Peloton
PTON on the way to $200Great chat to take a look at today "PTON"
-We can see the ascending trendline and the Support resistance zone as the two key elements to understand this chart
The Ascending trendline represents the asset's long-term bullish trend, and we can see how the price is accelerating and taking distance from it.
-The Support Resistance zone was the previous level in which a huge corrective structure was formed (ABC pattern)
-After the breakout of it and a bullish impulse, we saw a corrective structure (smaller ABC pattern) finding support on the previous zone
-Now we had a breakout of the small structure, and we expect a continuation of the bullish movement towards 184.86 (First target in which we will move our stop loss to break-even) and then to the final target 205.5, where we will close our long setup
-The setup we developed was Entry above "B" and Stop below "C" (of the small corrective structure) / Break-Even and Take profit were explained on the previous items
PTON is a buy @ the $92-$94 rangeUncertainties regarding the future impact of COVID have not faded despite positive vaccine news. More Americans are exercising from home and buying Peloton products. Peloton is still a solid buy, especially as we head towards the holiday season. It's a buy but with consideration of technical factors. There's strong support around the $92-$94 area. This area gives bullish traders value.
Peloton officially VOIDED its bullish pattern.Update from yesterday's PTON chart analysis:
Peloton has officially broken its upward climb with a fall under the 125-126 support level.
Although I like this as a long term investment, the short term is looking like a sideways/downward trend.
If you plan to play calls, I would look for end of year expirations.
Peloton can benefit from the winter months if COVID cases surge, gyms close but for now I think the ceiling is 136-137.
Peloton Now Worth $38 Billion - Weekly ChartI think Peloton has created a great exercise bike. And some novel new ways to watch workout videos on your phone. It recently hit all-time highs and has been spiking higher. Its market cap is now $38 billion.
I am a fan of technology, growth, and change. But I also know that as a society we have been making exercise bikes for 30+ years. This is not the first exercise bike to hit markets and it won't be the last. Sure they built some subscription models on top of it, but quite frankly, every other bike can do that as well. So can the gyms. So can the apps that track runners.
It will be interesting to watch going forward and the brand is quite strong. Could it go to $60 billion? $100 billion? What's next? I'm not sure, but I would wager that the stock needs to calm down before it rides higher again. I don't have a trade on it yet, but am watching closely. I marked some levels on the chart.
Adding to #PTON call options 7/17 hereAdded to my OTM PTON $60 7/17 here, based on strong support in this area... can see that with the visible range indicator. Seeing a falling wedge on RSI hourly, those are reversal patterns... again with OTM plays, not betting that PTON gets to $60, but that general movement will be upwards.
Peloton (PTON): The Apple and Netflix of the Fitness IndustryIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content!
I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
What is Peloton Interactive (PTON)?
- Peloton is a home fitness company that offers fitness products such as an indoor cycle, and a treadmill, as well as live workout content
- Peloton is similar to Apple (AAPL) in that it promotes the establishment of a hardware-based ecosystem
- It’s also similar to Netflix (NFLX) in that it offers various fitness content in subscription form
Financials
- They initially anticipated $1.72 billion in revenue for 2020, which has been modified to $1.74 billion due to their explosive growth
- This means that PTON demonstrates a 89% year-over-year growth in revenue
- Out of their total revenue, 79% consists of sales of connected fitness products, and 20% from their subscription service
- PTON is one of the few stocks that has benefited from the pandemic.
- With an increasing number of people staying indoors, wanting to exercise, demand for Peloton’s products and services skyrocketed.
- Due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19), they have managed to be profitable for the fourth quarter with an Earnings per Share (EPS) at 27 cents.
- While they are not extremely profitable yet, as PTON is a growth stock, the fact that they have $500 million in cash proves that they will be financially stable for the short term.
Business Analysis
- The fitness machines sold by Peloton are not normal indoor cycles and treadmills with screens attached
- These fitness machines, which cost $2,245 and $4,295, apply cutting-edge technology that allow users to meticulously control the angle and resistance.
- Moreover, these products provide accurate data on the user’s athletic performance.
- The hardware provided by Peloton Interactive are optimized for the contents they provide.
- PTON’s instructors are 30 of the most famous fitness influencers on social media.
- As such, they could expand their streams of revenue to paid advertisements, and ecommerce opportunities, diversifying the business.
- They offer two subscription plans:
- A ‘Connected Fitness’ plan based on the hardware they offer
- And a digital membership that is offered separately
- Connected Fitness allows users to participate in live cycling sessions, and receive immediate feedback from the instructor
- The number of users subscribing to Connected Fitness is skyrocketing, with a 94% increase in users compared to that of the last quarter
- The number of subscribers for Connected Fitness surpassed 1 million in 2020 May
- The digital membership subscription does not require a Peloton hardware, and offers various types of content besides running and cycling, such as yoga, meditation, and boot camps.
- Their customer churn rate remains extremely low at 0.65% every quarter, while the number of users continue to grow every quarter
Technical Analysis
- We can see that prices have been in a phase of accumulation for a long time since later 2019
- As prices traded within a descending parallel channel, we saw a sharp breakdown caused by the market drop, which was triggered by the Corona Virus (COVID-19)
- Unlike other companies that were severely affected by the virus, the pandemic was an opportunity for Peloton to grow.
- As a result, we saw prices break through the $40 resistance zone, and rally in a parabolic trend
- Along the way, it has undergone a phase of re-accumulation, before reaching its all-time high at $91.17
- Currently, we have seen prices cool off, bouncing at $79.34 where the 0.236 Fibonacci support and parallel channel trend line support converge
- The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is also a good indicator of PTON's bullish trend, as well as strong support.
- Based on fundamentals, unless we see a corrective confirmation below $80, we could anticipate new all-time highs for PTON.
Conclusion
Peloton is on its way to completing a hierarchical process of 'hardware-software-content-community' funneling users into their ecosystem. This ecosystem that Peloton is designing has been attempted by many, but successfully done by only a few. With the development of each elements and growth as a whole, we could expect a huge augmentation in the barrier to entry.
One thing to note about growth stocks such as PTON is that the essence of the business is rooted on tech. To say Peloton Interactive (PTON) is another fitness-related company like Fitbit (FIT) is to compare Amazon (AMZN) to bookstores and Tesla Motors (TSLA) to automotive companies.
The Distribution has started for Peloton stocks“Good performance ... Earnings are higher than expected .... the number of subscribers has doubled…. the company has benefited from the coronavirus ... it will hit 100 soon ... blah blah blah blah blah blah “
In recent days, we have seen an increase in activity on the Peloton Interactive PTON stock market. This activity is primarily due to the profits, which the company read about on September 10th. There is a growing uptrend in the background, and emotionally, ordinary investors from the public are looking to enter into longs.
But from my point of view, it would be a rash decision, because we see signals of weakness on the chart. Black arrows point to supply bars (price accelerated from top to bottom on rising volumes). Professional traders use market buzz to distribute the maximum number of shares they buy far below $ 40 per share. And now they are recording a doubling of profits. And they closing longs around a top that is just beginning to form.
What's next? I do not share the general optimism. While I support fitness and a healthy lifestyle, I also support informed decisions when buying stocks, so I highly expect a slowdown in growth. And the share price may decline until the end of 2020.
PTON target: ~~75 next week or two.After blowout earnings pushed a new high, we had a massive bearish engulfing. Looks to be way ahead of itself; would like to see it retreat back towards its 50day which nicely coincides with the previous uptrend line. MACD rolling over and about to cross. Upper bollinger band crossover sell. Does not look as healthy as their customers!
PTON retracement this is pretty dumb.
last times RSI was this high the stock made a 20% correction back to the mean ~$30.
Also made tops in RSI in the daily time frame as well.
Long time support in green, weak supports dashed green lines.
Fundamentals:
PTON sells overpriced electric cycling bikes during a recession.
The market is as rational as a chicken without a head.
PTON recently rallied after breaking the descending triangle marked in purple due to their increased sales of bikes due to the lockdowns.
now that lock downs are being removed, its very likely people will stop ordering them and the hype dies.
I think its very possible that this stock gets carried back to its ATH on a positive market and even higher.
this is an isolated test of the RSI indicator.
PTON 28p 6/19
dyor.
Looking Exhausted, Step off the Bike and Cool DownPeloton has miraculously revitalized the Trend of In-Home Aerobics crap
You all remember the 80s-90s when Mom and Dad spent a fortune on crap they only used for a year or less?
Yep we are seeing it again, This time its with the Credit Card everything generations.
Very big bubble, could inflate much higher - like Pot Stocks or Impossible Meat