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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 04.30.15Today there has been considerable increases, which were supported by a very weak US GDP reading (0.2% vs. 1%). Part of the market has come to the conclusion that a rate hike will be reached in time. Therefore, we saw the EUR / USD at 1.1189, after having pierced the important resistance at 1.1034 and 1.1090. However, the situation turned around when we met notes from the FOMC meeting. Here it should be noted that the Fed does not fear a slowdown in the economy and recent weak data are transient. September seems possible date to raise interest rates, which automatically strengthened the dollar. Forecast for Thursday: Today, the currency pair has been strongly bought, and therefore we should see a correction but .... tomorrow, we have a whole packet of data from Europe and the USA. Therefore it may be quite high volatility. Of course, every good data from the EU and the worse the US will support the euro and vice versa. From a technical point of view, the currency pair reached the resistance 1,1170-1,1220 mentioned yesterday, should turn south in the vicinity of 1,1034-1,1045. It is difficult to unequivocally determine how the currency pair will behave tomorrow because we can expect mood swings. A more likely scenario is a correction after the recent rally and then a retest recent highs. Today's announcement the Fed is not conducive to the euro, and only new data from the US will help assess the real chances of interest rate hikes in September. Tomorrow should especially pay attention to the CPI and the unemployment rate in the European Union and on the number of initial jobless in the US. Today, we have not received a clear answer as to the future direction in the medium term for the EUR / USD pair.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for the EUR / USD pair on 04/29/15Once again, according to yesterday's forecast currency pair recorded a new high of 1.0991. Demand side was further supported by data from the US worse (Conference Board index fell to 95.2. This is another worse US data, which show that tomorrow's meeting notes from the Fed may be dismissed in the time of a possible rate hike. Let me remind you only that the first possible date for which has some market players this June. However, at the moment a reasonable term, which we assume is September. I personally am of the opinion that there is no interest rate hikes this year. Economic Calendar: Wednesday: 14:00 EUR German CPI 14:30 USD GDP 14:30 USD GDP deflator 16:00 USD sale in progress 20:00 USD FOMC Statement 20:00 USD decision on interest rates Forecast for Wednesday: EUR / USD reached the first level of said resistance at 1.10. Most often in such moments market correction is performed with a maximum range of up to 1.0928. After the correction should be made with the aim of increasing wave 1,10-1,1034, which in late March and early April was a strong barrier inhibiting the growth. One should expect that tomorrow the market may move in consolidation between 1.0928 and 1.1034 since you will look forward to the information that will flow from the US. Tomorrow we will know the GDP, which should be worse. Later, we will provide the Fed, which certainly gave a rate hike, and will depend on further macroeconomic data and these last are not the best. This dosage information should support the euro, and we should see a break 1.1034. Such action could pave the way for a strong upward movement and lead to a strong correction on the dollar. If the current resistance will be pierced by a goal should be the level of 1,1170-1,1220. Very optimistic version 1.14 level. Note: The demand side should prevail tomorrow
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for the EUR / USD pair on 27/04/15Today there was a breakthrough summit in April, which resulted in the establishment of a high of 1.0928. If the dislocation of the wedge, which I pointed out in yesterday's analysis is not false, then we should see a withdrawal and then attack resistance zone, which is located between the 1,10-1,1034. Economic Calendar: Tuesday: 8:00 GfK Consumer Climate EUR in Germany 15:00 USD complex real estate price index S & P / CS 16:00 USD Consumer confidence Conference Board Tomorrow, we do not have too many details but will pay attention to data from the US, because on Wednesday we will keep a log of the Fed meeting. Forecast for Tuesday: The market starts to set up the information that will flow from the United States as early as next Wednesday. Please note that the latest data that we met were not optimistic and not conducive to the strengthening of the US dollar. Perhaps the answer will be announced Wednesday, in what direction will pair EUR / USD in the medium term. There is a high probability that the interest rate increases will be postponed. In this case, the dollar will remain weak. Note: all the time do not know how to finish negotiations with Greece, according to some information, the Greeks may go bankrupt in the next two weeks. It may be incurred increases on EUR / USD pair. Looking at the chart purely technically, after breaking must reckon with the correction in around 1.0865 and then aim for the demand should be the last area that is 1.1034 resistance. Even going down the course in around 1.0820 will negate further increases. Critical support is at 1.0770. Variant growth is more likely.
Long
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD for Thursday 08/04In the first part of the day we saw increases in the 1.0889 area which can be treated as an adjustment to recent declines. Around 1.09 level become active in the supply, which we defend the resistance which automatically led to declines in the vicinity of 1.08. Then the market waited for an hour 20:00 when we got to know the records of the minutes of the FOMC. Quite surprising information that we learned led to further declines in around 1.0763. (Several members of the FOMC said that the Fed would begin in mid-year increases in interest rates). Note, however, that these are the notes from the March meeting and recently met a very weak labor market data. In conclusion possible that do not reflect the actual feelings of some members of the Fed. Economic Calendar for Thursday: Germany: industrial production and trade balance US: ascendant declared to the unemployed Forecast for Thursday: Currently, the market is in the area of support levels and after a fairly strong chance of selling out draws a small rebound. Keep in mind that the first major resistance level will be 1.08 and 1.0850 level. In this area should begin playing the supply side, which will lead to a further decrease in the vicinity of 1.08 and lower. In this scenario, if the final goal should be the level of 1.07. In the chart below we can see that the course is in a downward channel and just raise up 1.0850 may lead to increases in the vicinity of 1.09.
by RobertPapon
EURUSD for ThursdayAccording to yesterday's forecast, the market has led to a small correction of recent declines. Resistance level of 1.08 was not broken at night, allowing the supply to push the exchange rate towards support at 1.0718. Unfortunately, the market could not break this level today and additionally surprisingly worse US data, allowed the demand for another attempt to attack the resistance level of 1.08. Worse data from the US move away in time, expectations about interest rates in the United States. However, keep in mind that the US economy still has a better than Europe. This should translate into a strengthening of the dollar against the euro. Economic Calendar for Thursday: Thursday: Eurozone: the minutes of the meeting of the ECB US: ascendant declared to the unemployed, the trade balance and the contract factories Forecast for Thursday: All the time the preferred option remains a strong downward trend that began after breaking the upward channel bottom (1,0456-1,1052). At the moment remains strong resistance level of 1.08, and if it is not broken should lead to further declines. For me they are the preferred option and the defense drops 1.08 by supply. Note, however, that on Friday there will be data on changes in employment in non-agricultural sector, and data on the unemployment rate in the US, the market will have tomorrow in mind. The single currency, the EU is under pressure from the poor condition of the European economy, the QE program and the expectations of the market, which implies an increase in interest rates as early as the middle of 2015. The market is currently in a consolidation, which should allow for a new test level of 1.08 and 1.07. Ultimately, however, the supply should cross the 1.07 level and the goal should be to support at 1.0620 The alternative version of the demand fail to overcome the resistance at 1.08, which hangs at the time of the next drop. But according to me it is a less likely option.
Short
by RobertPapon