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GBP/CHF - Do you see a reversal pattern ?!According to our pair, there are a lot of publications and articles claiming that we are seeing a downtrend and the price is in correction. If we consider our technical indicators, then on the MACD histogram we will really see that we have come out of the histogram and at the moment we have a signal to sell the pair. When we look at Stochastic on a 4-hour chart, we see a rise on the contrary. Because of that these indicators do not give any clear signal at the moment. However, if we go down and look at the 1-hour chart, then we can see the formation of the figure "Double Inverted Peak", which looks like an inverted "Head and shoulders" 4-hour chart. These figures are reversal, so it would probably be best to wait for the price to move upwards and expect the price to advance to the level of 1.31. Then we can consider the further behavior of our quote.
by SuperForex
BTCUSD: Minor Retrace? Or Retrun To 9600 Support?BTCUSD update: Price is retracing off of the 11700 high, but what is more important to notice is the bearish pin bar that formed and it's low compromised. This bearish signal was one of the scenarios I was anticipating at or near the bearish trend line. What does this mean? I published a quick update that said I sold 15% of my position. I did NOT exit my entire position, all I did was lock in some profit which was part of my plan if you read the details of my previous reports. I am still bullish, but I am simply following best practices: sell into strength. Locking in some profit is never a bad idea, and it reduces risk. If you don't understand this, then greed drives your perspective. It also means you have not learned anything from the 20K sell off. Do I think this market is going higher? Yes. I locked in some profit just in case the retrace becomes more pronounced which is still possible. In fact, the bullish trend line was tested at the 10680 low and held which is a sign of strength. The problem is this market needs to establish a bullish reversal pattern in the current price location, otherwise it may break the trend line. If the trend line breaks, is that the start of a new bearish move? Not necessarily. It just means momentum is becoming less bullish. If there is a break and decisive close below the trend line, I will be watching for the 9604 level (.382 of current bullish swing) as the next support for a bullish reversal and place to add to my position trade. In summary, my choice to sell 15% of my position was not a reaction. It was a predetermined adjustment that I described ahead of time, which required the market to show a certain condition, and it appeared. Emotion does not drive my decisions, my well defined plan does instead. I was interested in selling around 11400 but instead of placing a limit order earlier, I chose to give the market a chance to go further. This is the trade off that we must always face when in these situations. I can place a limit order and sell too early if the market goes straight to 12K, or I can give the market a chance in which case I may get less than 11400 if I use a candle low as my trigger to take profit. There is no perfect way to do this. Your choice here is a function of your risk tolerance. I still have 85% of my position, so what if I make a little less as the market goes higher, and I will add back to it IF the market gives me that opportunity. Managing a position trade is like managing inventory, and I just locked in some "retail" prices at a potential peak. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
BTCUSD: Bulls In Control Unless Trend Line Breaks?BTCUSD update: Retrace off of bearish trend line in progress as price action establishes an engulfing candle. Is this the turning point that will lead to a retest of the lows? Or just a small bump in a broader bullish move? The answers come from your outlook and your risk appetite, while the chart offers a structured way to plan your decisions which is more effective than reacting. Having your OWN perspective and outlook frees you from the confusion of the hype. From irrelevant news that aims to drive traffic, to over exaggerated analysis written to attract attention, it is very easy to become indecisive when the market gets a little shaky. Bullish momentum is easy (if you are long), but when a retrace comes along, that's when fear begins to distract you from your original plan, especially if you are a regular consumer of low grade information. The solution? Learn how to weight and categorize information based on your OWN perspective and outlook. My perspective and outlook has been bullish and still is. I am managing a position trade which means I am looking to capitalize on a broader move higher. The price action that is occurring now was a scenario that I was anticipating. It is not that surprising that selling shows up at the 9887 to 10836 resistance zone (.618 area of recent bearish swing), and simultaneously off of the broader bearish trend line. In my previous report I wrote that I was going to sell 15% of my position around the 11,400 level depending on the price formations. The market never went to that price, and the bearish engulfing candle came sooner. Can you see why I have not been encouraging people to buy at these higher levels? What to do now? Lock in some profit earlier because of a selling pattern? My answer is in my outlook for my trade. I am playing the bigger picture and expect much higher prices based on the magnitude of the level that this market is coming from. On top of that, the bullish trend line that is still intact carries more weight than the engulfing candle and tells me that buyers are still present (especially if an inside bar forms). Since momentum and structure is still generally in my favor, I am willing to risk the profit that I am managing at the moment in order to let my plan play out. My outlook and perspective along with the supportive structure on the chart all tell me the 11,400 trend line break is still reasonable to expect. I suspect that price will push when the bearish trend line is compromised, and any failure in that area is when I will sell 15% of my position (especially since it would be considered a double top formation at that point). IF price never shows any subsequent failure, I simply let my winner run. The scenario that would cause some concern for me would be a decisive break and close below the bullish trend line which means price would be push below the high 9Ks. In that scenario, I still would not sell, I would wait for the next bullish retrace attempt and then unload some there. By operating this way, I give the market a chance to go back in my favor, or at least offer a better price to lock in some profit and reduce risk AFTER it has proven weaker than anticipated. In summary, having a perspective, knowing how to weight information and accepting the relative risks are paramount to sticking with a bigger picture plan. Can some news come out of nowhere and hammer this market? Sure, but I am willing to take that risk. Managing a position trade is more like managing inventory. When the cost of inventory gets cheap (market is selling off) you buy at wholesale prices. When peak season comes around (new highs) you unload it at retail prices and then wait for wholesale prices to come around again. As long as prices are not going to zero, this is a good analogy to consider. Charts help us measure, evaluate and anticipate, they can't decide our risk appetite, only you can. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
What happened on Kraken on January 13th?As a complete beginner, am starting to try to find my way among exchanges, charts, TA, and other stuffs. I would like to understand what happened on Kraken the 13th of January, 2018, with XBT (BTC). On the daily XBTEUR chart, we can notice an insane candle jumping up to 20k EUR. Seems there is a high high shadow on the XBTUSD that day too. Volume doesn't look crazy that day. Would some be able to explain me what would that mean? Any mistake from a retail trader, like mistyping, or something like that?
by cblab
8
BAT BEAR & CYPHER BEAR |H1| SHORTCOINBASE:ETHUSD presents two bearish harmonic patterns in this generally bearish crypto saga :) Fundamentals and Technicals appear to be in conflict in the crypto world hence making it hard for anyone to accurately predict the direction of any crypto market. These are certainly very risky markets and of course just like any other market, there are no absolute entry and exit points, so I will simply follow my harmonic patterns with calculated risk and instincts :) If you choose to indulge, good luck
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn1118164
2
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Looks Like 8Ks before 12Ks?BTCUSD update: After making the all time high of 11441, the rug gets pulled and now that this market has attempted to reestablish some stability, it is possible to get a better idea of where price is likely to go next. The outside bar that was painted 3 candles ago (11441 to 9000) is a sign of a top, at least a temporary one. For those who were shorting too early, THIS is an example of what should be in place BEFORE you even think about shorting this market. I also wrote about the symmetrical nature of the zig zag that produced an extension at the 10650 area which was not exact, but as you can see, was within the ball park of the peak. This why I kept repeating, lock in profit while you CAN, not when you have to. This dramatic price action has generated new levels to be aware of and has signaled a change in momentum to bearish. Measuring from the 5400 low, the nearest relevant support is the 9120 area which is now showing signs of a double bottom. Below that, there is the 7650 to 6690 area which is relative to the .618 area. The new resistance zone to watch for a retest is now the 10450 to 10870 area which is relevant to the .618 of the new bearish swing. This kind of price action is where people buy too early and think they just got a good price before the next run to 12k. Based on the current structure, this market is more likely to test the low 8ks or high 7900s before finding any significant stability. Even though there is a double bottom in the low 9ks to 8800 area, it carries much less weight in this bearish context. And relative to the big picture, the low 9ks is an extremely shallow support. The level to now watch for is a failed high within the 10450 to 10870 area. That is the place to experiment with shorts, NOT when this market is making new highs. Price actually tested this area very briefly and rejected it which also adds weight. Typically corrective moves unfold in 3 waves, (a zig zag formation) and at the moment, is possibly setting up for the next leg lower. I cannot short these markets even if I wanted to because I am not treading on margin. I have no problem waiting for a much lower price to buy into after stability reappears. I am writing about this bearish scenario because these are the signs that the market is showing based on structure and price action, and is NOT based on my feelings, opinion or anything else. I am flexible and have the ability to adjust to new information. Which means IF the market happens to break above the 10870 area with conviction, then that will negate this bearish scenario that I am writing about now. As long as it stays below 10450, the bearish scenario is likely to persist. That is what markets do, and it is our job as short term traders to go with the flow, not assert our meaningless opinions to validate our egos. In summary, I have NO intention of getting involved in this market until I see levels and price structure that are in line with my swing trade plan. Since I can't and do not short these markets, I have no choice but to stay out and observe. A break below the 8800 area will signal the next bearish leg is in play and can take this market back to the low 8ks. Do not get fooled by the initial leg of a likely broader sell off. Pay attention to the technical signals, not the news which can easily mislead the less experienced into thinking this is a buying opportunity. This market has gone too far too fast which is extremely abnormal (look at a weekly chart), and the corrective move that is attempting to unfold is actually very healthy and required before this market can continue higher. I do not know how low this market will go, but I do know that it is too early to view the current retrace as a buying opportunity. Be patient, make your plan and let the market come to you. Comments and questions welcome. (I appreciate the community members helping to answer questions here, again if it is a pressing question, PM will get you a faster response).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
56
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Initial Selling And 345?ETHUSD update: My 516 target was touched before the rug got pulled and is now showing signs of a top. My swing trade was exited at 499 on the way to 500 according to PLAN for a 30+ point profit (in a matter of hours). I have NO intention of getting back in until signs of stability return. The fact that this market went from 516 back to 400 within hours is definitely a reminder of how risky these markets are. This is why it is always MORE important to calculate risk, than it is to anticipate profit. I did not expect my trade to hit it's target in a matter of hours, I figured a day or so, but I knew my risk going into it, and based on the structure and the signs at that moment, the RISK relative to the potential that I evaluated made sense for MY swing trade plan. It was not an emotional play, and I have no fear of missing out as some less experienced trader suggested. I placed my target at the time I entered the trade at 499 simply because I figured 500 will pose some psychological resistance even though I had an extension at 516. I know the limitations of TA and I understand that I am not dealing with absolutes, but instead estimates. At this point, all the markets have developed a similar structure and this can be the initial leg of a more bearish structure. I have NO intention of buying any near by supports until I see clear signs of stability. The signs that imply further weakness include the long wick off of the 516 extension, the decisive break of the consolidation support, and two minor support levels just below it. There are now two resistance levels to watch for and they are the 450 area (previous support) which is now the .382 resistance of the new bearish swing. And the 476 to 492 area which is the .618 resistance relative to the new bear momentum as well. Based on the concept of market symmetry, if this corrective move is going to unfold in a zig zag where the first and third leg are of equal length, then that puts the potential completion of this selling effort at 345. This is not an absolute prediction, but offers some estimate of how far this market can retrace before the selling is more likely to exhaust itself. This is the same type of measurement that I use to generate the extension targets when the market is pushing highs. Since there is a very bullish bias in these markets generally, price may find stability sooner, but I will let the structure appear before I look to evaluate any new longs. One scenario would be a larger time frame double bottom in the 400 area which can take at least a day or two to unfold. In summary, when everyone is celebrating new highs and eating up all the hype, it is easy to forget the risk. These markets are extremely risky and can get the rug pulled from under them at a moments notice. I keep getting messages from traders who seem to have this built in assumption that these markets are normal and that they are stable investments for the future. Stable investments do not move at the rate of 5 to 10% in a day higher or lower. These are extremely speculative markets which are ideal for short term trading strategies because they change so fast. I kept urging people to lock in some profits WHILE YOU CAN, and instead I get, "So how much higher is this going to go?". Selling the top is a lottery ticket, a long shot, low probability. Focus on mitigating risk, and high probability strategies like defining levels and waiting for structure to better confirm trades. If you're only plan is to "just make money" then you should not be in these markets. As far as the current structure, there is likely at least one more selling leg and I have no interest in buying at the moment until stability is clear as defined by MY plan. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
MICROSOFT STOCK PREDICTIONS FOR 2016 AND 20172016/11/18. Microsoft stock forecast for next months and years. Microsoft stock price predictions for November 2016. The forecast for beginning of November 58. Maximum value 61, while minimum 54. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 58. Price at the end 57, change for November -1.72%. Microsoft stock predictions for December 2016. The forecast for beginning of December 57. Maximum value 59, while minimum 53. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 56. Price at the end 56, change for December -1.75%. Microsoft stock price predictions for January 2017. The forecast for beginning of January 56. Maximum value 59, while minimum 53. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 56. Price at the end 56, change for January 0.00%. Microsoft stock predictions for February 2017. The forecast for beginning of February 56. Maximum value 60, while minimum 54. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 57. Price at the end 57, change for February 1.79%. Microsoft stock price predictions for March 2017. The forecast for beginning of March 57. Maximum value 64, while minimum 56. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 59. Price at the end 60, change for March 5.26%. Microsoft stock predictions for April 2017. The forecast for beginning of April 60. Maximum value 61, while minimum 55. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 59. Price at the end 58, change for April -3.33%. Microsoft stock price predictions for May 2017. The forecast for beginning of May 58. Maximum value 65, while minimum 57. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 60. Price at the end 61, change for May 5.17%. Microsoft stock predictions for June 2017. The forecast for beginning of June 61. Maximum value 61, while minimum 55. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 59. Price at the end 58, change for June -4.92%. Microsoft stock price predictions for July 2017. The forecast for beginning of July 58. Maximum value 65, while minimum 57. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 60. Price at the end 61, change for July 5.17%. Microsoft stock predictions for August 2017. The forecast for beginning of August 61. Maximum value 61, while minimum 55. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 59. Price at the end 58, change for August -4.92%. Microsoft stock price predictions for September 2017. The forecast for beginning of September 58. Maximum value 61, while minimum 55. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 58. Price at the end 58, change for September 0.00%. Microsoft stock predictions for October 2017. The forecast for beginning of October 58. Maximum value 63, while minimum 55. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 59. Price at the end 59, change for October 1.72%. Microsoft stock price predictions for November 2017. The forecast for beginning of November 59. Maximum value 65, while minimum 57. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 61. Price at the end 61, change for November 3.39%. Microsoft stock predictions for December 2017. The forecast for beginning of December 61. Maximum value 68, while minimum 60. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 63. Price at the end 64, change for December 4.92%. Microsoft stock price predictions for January 2018. The forecast for beginning of January 64. Maximum value 69, while minimum 61. Averaged Microsoft stock price for month 65. Price at the end 65, change for January 1.56%. BLUE CHANNEL- Monthly and Weekly UP Double Lines- Peak of .com bubble and All-Time High from 1999/2000 *Broken
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by iBrokers
MSFT Shares Near Dot-Com Peak Shares of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) declined last week, but remained within range of their 1999 peak as investors continued to rally behind the company’s second quarter earnings beat. The Redmond, Washington-based technology giant closed at $57.62 Friday, having declined 0.6% for the week. For the month of August, the company’s value has increased 1.8%. @iBrokers we are short on MSFT but careful with risk of breaking to the upper side of recent highs. See chart for Resistance www.ibrokers.ee
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by iBrokers