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Peso

Tracking current levels like a hawk... => What is in play here? => To put it simply we are tracking two scenarios... the market is currently trading against strong resistance and we need to get above this area to avoid it becoming a very large triangle. => If we look at the recovery since August, we can see that this move has been impulsive and increases the odds for the break to the topside. => The only levels in play to track here are 20.92-21.03 which are the June highs. We see potential for this to extend as high as 21.4x and therefore any pullback towards 20.0x should be viewed as corrective. => For bears, they need to break 19.833 to question that we have already put in the highs of the year and decade. => In our books, there is opportunity in adding exposure on the upside towards 21.0x and eventually 21.4x. => Stops can be held tightly below 19.80x as a break below here will reshuffle the cards. => Best of luck to those already in live or looking to build positions here.
Long
by ridethepig
Eur/Mex Ending DiagonalThis is the daily. Diagonal seems to be in a wave 5 position of a "C" wave. Emex seems to be holding at the 27% extension of first wave (high came off the 1.382 trend fib extension). Both Umex and Emex are showing "B" wave corrective structure. And I would not be surprised to this diagonal double top (See USOIL). It broke bottom trend line and pulled slightly back up. I would wait for (hope for) it to correct up and trade it by sell stop order to catch it on the way down, but that's just me personally. It seems like a "W" count to me. That would mean an "X" wave next (3 wave correction, usually somewhat flat like in this scenario) which can be 50-75% (usually about 62%) retracement of the 3 wave move by the time completed.
by thillygoosth
COP risk premium low in EM space=> Here we are tracking a break to the upside in USDCOP with a target of 3223 => This flow is trading the recent underperformance in Columbia and playing it against USD strength via inflation and bond to equity flows. => This should be a quick and sharp move with low political risk in Columbia and upside in Oil prices being capped for now.(edited) => If risk rises globally we see COP getting hammered and experiencing real pain with the knife being stuck in because of the low carry and less hawkish BanRep(edited) => Good luck to those few who are trading this cross
Long
by ridethepig
Mixed Technique: Bring back strong peso and old school reggaetonWelcome to the series where I play with both technical and fundamental aspects of the market. Leave your suggestions if you want me to cover a specific asset. Technical story: As everyone but Maluma noticed, FX_IDC:EURCOP is really close to marking all time... close, but breaking high may come too. The correlation with emerging markets ( AMEX:VWO ), although broken in 2017 and for the most of 2018, seems to be making a return. It is hard to judge it because the market sell-off usually unites different asset sub-classes better than Santos uniting people of Colombia (no disrespect, calm yourself down). USDCOP broke out of the long-term wedge and seems to be heading higher. We have two main resistance lines to watch now: 3710 and 3910; and two main support lines: 3610 and 3555. For now the EURCOP seems to be making new 52-week high, it may suggest further upward moves. Neither of used indicators is suggesting the end of the rally. VWO coming down would definitely trigger the risk-on mode and bid the COP. If we face a bear market, the COP will definitely not be used as a safe haven. Fundamental story: Fundamentals look a little bit better for Colombia. I prepared a couple of charts for you: GDP seems to be improving, inflation is kept low, debt to GDP is falling. Most of fundamentals suggest there is nothing as bad in Colombia as there was in 2016. Currency is however howering around levels from 2016. I presume it is falling down with the rest of emerging currencies, suggesting risk-off mode. fred.stlouisfed.org - interest rate differential with USD suggests COP should be way lower. I KNOW IT IS USD, don't cry please. We can see however that heading to 2016 the currency was crushed. This was back when the economy was not doing so good and GDP dropped. Look like worries came back, but they are not to be seen for now. fred.stlouisfed.org - Real Broad effective exchange rate (RBEER) rallied a lot during this year and the yoy change seems to be too high as for interest rate differential (IRD, used TVC:DE10Y as a proxy for Euro long term interest rate). In the years 2005, 2007, 2010, when it happened, the yoy change in RBEER caught up eventually within 1-2 years. Beware the IRD yoy change is already below zero for more than a year. fred.stlouisfed.org - my favourite chart. Real interest rate differential vs EURCOP. The currency pair seems to have rallied a bit too much in 2016 and 2017 and we can expect a comeback to the range 3200-3000. Other option is that Colombian yields would have to rally suggesting weakness in Colombia's credibility or economy d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net - Manufacturing PMI is above 50 and suggests a healthy economy In the first half of 2018 it looked like the FX_IDC:EURCOP was trying to break lower but I believe the current market situation kicked it higher Conclusions: Technicals are undecided yet. We are at a cross-road. In my opinion it is flipping a bird at COP bulls and may strengthen EUR against our reggeaton peso. Fundamentals of Colombia are strong and even interest rate differential sugest that the currency should appreciate against the euro. I believe it is a short-term bearish, long-term bullish situation for COP.
by Slimsy
1
ARGT on life supportI just don't understand why this and other emerging markets are getting new life this week. The IMF is and central banks are buying the peso to prevent its free fall. However, the Country's GDP just SHRANK 4%. Some banks are telling folks to by emerging markets now, which doesn't make sense as any price rise is due to central banks buying currency and not due to a strong economy. Who know what kind of dead cat bounce will occur in the next few weeks, but long term prospects are not good. First target at support of 22$, second target at 19$. Peso down over 50% since December and weaker peso compound debt woes.
AMEX:ARGTShort
by swift32
PHP downtrend continuation. Great R:R.The Peso continues to decline this month. Since the 10% crash from January to February, the long term trend is in a downwards channel. However I believe that it will once again break below the channel and continue to fall. (Click and drag on the price axis to move the chart). Looking at more short term profits: A Head and Shoulders pattern is forming on the daily chat. This is normally a reversal pattern and not a continuation, however I believe that a 50% retracement of the "head" will still act as resistance, as it has in previous red daily candles. See the black horizontal minor resistance level from the past month as this also lines up. Normally the target of this H&S would be a 1:1 extension of the head to the neckline, however because it will be breaking this important channel, there is no resistance there to hold it so expect a drop fast. Possible resistance level is the black line on the chart. The RSI is not near the oversold level, so still has further to fall. Downsides: -There have not been any noticeable H&S formations on this pairing in the past. -H&S normally signifies a reversal rather than continuation. -The resistance in the channel may be enough to push it back up as this "H&S" is not yet so big. If this fails then look for a short opportunity after a larger structure. Good luck trading.
by Etch1234
What is trending this week? Not much.Out of 32 charts I watch only 3 are trending, and I missed my entry on 2 of them which are silver and USDMXN huhuhu. Well maybe some exotics are trending my account to trade them is not set up yet so I did not check 4-5 charts. Before I write what I think, I would just want to post my watchlist, and if someone is interested in what I think about one of those, I could make an idea, not like I am overwhelmed by activity. 7 majors EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD GBPUSD NZDUSD USDCHF 10 exotic USD pairs USDSEK USDMXN USDCNH USDNOK USDCZK USDHUF USDPLN USDSGD USDTHB USDTRY 8 minors EURJPY EURCAD EURNZD EURCHF EURGBP GBPCAD CHFJPY GBPJPY 3 metals Gold Copper Silver 1 energy Oil 2 agriculture commodities Soybean Cotton 1 crypto (only one since they are all directly correlated) BTCUSD or ETHUSD For a total of 32 7 majors 10 exotic USD pairs 8 minors 2 metals (could add silver) 1 energy Oil 2 agriculture futures 1 crypto Anyway, so once again I missed good trades, and all I got left is Bitcoin. I use moving averages a bit like the guppy method to help confirm a trend, GMMA's use EXPONENTIAL moving averages, but it is not that different, and displaying the MA's helps. I just made an indicator with all of them so I don't have to bother everytime. Right now I removed the 100 150 200 MA's because it is just gross, there is too much and it pollutes the chart, but I will display them from time to time. There are many ways to see this, but here are the 3 main reasons I think Bitcoin will go up and we should long on 7600. Target will most likely be 10000 or 12000, we will see later. Shall Bitcoin get close to 7600 I will zoom in and try to get the best entry. It probably gets overcut again, but if it gets overcut too much I rather miss out whatever, there are going to be opportunities elsewhere in a few weeks at most (right?)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MrRenev
18