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SPX 500 day trading LONGAnalysis: Market Structure & Probabilities OANDA:SPX500USD PML (Previous Monthly Low) has been broken, moving higher than last month's low. PMH (Previous Monthly High) has also been broken, pushing beyond last month’s high. PWH/PWL (Previous Weekly High/Low) similarly breached, with price moving higher than the previous month's range. PDL (Previous Daily Low) and 4H Swing High/Low have also been surpassed. These indicators suggest a strong bullish bias, with an 87.5% probability of further upside movement vs. a 12.5% bearish scenario (reflected in PDH, as the price dipped below yesterday’s high). Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.14 Simple as that.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Jaytradermb
11/28/23 NAS Daily Outlook11/28/23 NAS Daily Outlook #NAS #DailyOutlook We took the PDL and traded into the 4H+FVG then bounced off of it as projected. We traded into and off of the W-FVG(L) again. I personally didn't catch this one from focusing on SPX's choppiness. We set the high PDH inside of the W-FVG and the low PDL inside of the 4H+FVG and left SSL inside of the NY open session. This will be our biggest news release, however, we do have a few #FOMC speakers but not Powell. We also have Richmond Manufacturing Index numbers #RMI and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y at 9:00am. 10:00am USD CB #ConsumerConfidence 101.0 102.6 #BullishCase: The bullish case is how we respond to this 1H+FVG we made during London session yesterday as we are simultaneously holding near the high of the 4H+FVG(H) near 15954.4. We should be looking for price to reach back into the W-FVG(L) and the for the PDH/PWHs. #BearishCase: The bearish case will be how we manage the fresh liquidity left behind within the NY open session SSL($). Below that we still have the 4H+FVG that is holding us up but we'll still be aiming for the PDL lows from Tuesday and Wednesday.1H chart 4h chart D chart:
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Cory4rex
11/28/23 US30 Daily Outlook11/28/23 US30 Daily Outlook #US30 #DailyOutlook No trade today! Too choppy for my liking and the price is just ranging to with entries that don't meet my requirements. We took out a PDL and tapped a PWH and made a PDH. We took liquidity from both the long (BSL) and the short side (SSL). Our closest HTF POI is the W-RB/D-OB and we're in the wicks but we haven't tapped into the body yet so, still think that this will be our POI to consider. The over night sessions were probably the cleanest but the entire NY session was choppy. This will be our biggest news release, however, we do have a few #FOMC speakers but not Powell. We also have Richmond Manufacturing Index numbers #RMI and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y at 9:00am. 10:00am USD CB #ConsumerConfidence 101.0 102.6 #BullishCase: The bullish case is the LTF BSL($) that is above us and a move into the following: WOP, price completely through the PWH, the PDH from 11/26, and into the W-RB/D-OB. #BearishCase: The bearish case is PDH and back into the 1H+OB from 11/22 (Do you see it?). If we trade through this swing low with impulse, then I will aim for the PDLs from Thursday and Friday and then into the D-OB(L). 1H chart 4H chart D chart
FOREXCOM:US30
by Cory4rex
11/28/23 SPX Daily Outlook11/28/23 SPX Daily Outlook #SPX #DailyOutlook: We made the low of the day during the over night sessions. There was a NWOG that was left on Sunday and this is where price has been reacting during the NY open session. The PM sessions fell down into the 4H+FVG(H), TDO and D+OB(H) then pushed into the NWOG. There was also a bounce in the London/ Pre Market Session off of the D+OB(H) again. On the open the price rejected the PG but then held the D+OB(H) again and ranging through the NY open until the close. This will be our biggest news release, however, we do have a few #FOMC speakers but not Powell. We also have Richmond Manufacturing Index numbers #RMI and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y at 9:00am. 10:00am USD CB #ConsumerConfidence 101.0 102.6 #BullishCase: The bullish case will be our response to the NWOG (New Week Open Gap) which we have reacted off of and sold off from but, at the current price we are sitting near the low again. We could use the PG to push through and buy from and the aim will be the PDH/PWHs. Look for an impulse through and a return to it. #BearishCase: The PDL from Monday is our POI for the sell setup. We need to watch the LTFs for an impulse through the low and on the LTFs once we trade through the low wait for a fresh -POI for a LTF setup. 1H chart 4H chart D Chart
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Cory4rex
11/26/23 DXY Weekly Outlook11/26/23 DXY Weekly Outlook #DXY #WeeklyOutlook Last week did as expected by continuing to take out highs. We were busy Sunday to Wednesday and stalled out on early market closure because of the holiday. Next week should be busy with a lot of news and we may also get some early reports on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. We have news to watch out for everyday up until Friday at 11am when Powell speaks. However, we don’t have #NFP until next Friday. So #powell, #UnemploymentClaims, #PCE, #gdp, #Consumerconfidence, will be the big news releases to watch out for #BullishCase: A bullish move on Dollars means that we are seeing a LTF move through the 4H-FVG. Once we move through it we see that price uses the 4H-FVG as an IFVG setup to the upside. We then target the previous -POIs, the PDH from Friday and back into the D-IFVG range. #BearishCase: A bearish scenario is a bit more probable at the moment still as we have a PDL from Friday within a few points below us and last week’s PWL as well. The initial moves of the week will need to be how we handle the 4H-FVG made on Friday near the YOP. If we get a reaction within that range we can see continuation to the down side from there. XXX/USD bullish USD/XXX bearish 1H chart 4H chart D chart W chart
TVC:DXY
by Cory4rex
11/26/23 SPX Weekly Outlook11/26/23 SPX Weekly Outlook #SPX #WeeklyOutlook: Last week did as expected by continuing to take out highs. We were busy Sunday to Wednesday and stalled out on early market closure because of the holiday. Next week should be busy with a lot of news and we may also get some early reports on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. We have news to watch out for everyday up until Friday at 11am when Powell speaks. However, we don’t have #NFP until next Friday. So #powell, #UnemploymentClaims, #PCE, #gdp, #Consumerconfidence, will be the big news releases to watch out for #BullishCase: Currently taking the PDL, however, below this low are the following +POIs, a D+B and two 4H+FVGs. On the LTFs, we need to see how price reacts below this PDL and on the LTF if we get new +POIs with these ranges. #BearishCase: The PDL from Friday is also our POI for the sell setup as well. We need to watch the LTFs for an impulse through the low and on the LTFs once we trade through the low wait for a fresh -POI for a LTF setup. 1H chart 4H chart D Chart W Chart
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Cory4rex
11/26/23 US30 Weekly Outlook11/26/23 US30 Weekly Outlook #US30 #WeeklyOutlook Last week did as expected by continuing to take out highs. We were busy Sunday to Wednesday and stalled out on early market closure because of the holiday. Next week should be busy with a lot of news and we may also get some early reports on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. We have news to watch out for everyday up until Friday at 11am when Powell speaks. However, we don’t have #NFP until next Friday. So #powell, #UnemploymentClaims, #PCE, #gdp, #Consumerconfidence, will be the big news releases to watch out for #BullishCase: The bullish case is to take the PWH on each of the time frames. There are -POIs above us that are still our HTF draw. We tapped a W-FVG around 16000 and are in the moment fading into a 4H+FVG that we have already traded up from. On the LTF, after we take the PDL we made on Friday, we will need to watch how price reacts with the FVG on the LTFs #BearishCase: The bearish case is the PDL from Friday as well. If we trade through this low with impulse, then I will aim for the PDLs from Wednesday and Thursday on the LTFs 1H chart 4h chart D chart: W chart
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Cory4rex
1
11/26/23 US30 Weekly Outlook11/26/23 US30 Weekly Outlook #US30 #WeeklyOutlook Last week did as expected by continuing to take out highs. We were busy Sunday to Wednesday and stalled out on early market closure because of the holiday. Next week should be busy with a lot of news and we may also get some early reports on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. We have news to watch out for everyday up until Friday at 11am when Powell speaks. However, we don’t have #NFP until next Friday. So #powell, #UnemploymentClaims, #PCE, #gdp, #Consumerconfidence, will be the big news releases to watch out for #BullishCase: The bullish case is to take the PWH on each of the time frames. There are -POIs above us that are still our HTF draw. In the case of US30 we also have a W-RB(rejection Block)/D-OB that is just above the last PWH. #BearishCase: The bearish case is the LTF -LP($) from the 1H TF. If we trade through this swing low with impulse, then I will aim for the PDLs from Thursday and Friday. 1H chart 4h chart D chart: W chart
FOREXCOM:US30
by Cory4rex
11/21/23 All Indices Daily Outlook#NAS #SPX #US30 #DailyReview #DailyOutlook In the over night sessions, price was the smoothest on the indices, as the price failed to take out the PDHs on SPX and US30. NAS tapped the PDH and traded above it only to move back into the previous day’s range. The #fomc meeting notes and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the afternoon seems to have held up up for now. The #homesales numbers came in off projects: 10:00am USD Existing Home Sales 3.79M 3.90M 3.95M The interest rates have dropped but this isn’t the time we’d typically see this number kicking up. Each of the indices has traded into 4H+FVG and that implies that we could still move up from where we are. The PDL from yesterday is my SSL draw if we push to the downside and the PWHs are still my targets for an upside move. #BullishCase As we have rest in this 4H+FVG on all 3 indexes, we’ll need to look for price to hold. As long as we don’t have an impulse to the downside through a PDL, we should be okay to still see a move from the FVG range. SPX and NAS, both have BSL as targets from the Closing session. But the targets, aside from this will be the the BSL, PDH and Was for all the Indices. #BearishCase If we manage to trade through the PDL on each of the indices and we do so with an impulse this will change my view of the short-term/ midterm to look for a sell. This would imply that the 4H+FVG has been mitigated and we could potentially see that IFVG or inverse FVG setup play out. For either situation patience and price action will lead the way! All Charts 1H
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Cory4rex
11/19/23 DXY Weekly Outlook#DXY #WeeklyOutlook Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On Tuesday we do have #ExistingHomeSales which will ll be something that's an economic gauge more so than something we may want to trade off of, but we can see what happens on Tuesday. After Wednesday, there's not really much going into Thursday and Friday because Thursday is a holiday, although we do close out the week with #PMI. Probability for dollar this week looks like we will definitely take out the PWL last week that I was sitting at 103.815. We are sitting inside a D+FVG but we have the yearly opening price #YOP just about 0.31% below us and that may be what we’re drawn to at least to tap it. We could see some LTF moves to the up side but the daily and weekly charts are pretty heavily favored to the downside meaning that: XXX/USD bullish USD/XXX bearish D chart
TVC:DXYShort
by Cory4rex
11/19/23 SPX Weekly Outlook#SPX #WeeklyOutlook: Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On Tuesday we do have #ExistingHomeSales which will ll be something that's an economic gauge more so than something we may want to trade off of, but we can see what happens on Tuesday. After Wednesday, there's not really much going into Thursday and Friday because Thursday is a holiday, although we do close out the week with #PMI. We set the PWL inside of a 4H+FVG and never came back near it. We expanded and created +FVGs on the Daily, 4H, and 1H that held price near the WHs once the #cpi news release on last Tuesday. If we stay in inverse correlation to the dollar I would assume the PWHs are still our targets on the HTF. Nothing is really standing in the way of of us pushing higher into them and if we see any LTF moves to the downside I’d take them with the logic that we are trading into bullish points of interest POIs . #BullishCase: We see price stalling and react to a LTF POI and bounce to take the PWHs out. I would look for any recent bullish order blocks or fair value gaps and look for price to react there. #BearishCase: We are pushing up hard over the past 3 weeks and all the down moves, even the ones that seem to be setting us up for lower price have been bought back up. LTF moves at fresh bearish POIs from the 4H or 1H are the only sell setups I’ll probably look for and doing so with the #BullishCase in mind. We closed out Friday to the downside and we have two PDLs and into the FVGs, and these would be my short terms downside targets. 1H chart 4H chart D Chart
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by Cory4rex
11/19/23 NAS Weekly Outlook#NAS #WeeklyOutlook Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On Tuesday we do have #ExistingHomeSales which will ll be something that's an economic gauge more so than something we may want to trade off of, but we can see what happens on Tuesday. After Wednesday, there's not really much going into Thursday and Friday because Thursday is a holiday, although we do close out the week with #PMI. We set the PWL inside of a 4H+FVG and never came back near it. We expanded and created +FVGs on the Daily, 4H, and 1H that held price near the WHs once the #cpi news release on last Tuesday. If we stay in inverse correlation to the dollar I would assume the PWHs are still our targets on the HTF. Nothing is really standing in the way of of us pushing higher into them and if we see any LTF moves to the downside I’d take them with the logic that we are trading into bullish points of interest POIs . #BullishCase: We see price stalling and react to a LTF POI and bounce to take the PWHs out. I would look for any recent bullish order blocks or fair value gaps and look for price to react there. We have a W-FVG that is my main target for us on NAS #BearishCase: We are pushing up hard over the past 3 weeks and all the down moves, even the ones that seem to be setting us up for lower price have been bought back up. LTF moves at fresh bearish POIs from the 4H or 1H are the only sell setups I’ll probably look for and doing so with the #BullishCase in mind. We closed out Friday to the downside and we have two PDLs and into the FVGs, and these would be my short terms downside targets. 1H chart 4h chart D chart:
FOREXCOM:NAS100Long
by Cory4rex
11/12/23 SPX Weekly Outlook#SPX #DailyReview #WeeklyOutlook: Last week was a weird week with the drop on Thursday and then price on Friday setting the Weekly Low and high. Dollar moved up the entire week pretty slowly but the Bonds pulled back and that caused the buy on Friday. Tuesday we'll have CPI and Wednesday we'll have PPI and Retail sales. Then Thursday we will have Unemployment Claims so that will definitely move the markets on those days for sure. #1 Taking the PWH should be the first move and we might see price move into this 4H+FVG to move higher from there. #2 Selling for now isn't an option at the moment but taking the sell into the +FVG on the lower time frame may be a move on the 15m chart and below. 4H chart
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Cory4rex
11/12/23 US30 Weekly Outlook#US30 #DailyReview #WeeklyOutlook Took out the PWH and traded into a W-FVG up to the mid point at 34300.6. The 1H/4H+FVG is sitting right at the W-FVG(L) at 34098.9 and if we move up this is likely where I may look for a move up. Tuesday we'll have CPI and Wednesday we'll have PPI and Retail sales. Then Thursday we will have Unemployment Claims so that will definitely move the markets on those days for sure. #1 main goal is the PWH for an initial upside move #2 Pushing down into the +FVG that is the downside move on the LTF but, I want to see if the move is pushing down to move up from there. 4H chart
FOREXCOM:US30
by Cory4rex
Weekly Outlook - SPX 10-22-23 Weekly Chart: We gapped up last week only to trade near last week's high and into the W-FVG(MT). Price failed to continue the move up. We are down for the month and this week's candle has opened inside of last week's candle. Staying bearish for now with last week's low at risk PWL and 10/2-10/6 PWL as well. Getting a bullish short term move into the last up close candle would be where I'm looking for setup unless we go after the PWL first. Weekly Chart: Daily Chart: Opened to the upside is likely my short term bias and I'm okay with seeing prince move into the D-FVG above Friday's PDH. However, just given the proximity oof Friday/PWL (previous week low) this is the first place at risk to be taken out. 10/4 is holding the next PWL target if Friday's PWL is taken out. Daily Chart: 4H Chart: As we push up short term, I'll be looking to see how price pushing and if we reach into this 4H-OB during the over night sessions. That will be my first POI to determine how we setup Monday morning. We don't have a swing low from the weekly to the 4H so far so this still plays into this pushing to the downside a bit more. 4H Chart: 1H Chart: Short term focus will be how we move, if we move into this 1H-FVG, take out the +LP above Friday's closing session high, or if we move immediately after the PWL. Overall I'll be paying attention to the short term move but looking to see if I can get into a HTF setup. 1H Chart:
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Cory4rex
Weekly Bias for SPX - 10/1/2023Weekly Chart: Traded into last week's bearish engulfing candle and then took out its low. Traded into a +POI (W+FVG), wicked near MT at 4236.6 Weekly Idea: Because we are bearish but entered into this +POI, with may get a bounce but would look to see if the PWL is taken out for a continuation lower. For now, I'm 505/50 on this mainly because of the W+FVG. A bullish scenario would need to be revisited Daily Chart: Price took out the PWL and set a low on the Daily in the W+FVG, however, price bounced from the area without making a new high. This is logic to stay on the downside for now. Another thing to note, Friday's close is at the mid point of the weekly range, Weekly high 4347.4, Weekly Low 4243.2, and Weekly mid point 4295.3, finally Weekly close/ Friday closing price 4295.3. Daily idea: Because of the close and the price failing to make a new high this give reasoning to at least look for the price to take out the PDL and -LP ( $ trend line liquidity) with best case scenario, price taking out the PWL. A bullish scenario would need to be revisited 4H Chart/Idea: We have a 4H-OB and 4H-FVG, one the LTF, do we have price return to mitigate this area? The +breaker is hold price up for now and this will be the first thing that I look at for a response of what price decides to do. The low was made in a +POI, a +OB but will it hold?
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Cory4rex
Weekly Bias for DXY/GU - 10/1/23Weekly Chart: DXY and GU both have reach POI, on DXY a W-OB and on GU a W+FVG. In this scenario, I'd be looking for DXY to see how we respond to the PWH if we fail to take it out and trade back into last week's range, I'll look to the downside potentially. If we trade through it, the +LP at 107.993 will be the next draw. GU will have to deal with the W+FVG and the YOP which may be a tough task. Weekly Idea: DXY's strength be the thing I'm watching. This is a good area to fall from and that will spring GU to the up side. A fall lines up with the YOP holding price up on GU. However, if we take out the high on DXY, GU reaches into the YOP Daily Chart: The first draw is the PDH on DXY and the PDL on GU. We will need to pay attention to how the engulfing candles made on Thursday on DXY/GU are handled and this will be a range that the LTF will need to deal with. 4H Chart: DXY has a small 4H-FVG but the one above it is the one I'm interested in. The PDH has already been taken out and the response to the highs are what I'm looking for. On GU, the PDL hasn't been taken yet but its at risk so, I'll be looking at how price reacts to all of the +POIs (D+FVG,4H+Breaker, and the 4H+FVG, 4H+OB). If DXY fails to push through PDH, well look for price to trade into the 4H+FVG and and the same time I'll be looking at price inside of the 4H-FVG on GU.
by Cory4rex
Weekly Bias for Nas100 - 10/1/2023Weekly Chart: Price took out the PWL and the August low into a W+OB and we did close positively for the week. We did create the low of a W-FVG (not drawn but, it's there) and price closed near the middle of the weekly range, Weekly High 14906.5, Weekly Low 14429.3, Weekly Mid point 14667.9, Weekly close 14741.8. Weekly idea: Price took out lows into the W+OB but for now there is a W+FVG below that may be the target. If we take out the PDL, this will be my target into the the W+FVG(H) near 14232.7. In order to turn bullish I will need to see a high taken out and I'll want to see what price does inside the W-FVG. Daily Chart: Price traded into a D-FVG and set the high near the D-FVG (MT) and left a huge wick with a Friday close near the Mid point of the Weekly range. We took out the bearish engulfing made on Tuesday but by Friday we traded back into it. Daily Idea: Price leaving that large wick will cause for me to look at how price response to the close, middle and high of the candle. Do we fail inside this wick or take out the high? This is the question I'll be looking to answer. If we fail, I'll be looking to take out the PDL and THURS PDL. If we take out the high, price should close the D-FVG and trade into another D-FVG just above (not drawn) with the low near 14974.1. 4H Chart: Price left a 4H-OB inside the daily wick and the low was made inside a 4H+FVG(H) 14661.5. There is a +CHOCH above THURS PDH and the this is my hesitation to go full on bearish on the short term. There is also a 4H+Breaker that Friday could not take out as well. 4H Idea: I want to see if price will take out the 4H-OB or the PDL
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Cory4rex
EURGBP SELL SETUPI am interested in this 15 minute Order Block tucked away in the middle of a 1 hour Order Block. I would wait for confirmation if price reaches the level. Price might rally to clear the PDH and liquidity resting through it in a slanted angle. I don't believe price will drop much further below the Previous Day Low (PDL). If it does, it will be retracing a daily range, which will be a much more significant drop. Too bad I'll be asleep when this happens. I'd be watching it.
Short
by QSInvestments
ORB Nr4 CANDLESTICK PRICE ACTION STRATEGYORB - Opening Range Breakout This strategy works on all markets - time frame is Day & 1H Step #1: Wait until you can spot a bar that has its daily range smaller than the previous three days The first rule requires you to have the patience until the Nr4 pattern develops on the YOUR chart. When we have a daily trading range that is narrowed than the previous trading ranges it means that the price is contracting. Based on our backtesting results we have found out that there is a high probability of a trend move after you spot this type of contraction. This is kind of a general rule because the markets do move from periods of contractions to periods of expansion. This is the reason why this short-term price pattern is so powerful. Step #2: Mark the High and the Low of the 4th day and switch to the 1 hour time frame Our trade is taken the next day after the Nr4 pattern showed up. In order to have a clear view of the short-term price action we need to switch our focus to the 1 hour time frame. Before you switch the time frames make sure you mark on your chart the high and the low of the 4th day. The short-term pattern Nr4 satisfies all the requirements for a valid setup, which mean that we can move forward and describe how to buy or sell. Step #3: How to buy or sell: Buy/sell only if the breakout of the Nr4 high/low happens during the first 5 trading hours. We use the Opening Range Breakout technique to time the market and have an effective trade entry. The ORB is even more profitable if it occurs after inside days that have a smaller trading range than the previous 3 days. Here is another strategy called simple yet profitable strategy. Our trade may not have an inside day, but nevertheless we want to buy/sell only after we break above/below the Nr4 day high/low. Also, we want to make sure the breakout happens during the first five trading hours of the next day. Trades based on the ORB – Nr4 pattern will show you a profit instantly. Now, if the trade is not showing you a profit right away then your trade becomes more vulnerable. As a general rule, if after the first trading hour your trade is not in the green, you can safely close the trade at the market. Of course, you can only do that if your stop loss hasn’t been triggered in the meantime. Now, let’s outline where to place our protective stop loss. Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss above/below the Nr4 day high/low You can hide your protective stop loss above/below the Nr4 day high/low. Alternatively, you can also place your stop loss below the current day high/low as this will give you a better risk to reward ratio. The ORB - Nr4 pattern tends to precede strong trend day activity, so your stop loss should be rarely hit. Both of these patterns can be traded individually, but when combined they tend to produce even more powerful trades. Step #5: Take profit at the close of the first 1-hour bearish candle Our take profit strategy is fairly easy and it’s slightly modified from the original strategy highlighted in the “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout” book written by Toby Crabel. Even though the ORB pattern tends to lead to trend trading days we’re more conservative and want to quickly take profits. So as soon as the first bullish/bearish candle shows up we close the trade and enjoy our daytrade profits. Alternatively, you can keep the trade open until the end of the day if you want to extrapolate more profits from the market.
by Tradingstrategyguides