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Will UKOIL continue its decline?The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that global oil demand will reach a higher level this year, while noting that the increase in production will be lower than previously forecasted. Additionally, the EIA reduced its price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2024 by 2.4%, from $84.44 per barrel to $82.80 per barrel. As a result, Brent crude oil prices fell to the $70.0 level. Technically, if the 69.30 support level is broken, further declines toward 67.50 and 65.60 are possible. On the upside, if the 71.50 resistance is surpassed, buying momentum could accelerate toward the 73.0 and 74.30 resistance levels.
TVC:UKOIL
by primequotes
"USOIL is going downward"The weakening labor market has reduced risk appetite in the markets, triggering a drop in crude oil prices toward the 67.50 level. Additionally, OPEC+'s crude oil production in August decreased by 300,000 barrels due to declines in Libya and Kazakhstan. However, ongoing supply concerns continue to pressure the commodity. Technically, if the 67.50 support level is broken, further declines toward 65.55 and 63.55 are possible. On the upside, if the 70.0 resistance is surpassed, buying momentum could accelerate toward the 72.60 and 74.50 resistance levels.
TVC:USOIL
by primequotes
USOIL : Weekly Technical AnalysisHi Traders! Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday due to demand concerns driven by weak economic growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer. Brent crude fell 1% to US$76.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.1% to US$73.50/b at last look early Tuesday. Demand concerns offset impacts of the production and export halt at Libya due to a political dispute, Reuters said in a Tuesday report. China's purchasing managers' index hit a six-month low in August and new home prices grew in the month at their weakest pace this year. Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its El Feel oil field from Sept. 2. Total production in the country had dropped to just over 591,000 barrels per day (b/d) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 b/d on Aug. 26, Reuters reported, citing NOC. However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is reportedly set to proceed with its planned output boost in October regardless of demand concerns, Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources. From a technical point of view, the break of the support (left wing) should confirm our bearish harmonic structure and subsequently push the price around $55. If OPEC confirms an increase in production, this element could support our idea. What do you think?
FX:USOILShort
by TheAnonymousBanker
7
Macro Monday 56~Venezuela - Democracy Beacons Economic Reform Macro Monday 56 Venezuela - Democracy Beacons Economic Reform As one of the core members of OPEC, Venezuela holds the distinction of having the largest oil reserves in the world with over 304 billion barrels beneath its surface. This is marginally more than the Saudi Arabia oil reserves. If you ever wondered where the largest oil reserves in the whole world where, they are located on the Orinoco Oil Belt in Central Venezuela. Unfortunately Venezuela has suffered from political and economic factors that hasn’t allowed the country and its people to benefit from this large natural resource. A national election on the 28th July 2024 has the potential to change everything and allow Venezuelans to form a democratic government. This has the promise of leading the country into a new positive social and economic epoch. Venezuela’s oil production plummeted by c.75% over the past ten years, largely due to political missteps. The current administrations illegal expropriations of foreign oil and gas assets were a major red flag for potential investors. Additionally, Venezuela’s poor governance, mismanagement, and U.S. sanctions have contributed to a drastic decline in oil output. In September 2023, Venezuela produced only 735,000 barrels per day, making it the 10th-largest producer in OPEC despite it being the largest global oil reserve. The situation highlights the some challenges faced by petrostates that heavily rely on oil exports and their governance over it. Path to Democracy calls for International Support Venezuela stands at a critical juncture, with the potential for a historic return to democracy by way of national election on 28th July 2024. The opposition has rallied behind a leading candidate, Edmundo González of the Democratic Unity Platform (PUD) for the upcoming national election. He has taken the place of the former disqualified Maria Corina Machado (unfairly ousted by the incumbent). The incumbent President Nicolás Maduro remains a significant obstacle and still gains support from a Chavista Base. The Chavista Base refers to the loyal supporters of Chavismo, a left-wing populist political ideology associated with the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. These supporters are committed to strong socialist ideas, programs, and government style that characterized Chávez’s rule from 1999 to 2013. Despite international pressure, sanctions and disapproval, this group remains fiercely loyal to the Chavista movement and its successor, President Nicolás Maduro. The opposition Edmundo González, has been leading the polls by over 20 - 40 points and thus the people of Venezuela are calling out for change having suffered under the socialist regime. Maduro's regime has arguably eroded democracy and has been the cause of significant economic pitfalls, and social unrest. To support Venezuelans’ fight for democracy, the United States may offer a legal off-ramp for Maduro and his allies, ensuring they won’t face prosecution if they recognize electoral defeat. This approach has worked in other countries like South Africa and Chile, after which both countries could move forward constructively and relatively peacefully. This approach could allow for a peaceful transition to democracy in Venezuela. A democratic Venezuela would benefit U.S. foreign policy, limit migration to the U.S, and reduce the influence of Russia and China in the South Americas via pacts like the BRICS. Previous efforts to achieve the off-ramp approach in Venezuela have failed, however the opposition leader González is ahead in most polls and the election is days away. With some international pressure/support, this could be a major moment for Venezuela, opening up the country and its resources to operate under a free market, allowing for competitive growth, innovation freedom, consumer sovereignty and free flowing export economy. Exports Venezuela is historically highly dependent on its petroleum oil exports. Crude oil, in particular, has been the primary driver of its export revenue. In recent years, Venezuela’s top exports include: 1. Mineral fuels including oil: This category represents 26.1% of total exports. 2. Iron and steel: Comprising 21% of exports. 3. Organic chemicals: Accounting for 9.9% of exports. 4. Aluminum: Representing 8.4% of exports. 5. Fish: Contributing 7.5% to export value. These products collectively account for 88.1% of Venezuela’s global shipments. Notably, mineral fuels (especially crude oil) have experienced significant growth in recent years. China, Turkey, Spain, the U.S., and Brazil are among Venezuela’s main export partners. Blooming Tourism Sector In 2023 Venezuela experienced a remarkable resurgence in international tourism. The country welcomed 1.25 million foreign visitors, marking a 90% increase compared to the previous year when 656,000 people arrived. While specific revenue figures for 2023 are not readily available, this surge in tourist arrivals indicates a positive trend for the Venezuelan tourism sector. I thought id mention just just a few attractions: 1.Angel Falls: Located in Canaima National Park, Angel Falls is the highest waterfall in the world, dropping 979 meters. Best seen during the rainy season (May to November) when water flow is abundant. 2.Los Roques Archipelago: This chain of islands, 160 kilometres north of the central coast, offers sun-drenched beaches, turquoise waters, and coral reefs. It’s a paradise for beach lovers and nature enthusiasts. The Chart Caracas Stock Exchange- BME:IBC Summary I cannot recommend taking an entry on the above chart and regardless, it would be incredibly difficult to do so with sanctions in place and the political turmoil that is yet to be resolved. However, a major date is approaching for the national election this coming Sunday 28th July 2024 , and it could be the beginning of a monumental positive shift for the future of Venezuela’s economy. We can only watch from afar and not forget that this country boasts thee largest oil reserves in the world, has a blooming tourism scene with some of the most unique tourist attractions, and a varied export economy. Somewhere in the future there will likely be great opportunity in Venezuela, however for the moment we await the shifting winds of democracy to catch the Venezuelan sails. Lets see what happens this Sunday. PUKA
I
by PukaCharts
Energy Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThis idea beholds 6 of the largest Energy companies in the world. (Shell, Chevron, Exxon, BP, Duke, and OXY Petroleum.) These macro schematics have been crafted through meticulous Fibonacci techniques. I've laid every one on a 3 month timeframe starting at 1988. History buffs will understand the time reference to the rough "start" of Middle Eastern conflicts from the West and the rise of the price of "fossil fuels". I'm not begging anyone to understand this genius mastery of Fib tools. You either see it or you don't. I've linked my ENERGY COMMODITIES idea below for more analysis.
NYSE:XOM
by MichaelBsul
IMPP: Potential Bullish Consolidation In Certain ShipownersWith BDRY (The Baltic Dry Index ETF), finally going up, we may start to see more shipper stocks go up. We've already started to see an uptick in SB, GASS, TK, and TNK, now we might start to see some action across the entire sector. I still would want to focus on those that are giving us at least a somewhat decent pattern, and IMPP in this case is both cheap and has potentially formed a Double Bottom with Bullish Divergence above the previous level of resistance. Given that it focuses on Oil and owns Ships, I think it can start rising with the Baltic Dry Index, especially if we get more demand for oil in the coming months.
NASDAQ:IMPPLong
by RizeSenpai
Crude Oil Review and Forecast API Actual: 9.047M API Consensus: 1.467M EIA Crude Import Actual 0.259M EIA Crude Import Previous: -0.385M EIA Crude stock Actual: 8.701M EIA Crude stock consensus: 1.160M As Saudi Oil production had shrunk to nine million barrels per day in July since its last OPEC meeting with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening global demand in slowing economy, Saudi, the largest oil supplier in the world had expressed its opinion on keeping the production to remain low until the end of this year. As foreseen through such decisions from the major suppliers, the most recent Crude inventory within the states has turned out to be way larger than expected. Since September of 2023, the Crude oil future TVC:USOIL plunged by $-22.35 (-23.62%) to $72.28 per barrel during the last week trading session. Slower than expected recovery in economic activities(PPI Nov 2023) adding fear of the constant weakening of the oil demand, forecasting a skeptical view towards a short term recovery of the oil demand and its price as well. The key major resistances are as follow: Top: $77.8 Mid: $75.5 Low: $72.12 The weekly upside trend is still the last hope for the Bullish traders. Once both the Four-hours and the daily candles closes below the $64-60 zone, we will then be able to finalize on such ambiguous consensus. With OPEC+ meeting pushed back to this weekends, every commodity investors focus is on the meeting report, hoping for the decision to give them the better foresight of the future of the market. The Best Futures Trading Hours in Crude: CL opens for trading on the floor, called the pit session at 9AM EST European trading closes at 11:30 AM EST The best hours for trading are the most liquid, between 9:00AM and 11:30AM Pit session closes at 2:30PM EST, when floor trading stops for the day Therefore, the best trading in the afternoon is the last hour between 1:30PM to 2:30PM EST
TVC:USOILShort
by Kim_CLSPX
EPM Evolution Petroleum Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SEPM Evolution Petroleum Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 12.50usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $0.12. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:EPMLong
by TopgOptions
US Oil - Last downward leg- Pt.2- About to become impulsive?Hello traders, in our previous posts about oil we highlighted how we expect cycle wave 2 to complete around the 57-63 area with the final C wave of the corrective structure. We then showed how we applied leading indicators to obtain confirmation of more downside: . We entered at the golden zone (61.8%fibo) strong volume rejection. We are short from @78.18 aiming to ride the microcount outlined in the chart. Stop loss on entry as per the update in previous post. Cheers GMR
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by GMR-Capital
CHEVRON The road to recovery is set but will have its bumpsThe Chevron Corporation (CVX) has been pulling back since the November 15 rejection and is already below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) headed towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As you see the stock has been trading on a Fibonacci Channel since the October 29 2020 bottom and its last two Higher Lows (July 14, September 28) found Support on or around the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). Remarkably, we last saw the very same Fibonacci Channel during the 2010/11/12 period (chart on the right). The RSI sequences on the 1W time-frame of the two periods are identical and it appears that we are currently headed for the Higher Low (green circle on the RSI) before testing the overhead Resistance Zone (red). If the 2010/11/12 sequence continues to get repeated, then we should expect another two Resistance rejections and pull-backs before we convincingly break to a significantly Higher High. That pattern shows that Chevron is in recovery mode already but the road will has its bumps along the way but we can take advantage of them by buying low and selling high. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:CVX
by TradingShot
1
EXXON MOBIL Close to huge bullish break-out but watch this levelThe Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has made new All Time Highs (ATH) this month, being on a massive +37% rally since the September 26 low and bounce on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on a similar 1D RSI occurrence, it would appears that the price is currently starting a pull-back similar to November 10 - December 20 2021, which hit the 1D MA200 and as it has always done since December 2020, it rebounded strongly. This pull-back will be confirmed if the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. Until then, with Exxon exactly at the top of the Channel that started after the 2020 Double Bottom, a break above the Higher Highs trend-line, would start a huge bullish break-out towards the 1.786 Fibonacci extension ($125.00) and potentially the 2.5 Fib ($143.00). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:XOM
by TradingShot
3
Oil Maintains the $90'sOil topped out around $94 after breaking through our target at $92.03. We made a concerted effort for our next target at $95.24, but fell short just below $94. This was a high from the last attempt in early October, and may constitute a double top. We are not seeing a serious retracement, and are still holding the $90's. In order to press higher, we must break through $94 definitively. If support in the $90's does not hold, then $87.21 will likely be a floor price for now.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Regains the $90'sAs we have been predicting for a while, oil has broken out into the $90's. There are only so many reserves that Biden can deplete in a frenetic attempt to improve his tarnished image before midterms. We have smashed through $90.06, which provided strong resistance and was a barrier for some time. We are currently testing $92.03 which was the exact target we predicted last week. Red triangles on the KRI are confirming resistance here. If we see a retracement we will find support at $90.06 again, or $88.74. Our next target is $95.24.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Facing Resistance at $90Oil has edged higher towards the $90's. We still haven't quite been able to break that threshold just yet, with a rejection just now at the time of this writing just below our level at $90.06. We are seeing red triangles on the KRI at this level. The Kovach OBV has picked up, so we will see if momentum can break us into the $90's, but so far $90.06 is a barrier. If we can break through, then the next target is $92.03. If we retrace, then we should have support again from $85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Oil Heads Toward the $90'sOil finally broke out, which was somewhat of an inevitability as the price was consolidating for almost a week. We saw a triangle corrective pattern in the mid/low $80's, with prices stubbornly refusing to move as the rest of the markets have made great strides. Finally, we were able to break out and our analysis was on-point. Sure enough, $88.74 acted as a barrier to $90.06 with resistance kicking in, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Weakness in the US dollar surely had something to do with this. The Kovach OBV has soared suggesting there is genuine momentum behind this move. If so, we can expect to test $90.06 soon. If not, then we should see support at $85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Can Oil Break Out Again?Oil has continued its corrective pattern as we have fallen from the $90's, back deep into the mid $80's. The corrective impulse took us back to $85.55, which dedicated readers will remember is a strong support level. We have seen green triangles on the KRI to confirm support every time this level has been tested. The Kovach OBV has flattened, suggesting we will need another strong burst of momentum before we are able to press higher. If so, $88.74 is the next immediate target which we will need to break before $90.06, the barrier to the $90's. If we retrace further the next target from below is $84.75.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Oil Establishes a RangeOil has been maintaining the range between $85.55 and $90.06. We anticipated a dip to $85.55 and support there, which was validated with this dip. However, oil appears to be continuing a sideways corrective pattern, as it establishes value just below the $90's. We anticipate higher oil prices, as no fundamentals indicate otherwise for now. But we must first break through $90.06 before attempting $92.03, the next target. If we retrace, we expect $85.55 to hold.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy