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Crude Oil Prices Fall Amid Economic and Geopolitical ShiftsSince the beginning of October, crude oil prices have been on a downward trend, dropping from $77 to $70 in less than three months. This decline can be attributed to several geopolitical and economic factors. During this period, global economic growth showed signs of slowing, raising concerns about future oil demand. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions eased, leading to a more stable supply outlook. These combined factors have exerted downward pressure on crude oil prices.
NYMEX:CL1!
by aminearga
WTI Crude Oil Outlook: Eyeing Potential Demand Zone RecoveryWTI crude oil is currently trading around $68.25 as of this Tuesday, following a significant gap-down opening to start the week. The move lower was largely influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East, as recent developments suggested a more contained military approach, which alleviated fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt oil supply. Upcoming U.S. Economic Data: GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus The U.S. economic calendar this week includes key data releases, beginning with the flash Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q3 on Wednesday, projected to show an annualized growth rate of around 3%. A stronger-than-expected GDP figure could bolster the USD, adding pressure to USD-denominated assets like crude oil, as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Following the GDP report, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will provide additional insight into U.S. labor market conditions, which could further influence dollar strength and, subsequently, WTI prices. Technical Analysis: WTI Trading in Demand Zone From a technical perspective, WTI crude is currently positioned within a demand zone, where buyers could be eyeing a recovery of Monday's gap-down. This demand zone represents a critical area where traders are observing whether buying interest will drive prices higher to close the gap. A recovery attempt here, with a tight stop loss, could offer a favorable risk-to-reward setup, particularly if data later in the week doesn’t significantly strengthen the USD. Conclusion The WTI crude oil market remains vulnerable to geopolitical developments and U.S. economic data this week, with a stronger USD potentially capping any recovery attempts. However, should the upcoming data align with current estimates or underperform, there may be room for WTI to rally from its demand zone, attempting to reclaim some of the lost ground from the recent gap-down. Traders may want to monitor these key levels and events closely, as they could provide both direction and confirmation for near-term price movement in WTI crude oil. ✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by FOREXN1
6
WTI Dips as Israel Avoids Targeting Iran’s Oil: What’s Next?The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.60 during Thursday's London session. The price edged lower following reports that Israel has assured the United States it will not target Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities in its planned retaliatory attacks. This news, as reported by senior Biden administration officials and the Wall Street Journal, came after the US sought to prevent further escalation in the Middle East to avoid a potential surge in oil prices. Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and Oil Prices Oil markets have been on edge due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Any potential retaliation involving Iran has been closely watched, given Iran’s role as a major oil producer in the region. Had Israel planned to target Iran’s oil infrastructure, it could have led to significant supply disruptions, pushing oil prices higher. For now, traders are breathing a sigh of relief with the promise from Israel to avoid targeting these facilities, but geopolitical tensions still remain a key factor that could influence WTI in the near future. Should tensions escalate further, WTI prices could quickly rebound on supply concerns. OPEC and IEA Cut Global Oil Demand Forecasts This week also brought another major development for oil markets as both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024. The IEA now estimates global oil demand will grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing total demand to 104.3 million bpd next year, which is 300,000 bpd below previous estimates. These cuts are being driven by several factors, including the weakening global economic outlook and persistent challenges in key oil-consuming regions. In particular, China’s economic stimulus measures have failed to provide a meaningful boost to oil demand, further weighing on oil prices. This downward revision in demand growth expectations has created additional headwinds for crude oil prices, contributing to the recent decline in WTI. Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment But Potential Long Retracement From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently trading within a key demand area, suggesting that some buyers may step in to support prices. While the forecast based on seasonality points toward a bearish trend in the near term, there are some indications that a deeper long retracement could occur. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that institutional investors, also known as "smart money," are maintaining long positions, indicating potential underlying support for oil prices. This dynamic suggests that while prices may experience further pressure in the short term, a retracement to the upside could occur if demand for oil begins to pick up or if geopolitical tensions resurface with greater intensity. Conclusion: WTI Traders Remain Cautious Amid Mixed Signals For now, WTI remains in a delicate position, influenced by a mix of geopolitical risks, lower global demand forecasts, and technical factors. The assurance from Israel that its retaliatory strikes will avoid targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure has alleviated some immediate concerns about a spike in oil prices. However, the ongoing geopolitical situation remains fluid, and any sudden escalation could quickly reverse the current price trajectory. At the same time, the reduced demand growth outlook from both OPEC and the IEA creates a bearish overhang for crude prices. With China’s stimulus measures failing to spark a meaningful recovery in demand, traders will be closely watching for any new developments that could shift the balance of supply and demand in the oil market. In summary, WTI may continue to face downward pressure in the short term, but a potential long retracement remains on the table, especially if market conditions or geopolitical tensions shift in the coming days. For now, traders are likely to stay cautious, awaiting clearer signals before taking decisive positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by FOREXN1
1
Brent Oil Resistance Rejection IdeaDescription: Brent oil is approaching a key resistance level. This level previously acted as support, but after being broken, it has now turned into resistance. If the price revisits this area, there’s a high probability of rejection based on past price action. Trade Idea: Watch for the price to approach the resistance level. If there are signs of rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns or declining momentum), this could be a good opportunity for a short position. Set a stop-loss slightly above the resistance level in case the price breaks through. Potential target: Previous support level.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by rebenga93
WTI Rises Above $84.50 Amid Summer Demand ExpectationsWith the peak of the summer travel season, marked by the Independence Day holiday this week, US oil demand is expected to surge. The American Automobile Association (AAA) projects travel during this period to be 5.2% higher than in 2023, with car travel alone increasing by 4.8% compared to the previous year, according to Reuters. Crude oil markets are further supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Israel-Palestinian Hamas conflict continues to create volatility in energy markets. Investors are concerned that a potential cross-border spillover could involve direct action from Iran, a Hamas supporter, threatening crude oil supplies and logistical stability in the region. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the steepest week-on-week decline in US Weekly Crude Oil Stocks in nearly two years. API data showed a significant weekly decrease of -9.163 million barrels, far exceeding the forecasted -150K drawdown and following the previous week’s -3 million barrel decline. Given our forecast, we are currently considering a short position in the supply area. Typically, crude oil production for summer demand occurs in the preceding months, leading to higher oil prices before the summer season. Our seasonality analysis indicates that crude oil prices generally decline in trading from the end of July through September. Therefore, we are now looking for a short position. ✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by FOREXN1
1
What does OIL (BRENT PETROL) mean for the world economy?#BRENT Oil (Petrol) 1W chart; What does oil mean for the world economy? Oil is critical to the world economy and is considered the basic energy source of modern industrial societies. And then there are the quarterbacks. Market makers, a term we hear a lot in the crypto space. These and similar important charts cannot be moved by ordinary people. They cannot afford it. Only the most important countries in the world can do it. So what usually happens when these charts come to trend breaks? While situations such as war, geopolitical tensions, chaos, finding a vaccine for an existing virus move the chart upwards, Situations such as viruses, recessions, economic depressions also move the chart downwards. Significant chart movements are only possible with these and similar news. Conscious or unconscious. If you think there is anything unconscious in the world, I can't say anything about it. The trend line in the middle is important. I have indicated the details of the important breaks and critical intersections on the chart. But there is one place I would like to draw your attention. Russia-Ukraine war; The chart is rising sharply with pre-decline gapped openings and momentum candles. What happens in the world in such a situation? Energy, industrial production costs, important basic services such as electricity, heating, transportation, raw material prices would increase. Global economic slowdowns. Geopolitical tensions increase. In short, inflation would be fueled. Just like the economic crisis that would be caused by a sharp fall in the oil prices of the countries that depend on oil for their economies. Then energy companies cannot make a profit. Labor prices would fall, companies would go bankrupt, unemployment would rise. In short... Inflation was deliberately and willfully fueled. Because it was time to start raising interest rates. The world was not ready for that yet. With the war, the chart went up 40% in 2 weeks. I am not talking about any coin in crypto, I am talking about the oil chart increasing 40% in such a short time. You all know the scenario afterwards. The top of the chart is where the red needle is. March 2022. The Fed has officially started the cycle of rate hikes with 25 basis points.
VELOCITY:BRENT
by ugurtash
Bullish Oil Options Traded at Record Pace Before Iran AttackOil investors piled into the options market days before Iran launched its attack on Israel and traded a record amount of contracts that profit from higher prices. Just over 1 million calls on the global Brent crude benchmark traded last week, surpassing a previous record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The volumes were focused on contracts at $95 and above $100, with bullish calls trading at hefty premiums to bearish puts in recent weeks. Traders have been flocking to the oil options market in order to hedge themselves against the risk of prices moving higher if the conflict between Israel and Iran widens further. Options are often used to protect against major geopolitical risks as they allow a cheaper way of profiting from a spike in prices. Many of the bets won’t have profited yet given that crude prices and market volatility retreated when the market opened early on Monday, with the benchmark now changing hands below $90. However, as tensions in the region remain high such hedges are likely to remain in place over the coming weeks. Calls at $100 and $110 are the most held options contracts over the next 12 months for Brent, according to ICE Futures Europe data compiled by Bloomberg. On Thursday alone, about 29 million barrels of new call option contracts were opened on the nearest trading month.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Elite_Forex
Crude Oil Market Insights: Exploring Potential ReversalUS crude oil prices have experienced continued selling pressure for the third consecutive day, with the market reaching the $83 mark. This price level is accompanied by notable areas of resistance, suggesting the potential for a reversal in the near term. Recent events have contributed to the uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices. Notably, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have raised concerns about a potential decrease in fuel production by Russia. This incident compounds the impact of OPEC+ members' decision to extend production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the second quarter. Adding to the mix, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024, predicting an upward trend. This, coupled with expectations of a stronger US economy and a potential recovery in China, suggests a tightening of oil supplies on the horizon. In light of these developments, traders are advised to exercise caution. While selling pressure persists, the convergence of factors such as geopolitical tensions, production cuts, and demand forecasts could act as a catalyst for a reversal in crude oil prices. Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor key resistance levels and market dynamics for signs of a potential bearish setup. With multiple variables at play, prudent risk management and a keen eye on market developments will be crucial for navigating the volatile crude oil market effectively.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by FOREXN1
1
IOC 4 YEARS OF SUPPLY ZONE BREAKOUT IN OCT 2023SUPPLY ZONE BREAKOUT IN OCT 2023 But i suggested this stock on 12th Nov 2023 at 100 level Entered at 100 Targets - 110,120,130,150+ 3 TARGETS COMPLETED IN JUST 45 DAYS.... GIVEN 35 POINTS (35%) RETURNS CMP - 129.85 Re-entry possible at 120 levels... if again falls than average at 110 level @Jagadheesh_JP In this channel, I share my expertise in trading strategies, technical analysis, and market trends to help you make informed decisions in your trading ventures. Stay tuned for daily updates, in-depth market analyses, and real-time trading scenarios to witness firsthand how we transform from Zero to Hero in the trading world. My Only aim is to empower you with the knowledge and skills necessary to navigate the complexities of the financial markets successfully. Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:IOC
by Jagadheesh_JP
The Price of Black Gold: A Poetic Analysis -- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. -- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. -- The MACD for Brent Oil is currently above the signal line and in positive territory. This suggests that the uptrend in Brent Oil remains intact. -- Potential Direction for Brent Oil Based on the Elliott Wave, RSI, MACD, and other technical tactics, the potential direction for Brent Oil on the weekly timeframe is bullish. Brent Oil is likely to continue its uptrend, with the next target being the 100 USD level. However, if Brent Oil breaks below the 80 USD level, it would suggest that the uptrend is at risk. -- Factors That Could Affect the Analysis There are a number of factors that could affect the analysis of Brent Oil, including: Global economic growth: A strong global economy will lead to increased demand for oil, which would support prices. Geopolitical tensions: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and other oil-producing regions could lead to supply disruptions, which would boost prices. US monetary policy: The US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. This could lead to a slowdown in the global economy and a decline in oil demand, which would weigh on prices. Overall, the technical outlook for Brent Oil is bullish on the weekly timeframe. However, investors should be aware of the factors that could affect the analysis and should adjust their positions accordingly. -- Additional Notes It is important to note that no technical analysis is perfect, and the price of Brent Oil could move in a way that is not anticipated by the analysis above. Investors should always do their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by YExplore
The Downward Trajectory: Understanding Weak Oil Market DynamicsOil looks weak. It seems extremely weak, mainly because production hasn't come down. Chinese demand is still low and might never reach its ATHs, but this, along with the US refilling its SPR, can potentially send higher oil prices. However, this is unlikely to happen before the market takes out this quadruple bottom. Until all the lows are swept, and potentially until the market trades at 43-55$, it's unlikely to see oil go up. Only those prices will make OPEC+ cut production and have 80+ as its target. Until many of these member countries feel pain, it's unlikely that oil will trade above 80$ without some other geopolitical shock. Again, oil can trade higher, but for now, the target is 60.6$, and potentially 54.2$ is next. We can look for potential longs toward 85-100$.
TVC:USOILShort
by BitcoinMacro
1