Another leg up for crude oil? To answer this question, we need to look at the following:
1) US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is currently at its lowest level since 1984, while the absolute level is worrisome, the speed of the drawdown on the reserve over the past year is more concerning. In an effort to combat rising prices and possibly secure the midterm elections, President Biden has continually announced release from the reserve, depleting close to a third of the reserve since the start of 2022. If and when this extra supply is cut off, oil prices will likely head higher.
2) OPEC Production Cuts
With the OPEC announcement to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, the world is yet under more energy supply stress. While the cut is only about 2% of global supply, it does signify a shift in stance from OPEC, clashing with the West as the US condemns OPEC’s actions. With the next OPEC+ meeting taking place in December, we will closely monitor if further production tightening continues.
3) Crude Oil and DXY
As Crude Oil is quoted in USD, the dollar’s performance has a great impact on oil prices. The chart above shows the dollar (inverted) against Crude Oil. The 2 generally move together, up until the start of 2022, when dollar strengthened significantly alongside oil. As this relationship stretches further away from the normal, we fear a ‘snap’ may occur should a pivot in the Fed’s policies occur. That would greatly weaken the USD, and push oil prices significantly higher.
4) China’s turn
With China still essentially closed from the rest of the world, any shift towards opening the Chinese economy could awaken the world’s 2nd largest consumer of oil.
Looking at the Crude Oil Chart, we see a continued uptrend since the negative oil prices fiasco in May 2022. With a stalled attempt to break lower in September, and prices now back in line with the uptrend, we could potentially see higher oil prices from here.
We also note the 90$ handle as a significant level, where 2 previous attempts to break past were rejected. But with a clear and decisive break past the 90$ mark, are the bulls in control now?
In our opinion, crude oil is like the stone on a slingshot, stretched further and further back by multiple macro factors. If any were to snap, oil could be slingshot higher…
Entry at 92.25, stops at 85. Target at 100.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify any trading set-ups in real-time and react accordingly. To find out more, visit www.tradingview.com under the CME Group exchange to view the real-time data plans available.
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Petroleum
OPEC Lifts OilOil has dipped into the $70's again, but has regained the $80's following reports that OPEC will cut production . We blasted through lower levels in the $80's, and are currently retesting $83.21, with a red triangle on the KRI confirming resistance. If momentum continues, we have several more levels to cross before our target of $85.55. Depending on how much OPEC cuts, this could drive prices back to the $100's again in the longer term. Expect support at the base of the $80 handle if we reject current levels.
Will the $80's Hold for Oil?Oil has weakened with the price action rounding off at $83.21. We are currently seeing support at the base of the $80 handle with the level at $80.00 holding strong for now. We have several green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV has dipped with the selloff, and we will need more momentum to come through in order to establish higher levels. If we break down further, then $78.90 or $77.56 are the next levels where we can anticipate support.
$OXYDefinitely in phase 3 - distribution. Could create a triple top but I'd be careful with energies after this rally. I'm going to short below the volume shelf and below 50 MA (red). Today we might have a bounce.
The Two Main Factors Effecting Oil PricesOil saw support at $85.55, confirmed by many green triangles on the KRI. As anticipated, we saw a nice pivot there, bouncing back just below $90. We are currently testing $88.74, but a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Recession fears, bolstered by the non farm payrolls headline miss, will likely weigh on the price, however supply side shortages will likely keep prices above $85.55 for now. Our level at $90.06 is likely to be a ceiling for the time being.
Oil Hits our TargetOil has tumbled, giving up the $90's entirely, and plummetting deeper into the $80's. We have breached $90.06, and several levels after that in the upper $80's. In particular, $87.21, our target from yesterday, was hit exactly (to the tick) and is currently providing support confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. If we plummet further, our next target is $85.55. If we can manage to pivot, we should be able to test the $90's again, with $90.06 to provide resistance.
Recession Fears Slam OilOil plummeted off recession fears , rejecting the mid $90's. Technically we are already in a recession (by multiple metrics) but our puppet masters would like us to think otherwise, constantly chasing hope like a carrot on a fishing pole. We slammed past multiple levels in the $90's, giving up the $90 handle entirely. We are currently testing $88.74, with the next level down being $87.21. If we can test higher levels, then the $90's will provide a barrier, in particular at $90.06. A relative low at $85.55 should serve as our anticipated floor price for now.
US Digs into Oil ReservesOil has made a run for higher levels, testing the next level above $95.24 at $96.88. US oil reserves are at lows not seen since 1984 , as the Biden administration hastily digs into reserves to frantically buoy prices before midterms. Nevertheless, we are still trekking closer to the $100 mark. If we are able to break through $96.88 then $100 is the next target. We should have some resistance there. If things turn south, then $92.03, or $90.06 are candidates for a floor price for now.
Oil Stalls in the $90'sOil saw strong resistance at $95.24, the relative high we called out yesterday. After testing and rejecting this level we saw a brief ratracement, finding immediate support at $92.03, the next level down, as we anticipated. We should see further support from $90.06, the base of the $90 handle. If prices pick up, we must solidly break $95.24 and $96.88 before we can attempt $100 again.
Can Oil Test $100 Again?Oil has rebounded into the $90's after establishing a solid value area in the high $80's. It seemed like prices were finally coming down, when we saw a nice spike back to the $90's, reestablishing value above $92.03. We are currently testing $95.24, but a red triangle on the KRI may indicate that we are running into resistance. If we can break through then the next target is $96.88. After that, we are clear to attempt the $100's again. If we reject current levels, we should see support at the base of the $90 handle.
Oil Struggles to Recover $90Oil seems to have bottomed out at $85.55. We saw good support from green triangles on the KRI, and a subsequent pivot back to the high $80's. We are now just below $90, with $90.06 in particular being the level to break before attaining higher levels. We should see significant resistance there. The Kovach OBV is bearish and keeps pressing lower. If we fail to test the $90's, then $85.55 should provide support, with the next support levels below including $84.75 and $83.76.
Oil Regains the Mid-$90'sOil has finally broken out, solidly reestablishing the $90's after spending a few days in the high $80's. We are still bound by $95.24, which has been our target and area of anticipated resistance since oil was in the $87's. We are seeing some red triangles on the KRI confirming strong resistance here. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but it remains to be seen if we have enough strength to punch through the mid $90's and head back to the $100's. If we are able to break through $95.24, then $96.88 is the last level we must break before the $100's. If so, we should face resistance at $100 and $101.
New Lows for Oil?Oil has bottomed out just about our level at 87.21. We have broken through levels in the 90's, giving up that handle completely. The Kovach OBV is very bearish, confirming the momentum from the selloff. If things pick up, 90.06, which once provided support, will now provide resistance, and is our next target. If the bear momentum continues, then 85.55 and 84.75 are our next targets from below.
Gasoline almost back to pre-war levelsGasoline in the US has been trending lower and lower, now down 30% from its ATH. It hasn't filled the breakaway gap yet, but I think it will do so in the next few weeks, and that could be an excellent opportunity to go long in the short term.
Oil has filled the gaps and chopped at support for a while but is looking weak. What is strange is how supply is limited, the spot market is strong... yet the paper market (futures, etc.) is invalid. Maybe the weakness is due to broadly slowing growth and economic activity, though I am not sure the REAL recession is here yet. The energy crisis isn't over, especially not in Europe... and this could get worse before they get better.
Most issues remain the same, and there is very little progress. There are no new refineries; few nuclear plants are active again, Russia is still limiting gas flows to Europe, sanctions make oil flows harder, and OPEC+ cannot increase capacity fast. Our energy needs constantly grow, yet our production has plateaued. Very little can be done now to ease our problems, and our problems will become even worse if the SPR is drained and the US stops supplying the world with oil from its reserves. Most solutions require time, and politically many of these are not welcome by the green movement. Essentially, we have energy producers and green activists colluding to increase energy prices so that the first make more money and the second to make themselves feel good while simultaneously destroying people's lives and the environment.
I believe crude oil could get down to 75$ and even 55$ in the short term but ultimately will go much higher once the Fed and other central banks are forced to cut rates and print money. It's all about managing your positions until we get to that point, as a big recession could cause oil and gas prices to tank. Oil and gasoline prices rose so fast that it is almost impossible for such a move not to cause a recession and consequently demand destruction.
If we look at Gasoline prices in terms of other fiat currencies, we can see that they went 70% higher than their 2008 peak, which is a lot. I multiplied the RBOB with DXY to get a better picture of the actual cost of gas for everyone outside the US, as the US is less than 25% of the global economy. That means that for almost 90% of the population and 75% of the worldwide economy, gasoline costs 70% more than in 2008. This will have tremendous consequences, especially given the rate at which prices increase.
In conclusion, although I don't think prices have bottomed, and we could see a sharp decline in the next few months, I believe gasoline and oil prices will go much higher, and dips are for buying.
Can Oil Regain the $100's?Oil made an attempt at higher levels, hitting both of our targets at $100 then $101 before retracing back to the $90's. The Kovach OBV is gradually trending upward, so we are seeing a bull bias. But the $100's seem to be a hard upper bound for now. Currently, we are seeing good support around $95.24, a familiar level. We may also be seeing a bull wedge forming. Together, this suggests we may be making another attempt at higher levels. We will need to clear $100 and $101 before considering higher levels, the next target being $106. If we retrace further, then $92.03, and $90.06 should provide support.
OXY Occidental Petroleum Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the OXY Occidental Petroleum options chain, i would buy the $75 calls with
2022-10-21 expiration date for about
$3.10 premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Oil Hits Our Target of $100Oil has picked up again, breaking through $100, but finding resistance at $101. This is exactly what we anticipated, it just took a few days for oil to break through the resistance in the mid $90's. Our next target is $106, but it will take some momentum to get there. It is likely that we will hover in the low $100's to establish value. If we retrace, we will have strong support from $95.24.
Oil Still Bound by $100Oil rallied slightly, but is still maintaining the $90 handle. We shot up from support at $95.24, but fell short just below the target of $100, hovering around $99 at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is drifting up, suggesting a bull bias that could result in a breakout soon. If so, $100 and $101 are the targets. Watch for resistance here, and a possible retracement back to $95.24, with $92.03 an anticipated floor for now.
Will Oil Test $100 Again??Oil has edged back down to support after topping out at $100, a strong psychological and technical level. As predicted here, we are finding support at our technical level of $95.24, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. Support is looking weak, and we could break down further. The next level below and target for support is $92.03. After that we could test the base of the $90 handle at $90.06. If we pivot off current levels we could make a run for $100 again.
Oil Hovers Under $100Oil has edged upward, but is meeting lots of resistance in the high $90's, just below the target of $100. We edged past $100 briefly, only to retrace back to comfort at the base of the $99 handle at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is trending up, but appears weak, suggesting we will need more momentum to break through $100 definitively. Many red triangles on the KRI are signalling resistance here, so anticipate a rejection back to $95.24, or even $92.03. If we are able to break through the low $100's there is a vacuum zone to the next target of $106.
Oil Gives Up the $100'sOil appears to have bottomed out at our exact level of $92.03, with a wick extending to $90.06 as we predicted last Friday. We were then able to pivot back up to the mid $90's, meeting swift resistance at $96.88. We have several red triangles on the KRI signifying resistance around this price area, just before $100. Sub $100 prices will surely be welcome to consumers world wide, after soaring oil prices have hit relative highs in the $100's just a few months back. The Kovach OBV has bottomed out, which suggests that we will need strong momentum to come through to break current resistance. if so, $100 and $101 are the next targets. Othwerwise, we can expect to test $92.03 and $90.06 again.
Oil Digs into the Lower $90'sOil dipped down further into the $90's, with a wick touching $92.03, as we have noted in these reports as the next level of support. We do appear to be pivoting nicely back to $95.24, but are bounded by $96.88. The Kovach OBV appears bearish, but does seem to have bottomed out, suggesting potentially that oil has reached a floor. If so, we expect it to shoot back up to the $100's. If not, we could retest $92.03. The next level after that is $90.06, which is our last technical level at the base of the $90 handle, before we dig into the $80's.
🚨 Oil Tests the $90's; Read More for our Trading Idea 🚨Oil caved through support at the base of the $100's, making its way down to $95.24. We expected this value to hold as a floor price, as discussed yesterday, and we just barely broke through, with a low just above our level at $92.03. We immediately equilibrated back to $95.24, and are currently testing the next level above at $96.88. A red triangle on the KRI confirms resistance here. We appear to be forming a small inverse head and shoulders pattern, suggesting a strong possibility that we will correct back to the $100's. A long position here in futures, or oil related stocks such as XOM or ETF's may be profitable. A stop loss at $95.24 with a profit target set conservatively at $100 may provide a 2:1 return on risk.
