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PBR

EWZ: Likely bottomed or bottoming here...Brazil is extremely washed out, but it has held a long term support level so far. I think odds are the market turns up from here. I'm long $PBR in particular, since it is showing tremendous relative strength vs the brazilian market, and it has a long way to go to catch up to oil, closing the gigantic spread it now has. The situation with the CEO resigning caused further headwinds in the stock, but it has now stabilized and coiling against overhead supply...over time it will break above it following the earnings report most likely -as long as the fundamental story doesn't change and debt continues to be tackled effectively...-. As for the $EWZ chart, we have hit a monthly low volume support, and also the lowest point of the last time they almost impeach Temer, this was a huge capitulation day for many investors and it is where most stocks bottomed back then. I'd look into finding interesting brazilian companies rather than buying the index directly, but it gives us a good reference point here. Another interesting chart is $EEM, and the Chinese stock market, both of which are also affected by the rally in the dollar that we had so far. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:EWZLong
by IvanLabrie
6
OPENING: PBR OCT/DEC 11/10 COVERED LONG COMBO... for a .58/contract credit. Max Profit on Setup: $158/contract (the width of the spread plus the credit received) Max Loss on Setup: $958 (assuming you do nothing and the underlying goes to zero) Break Even: 9.42 Delta: 47.77 Theta: .62 Notes: A small buying power effect, cost basis reduction setup in a high implied volatility petro underlying battered by negative emerging market sentiment, and, well, everything else that's recently been wrong with Brazil. I have a good-'til-cancelled order in to take profit at 50% the width of the spread, but we'll see how it goes ... . Went out a little farther out in time that I usually like to go to get a break even I'm comfortable with.
NYSE:PBRLong
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: PBR, USO, GE, T, ORCL, EWZWith various things Brazilian in implosion mode, it's no surprise that PBR and EWZ have high implied volatility here. PBR: Bullish Assumption Setups: The July 20th 30 delta 9 put is paying .43/contract, resulting in an 8.57 break even, which isn't very compelling, but might appeal to some smaller account holders who are willing to hold the short put until near worthless and or roll for duration/further cost basis reduction should the worst not be over (check out the weekly). The natural alternative is a synthetic covered call with the short put at the 70 delta 11 strike, which pays 1.55, and gives you a 9.55 break even. I would work the synthetic as a "money, take, run" affair and look to take profit at 50% max or sooner. Neutral Assumption Setups: The July 20th 10 short straddle pays 1.56 at the mid, with break evens at 8.44 and 11.56. Generally, I look to take profit on these at 25% (here, .39), but would naturally be prepared for a bumpy ride and to make adjustments as things unfold. USO: I generally don't like this instrument a ton as a petro play due to its size, with my preferred go-to's being XOP, XLE, and (when in a pinch), OIH. However, if you're willing to go a little larger than you usually would with contracts, it can be productive. The July 20th 13 short straddle pays .93/contract and is skewed quite short delta wise (-20.93). To neutralize some of that, I could see doing a July 27th "double straddle" with one straddle at the 13 and one at the 13.5 (you need to move to the weeklies to get the half strikes). That would pay 2.01 per contract, give you break evens at 12.25 and 14.25, and reduce the directionality to -9.67 delta. Taking profit on the whole shebang at 25% max (.50) wouldn't be horrible. GE and T: Both have earnings around the July monthly; I'd hold off putting on plays, opting instead to play for vol contraction around earnings ... . ORCL: Announces in 9 days, so sit on your hands and play the announcement. EWZ: With underlyings under $50, I've been short straddling or iron flying. The July 20th 34 short straddle pays 3.09, with break evens at 30.91 and 37.09. Naturally, that isn't for everyone, since short straddles and iron flies generally skew out delta-wise fairly immediately, so they're not "nervous nellie" trades or trades for the "delta anal"; for those kids, the July 20th 31/37 short strangle camped out around the 20 delta strikes might make more sense; it's paying .98.
NYSE:PBR
by NaughtyPines
PBR: Bottom's in...We are long here from 9.66ish, sadly I couldn't publish before cause I was on the go, but well. My clients and me already bought. Now it's back over the monthly mode, and a key earnings support level, so if holding over this zone,it should be safe to accumulate positions in this stock, now that buyers capitulated with news of the CEO resigning. Debt restructuring had gone very well so far, and I expect it to continue to be that way. Let's see what happens with demands from truck drivers who are in strike...Fuel prices could affect the company's returns if the government intervenes. I think it won't happen, and investor's fears of bankruptcy risk will be proven to have been overblown. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:PBRLong
by IvanLabrie
9
Copper: Market barometer...Monthly trend signal activeCopper has once again fired an uptrend signal, similar to what happened during November 2016 and July 2017. If we track the relationship between copper and $EEM, $SPY, $PBR and $USOIL, we can see that every time copper breaks out into a trend, there is a bottom in in emerging markets and oil, and $SPY receives a boost if bullish, or, could form a turning point as well. Every time Copper has hit one of the targets or time targets, we had a correction in other markets shortly after. In this regard, it acts as a very effective barometer for growth and broad market health. I'm rotating towards EMs after having sold my hefty $SPY position yesterday at the open. I'm bullish on $EEM, $PBR, $USOIL, and others (like Argentina), the valuations are attractive and spreads vs developed markets offer a great arbitrage opportunity as well. Avid pair traders might be able to short select US equities and long EMs against, or play the spread between copper and oil that currently is an attractive proposition as well. The monthly rally in oil has at least 2-3 more months according to the signals from 'Time @ Mode' analysis that I could find, and upside to a maximum of roughly $89. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:COPPERLong
by IvanLabrie
4
Bullish PBR Moving Average CrossOn April 10, 2017, Petrobras ( PBR ) crossed over its 200 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 47 times and the stock does not always continue to rise. It has a median gain of 5.428% and maximum gain of 22.706% over the next 15 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 54.9389. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral but has been trending up. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -10.0095. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading, although negative, declares the stock is moving up. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2281. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving up. The stochastic oscillator K value is 70.8279 and D value is 80.0101. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock just began a reversal downward. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading up. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain another 4.00% over the next 15 trading days.
NYSE:PBR
by StockSignaler
PBR looking to drop some moreOn March 24, 2017 the Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) 50 day moving average (MA) crossed below its 150 day. Historically this has occurred 14 times. When this happens, the stock drops a minimum of 3.057%, has a median drop of 6.215% and maximum drop of 30.567% over the next 14 trading days. This last occurred in August 2014. The stock dropped 24.08% over the next 24 trading days and ultimately bottomed out 102 trading days since the crossover with a loss of 44.69% When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 39.7506. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly heading upward but no distinct direction is known. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -21.4752. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The last two times the TSI dropped below this level the stock continued to drop. The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1227. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. This stock has a history of floating around this level and going higher in all of the last 5 times this crossover has occurred. Overall outlook of this indicator is downward. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current downtrend, the stock could drop at least another 3.80% over the next four weeks.
NYSE:PBRShort
by StockSignaler
3
Que paliza dejo hoy la vela de $PBREn el día de Hoy la vela de $PBR dejo una vela muy pero muy fea, con una baja del mas de 7%. El problema no es la vela que dejo hoy, sino es lo que vendrá. Por mi parte creo que el momento de compra puede ser dentro de los 9/9.10, que mañana puede de arranque ir para ese lado y después salir. Puede ser que por otro lado mañana se de una suba del 2 o 3%... pero si pasa eso siento que es un rebote de gato muerto. En síntesis, compra en la zona de 9/9.10, por ahora estaría liquido hasta que venga a esta zona.
NYSE:PBR
by martindvorkin