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Petroleum

Oil Stabilizes in the $100'sOil has broken through resistance in the low 100's including 100 and 101, but momentum has fizzled before reaching our next target of 106. It appears that we are feeling out the price territory between 101 and 106, a fairly vast vacuum zone. Watch for oil to remain range bound between 101 and 106 as it establishes value here. If strong buying or selling comes through, then we should have support below from 100 and 101, but if that does not hold, then 95.24 is a very strong level and relative low. We anticipate 92.03 to be a floor price. If we can break through 106, then 113 is our next target.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Will We See Lower Oil Prices??Oil is hugging lows after Biden has announced that he will start to use US oil reserves and also considered adding more ethanol to gasoline to fight soaring costs. Crude promptly dropped from where it was meandering in the 106-113 range. We are still finding strong support at 101 and 100, which are strong technical and psychological levels. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish but has since flatlined. We will not be able to crack through these levels unless more momentum comes through. If it picks up, then 106 and 113 are the next targets which must be broken again before we can consider highs then our next target of 132.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Still StrongOil has hit our profit target of $116 to the tick, then retraced past our newly identified support level of $113. Currently, it is meandering in the wide vacuum zone between this upper bound and $106. We should see support from $106, but if not, there is no reason to believe that oil will give up the $100's any time soon. The level $116 seems to be providing steep resistance and this is the level we must break before considering higher levels. The Kovach OBV is lackluster despite the recent action, so it could go either way, but there is no fundamental reason to anticipate lower oil prices any time soon.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Regains $100Oil has gotten a lift from the mid $90's back to the $100's. We were able to break through $101, and are currently ranging in the vacuum zone between $101 and $106. The Kovach OBV has picked up slightly as oil has gained momentum. It is likely that most of the geopolitical factors are priced in, so we might not see an aggressive rally back to highs, but a gradual progression is likely. We should see support from the base of the $100 handle, but if not, then we could retrace all the way back to $95. Our next target is $106, then there is a vast vacuum zone to $116.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Tests $100 AgainOil has continued its decline but the bleeding seems to have stopped for now as we have found support in the mid 95's. We have found support at $95.24 as confirmed by multiple green triangles on the KRI. Subsequently we have lifted to $100 which seems to be providing resistance at this point. The Kovach OBV is still bearish but does seem to be leveling off. If we are able to recover then $106 is our next target, otherwise we should find support again at $95.24. Watch out for the vacuum zone to $92.03.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Retraces, but Finds SupportCrude has dropped to $106, but is holding strong at this level. News of the potential for peace in Ukraine has already lifted stocks this morning, and will put further pressure on oil which has already retraced from highs nearing our target at $132. The Kovach OBV has slid quite a bit, suggesting a bear divergence. We will see if the $100's hold as exuberance over the Russia/Ukraine war deliquesces into the oil market. Watch $101 and $100. If those do not hold, we have a vacuum zone down to $96.88. If we somehow catch a bid then $116 is the next target and we are likely to see resistance there.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
1
Oil Retraces But Fundamentals are Still BullishOil has topped out just below our profit target of 132. Subsequently, it retraced to the 120's, currently finding support at 120 exactly which might be a new technical level forming. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but does appear to be arching over slightly. The US has committed to banning Russian oil imports, which will not ease the soaring price of oil, unless Biden can find alternative sources. It is likely we will feel out current levels, before testing highs again. We should have support from 116 then 110. The next target is 132.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Still Incredibly StrongOil has blasted through our profit target of $122. It seems that we have to update our profit targets for oil on a daily basis. After it smashed $122, a wick made it as high as $130 before retracing. It then fell to $116, where a green triangle on the KRI confirmed support. Currently, we are seeing perhaps a bull wedge forming with an upper bound at $122. If we see more momentum come through, then $132 is our next target. With the West in the process of banning Russian oil imports, we have no reason to believe prices will drop, however $110 and $106 are the next levels below to provide support.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
2
Dragon Head Pattern in Oil!! #OOTTOil has topped out at $116, before retracing to $106. This is 1000 tick spread which is formidable, even for oil. But that is to be expected with this rally of historic proportions. We appear to be forming a possible dragon head pattern, and are currently exhibiting volatility between $106, and $110. The Kovach OBV has been meteoric lately, but has since arched over with the pull back. we don't have any reason to expect much of a retracement, but there is a vacuum zone below to $100. We must first break $116 before considering our next profit target of $122.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Prices Soar, Next Target?? #OOTTOil has continued its tremendous ascent. We are well into the $100 handle at this point, with little in the way to suggest that it may turn back. We did see some resistance at our intermediary target of $110, but a strong burst of momentum smashed through this target and hit our next profit target of $116.61 to the tick. The next profit target is at $122, which brings us closer to all time highs at $147, which we last saw in 2008. The Kovach OBV is still very strong, without even the slightest hint of leveling off. However, at some point a technical retracement is to be expected, and if so, $110 or $106 should provide support.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
2
Oil Soars Past $100, Next Targets?? #OOTTOil has soared and smashed through even our most aggressive profit targets. We smashed through 106, then hit 110, before finally coming up for air. A brief retracement appears to be finding support just above 106, so it does not appear that the rally is over, or even showing signs of pause. The Kovach OBV is extremely strong right now, as one would expect, but it has not showed teh slightest intent on leveling off, so it would be FOMO to buy at these highs. Our next target, set from Fibonacci Extension Levels is 116. We have created a giant vacuum zone below, so watch out if 106 does not hold. The next target below is 101.46, then 100.00. After that, we will surely find support in the 90's, but we aren't likely to see such low prices for now.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Dips Sharply, Will it Find Support??Oil has retraced sharply from highs. After rejecting 95.24, we smashed through the 90 handle entirely, testing 88.77, where we appeared to find support as confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. However, another selloff took us past this level to the next level of support at 87.21. We do appear to be finding support at this level at present, but if not, the next level down is 85.55. This still seems to be a reasonable technical retracement in the overall bull trend, but the Kovach OBV has started to tick downward with the selloff. If we can find support at current levels, then the 90's should provide resistance. But after 92.03 there is a vacuum zone back to 95.24, so momentum could have us return to this relative high quickly.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Attempts to Reclaim the $90'sOil has dipped sharply, as we anticipated yesterday. We have tested 95.24 several times, but red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance at every attempt. Subsequently, a strong selloff took oil prices back to support at 88.74, the exact level we called out in our reports yesterday. Also, as we anticipated, we are seeing support here, with an attempt to regain the 90's. We are currently finding support just below our level at 90.06. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting that we may be in a sideways corrective pattern between 88.74 and 95.21. If so, we anticipate prices to pick up and solidify the 90's again. If not, we will have further support from 87.21 and 85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Retraces from HighsOil has retraced sharply from highs at 95.24. A red triangle on the KRI has confirmed prohibitive resistance and we have sharply retraced, initially finding support at the next level below at 92.03. From here, we made a run for the next level below at 90.06, but have found support just above it. We have currently made an attempt to break past 92.03 again, but momentum appears to be waning. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, but we could be encountering overbought conditions. If so, anticipate a sideways correction around current levels, or a retracement down to 90.06 or 88.74. If momentum picks up, we will need to break 95.24 before we can achieve the next target of 96.88.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Topping for nowPrice has flipped many times in the past at this price. Price is extended to the upside. Momentum has been diverging for the last 8 months. OPEC+ has reaffirmed their stance to increase production. Saudi Arabia and other countries production hasn't even been turned back on yet so they can increase it even more if need be. Global demand and consumer demand is actually falling, this can be seen by China's economy contracting so prevalently. It's still winter and a correction is warranted. Maybe by May or so, we go back up again and could go to crazy heights if things don't get better with inflation.
TVC:UKOILShort
by MonetaryRebel
Oil Hits Our Next Profit Target!!Oil has reached our target of 95.24, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance, followed by a retracement. We are seeing good support at 92.03, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still very bullish, with the brief retracement failing to budge it. Thus we have no indication of a reversal any time soon, and are still bullish of oil. It does appear to be looking top heavy, so we can expect a retracement soon, with 90.06 the first candidate for support below. Our next target is 96.88, when momentum resumes.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Sideways Correction in Oil, with Bull BiasOil has retraced from the 90's to 88.74, as we anticipated in our reports. We are extending the sideways correction that started forming after we rejected relative highs in the 92's, currently inching up above 90.00, just barely. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but has started to level off as oil ranges. There isn't much data to support a further correction, especially after the IEA has stated that the market is 'tight' but if we selloff further, we should see support at 85.55. If we see more momentum for a bull run, then 92.03 must be broken once more before we can consider another new relative high.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Finds SupportOil has found support at 88.74, and prices did not last in the high 80's for long. We saw an immediate pivot from this level and have solidified the 90's once again, breaking through 90'06, our next technical level, with ease. We should see some ranging from here between 90.06 or 88.74 and highs or our next target of 92.03. The Kovach OBV is still very strong, but we anticipate some further sideways correction before new relative highs. No data suggests any doubt to the overall strength of this bull rally.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy