Palantir Technologies | PLTRPalantir stock is set to pop in the next year as the tech firm erects an artificial intelligence "fortress" that will help it become one of the biggest players in the AI race in the coming decade, Wedbush Securities analysts wrote on Friday.
According to Wedbush's Dan Ives, Palantir is headed to $25 a share in the next 12 months. That represents a surge of 54% from Thursday's closing price of $16.15. Shares were up 5.7% at $17.07 early Friday.
The data software firm, which has been funded in part by the CIA's In-Q-Tel venture capital arm, is the "Messi" of AI, Ives said, referring to Argentine soccer superstar Lionel Messi.
"As we begin the 4th Industrial Revolution, Palantir is engaging in the widespread trend of various industries leveraging recent generative AI innovations to streamline operations and improve expense profiles," the Wedbush analysts wrote. Given Palantir's wide roster of partners in both the public and private spheres, Wedbush sees the next six to 12 months as a period of significant expansion for the company as it serves the growing demand for enterprise-scale large language AI models.
"This is early innings on a sum-of-the-parts AI story just on the cusp on monetizing this massive green field AI opportunity," it predicted.
Palantir CEO Alex Karp has been a vocal proponent of the rapid development of AI even in the face of risks associated with the technology.
In an op-ed for the New York Times this week, he wrote that AI will shape political developments in this century in the same way that nuclear weapons drove geopolitics in the last century. He cautioned that there are risks, but they should not deter the continued advancement of AI. "If these technologies are to exist alongside us over the long term, it will also be essential to rapidly construct systems that allow more seamless collaboration between human operators and their algorithmic counterparts, to ensure that the machine remains subordinate to its creator," he wrote. "We must not, however, shy away from building sharp tools for fear they may be turned against us."
Palantir is one of the most popular stocks, and for many, it's been a wild ride. Since the direct listing, investors have seen shares skyrocket to the high FWB:30S , crash to $5.84, and ride the AI boom back to the high teens. I invested in PLTR at the direct listing and purchased shares on the way up and as they declined in price. I was vocal about my dissatisfaction with how Alex Karp handled what has now become the infamous Q2 2022 conference call and became bullish again as PLTR turned things around. 2023 has been a strong year for PLTR as shares have increased by 182.47% YTD. Some investors have done well, while others got back to even or chipped away at the losses. Since May 5, shares have appreciated by 143.59%, appreciating from $7.41 to $18.05. Q2 2023 earnings are around the corner as PLTR is set to report post-market on August 7. Shares can continue higher into earnings and continue throughout 2023 if PLTR delivers growth across its revenue, earnings, customers, and contracts while maintaining its Q2 free cash flow (FCF) margins. In this article, I will discuss what I am looking for in the Q2 2023 earnings report and provide some insights as to what I think shares of PLTR could be worth in the future.
In 2021, PLTR made 45 official announcements through its website newsroom, and in 2022, PLTR had 44 announcements. PLTR has been busy in 2023; through July 18, they have made 26 official announcements. This doesn't include any of the blog posts PLTR has written discussing the work their conducting. I continuously research these aspects as they provide insight into what will be discussed on the earnings call and in the 10-Q. In Q2 2023, PLTR posted 14 press releases and another four in July. For PLTR to continue its growth trajectory, it needs more adaptation of its products in the government space as well as the private sector.
I expect PLTR to deliver strong growth numbers as there have been significant partnerships announced since April 1. On the government side, Palantir announced two deals with government entities in Ukraine, including the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. PLTR announced that Ukraine would utilize its technology to support the defense and reconstruction of the country and empower Ukraine investigators with critical data processing tools regarding 78,000 registered war crimes. US Special Operations Command entered a multi-year contract worth up to $463 million to expand its enterprise capabilities.
On the commercial side, PLTR expanded its cloud partnership with Microsoft (MSFT), entered into an agreement to build an integrated management flow system on top of Foundry for CA Modas S.A, and expanded its partnership with Jacobs Solutions (J). These partnerships are critical because it will allow PLTR to expand throughout several sectors through some of the largest counterparts. I expect the Jacobs and Microsoft partnerships to be extremely beneficial in the coming years as more companies look to create value by enabling AI and moving toward data-driven decisions.
PLTR guided for revenue to come in at $528-$532 million in Q2 and revenue of $2.185-$2.235 billion for the full year. In Q1, PLTR delivered $525.2 million in revenue which is 24.04% of the low-end estimates and 23.5% of the high-end estimates for 2023. For PLTR to meet its 2023 full-year revenue guidance, it would need to generate an average of $553.27 million in Q2–Q4 to meet the low-end projection and an average of $569.94 to meet the high-end estimates.
I expect PLTR to deliver at least $550 million in revenue for Q2 and discuss how they will increase incremental revenue throughout the year as more contracts continue to be initiated on an ongoing basis. If we see anywhere from $550-$575 million in revenue for Q2, it would be a strong indication that the high-end estimates will be met or exceeded when they report their 2023 fiscal year numbers. If PLTR records $550 million in Q2, $575 million in Q3, and $601 million in Q4, PLTR will generate $2.25 billion in annual revenue for 2023. This would be an average QoQ revenue increase of 4.6% over the next three quarters. I think it will be a strong signal coming off the AIP conference if PLTR is on track to beat the high-end estimates, as that would mean PLTR will be moving into the $600 million quarterly revenue bracket sometime in 2023 and inching their way closer to generating over $1 billion in revenue on a quarterly basis.
PLTR has now strung together two consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability and is projecting its adjusted income from operations coming in at $118-$122 million in 2023 and between $506-$556 million for their fiscal year. In Q1 2023, PLTR generated $125.11 million in adjusted income from operations, which is 24.73% of the low-end projection and 22.50% of the high-end estimate. This would mean that PLTR would need to increase its adjusted income throughout the year to meet its annualized projections.
I dislike adjusted numbers and prefer free cash flow (FCF) as it's harder to distort than other profitability measures. In Q1, PLTR generated $188.9 million in adjusted FCF, which is a 36% margin. PLTR's true FCF number was $182.6 million, as they generated $187.4 million in cash from operations and allocated $4.8 million toward CapEx. This places PLTR's FCF margin at 34.77%, which is the largest margin they have operated at since becoming a publicly traded company.
I have previously indicated that I believe PLTR can replicate similar growth to Salesforce (CRM). CRM currently has a market cap of $223.51 billion and, in the TTM, has generated $32.19 billion of revenue and $7.06 billion in FCF. Mr. Market is valuing CRM at a 6.94x multiple on sales, and 31.64x FCF. CRM has seen explosive growth over the last decade as its grown its revenue by 690.67% and its FCF by 1,125.54%. Including the TTM, CRM has operated at a 20.57% FCF margin over the previous five years.If PLTR finishes on the high-end of their revenue estimates for 2023 they would deliver $2.25 billion in revenue. PLTR's previous projections placed their 2025 revenue at $4 billion or more and I don't recall seeing updated estimates. If PLTR comes in on the high end of the 2023 projections and generates $2.25 billion, its YoY revenue growth would have decelerated from 41.11% in 2021 to 23.61% in 2022 and 18.12% in 2023. Hypothetically, if PLTR can grow its revenue at a 15% YoY basis over the next decade from 2024–2033, it would generate $2.98 billion in revenue for 2025 and $9.12 billion in 2033. At a 33% FCF margin in 2033, PLTR would generate $3 billion in FCF. At a 32x multiple on FCF, PLTR would be valued at $96.17 billion.
If PLTR can maintain an 18% YoY revenue growth rate and maintain a 33% FCF margin, PLTR will generate $11.78 billion in revenue and $3.89 billion in FCF in 2033. At a 32x FCF multiple, PLTR would be valued at $124.42 billion. If PLTR was to grow at a quicker pace of 21% YoY on average, they would generate $15.15 billion in revenue and $5 billion in FCF in 2033. Assigning a 32x multiple on their FCF would place PLTR at a $159.93 billion valuation.
Based on these assumptions, PLTR could grow between 151.49%-318.23% over the next decade, which would be an annualized return of 15.15%-31.82%. These are just assumptions regarding what could occur and why I feel PLTR could be a good long-term investment.
For those who think a 32x multiple on FCF is a crazy valuation, I am going to place a table below. Based on the current market caps, big tech has multiples from 31.29x to 221.31x. Putting the outliers aside, it's not uncommon to see companies trade in the 40x range. Even companies such as the Coca-Cola Company (KO) trade at a 29.90x multiple and PepsiCo (PEP) trade at a 45.41x multiple on FCF.
Peterthiel
PYPL PayPal Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsPYPL had some events in the past 2 years that determined its price action.
Went down after its CFO left for Walmart:
Had a technical rebound buy opportunity after reaching the 2017 support:
and determined a lot of users leaving their platform after announcing a $2.5K fine for spreading misinformation:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PYPL PayPal Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $8.20.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
EBAY Options Ahead of EarningsI wonder who is still using Ebay?! I used to have a store there and close it because of their high fees.
If you haven`t sold EBAY here, on the active buyers decline:
Then you should know that looking at the EBAY options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $47.5 strike price Puts with
2023-7-21 expiration date for about
$3.70 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
I have chosen that expiration date to allow me to be wrong and not close the position and to have a bigger gain by the expiration date, if EBAY keeps going lower.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
PYPL PayPal Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t shorted PayPal after my last chart:
Then you should know that looking at the PYPL PayPal options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $85 strike price Puts with
2023-4-21 expiration date for about
$6.30 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
PYPL PayPal $2.5K fine for users spreading misinformationIf you haven`t sold PYPL at $171:
or reentered at $68:
Then you should know that PYPL PayPal has removed the policy that would have fined users $2.5K for spreading misinformation.
PayPal said the issue statement was a mistake and denied this policy.
I think it was a "mistake" that will lead to multiple accounts closing and because of that I just downgraded PYPL to $69.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
PYPL Buy OpportunityIf you haven`t sold PYPL ahead of earnings:
As much i as i don`t like to work with PayPal on my store due to their high commission fees, i like the October 2017 level of the stock on a P/E of 23.60.
I`m looking for a technical rebound to the $88 resistance.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
PYPL short term reversal If you haven`t sold PYPL ahead of earnings:
then it seems like it has found a support at $95 from which is aiming higher to the $120 resistance.
PYPL at May 2019 levelIf you haven`t sold the stock ahead of earnings:
Then you should know that PYPL is at the May 2019 level and approaching its strongest support area.
I would expect some consolidation here, until they figure out how to lower those commission fees that are `killing` the people who are using PayPal. From my personal experience as a seller, i try to avoid PayPal as much as i can because of the fees. :)
Strong competitors are coming.
Looking forward to read your opinion about PYPL.
PYPL ARK Invest sold PYPL ahead of EarningsYesterday Ark Invest sold more than 23K shares of PYPL just before the upcoming earnings this week.
Most likely today will do the same, since they tend to continue a buy or a sell trend.
The options are slightly bearish too, with more puts than buys recently.
PayPal (PYPL) is expected to earn $1.12 a share on sales of $6.89 billion.
With the rise of so many payment companies with low fees, and also banks who want to keep up with the new fintech, i wonder how PayPal can still have such a high PE Ratio (TTM) of 41.34!
My day to day experience with PayPal as a merchant makes me consider it an extremely expensive way of payment compared to others.
Considering the chart, fundamentals and current market conditions, my price target is $124.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
