Buy the dip in SAVA based on strong Alzheimer's trial dataCassava Sciences (SAVA) just got some positive clinical trial data on their Alzheimer’s drug. The result caused one analyst firm to upgrade SAVA’s price target from $3.00 per share to $6.00 per share. SAVA’s got a 9.4/10 analyst summary score, with most analysts rating the stock a “buy.” I entered SAVA Friday morning at $2.16 per share. It’s already up almost 100% from its share price last month, but I think it could continue its run next week.
Pharmaceuticals
Some upside potential in Athenex after sales beatAnalysts have been lowering their earnings forecasts on Athenex, Inc., causing the stock to crash. However, the company not only met earnings expectations on its report this morning, but also beat sales expectations and raised its full-year revenue guidance from a 32.5% increase to a 37.5% increase year-over-year. That's a pretty big bump, and it could cause analysts to revise their views on the company in the coming weeks. One or two upgrades could send this stock climbing back to the $14-15 range.
A long-term risk is the company's financial health. Athenex operates at a large loss and only has cash to fund operations until late 2020. The company is expected to make some progress toward profitability by then, but it will still be a long way from achieving that goal. So this is not a safe long-term investment; it's just a short-term scalp.
Nektar should test 21.34 on earnings strength and might fill gapNektar Therapeutics got a big upside surprise on its earnings report for both earnings and revenue. With earnings and revenue trending up, $21-22 is a fair price for the stock given analyst estimates from before the earnings report. There's resistance at 21.34, so we may initially get rejected from that level.
In the near-to-mid-term, however, the earnings beat should lead analysts to revise their forecasts upward. Depending on the size of the revisions, Nektar could attempt a gap fill up to 27.85. (Average analyst price target is over $29.)
A little jump before big dump ?!Still bullish on AZN.L but ascending broadening wedge :
- Need to break 7 580$ resistance
- RSI divergence
- MM20 > MM50
Statiscally in 80% of cases, the exit of this pattern is bearish.
So, I will open a short position around 7 400 $. (TPs on chart)
Always 2 gap to fill :
- Around 6 930 $
- Around 6 550 $
Happy trading
Ascending Triangle Breakout from Double Bottom for up trend ideaAfter years of going from top-left to bottom-right, there was a Double Bottom bounce with an Ascending Triangle currently sitting at the top of bounce. NASDAQ pre-market volume is quite nice, and the weekly volume has been consistent with price movement direction. The weekly EMA and SMA are moving from vertical to horizontal, the last three weekly candles are currently green, and the angle from the lowest weekly opening to the current price is pointing (from left to right) in an up direction. Good luck to all.
MNK: DEAT CAT BOUNCE OPPORTUNITYMNK is dead or almost dead. Often times there is a dead cat bounce in stocks like these, as 'everybody' gets the same idea to throw some money at it.
This is a high risk scenario but with potentially good risk to reward ratios.
Disclaimers : I've clearly said this is high risk. This not advice to trade in securities. I am simply showing what may happen from a perspective of speculative opinion only. Your losses are your own if you enter a trade on this. Kindly sue yourself if you lose your money.
DRG - Pharmaceuticals Finding Relative StrengthDRG broke out of a consolidation period during yesterday's trading & continued its bullish momentum today. The industry is also beginning to find relative strength against the SPX. This could be an industry worth looking around in to find some stocks to provide alpha if it continues to strengthen.
FOMX - Foamix Pharma Reversal Pattern FormedOn October 18th, 2019, the FDA approved Amzeeq, otherwise known as FMX101 for the Israel based pharmaceutical company, Foamix. Amzeeq happens to be the first and only topical monocyline treatment to be used on acne patients. In anticipation of approval for this new product, shares of FOMX rallied from $2.53 per share on 10/08/2019 all the way up to highs around $3.63 per share. As it turns out, the anticipation for the approval is now correcting lower to what seemed to be overbought conditions in anticipation. FOMX 101 is expected to be entering into the market early next year with the hopes of being on shelves for January 2020. This new topical treatment will be entering the dermatology market which happens to be worth several billion dollars. This is very good news for a company that has been anticipating FDA approval for several years, these are make or break moments for new companies.
If you look at the chart above, I posted what seems to be a hammer which I am waiting for the end of the day for confirmation. If this pattern holds, this may be a reversal pattern to hop into FOMX to join the reversal towards December price targets between $3-$6 dollars. Watch to see if the hammer pattern holds, then watch to see if the reversal in confirmed. If we see a reversal, we may be looking towards short terms gains of 25% and higher. Option markets are pricing in a high volume of $4 and $5 strike price calls for december.
Cheers,
AC
LABU - watch the volume and trend lineBiotech has had a hard time of it lately due to both political risks related to the election and litigation risks from the opioid epidemic. All of this, of course, on top of broad market weakness due to the China trade war.
However, biotech earnings are better than most sectors this season, so the bear market likely won't continue forever. I've drawn a trend line on my 1-hour chart and am watching for an upward breakout. Today we had some nice volume come in as we recovered from oversold on the daily chart and achieved our first green day for some time. However, we fell short of the minimum 6 million shares I'd like to see to signify a true reversal. We also fell short of breaking my trend line.
I expect LABU will fall to about 25.50 before it's likely to get a real bounce.
High-risk, high-reward drug catalyst play on ASRTAssertio therapeutics is slated to get an FDA ruling on its new drug application for cosyntropin depot by October 19. If the FDA approves the drug, the stock could move up significantly. Assertio has an 8.9/10 Equity StarMine Summary Score and is rated extremely undervalued by S&P Capital IQ. Despite relatively good earnings last quarter, the stock price is down due to a stock offering after the earnings report. Assertio also has a lot of exposure to litigation or regulation around opioids, because its most successful drug is an opiate. A new drug approval could shake the stock out of its lethargy and give it a really nice boost. Short interest in the stock is reasonably high, at 15% of float, which could contribute to a short squeeze. Of course, failure to get approval would send the stock tumbling.
J&J vs opioids (Johnson is winning)Fundamental analysis
In one of the first state opioid cases, an Oklahoma judge ruled against Johnson & Johnson, awarding the state $572 million, well below the over $17 billion the state was seeking in damages.
Meaning... out of the 17 billion, they lost only 3.36%, and they expect to appeal the case, probably lowering this amount.
Technical analysis
On a technical analysis, I still think the risk reward ratio is too small to enter a position now. But technicals are good (not great). So I am keeping this on my watchlist.
ALKS BUY 03.09.2019BUY signal at 20.98 $
Alkermes plc is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the researching, developing and commercializing pharmaceutical products that are designed to address medical needs of patients in therapeutic areas.
If you want to see more history of this strategy, I will able to show you if you request me.
ATTENTION this strategy may has downtrend about 20%, so you can split your buy order, that you have not big downtrend.
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GlaxoSmithKline - Top of the range, limited upside.SELL – GLAXOSMITHKLINE (GSK)
GlaxoSmithKline PLC is a global healthcare company. The Company operates through two segments: Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. The Company focuses on its research across six areas: Respiratory diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/infectious diseases, Vaccines, Immuno-inflammation, Oncology and Rare diseases.
Fundamentals
GlaxoSmithKline has shifted strategy in recent months by increasing spend on science research and development by 12%, this has been seen by some as too little to late. AstraZeneca implemented a similar plan 5 years ago. Revenues were flat at GSK in the most recent market update. The timing of the additional investment is also under scrutiny as net debt increased from £23.9bn to £28.7bn. The share price feels a bit heavy here and it could be time to cash in.
Best Broker Target Price: 1750p (Jefferies 23/04/2019)
Worst Broker Target Price: 1575p (Deutsche Bank 08/07/2019)
Technical Analysis
The share price of GlaxoSmithKline has been trading in a huge range since mid-2015. The price has gyrated between 1227-1745 for many months and there appears to have been another failure at the upper end of the range. The week commencing 29th July 2019 ended with a inverted hammer candle, this is a bearish signal and suggests further downside could be seen in the short term. It is possible that we could see a continuation of the range.
Recommendation: Sell between 1600-1750p
Stop: 1780p
Target: 1230p
Pharmaceuticals showing strength this earnings seasonIt's been a banner quarter for large-cap pharmaceutical companies. We've had earnings beats and guidance upgrades from GlaxoSmithKline, Biogen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, Celgene, and Procter & Gamble. More earnings beats may be coming, with Amgen reporting today after market and Amarin tomorrow. In my opinion, the whole sector is set to surge, and the leveraged Direxion Biotech Bull ETF could be a very strong play this quarter if you can find a good entry point.
AMGN attempting trend line breakout ahead of earningsAmgen is attempting a breakout above its one-month downward trend line this morning. I will wait to enter until I see a change in volume. Currently there's bearish divergence on the volume profile, which suggests that this may correct downward before confirming the breakout.
Amgen reports earnings tomorrow, and has a positive earnings surprise prediction from Zacks. Amgen has beaten analyst estimates 7 of 8 quarters in the last 2 years. The company's recent price weakness and great valuation (15.8% below the average analyst price target) makes it a good candidate for a pop on an earnings beat.
Biogen ascending triangleBiogen has formed an ascending triangle. With strong earnings and a guidance upgrade, the catalysts favor upward breakout. However, certain aspects of Biogen's business are struggling and face increasing competition, so the stock could also fall. I will play oscillations within the triangle by buying and selling crossovers of the green line, with stop losses in place. I will also play the eventual breakout.
Zynerba Pharmaceuticals in upward channelZynerba Pharmaceuticals has been surging since it got added to the Russell 2000 and 3000 indices. It is in an upward channel, just broke trendline resistance, and looks strong on the indicators, including high buying volume. It will meet short-term resistance around 16.47. Look for a break above that level on volume.