Petroleum
Why I am long on Oil.Hi let me explain to you why I started going long on Crude OIL.
We had a very dumpy day on Oil, which is when I usually love to buy, and now price is sitting on the daily 50 moving average.
I wanted to short it last weeks, but it didn't go high enough for me.
We have plenty of support under us. Some BS FUD news (as usual) as well as a correction
being needed after several very bullish weeks drove the price down.
First I want to look at 4 of the worse dumps Oil has ever had (I believe these are the 4 worse),
then I will list the supports that are under our feet.
1/ The second half of 2008
What we can take from these charts is:
- The daily Guppy's were not lost without being tested several times.
- They were PLENTY of bounces on the way down.
- I don't know what happened exactly but the weekly moving averages provided a mega bounce
- Once the weekly moving average's were lost... Ouch.
- The monthly 200 moving average provided imense support.
- Bounced 5% on 200DMA
- Oil tested the moving averages as resistance, providing a nice short entry (as a hedge for example)
2/ May - August 2011
- Big fall, big bounce
- Same support as last time worked out just the same.
- Did not bounce until a support was reached.
3/ May-June 2012
- Same stuff as usual
- One distinctions: the weekly guppy's were not going up but flat after the price run around it for months. They did not support that last time.
4/ June 2014 (notice a pattern?) to January 2015
Let's look at what we got this time:
+ The bad news is Putin said 60$ was a decent price for Oil right? Where the weekly MA's at.
Doesn't even have to be risky, for me, if the big supports at 66$ don't hold, I will reduce my position size BUT leave enough for me to make a profit if we bounce right after I exit, and on the way down I will grow my position, just keep adding little by little. The bigger the fall, the bigger the bounce. Easy.
I think I like Oil futures and want to trade them all the time. Reasons are 100 billion dollar daily volume, and INSANE volatility. <3
Always something to do :)
$DNR if you're looking for an entry it would be around here. I think the price is going to dip a little in order for momentum to reset, personally i'm looking for another entry around 3.20 to pick up a little more. Will re-evaluate when that time comes to see if its still a good entry but for now thats my plan.
Woodside Petroleum shareprice surge?With OPEC looking likely to raise the official oil price as oil fracking in the U.S starts to slow & the Saudis cutting oil prices, a surge in the price of most oil & petroleum companies is almost guaranteed. But the question is "how soon?". Looking at the current price of WPL and past chart patterns show that the price surge could be very, very soon.
Short Idea for PBR
On daily chart, it's 3rd day outside from the upper Bollinger Band. It means a calling for a interesting correction.
On hourly chart, an overbought is present on RSI & Stochastic. MACD & Histogram shows a little weakness.
On hourly chart, its target in 10.75 from a triangle breakout has been reached.
Crude OIL (WTI) - Daily and Weekly OutlookOil prices will need a retracement depending on Weekly chart, because of the political and geo-political risk on OIL prices can go higher without a retracement. Question mark implies this possibility. One way or another prices will go higher for long term ( 1 - 2 years).
USOIL Weekly Chart;
Trade idea for 04/25 - 04/26 - Short PETR4If NYMEX:CL1! opens neutral or bearish monday morning I´ll buy BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 PUTS (PETRQ90) aiming a two days correction for PETR4.
"Crude Oil" a Huge profit to be madeCrude oil is making new grounds with it soon to
come with its reverse pull back, same thing
happened in 2009 although there is a possibility
that crude can slide to support at 40$. either
way i will be easing my way into a positions
using the ETF UWTI which is priced very cheaply
at 3$ a share. also a big shout out to @Ricker for showing me UWTI
Timing the next buy opportunity on oil marketsI've seen a lot of people looking at oil's long-term trendline for a speculative buy opportunity this past couple of weeks. While oil prices should remain relatively low as markets work to establish a demand-supply equilibrium in 2015, I agree with the hypothesis of at least a technical bounce once WTI and Brent prices test their trendlines (around $47 for WTI and $53/54 for Brent). To complement all those excellent charts shared by others on this site, I'd simply like to point out the long-term support on the Oil/Gold ratio. It seems like WTI will test it's trend-line when this ratio hits its 1993/1998/2009 lows.
Crude Oil makes wavesBy looking at the CCI and Stochastic RSI and combining them with cyclical up and down movements of the price, we might start to imagine the price falling back to about $100 a barrel. In order for this to happen, we would need to see a slight improvement in the geopolitical arena of Libya and Ukraine. Perhaps the market is building this oil tension into the price, and it could get a lot worse, but we saw a severe decline in oil stocks which really lifted the price. This decline may be due to seasonal higher demand and global economies generally recovering. In any case a sell stop at 103.80 might be an idea.
Defined resistance makes shorting crude oil a compelling idea.We have resistance at 105 and upward sloping support. This converging levels will pinch the price and we should expect a spike up or down in the upcoming day or so.
I have a bias for taking a sell position due to supply news and geo political events.
1. Increased production with Russia has recently begun producing fuel from the arctic and made its first delivery over the weekend. Libya is now exporting more oil as rebels had been creating supply issues.
2. I believe there is just not enough political will to escalate the Ukrainian crisis. With all economies recovering, any conflict, will plunge the world back into recession, and I think this will be avoided at all costs.
3. The relatively high price of the Euro (and the low petrodollar) is propping up the cost of oil. If we see the ECB start to commence QE, we should see the the euro fall dramatically while bringing down the oil price with it.
4. Inventories and supply data show that crude oil stocks are healthy.
5. It would seem that the strong resistance will define the direction of the oil price. Many analysts are saying that the price is overbought. Indeed, technical indicators such as the CCI also say the same thing.
Analysts are predicting a drop between 10 - 15% in the coming months.
