Get started

Pesomexicano

USD/MXN Remains Neutral Around the 20 Pesos per Dollar ZoneOver the past two trading sessions, USD/MXN has maintained a steady neutral movement, showing barely 1% total variation in price. This growing neutral bias has persisted as the market continues to await how a potential trade war could affect the Mexican peso. Recent comments from President Trump suggested that the tariffs may not officially come into effect on April 2, adding to the uncertainty. Major moves in the pair could resume as new updates on the tariff situation emerge in the coming sessions. Broad Sideways Range: The pair continues to move within a clear sideways range, between the resistance at 20.95 pesos per dollar and the key support at 20.00. Recent bearish moves have been insufficient to break through this level decisively, leaving the sideways structure dominant in the USD/MXN market. ADX Indicator: The ADX line has remained below the 20 level in recent sessions, indicating that recent movements lack the strength to be considered trend-driven. This continues to point to a neutral market environment in the pair. RSI Indicator: A similar situation is seen in the RSI, with the line hovering near the neutral 50 level, suggesting that buying and selling pressure remain in balance. For now, this neutrality is helping reinforce the support barrier currently holding in USD/MXN. Key Levels: 20.95 pesos per dollar – A key resistance level aligned with the recent highs. Sustained buying above this zone could reactivate bullish momentum and lead to a potential breakout from the current range. 20.00 pesos per dollar – The most important short-term support , matching the lower boundary of the broader sideways channel. Bearish moves below this level could lead to stronger downward pressure in the sessions ahead. 19.33 pesos per dollar – A distant support level , located around neutral price zones seen in September 2024. Selling pressure that reaches this level could confirm the beginning of a new bearish trend in USD/MXN. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
USDMXN: Mexican Peso Gains Strength and Approaches Key SupportOver the last six trading sessions, the USD/MXN price has dropped more than 3.5% as the Mexican peso has regained ground lost due to the ongoing conflict between Mexico and the White House. For now, the bearish bias has been driven by the March 6th extension on the tariff imposition, which gave the Mexican government a reprieve until April 2nd. This has allowed the Mexican peso to maintain a steady uptrend in the short term, sustaining selling pressure on USD/MXN. Lateral Range: Since early November 2024, USD/MXN has been oscillating within a sideways range, marked by a ceiling at 20.89 pesos per dollar and a floor at 20.07 pesos per dollar. The current bearish bias has pushed the price back to the lower boundary of the channel, and the weakening momentum of the last few sessions could reinforce the support barrier that remains intact. ADX Indicator: The ADX line has started showing consistent neutrality near the 20 level, suggesting that recent movements lack strong trend direction. This indicates that neutrality may persist as the price continues approaching the support level. MACD Indicator: The MACD histogram shows a similar scenario, with oscillations remaining very close to the neutral 0 level. This reinforces the current indecision in the market as the price approaches the support zone. Key Levels: 20.43: Near-term resistance zone, aligning with the midpoint of the broad sideways range and converging with the 50- and 100-period simple moving averages. Sustained oscillations above this level could keep the sideways range active in the long term. 20.07: Crucial support zone, located at the lower boundary of the broad sideways range. Consistent oscillations below this level could break the current range and pave the way for a more prolonged bearish move in the coming sessions. 20.89: Distant resistance zone, marking the upper boundary of the sideways channel. If the price reaches this level, it could reactivate the forgotten uptrend. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
I see a bump for the Mexican Peso and then a dive after summerI anticipate the antiglobalism movement will enrich Mexico for cheap labor (unless Trump gets elected then the Peso will melt down due to the tariffs) where China is already passing our own tariffs by exporting to Mexico where it gets a new shiny label and tariffs don't apply. I believe a billionaire has made moves to gather up the trucking and logistic companies in Mexico because of the growth. Afterwards, no matter what, the dollar TVC:DXY will soar to 140-160+ until itself too implodes leading to hyperinflation in the USA which will catalyze an opportunity to move to CBDC's based on social credit scores (negative interest rates). I also see the TTM squeeze executing on all major TF's so a major move is coming!! Usually we see a bounce of the opposite side as a fake breakout, then a squeeze in the opposite direction lasting for 8 TF bars. Multiple consecutive TF's hint at a massive move and alignment
by EmptyEternity
2
MXNJPY - (massive) SHORT!The BoJ, if anything, made it's "guidance" even murkier (as if that were anyway possible) with it's most recent policy announcements. E.g., let's just say that the Yen, currently residing just below the miner-frog's hind quarters, has a better chance to start working it's way higher than otherwise. Simultaneously, the Mexican Peso, having just completed a couple of moon-shots (versus the ZAR and the USD, among others) is well positioned for a pause for the cause to catch it's breath. This pair, being one of the premier carry-trades, is also a prime Short candidate to coincide with the much anticipated global equities weakness. Waiting on a Daily Reversal or to see whether this pair finds in itself to make a final push for the Stop Hunt at 8.72. (Don't bet on it!) Look for a Short Entry , anywhere here, with a short target around 6.50 ( ~25%). (... the completed cypher is on the Monthly(!), i.e., it is very powerful!) Here is the 480 min.;
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
What do USD/MXN and S&P 500 VIX have in common?The Mexican peso (MXN) is one of the conventional high-beta currencies traded on the forex market, making it extremely susceptible to changes in risk sentiment on global financial markets. When MXN inflows occur, it usually signals that investors are willing to take risks. In the last three months, USD/MXN has lost 3%, making the peso one of the best-performing currency in 2022. Much of the MXN's outperformance has been the result of a very hawkish Mexican Central Bank, which hiked interest rates up to 9.25%, the highest since 2005. Another 75bps hike is expected at November 10th meeting, which would bring Mexican rates to 10%. Aside from the Banxico hiking cycle in Mexico, the Peso has a strong correlation with global risk factors, namely the stock market volatility. To put it another way, historically, the USD/MXN pair and the S&P volatility index ( VIX ) have behaved similarly. What are we seeing now? The USD/MXN 14-day RSI indicator has entered oversold territory, highlighting the need for caution for investors willing to take on more risk at this stage, as MXN valuations are beginning to appear rather stretched. Therefore, the bearish momentum for both USD/MXN and the VIX might have reached a peak. Aside from the results of the midterm elections, investors will almost definitely have to digest another strong US CPI data this week. Analysts predict 8% annual inflation in October, with core inflation at 6.5%. If actual results match or exceed estimates, Fed interest rate expectations will likely be reassessed higher. As the U.S. and Mexican economies are highly interdependent, the anticipated cyclical weakening of the U.S. economy bodes poorly for the Mexican economy and adds to MXN downward pressures. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity market specialist at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
USDMXN - Peso technical analysis! Peso! It's an EM currency that I enjoy trading the most, it's the behaviour the MXN moves. It's important to seek out how currencies behaviors are. Now let's dive into the technicals: Pattern: Wedge Support: 19.79294 - 19.71330 Resistance: 19.93628 - 20.07432 Long: Above 1st resistance area and close above 20.07400 areas Target areas: 20.4000 - 20.37660 (200 EMA Area) Short: Below support areas 19.71330 and confirmed close Target: 19.54620 - 19.30700 Key tip: It's important for confirmed closes, as you could get a fake a break out as well. Remember: Just a trade idea, not a recommendation. All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
2
Updated USD/MXN long outlook: US Oil, futures, RSI and more.Hello traders! I hope you are doing okay in these stressful times. I have been monitoring my USD/MXN long (now in drawdown) and checking again that I have my facts right: is it a good idea? The timing of it maybe stinks (got in too early?) but the general idea seems sound. Today I look at: - US Oil and MXN correlation in the last ten years, and where in the correlation window we are positioned at present; - ATR performance of USD/MXN versus price movement; - RSI over several time-frames, showing a distinct bottoming out that is negating the downtrend in USD/MXN; - MXN/USD (CME) futures (expiry: December 2020) contracts show an hourly buy volume divergence from the price rally since 19th November; - confluence of technical levels (Fib. 0.76 retracement of the 'pandemic swing' earlier this year; long-term resistance from 2018 and 2019, turned support; long-term rising trendline on the monthly chart). All of these seem to suggest that we could be at a turning point; the answer is whether the sellers will fold their positions and thus generate a reversal by a lack of selling positions, or whether buyers will force that reversal; also, fundamentals may kick in, but as the analyst quoted in the Reuters article (that I show in my video) says, it is no longer about fundamentals but about a carry trade that attracts the Mxn. Peso buying. Take care and see you in my next. As John Kicklighter (Daily FX) likes to say at the end of his videos: "Good luck trading out there". Francesco
Long
by Forexistential
1