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PDD (PINDUODUO) WILL MAKE NEW LOW BEFOR GOING UPPDD (Pinduoduo) will make a new low around $46 to finish correction and after that, I will most likely go further upside, this is the mid-term view. Short Term - most likely we can go for a new low directly as a preferred count and an alternative count is we can see a small bounce and after that, we will go for a new low. Black line is preferred and red line is a alternative. DISCLOSURE - Please be informed that the information I provide is not a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of my work is for educational purposes only. All labeling and wave count have been done by me manually and I will keep changing according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So don't bias, hope on my trade plans. Try to learn Elliott Wave or other strategies and make your own strategy. Following is not that much easy. I am not responsible for any losses if u took the trade according to my trade plans. #PDD #PINDUODUO #ELLIOTTWAVE
NASDAQ:PDD
by anantadhungana
Pinduoduo: Stellar Performance Reinforces Industry PositionChina's largest e-commerce company is transforming its development strategy. Pinduoduo turned losses into gains in the second quarter of 2021, defending its leading position in the Chinese e-commerce area with 849.9 million annual active buyers. Pinduoduo mainly focuses on lower-tier cities' customers and follows a 'universal social welfare' way to expand its business. Agricultural products and reinforcing networks among farmers and customers may become the next profit points for the company. Dazzling financial results On August 24, 2021, Pinduoduo (PDD: NASDAQ) held it's Q2 2021 earning call, showing rather impressive financial results. Its stock surged over 20% at the beginning of that trading day. Pinduoduo turned losses into gains for the first time in the second quarter of 2021. In Q2 2021, the company achieved revenue of CNY 23.05 billion, up 89% year-on-year. Its operating profit reached nearly CNY 2 billion (with non-GAAP operating profit of CNY 3.19 billion), compared with an operating loss of CNY 1.64 billion. In the remarkable quarter, the company received gains (net income attributable to ordinary shareholders) of CNY 2.41 billion, which is a big move compared with a net loss of CNY 0.90 billion in the same quarter of 2020. The company's basic earnings per ADS increased to USD 0.30, and diluted EPS reached USD 0.27. At the same time, its annual active buyers reached 849.9 million as of June 30, 2021, and average monthly active users (MAUs) increased to 738.5 million, accounting for 87% of its annual active buyers, defending its leading position in China's e-commerce area. Analyzing the financials, we found that Pinduoduo's cost control contributes the most to the result. Due to increased promotion and coupon expenses, the company's sales and marketing expenses only increased 14% to CNY 10.39 billion. In comparison, general and administrative costs only increased 10% to CNY 0.43 billion, compared with the same quarter in 2020. Its operating margin and the net margin reached a historical high in the past three years, accounting for 8.7% and 17.9%, respectively. Notably, its sales and marketing expenses ratio has been cut to 45%, compared with 81% and 73% for the same quarter in 2019 and 2020, showing its consistent cost control efforts. When dissecting its revenue structure, we found online marketing services still act as the primary resource of its revenue, which reached CNY 18.08 billion, up 64% year-on-year. According to the earnings call, this was due to the continued increase in merchant activities while merchants are exploring new ways to engage with users. Meanwhile, revenues from transaction services reached CNY 3.01 billion, surging 164% year-on-year, owing to the fulfillment and services provided in the new Duo Duo Grocery platform. As for the revenues from merchandise sales, as a temporary way to meet user demand for specific products, the income from this section was CNY 1.96 billion. Agriculture may become the key to its future As one of the fastest-growing e-commerce companies globally, Pinduoduo has focused on lower-tier markets' consumption demand, becoming famous for value-for-money goods. Consumers can purchase products at a lower price as a group on its merchandise platform. In this way, consumers are allowed to share feedback regarding products on their social media accounts, further amplifying the advertising influence of the company at the same time. Pinduoduo only needed two years to gain CNY 100 billion GMV (in contrast, Ali Group and JD used five and ten years, respectively). The company went public on Nasdaq in July 2018. Then in March 2021, it became China's most prominent e-commerce giant in terms of MAU. The company is infamous for some of its products' poor quality. Even though most of them are cheap, the quality is often worse than it's desired by consumers. To resolve this issue, here are two solutions: the company could build a higher quality sub-platform, or a more 'universal-type social welfare' platform, with which it can gather profit from a broader population. Pinduoduo chose the second one. In April 2019, the company launched a critical transformation, building the Duo Duo Farms platform to help farmers in China's impoverished counties create new online sales channels. In traditional ways, farmers sell primary products to dealers, and dealers trade themselves. When customers purchase the product, the price has been increased much higher than its cost, which harms both farmers and customers. Then, when PDD becomes the mediator, it connects farmers directly with consumers across the country and applies customer-to-manufactory (C2M) to help them build their brands, forming a win-win situation. By the end of 2020, the platform has helped over 1.13 million farmers to sell over 2.06 million tons of agricultural produce. We think Pinduoduo's transformation had a positive impact on its business operations. Before 2020, Pinduoduo had adopted a low-cost publicity model to convert the advertising fees payable to the media into rewards for users who introduce new customers. However, at this stage, we believe that since user numbers are gradually approaching the ceiling (as over half of the people in China are Pinduoduo's users), the model of wildly attracting new customers may no longer be suitable for the company and is difficult to bring profit growth. Facts have also confirmed our idea that the growth rate of the company's MAUs has been gradually slowing down since 2019. So Pinduoduo turned its developing direction to retain its users and add more value instead of attracting more users. Focusing on China's most prominent supply side is a good strategy – after all, it is a blue ocean with few competitions. Hence, we are optimistic about the long-term development of Pinduoduo and believe that its agricultural focus might generate new opportunities. Valuation and bottom line We used EV/revenue and P/B ratio to value the company. Considering that the company has been able to turn losses into profits and its competitors have much lower ratios, we decided to use the adjusted historical average method. From the chart, it is obvious that the ratio is at a low level, which we think is mainly caused by the regulation changes in China recently. Based on its current financial performance, momentum, and competitive landscape, we calculated that 13.5x EV/revenue and 17.5x P/BV is an appropriate valuation for Pinduoduo in 12 months, which corresponds to a target price of USD 141.52. Key risks 1. Pinduoduo's largest risk comes from possible conflicts with registered merchants. The company provides a favorable discount at the expense of downtrodden platform merchants. Besides, the merchants are the primary resources that benefit most of Pinduoduo's promotion activities. Small-scale merchants find it difficult to survive on this platform. In the long run, we think it will lead to the weakness of the supply side and harm the whole platform. 2. Another risk is that the problem of low-quality products still exists. Since the Pinduoduo platform has more razor-thin margins than other platforms, many merchants chose to sell defective goods in Pinduoduo while selling better goods on Tmall and JD.com. We think it is not conducive to the original impression transformation of the company in the long term. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by EqualOcean
China BigTech - KWEB ETF☝ KWEB - ETF of Chinese tech giants. It is traded on ARCA, but managed by a Chinese bank, so there is no threat of delisting. Price is at the bottom of the channel. Most likely it will be a bottom and there will be a reversal up at least 50% towards the resistance line of $70 by February 2022. The upcoming bullish reversal is confirmed by the MACD-histogram, which is already in a bullish divergence. However, in February 2021, there was a 19.83% move up from the channel. Such a pull-out can be repeated down to the $40 support line. Not a financial recommendation. GET RICH OR DIE TRYIN
AMEX:KWEBLong
by Dr_Chester
1
A butterfly flapping its wings can cause a hurricane in China!You don't need to see an Optometrist, and you did not drink an excessive amount of alcohol, at least I did not, however, I am not sure about you..! There is nothing wrong with you if you see BABA , PDD , JD , NASDAQ:BIDU creates the exact same pattern..! This could be explained in mathematics! What is Chaos Theory? Chaos is the science of surprises, of the nonlinear and the unpredictable. It teaches us to expect the unexpected. While most traditional science deals with supposedly predictable phenomena like gravity, electricity, or chemical reactions, Chaos Theory deals with nonlinear things that are effectively impossible to predict or control, like turbulence, weather, the stock market , our brain states, and so on. These phenomena are often described by fractal mathematics, which captures the infinite complexity of nature. Many natural objects exhibit fractal properties, including landscapes, clouds, trees, organs, rivers etc, and many of the systems in which we live exhibit complex, chaotic behavior. Recognizing the chaotic, fractal nature of our world can give us new insight, power, and wisdom. For example, by understanding the complex, chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere, a balloon pilot can “steer” a balloon to a desired location. By understanding that our ecosystems, our social systems, and our economic systems are interconnected, we can hope to avoid actions which may end up being detrimental to our long-term well-being. Chaos Theory Chaos theory is concerned with unpredictable courses of events. The irregular and unpredictable time evolution of many nonlinear and complex linear systems has been named chaos. Chaos is best illustrated by Lorentz’s famous butterfly effect: the notion that a butterfly stirring the air in Hong Kong today can transform storm systems in New York next month. The definition of deterministic chaos implies that our prediction in the form of a model, for instance, is very sensitive to the initial conditions. The difference between predictions with slightly different initial conditions grows exponentially: d(t)=d(0)eat* where d(t) is the difference between the two predictions at time t and d(0) at time zero, t is the time, and a is a positive number. *at: is the power of e, I do not know how to type power in TradingView..! Chaos theory, more technically nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) theory, is an exciting, rapidly developing area of mathematics with increasing application in the physical, biological, and social sciences. Along with the great metaphorical appeal, nonlinear dynamical systems can also add rigor and realism to human sciences; they may help illuminate creativity, an elusive, sometimes near-magical phenomenon that has defied simple explanations. Chaotic or near-chaotic systems can demonstrate surprising flexibility and adaptability. Despite connotations of ‘chaos,’ they also demonstrate order, complexity, and self-organization. Some relatively simple, mechanistic, completely deterministic systems are capable of surprising, discontinuous, and seemingly unpredictable change. Challenged by Instability and Complexity Challenged by Instability and Complexity… Jan C. Schmidt, in Philosophy of Complex Systems, 2011 1 Introduction: the Stability Assumption Is Unstable … Nonlinear Dynamics — including Complex Systems Theory, Chaos Theory, Synergetics, Dissipative Structures, Fractal Geometry, and Catastrophe Theory — is a young and fascinating field of scientific inquiry that spans many established disciplines (cf. ). However, it poses challenging problems for both scientific methodology and the philosophy of science. Methodological prerequisites as well as metaphysical assumptions are questioned, e.g., predictability, reproducibility, testability, explainability as well as lawlikeness (determinism/causation). The common denominator of all of these challenges is instability — that is the main thesis of this paper. Since the advent of Nonlinear Dynamics and its advancement in the realm of physics in the 1960s — interlaced with methodological developments in computer technology and the computer's ability to numerically handle nonlinearity — further evidence for the existence and prevalence of unstable and complex phenomena in the physical world has emerged. Nonlinear systems, even those with just a few degrees of freedom, can exhibit static, dynamical and structural instabilities. Although instabilities call implicit metaphysical-methodological convictions and well-established underlying prerequisites of mathematical science into question, today they are not viewed in just a negative way. On the contrary, instabilities are highly valued — we find a positivization of instabilities: instabilities constitute the nomological nucleus of self-organization, pattern formation, growth processes, phase transitions and, also, the arrow of time (cf. ). Without instability, there is no complexity and no change. The phenomena generated by underlying instabilities in nature, technology and society are manifest; we can observe these phenomena with our unaided senses. In fact, instability is the root of many homely phenomena in our day-to-day experience — for example, the onset of dripping from a tap or water freezing to ice in a refrigerator. Instability has to be regarded as an empirical fact of our life-world and beyond — not just as a contingent convention. A reconsideration of the traditional methodological-metaphysical stability assumptions therefore seems to be indispensable. (a) In the past, stability was taken for granted as an implicit a priori condition to qualify a mathematical model as physically relevant or adequate. Stability seemed to be a key element underlying any kind of physical methodology: it was regarded as the sole possibility to guarantee the application of methods of approximation and, also, to deal with empirical and experimental uncertainties. (b) In addition to methodology, an underlying metaphysical conviction was pervasive throughout the history of physics, guiding the focus of interest and selecting the objects that were considered worth researching. Framing and conceptualizing nature as “nature” insofar as it is stable, time-invariant and symmetrical (metaphysics), was indeed a successful strategy to advance a specific physical knowledge (methodology). It is interesting to see that metaphysical convictions and methodological considerations are interlaced; there is no clear line between metaphysics and methodology, as will be shown in this paper. Throughout history, stability metaphysics has always played a major role in science, beginning in ancient times with Plato's stability concept of the cosmos. In modern times, stability metaphysics can be found in the works of outstanding physicists such as Newton and Einstein. For instance, in his Opticks Newton did not trust his own nonlinear equations for three- and n-body systems which can potentially exhibit unstable solutions . He required God's frequent supernatural intervention in order to stabilize the solar system. In the same vein, Einstein introduced ad hoc — without any empirical evidence or physical justification — the cosmological constant in the framework of General Relativity in order to guarantee a static and stable cosmos, “Einstein's cosmos” . Both examples, from Newton and Einstein, illustrate that metaphysical convictions — what nature is! — can be incredibly strong, even if they are in conflict with what is known about nature at the time. Today, however, ex post and thanks to the advancement of Nonlinear Dynamics, we can identify a “dogma of stability” that has determined the selection (or construction) of both the objects and the models/theories in physics. “We shall question the conventional wisdom that stability is an essential property for models of physical systems. The logic which supports the stability dogma is faulty.” : the stability assumption is itself unstable! Although the discovery history of instabilities traces back to physicists such as Newton, Laplace, Stokes, Maxwell, Poincaré and Duhem, physical objects were (and often still are) perceived and framed from the perspective of stability — even by the pioneers of instabilities. Throughout the history of exact sciences, instabilities were not acknowledged by the scientific community. This has been changing since the 1960s when physics began widening its methodological horizon — including getting rid of the restriction of methodology to stability requirements. The need to advance physical methodology emerged because instabilities have turned out to be so very fundamental in nature, technology, and even in social processes. In order to deal with instabilities, physicists have over the last 30 years successfully replaced the traditional quantitative, metrically oriented stability dogma by weaker, more qualitative topological characteristics. Many models (theories, laws) in Nonlinear Dynamics are unstable, “and we are confident that these are realistic models of corresponding physical systems” . Nonlinear Dynamics shows that instability is not an epiphenomenon of minor relevance: instabilities are broadly present in our entire world. Discovering and acknowledging instabilities impels both a reconsideration of the metaphysical views that undergird the stability dogma and a revision of the methodological presuppositions. The outline of this paper is as follows: In section 2, I characterize instabilities and distinguish between three kinds of instability. In section 3, I focus on methodological problems and challenges caused by instabilities; the limitations of classical-modern sciences will be discussed. In section 4, I show how present-day physics manages, at least to some degree, to cope with instabilities. Instabilities cannot be considered as exceptions within a stable world. Rather, it is the other way around: instabilities are the source of complexity, pattern formation and self-organization. This is why instabilities do not only appear in a negative light; a positive understanding emerges and shows challenging future prospects and perspectives for the rapidly progressing field of Nonlinear Dynamics — and beyond: for all mathematical sciences. My Soul is painted like the wings of a butterfly..! Moshkelgosha References : www.sciencedirect.com fractalfoundation.org
NYSE:BABAEducation
by Moshkelgosha
11
PINDUODUO Inc. (PDD) | Chinese E-commerce Inside a Buying Area!Hi, Pinduoduo Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform in the People's Republic of China. It operates Pinduoduo, a mobile platform that offers a range of products, including apparel, shoes, bags, mother and childcare products, food and beverage, fresh produce, electronic appliances, furniture and household goods, cosmetics and other personal care items, sports and fitness items, and auto accessories. The company was formerly known as Walnut Street Group Holding Limited and changed its name to Pinduoduo Inc. in July 2018. Pinduoduo Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. Technically speaking, the price of PDD has landed inside the possible rejection area. Quite strong criteria matching each other around $81 to $106: 1. Fibo 62% 2. Minor trendline 3. 50% from the ATH 4. Role reversal 5. Round number Do your own fundamental research and if it looks attractive then you have the technical confirmation from my side to buy it! Regards, Vaido
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by VaidoVeek
10
$AAPL $PDD $BABA $AMAT I OptionsSwing WatchlistPDD 4H I Breakout from massive downtrend with volume. Cathie Woods was adding shares back in March. PDD has to hold the $130 level for continuation and the price target is $150 before next ER. AAPL 1D I Held the bullish uptrend established back in September. Unusual options activity was bullish and they bet on a retest of $128 this upcoming week. AMAT 1H I Testing ATH levels, above $140 it could get some more traction. Amid the current chip shortage AMAT is one of the companies that is tasked with helping the industry catch up. BABA 1D I Massive falling wedge pattern which could break to the upside before earnings on 08/19. The Chinese giant is more than 30% down from ATH levels. However, there is some sense of renewed hope in the company as US investor Charlie Munger recently disclosed a sizable stake in the company.
NYSE:BABA
by optionsswing
PDD: You should be aware of this chart pattern!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about PDD today! It is the first time I analyze this stock, and I hope my insights can be helpful. In this analysis, I'll present you two strategies to follow. First, in the 1h chart, we have a Descending Triangle chart pattern, and the trend is clearly bearish, as the 21 ema is pointing down, and the price can’t trade above it. This makes the situation more favorable to the bears, at least in the short-term , and as long as we don’t see a clear breakout upwards from this Triangle, the bear trend will persist. This Triangle is the best chance PDD has to reverse this bearish sentiment. Now, there’s two strategies we can use. First, if we see an upwards breakout, second, if we see a downwards breakout. Either way, this Triangle is the key, and the targets are better seen in the daily chart: If PDD breaks this Triangle downwards, then it’ll just seek the next support level, and the most meaningful support is the red line at $ 121.28. Then we’ll see how to proceed. Maybe PDD will lose this line, or it could do a nice candlestick pattern and trigger a possible Double Bottom pattern – we can’t know for now. On the other hand, if PDD does an upward breakout from the Triangle in the 1h chart, the next resistance is the target, which is at the green line ($ 152.06). This is also a pivot point , and the trigger of an Inverted H&S chart pattern , as evidenced by the green area. If triggered, this pattern will officially reverse the trend in the mid-term , and PDD would have a first target at $ 188 , and it could go even higher, above $ 200. Since PDD is dropping with low volume , this makes me wonder if this bearish movement will have the strength to persist. Either way, we must keep watching PDD closely, and if you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep updated with my daily studies, and please, support this idea with your like! Thank you very much!
NASDAQ:PDD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
go Long on PindoodooWith Alibaba and the other Large Cap tech giants in China coming under heavy scrutiny and anti-trust regulation opens up the door for PDD to take off and assume a lot of market share. Tencent and BABA tower over PDD which is only a Mid Cap company. Taking into account the law of large numbers, a mid cap company has much more Alpha potential albeit with slightly more beta. 20 day MA just broke through the 50 day MA on the news and I expect this trend to continue as the story plays out. China wants to fight the giants to make room for the little guys; well here's a medium sized company that you don't have to worry about its business plan failing altogether. Pinduoduo, or Pindoodoo as I like to call them, are integrated in almost every facet of life in China either in the forefront or behind the scenes. Go long! #LongandStrong
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by EBITDAtiger