspect distribution up here, but that does not mean another notch higher. It looks like investors have given BWLD a pass on the last quarter. Accumulation came back in just before the gap up. $200 looks good. Watch out after that with only 7% upside before more selling into strength by the street... in my opinion. So in conclusion... I would ride this to $200 then trim & trail if I had current position. Excess supply signals are piling up as you can see. in Sept - Oct 2014 Excess demand signals started calculating prior to the run after earnings then the short squeeze.
BLong
by kilo1romeo
1
EAT Brinker short interest spikes at recent highs.$EAT Brinker Intl... relative to the casual dining segment is a leader in p/e, roe operating margins and sports a 1.89% div yield funded by massive debt. Debt/Equity = 189% vs BWLD 0.07. Operation margins are excellent vs the group but gross margins lag considerably. EAT currently trades at an astronomical 739.50 times book value vs BWLD 6.18 times. A little financial engineering? Borrow to pay dividends and buybacks... YES. I cannot justify a new position up here. Short interest has been rising since Sept 2014 but has dropped off somewhat since the beginning of the year. You can see the spikes as pro traders jump on any weakness. I would be more concerned about a plunge if EAT Brinker fails to engineer a quarter or two that beats the street's expectations. Always do you own due diligence.
NYSE:EAT
by kilo1romeo
3