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Petroleum

Another Breakout in Sight for Oil??Oil has gotten support from just above $116, which we anticipated to hold as a lower bound. It hit our target of $122 before a technical retracement brought us back to lower levels. We knew this would only be transient and sure enough, oil is back to relative highs, just a few ticks below our level at $122.95. The Kovach OBV is still strong, so there is no reason to expect a retracement past $116. We may play the range a bit, so watch $122.95 for resistance. If we are able to break it the next level is $126.50.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Extremely BullishWe have been reporting on the bullishness of oil, and called the bull wedge breakout from $120 to $122 perfectly. It was able to break out from this level perfectly, and has reached $122.95, our target level, to the tick before retracing just above $120, where it is currently finding support. After the breakout it is likely to range at currently levels, between $120 and $122.95, but we have nothing fundamental to suggest anything other than a purely technical retracement, if that. If so, we should find strong support at $116. Otherwise, $126.50 is the next target if we can break out again.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Hits Our Target!! 🥳 What's Next?? 🚀Oil has broken out from the bull wedge it was forming all this week. We have broken past the upper bound at $120 and have hit our target at $122.95 to the tick. We met immediate resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI before retracing a bit, but the Kovach OBV seems strong so we do not expect much in the way of a retracement. If we do, $116 should provide support. It is likely we will see some consolidation here, but if we are able to break out from this high at $122.95, our next target is $126.50.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Bull Wedge in OilOil is tending to highs, forming a bull wedge pattern. The Kovach OBV has slumped a bit, suggesting a slight bear divergence. We are facing some resistance at $120, the upper bound of the wedge pattern. If we break out, we are set to hit $122, relative highs, and are clear to press higher after that. If we do retrace, then $116 should provide support, then there is a vacuum zone down to $113. While oil may continue the range between $116 and $120 for now, there is nothing fundamentally that leads us to believe we can expect lower prices any time soon.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Steadfast Near HighsOil remains at highs, after curbs on China Covid lockdowns have eased . Supply remains tight as OPEC is reluctant to increase oil production. Although they have agreed to boost production, which should help buffer skyrocketing costs per barrel, Saudi Arabian oil prices have continued to increase . We do appear to be seeing a bull wedge or triangle forming at highs which suggests that we may be mounting for another breakout. This would surely meet our next target of $122, and likely establish new relative highs for oil. If we retrace, we should find support at $116, then $113, and $111.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
No Love at the PumpsOil has picked up, testing relative highs. We seem to be having trouble reestablishing the $120's, with $119 being the upper bound for now. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but does not seem sufficient to indicate a significant rally to hit relative highs at $122. In fact, we are looking a bit top heavy so anticipate a retracement back to support at $116, $113, or $111. Any retracement should be considered purely technical and we have no reason to believe that oil will give up the $100's any time soon. Our next target is $122 if momentum reignites.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
2
Oil ReboundsOil has pivoted from $111, smashing through $113, and hitting our target of $116. We are showing definite signs of strength as there really are not any fundamental factors that could indicate otherwise, however we do seem to be having issues reclaiming the high at $122. If we are able to break past $116 solidly, this is our next target. Otherwise expect support from $113, $111, and $108. The Kovach OBV has been somewhat oscillatory, so we anticipate levels to hold and the price action to range at current levels.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
The situation with oil is getting worse and worse...Up until a few days ago I believed oil had a chance of getting back down to 75-95$. It can still get all the way down there, but for the price to get there it would need traditional markets to crash badly. The current production is too low, the underinvestment in production is massive and the oil industry isn't incentivized to drill for new wells. At the same time the problem is getting larger and larger as there aren't enough refineries that can use oil to create other products like gasoline, and many of these refineries can't just take any type of oil and use it to produce stuff. OPEC+ has been consistently missing its targets and is unable to increase production, oil released from the SPR isn't able to alleviate these issues, while a significant supply is lost from Russia, Syria, Libya, Iran and Venezuela due to sanctions, wars or other issues. The recent announcement from the EU that there will an oil embargo just makes the situation worse, while at the same time tensions are getting worse and worse as 1 Iranian oil tanker was 'seized' by the US in Greece, and 2 Greek oil tankers were 'seized' by Iran. The more oil output that is lost, the worse the situation is getting, despite the fact that we already have significant demand destruction. If oil stayed around 110 while China had big parts of its population under strict lockdown, what is going to happen as it slowly re-opens? At some point things are going to get very ugly and the high oil prices are going to damage the global economy beyond repair, something that will force oil prices to come down. In some of my previous analysis I did mention some of the potential targets for oil, which could be at 200-300$, but for now the key target remains the 2008 ATH at 140-150$. In my opinion the market will take some time to break that level, but the financial melt down won't come until it gets around 250$. If we take inflation into account, the price of the dollar, as well as the growth of money supply and that of the global stock market capitalization, the 150$ peak in 2008 is now close to 200-250$, however the 150$ peak has psychological significance. As oil is now cheaper than back in 2008-2011, as the market has closed above the 2011 highs and as the structure is very bullish across all contracts is very bullish, the price of oil could go much much higher from here. Gasoline making new ATHs and has turned the 2008 ATHs into support. December contract formed an SFP but not that bearish. The average price of the next five months had a very strong close and there is nothing really bearish to see. Hence my first target for now is 145$, the second target after some consolidation below 145$ is 195$, and the final one where I'd start exiting and potentially shorting oil would be 245$.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BitcoinMacro
Oil Rally Lets off the GasOil has retraced a bit, after a fresh burst of momentum took us past 116. We appeared to be gunning for 122, but lost momentum in the middle of the vacuum zone, with several red triangles on the KRI suggesting that the rally was encountering resistance in this area. Subsequently, we smashed through 116, finding support just above 113. Currently, we are meeting resistance from 116. We are still bullish of oil, but it may range around these relative highs before momentum reignites.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Rallies Off Russian Oil BanOil has rallied significantly off news that the EU is planning to ban Russian imports of oil , despite the fact that Russia supplies 27% of the EU's oil and 40% of its gas. Crude oil prices soared off this news and we were able to smash through a relative high at $116. This was our target from earlier. Recall that last week, we noted oil's relative strength and set a target at $116. It is difficult to find justification for a signficant retracement, but a technical pull back should find support at $116 or $113. Our next target is $122, which would be signficant as this is a relative high.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Returns to Relative HighsOil has continued its rally, breaking through our level at $111 with ease. It is currently facing resistance in the middle of the vacuum zone between $111 and $116. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the rally, but has since leveled off. We have few fundamental reasons why we should see lower oil prices, however if we do retrace, we should have support at $111, $108, then $106 in the event of a retracement. Otherwise, $116 remains our target, then $122.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Economic Outlook on OilOil has been ranging in between $108 and $113, with consistent resistance at $111, which we have added as a new technical level. The value area has consolidated immensely, which suggests that we may be preparing for a breakout. There is no fundamental reason yet why we should see significantly lower oil prices, though China's renewed Covid lock downs weigh on demand. We anticipate strong support from $108 and $106, with $100 an absolute floor. If we can break past $113, our next target is $116.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Tests Relative HighsOil has extended gains, breaking through $106 and currently testing $108. We appear to be feeling out the range between $100 and $108, but there is a bull bias, and the Kovach OBV has picked up notably. If we are able to continue the rally, there is a vacuum zone to $111. We do appear to be facing resistance at the moment, confirmed by some red triangles on the KRI, so beware of a potential retracement, which should find support at $106, but may cross the vacuum zone again down to $101 or $100. The $100's should hold, but if not $95.24 has proven to be reliable floor price.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Breaks HigherOil has been edging up, first breaking through $106, then $108. The latter has consistently been an upper bound for oil, but just yesterday it was finally able to crack this level. We broke out but topped off at $111 or so, just under our next target at $113. We are registering resistance confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV appears very strong, and oil seems to be holding its ground above $108, which should provide support. If not, we have $106 just below, then there is a vacuum zone down to $101. There is no reason to expect that we won't hold the $100's. Another burst of momentum could take us back to $113, then relative highs at $116.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Can the Oil Rally Sustain??As discussed yesterday, oil formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern (with a slanted neck line) and broke out to higher levels, hitting our exact profit target of $106, where we are currently meeting resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but $106 is likely to be a barrier for now. Anticipate oil to range between $101 and $106 for now. If it breaks higher, $113 should be a ceiling for now. If we reject the $100's as we did earlier this week, then $95.24 should be a floor price.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
2