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PCE

The Put/Call Ratio in a NutshellWhat is the put/call ratio? The put/call ratio (PCE) is a popular barometer of market sentiment, which shows the ratio of trading volumes of Put vs Call options. However, with distortions in the current price of nearly every instrument off the back of "free money," and persistent market intervention by policy makers, we're not quite seeing the price discovery we're used to, which has made it more difficult to make sense of the Put-Call, and other technical indicators as well. What is a derivative? To understand the value of the put/call ratio, we must first understand the derivatives market. A derivative is a (leveraged) instrument, which gives the holder a right to either buy (call) or sell (put) a specific amount of a stock (or other instrument), at a specified price, and timeframe. If your'e holding a put, you're likely expecting the price of the stock to fall, while holders of calls are expecting the price to rise. Puts are usually used as a solid hedging tool, while calls are more often related to speculative behaviour. How to use the put-call ratio? When the put/call rises above 1, it indicates that market sentient is shifting more bearish. At the moment, we're looking at a put/call of around 0.46, which indicates that market sentiment is very bullish, and actually, it's been bullish for quite some time as you can see in the chart. When we see a massive shift in the put/call back above 1, naturally it would be showing that investors and traders are becoming more defensive.
USI:PCEEducation
by Hedge_Of_The_World
32
Canadian dollar rises on strong Manufacturing PMIThe Canadian dollar has kicked off the trading week with strong gains. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2669, down 0.55% on the day. US yields moved higher last week, particularly the 10-year treasuries, which rose as high as 1.6% per cent. This move boosted the US dollar against the major currencies, and USD/CAD climbed close to 1% last week. However, bond yields have since stabilised. Yields on the US 10-year treasuries are back around 1.40%. I expect bonds will continue to fluctuate and cause further volatility in the currency markets. The US dollar index fell below support at the 90-level late last week, but the greenback has flexed some muscle and the index is currently at 91.08. The US economy continues to show signs of recovery, and expectations are high that first-quarter growth will be strong. A major driver behind economic growth is consumer spending, and the January Personal Spending release came in at 2.4%, its best read in seven months. Personal income levels were also up sharply, but inflation levels still remain muted. The Core PCE Price Index, which is believed to be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, remained at 0.3%, a level not exceeded in over 10 years. There are concerns that the massive stimulus program of USD 1.9 trillion could cause higher inflation, and with it the danger of the US economy overheating. After strong gains by USD/CAD late last week, we are seeing a reversal on Monday, with the pair losing ground. Resistance remains strong at 1.2787, as this line has held since the first week in February. Above, we find resistance at 1.2842. USD/CAD is putting pressure on support at 1.2632. If the pair breaks below this line, it could fall sharply, with no support until 1.2532. This is followed by a swing low at 1.2468, which the pair touched late last week.
by OANDA
Canadian dollar rises on strong Manufacturing PMIThe Canadian dollar has kicked off the trading week with strong gains. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2669, down 0.55% on the day. US yields moved higher last week, particularly the 10-year treasuries, which rose as high as 1.6% per cent. This move boosted the US dollar against the major currencies, and USD/CAD climbed close to 1% last week. However, bond yields have since stabilised. Yields on the US 10-year treasuries are back around 1.40%. I expect bonds will continue to fluctuate and cause further volatility in the currency markets. The US dollar index fell below support at the 90-level late last week, but the greenback has flexed some muscle and the index is currently at 91.08. The US economy continues to show signs of recovery, and expectations are high that first-quarter growth will be strong. A major driver behind economic growth is consumer spending, and the January Personal Spending release came in at 2.4%, its best read in seven months. Personal income levels were also up sharply, but inflation levels still remain muted. The Core PCE Price Index, which is believed to be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, remained at 0.3%, a level not exceeded in over 10 years. There are concerns that the massive stimulus program of USD 1.9 trillion could cause higher inflation, and with it the danger of the US economy overheating. After strong gains by USD/CAD late last week, we are seeing a reversal on Monday, with the pair losing ground. Resistance remains strong at 1.2787, as this line has held since the first week in February. Above, we find resistance at 1.2842. USD/CAD is putting pressure on support at 1.2632. If the pair breaks below this line, it could fall sharply, with no support until 1.2532. This is followed by a swing low at 1.2468, which the pair touched late last week. .
by OANDA
3
Recession Watch: PCE growthHere is a chart of quarterly PCE growth, which gives another useful 'recession watch' indicator. It is currently at a critical level and worth keeping a close eye on. Commentary from "The Recession Playbook" from Morgan Stanley: "With growth in real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) below 2.5% sending a reasonably consistent recession signal. Each of the last 5 recessions has seen real PCE actually shrink on a y/y basis by the end of the recession, but leading into the recessions a large decline in the growth of PCE is also very consistent. Given the heavy reliance of the US economy on the domestic consumer, slowing consumer spend is perhaps an obvious precondition for any recession." The chart data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Data site (FRED). fred.stlouisfed.org It can be studied in Tradingview using the ticker: 'QUANDL:FRED/DPCERO1Q156NBEA'
TVC:US10Y
by dime
3