PGR Weekly Bearish Setup – 2025-06-13 Expiry📉 PGR Weekly Bearish Setup – 2025-06-13 Expiry
🧠 AI Model Consensus | NYSE:PGR
Despite a short-term bounce, multiple AI models signal a bearish bias this week for Progressive Corp ( NYSE:PGR ), driven by weak daily charts and heavy put interest around the $250 zone.
🧪 Model Breakdown:
🔹 Grok/xAI
• 📉 Bearish overall: Price < daily EMAs, negative MACD, oversold RSI
• 🟢 5-min chart shows temporary bounce
• ⚠️ Max pain & heavy put OI @ $250
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $260P @ market (target +50%, SL: stock > $272.50)
• 📈 Confidence: 65%
🔹 Claude/Anthropic
• 📉 Below all EMAs (5-min + daily), RSI oversold
• ⚠️ Max pain at $250, put dominance
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $260P @ ~$0.70 → PT: $1.40 (100%), SL: $0.35
• 📈 Confidence: ~66%
🔹 Llama/Meta
• 📉 Daily chart bearish, MACD down, near lower BB
• 🟢 Short-term bounce likely
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $260P @ $0.85 → PT: $1.275 (50%), SL: $0.25
🔹 Gemini/Google
• 🚨 Strongly bearish daily (MACD down, BB breakdown)
• 📊 Recommends $262.50P for better liquidity
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $262.5P @ $1.25 → PT: $2.50 (100%), SL: $0.625
• 📈 Strategy: Day-trade or short swing
🔹 DeepSeek
• 📉 Bearish across timeframes; RSI oversold, price < EMAs
• ⚠️ Max pain at $250, strong put skew
• 🛠️ Trade: Buy $260P @ $0.85 → PT: $1.70 (100%), SL: $0.425
• 📈 Confidence: 75%
✅ Consensus Summary:
📉 Market Direction: Bearish
• Daily structure weak across all models
• Max pain + put OI @ $250 = downside magnet
• Short-term relief rally possible, but larger trend down
• $262.50P selected for best liquidity & execution
📌 Suggested Trade Setup
🎯 Symbol: NYSE:PGR
🟢 Strike: 262.50 PUT
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13
💵 Entry Price: $1.25
🎯 Profit Target: $2.50 (+100%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $0.625 (–50%)
📈 Confidence: 75%
⏰ Entry Timing: Market open
⚠️ Risk Factors
• 📈 Short-term RSI oversold → possible bounce
• 🟢 5-min trend relief rally could cause drawdown
• 🧊 VIX dropping → lower option volatility
• 💸 Liquidity better at $262.50 than $260 strikes
📊 TRADE JSON
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PGR
PGR The Progressive Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PGR The Progressive Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 220usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-16,
for a premium of approximately $10.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
PGR | InformativeNYSE:PGR
*I'm bearish on this, because it's overbought and also based on EW, we should expect the rejection. but here are the both scenarios.
If the stock price surpasses the bullish line at approximately $157.05, the immediate upside target could be:
Bullish Target Price 1: Drawing an inference based on the chart's pattern, considering the amplitude of prior upward moves (such as the move from point 2 to 3), a potential target could be around $165-167. However, this is an approximation, and exact figures may vary.
If the stock price falls below the bearish line at $154.82, there are a few potential downside retracement targets based on Fibonacci levels:
(a) 0.382 retracement at $140.31.
(a) 0.5 retracement at $134.79.
(a) 0.618 retracement at $129.27.
These levels are based on the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci retracement which predicts potential retracement levels after a significant move.
PGR The Progressive Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PGR The Progressive Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
PGR - Weekly & Daily SetupPGR
BUYZONE = 81 - 82
Cost Ang Down (CAD) = 70 -71
1st Target = 92
2nd Target = 98
HODL Target = ATH+
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This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
progressive corp - long pgr there are 2 dimensions supporting long position on the stock
1. from fundmental point of view the company have high piotrosli f-score of 8.39 (9 is max) and and 2+% dividend
which is sort of safety cusion
2. from technical point of view the company broke up a triangle with a big than usual volume and a high
green candle + the short term EMAs crossed the long term EMAs + CMF is positive
stop (for traders) under the lower trend line