GM/PCAR DivergenceAn interesting chart, GM and PCAR has historically moved in the same direction, PCAR makes semi trucks. The past year there has been a major divergence between the two stocks.
Something has to give though.... either we go into a recession and PCAR goes down or we don't and GM goes up. Expect this gap to close in one direction or the other. I still think a recession is the only way out for the Fed to get rid of their MBS, not entirely convinced they have the balls to do it.
This is why I've been rather cautious on trading PCAR. Figured I'd post this chart since I've been bullish on PCAR for the past year. Plus the stock tends to be weak after Q4 earnings, usually until Q2 earnings.
PCAR
Potentially Bearish for PACCAR - DowntrendPACCAR might potentially enter downtrend where it break the support line 101.10 USD previously and formed head and shoulders pattern at the historical high price area.
Always a good opportunity if considering trading short position when just near break out line (refer to the history position of "break out" in the chart) .
Now the price is just near the downtrend break out price where today 100.60 USD (at this moment), this would be consider a good shorting position. If not shoring, at least to be extra careful if you holding PACCAR or do your appropriate trade position adjustment.
For trading strategy, can consider
Short on (buy downtrend) : 99.60 USD to 101.80 range while put your stop loss position if the price go above 104.70 USD with approximately 5.11% risk.
If looking on NASDAQ (refer to my published idea "SQQQ on Bullish Signal Uptrend - Recession is Coming") and S&P 500 (chart below), both index are indicating that high potentially the market are entering bearish market
SPX ETF that tracking on S&P 500
If the overall trend is on bearish, it is very high probability that PACCAR might be in downtrend as well.
Note that “Past performance does not guarantee future performance. This is for just my personal opinion but not trading advise.”
PCAR PACCAR, THE SNAKE PATTERN & SUSTAINABLE AUTONOMOUS TRUCKSPCAR PRICE TARGET 130 for April. Snake pattern high probability.
Heavy funds buying last week. They are going to roll out some autonomous driving capability soon for US and they have increased their sustainability foot print, it is indeed strangely classified as ESG investment.. !?!?
$PCAR ~ It's Time to Short the Trucking IndustryThis entire stock is being propped up, and as tariffs are enacted the sale of heavy trucks will decline as the trucking industry's workload declines. The sale in heavy trucks is cyclical with stocks and these stocks tend to drop the most just as heavy truck sales start to slide. Vice versa, by the time the correction in sales bottoms out stocks have already recovered.
It just so happens a massive 2k slide in sales has just been recorded over the last month and a massive drop is just around the bend. $PCAR's chart overall looks terrible and the macro outlook of things is one massive parabolic advance. It's topping, and it's obvious. Trend rejections are at an all time high and volume is tapering off. I think we will see the biggest correction to date within ~6 months and it's time to load shorts/puts. It's very possible that a 50% or more drop will occur. Take the time to correlate $PCAR's previous corrections to the heavy truck sales chart and you will understand what is to come.
Not to mention, short-term I look for Tesla to make an announcement regarding their autonomous semi's as it's rumored for pre-orders to start soon. This news alone will be a great catalyst to cash out on as major trucking manufactures will see a hit in their stock. The current trucking industry is slow to adapt and other companies beside Tesla are moving in to capitalize as Daimler launches their line of electric semi's. A massive correction is coming and a lot of propped-up companies will die off as the bubble bursts. It's the perfect storm. Don't miss out an easy play!