PG
Sector early indicator? No, Consumer Staples, not that much.The Consumer Staples sector - here represented by Procter & Gamble (PG, in pink), Coca Cola (KO, in yellow) and PepsiCo (PEP, in purple) - are mostly not strong early indicators against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... KO & PEP fell from peaks in July 1998, then a period of over six months of weak underperforming prices from Dec 2014, a period of around two and a half months of weak underperforming prices from Aug 2017, then weak underperforming prices for KO & PEP during all of Aug 2018, and a period of around two and a half months of weak underperforming prices from mid Oct 2019.
Sector Rotation March 2021Recent market sector rotation coming out of the COVID crash has confirmed Sector Rotation theory. I made this video to give viewers a brief introduction to the theory and provide some actionable investing ideas based on what Sector Rotation suggests will be the next stocks to potentially outperform.
Sector Rotation theory suggests that from market bottoms the two sectors that should lead are Consumer Discretionary and Technology. These two sectors did in fact lead the market out of the COVID crash. The next sectors to lead as the market matures are Industrials and Materials. These too followed the theory through 2020 as the bull market grew. At the market top Energy is supposed to lead and sure enough we have seen quite the run on Energy related stocks. What that means going forward if the theory holds is that Consumer Staples and Healthcare should outperform the market.
Long Term PGThis morning I am putting on positions in NYSE:PG and NYSE:JNJ as long term holds.
They both fulfil my thesis that if Sector Rotation theory holds the next sectors to outperform should be Consumer Staples and Healthcare. Both companies represent these two sectors in ways. I like their chart patterns as they are right now within pullbacks. These are also good dividend paying stocks.
Understanding the different levels of PGToday, we will use the Daily chart to understand Bullish and Bearish directions on this stock
a) Currently, the price is on a Key Support/Resistance zone, and we can expect a bounce or a breakout
b) If we have a breakout of the current level, the next level we can find support is 112 - 110
c) If the price bounces on the support zone, we have 3 levels to pay attention to and a final target on 170
d) In case we have a bearish breakout, we will wait for the price to reach the next support zone before developing new setups.
e) In case we have a bounce on the current level, we will wait for a bullish breakout of the current flag pattern, and we will use the green line as the activation level. Final target on 170 / Stop loss below the Flag Pattern
Thanks for reading!
PG - range bound This is my kind of gamble...Proctor Gamble. Less of a gamble when you allow the trade to come to you.
Knowing where yearly high/low sit, you wait for the perfect setup. Although not 100% perfect yet, we have the price bouncing off yearly acting as support with pinbar setup pinning not only off of support but the Bollinger band as well. A solid confluence. With the TRND Bot buy signal about to fire, I'm heavy on calls here once I see how Tuesdays open turns out. Placing a stop loss right under support makes this less of a gamble trade and more of a proctor trade!
"Proctor is a person who takes charge of, or acts for, another. Purpose to provide accountability" Are you accountable for your trades?!
Good luck and safe trading!
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Flag Pattern above key Support on PGToday, we will share a bullish view we have on Procter & Gamble Co.
a) After making a new ATH from JUL 2020 to NOV 2020, we saw a corrective movement that found support on the ATH before the Pandemic.
b) Now, we can observe a key Support zone with a Flag pattern above it.
c) Flag Patterns are considered continuation structures, and the confirmation level is when the price goes above B
d) We expect a bullish resolution of this stock. IF the price reaches our confirmation level, and a bullish movement towards the First and second Fibo Extension.
PG Bearish inclined naked calls - 22 Jan expiryJanuary's Secondary Trade
This trade is slightly riskier and is the opposite of the general market movement ( bullish ).
The reasons why I pegged this as bearish is:
Based on the 9 Nov price movement due to the US elections, where post COVID-19 stocks spiked, PG fell.
Consumer Defensive sector seems to be in a position where traders in the short term don't see much aggressive growth vs other sectors which have taken a beating and are poised for bigger climbs as we advance against the virus with the vaccines
PG also seems to be contained in a range that puts my strike in a favorable position as it is near the upper S/R Line.
I'm slightly worried about the Earning release on the 20 Jan and might close this trade before just to be safe. This trade will be hedged with a bullish VXX trade, paid by the Jan premiums
Sold 7 CALLs @ 1.5, Strike 142
BP block: 17k
Max gain est: $1045
What we can see on PGToday, we will share our VIEW on PG.
a) The main structure of the current movement is the ascending channel, which has been broken, and currently, we can see the price on the edge of it
b) The second most relevant structure is the corrective pattern we can see on the edge of the ascending channel
c) If we have a breakout of the corrective structure (on the green line), We will consider that the view is active
d) If the price goes as expected, the first Fibo level is a risk-free zone, meaning that we would move our stop loss to break-even
e) Our Final target is 167, where we expect a 100 days movement
f) Also, it's essential to pay attention to the invalidation level. If the price reaches it, we will consider that our view is no longer valid, and maybe a bearish movement could start.
bearish divergence on PGPG hitting 52 week highs, you can see the bulls are losing steam as the RSI and MACD are making lower highs, the last daily candle got pushed down hard at the resistance line, looking for anther bearish daily candle for confirmation. I think we could easily see 104 in the coming days, the market as a whole is looking prime for a pullback. If we break trend line don't mind me. these bearish divergence calls are difficult to time and the divergence can last must longet than you think! trade carefully! this is not trading or financial advise!!!!!