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Petroleum

Oil Rallies, Smashing our Profit Targets!!Oil has rallied significantly, smashing through our target of 90.06, and solidifying the 90 handle. We are within inches of our next target at 92.03, with a red triangle on the KRI confirming some resistance just below it. The Kovach OBV is ripping with this rally, demonstrating the incredible strength of this rally. Our next target of 95.24 is garnered from Fibonacci extension levels, because we have simply run out of technical levels at this point and are in new territory as far as our analysis with the product. We are well on our way to $100 oil, a price range we maintain will be hit by Q2.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
$100 Oil By Summer?? 😱Oil is ranging in a sideways correction bounded from above by our target and highs of 88.74, and below by 87.21. We have seen support from this latter level as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI, and a subsequent pivot back to attempt highs again. Currently, we are within inches of the high at 88.74, and the Kovach OBV has picked up notably. If we are able to break through, then 90.06 is the next target. If we are able to break out of this range, then $90 oil seems a reasonable target, as we have every reason to anticipate it will hit $100 by the summer.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
1
Oil Tops OutOil has topped off just below our target at 88.74. We appear to be equilibrating in a sideways correction about 87.21. It looks like we are establishing a floor just above 86, in the vacuum zone between 85.55, and 87.21. Volatility has consolidated considerably, so anticipate a breakout either way. We could make another run for 88.74. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but has started to arc downwards with the ambivalence. This might signal a further correction and if so, watch for support at 85.55, then 84.75.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Sells Off, Hits Our TargetsOil has finally taken a breather off profit taking and a build in US oil inventories. A wick topped out at our target at 87.21 and we sold off sharply from there, smashing through several levels in the 84 and 83 handle, where we finally found support at 83.21, the exact level we noted in yesterday's report. We appear to be recovering nicely, attempting to establish value around 83.76. The Kovach OBV has registered the selloff, arching down sharply from its bull run over the past week. There is a vacuum zone below to 82.13, so if the selloff continues, this will be the first target. After that, we have 81.30 and 80.70 as the next targets for support. If we are able to reestablish momentum, then 84.75, and 85.55 are the next targets above.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Why we Won't See Lower Oil PricesOil has started to show signs of weakness at highs. We have smashed through to new relative highs coming just shy of our target of 87.21, where a red triangle on the KRI has confirmed a top. Currently we are forming a consolidation pattern, resembling a bull flag. We appear to be consolidating at 85.76, which was once our target. We are finding good support here, but in the event of a retracement, 84.75, 83.76, or 83.21 should hold. If another wave of momentum comes through, then 87.21 is the next target. The Kovach OBV is still strong, and there is nothing fundamental to go against this rally.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
2
Higher Highs in OilOil keeps edging out new relative highs. We have broken past resistance in the 83's and solidly established the 84's. Currently, we are testing 84.75, which was a target set from Fibonacci Extension levels. Our final target remains 85.55. If oil keeps up the bull trend, this should easily be solidified this week. New relative highs are closer together, suggesting that momentum may be running out and it might be time for a technical retracemnt. But there is nothing fundamental to suggest that the rally is letting up any time soon. If we do see a purely technical retracement, then we have levels in the 83's to provide support, then 82.13. If not, our next target is 85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil to Breakout Higher??Oil has made a run for relative highs again. It has reached our target of 83.21 again, and looks to be testing this level for another breakout. Our next target is 83.76, then 84.75. Watch for some resistance at 83.21, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but has dipped slightly as oil stutters at relative highs. It does seem poised for a breakout, but if we do see a retracement, 82.13 and 81.30 are the next levels below to provide support. If we don't breakout to higher levels today, then we anticipate support at the levels mentioned and for it to maintain a sideways correction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Testing HighsOil has strengthened on stronger demand prospects. We have hit our price target at 83.21, as we discussed yesterday. Two red triangles on the KRI suggest that this is an upper bound for now, but if the bull rally continues, we could easily break through to the next price target, which have gathered from Fibonacci Extension levels at 83.76. The Kovach OBV is still very strong, although it may be starting to level off. We are seeing strong support from 82.13, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI, but if we retrace further, we should see further support from 81.30, 80.70, and 80.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Recovers $80Oil has blasted up from support in the high 70 handle to attain $80 again. We have risen past resistance at 80.00, and have already broken through several levels of resistance in the 80 handle. Currently, we are hovering around 81.63, just above the nearest level at 81.30. We are holding a narrow range, which is understandable after breaking through to the 80's which have provided significant resistance thus far. If we retrace, then 80.00 should provide support, but we have several levels in the high 70's if this does not hold, with 77.56 being a floor for now. The next target is 83.21 if we catch another rally. The Kovach OBV barely dipped off the retracement to the 70's, and has regained full bull strength.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Solidifies Value just Under $80Oil has slid from the 80's, dipping all the way to our level at 77.56, before recovering. We have made a run for $80 again, falling just short of this level confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. We have felt out lows, at 77.56, and this might be the bottom of a new value area forming between 77.56 and 80.00. If so, expect oil to remain range-bound here. The Kovach OBV has gradually rescinded from highs, and has bottomed out, which may suggest a divergence with the current attempt at 80.00, another factor suggesting 80.00 is an upper bound for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Rejects $80 for nowOil has hit $80 again recently, but a red triangle on the KRI suggests that we have topped out at 80.70 for now. Since then, we have retraced to find support at 78.90. There is a vacuum zone after this level to the upper bound of the range we once held at 77.56. However, if 78.90 holds, then we could easily see highs again. It appears that oil may feel out its new price territory and establish value here. Watch for 80 as an upper bound, and 77.56 as a lower bound for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Back to $80!!Oil has blasted back to the 80's, one of the only asset classes in our reports that is showing some strong bull conviction. We rejected 78.90 and returned to the range that we were holding in the 77's briefly, before getting a boost back through 78.90, to claim the 80 handle once more. Currently, we are seeing the price potentially top out for now, with two red triangles on the KRI just below 80.70. The Kovach OBV has leveled off which suggests that we have reached a top for now. Anticipate some ranging or perhaps another retracement before another run for higher levels in the 80's with 81.30 the next target. If we retrace, 78.90 should be considered the floor for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Oil Maintains the RangeOil has trekked downward from its rally yesterday. The rally was paltry with respect to what oil has been able to muster with proper buying momentum. We are still largely in a broad sideways corrective phase. The level 72.99 appeared to be a top for oil, as we identified yesterday. Currently, we are stabilizing around support in roughly the middle of the range, at 71.00, a technical and psychological level. The Kovach OBV is still relatively flat, and has arched over with the selloff, which suggests that if we don't find support here, that we could test further levels on the downside, including 70.01 and 69.67. These levels have provided strong support in the past, and are the lower bound of this corrective phase. If we take these levels out, then 68.96 is the next level of strong support, the neckline of our inverse head and shoulders pattern, from which we originally broke out to higher levels in the 70's. If this neckline can't hold, then it's a very bearish sign, and we should easily be able to test lower levels in the mid 60's, like 66.00, a strong technical and psychological level and the low of our second shoulder.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Trends Lower, Rejecting Relative HighsOil has drifted further down, but has found support at 70.00, a psychological and technical level. We are finding some meager support here, and have started to drift back upwards. Oil is in a broad corrective phase from the rally we saw after the inverse head and shoulders breakout. The technicals are looking pretty stagnant for oil at the moment, with the Kovach OBV flat, and the Kovach Chande oscillatory. We should continue to see value form in the range between 68.96 (the neckline of our inverse H&S pattern) and relative highs at 72.99.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Oil??Oil is still feeling global demand woes and remains in the high 60 handle. We are seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 68.96. The second shoulder has yet to fully form so avoid trading this preemptively. If we break out, we could easily hit 72.99, a relative high. If we reject it, then this would be a bearish sign, and we could easily see lows of 62.80 again. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, and perhaps oversold. But is does appear to be letting up a bit, perhaps suggesting a relief rally may be in store soon.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Can OPEC Counter Oil's Decline??Oil has edged up as OPEC has pledged to compensate for demand woes. We are seeing resistance from 69.67, a relative high. Several red triangles on the KRI are popping up on the chart, indicating we are running into some resistance. The Kovach OBV is still bearish, to the point we are severely oversold, so a relief rally could easily take us 200 ticks higher, though 72.99, the next relative high, should provide significant resistance. From below, 62.80, the relative low, should be considered a min lower bound for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Global Demand Woes Impact OilOil is still very bearish but does appear to have settled for now, finding support at our level at 64.86. We have gotten a small boost here but are seeing some resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI just above 66.84. We are currently in roughly the midpoint of a range extending from 64.86 to 69.67. The Kovach OBV is extremely bearish, and starting to look over sold. But with global demand worries due to the new Omicron strain of the Coronavirus, we don't expect a rally any time soon. That being said we could see a relief rally potentially as high as the 70's, with 72.99 a particularly auspicious target.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
1
Two Factors Impacting Oil PricesOil has plummeted over continued issues on the supply and demand side. The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has impacted demand considerations as global governments consider yet another wave of lockdowns. We smashed through the 70 handle, but found support at 67.91. After a green triangle on the KRI confirmed support, oil was able to regain the 70 handle, and is currently hovering just below our level at 72.25. We do appear to be witnessing a bull wedge forming, but the Kovach OBV is still very bearish, despite the relief rally. This suggests that we aren't quite ready to see higher levels yet, but 72.99 is the next target if we see a bid. From below, there is a cluster of levels to provide support, with 67.91 to be the floor for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1