Near 20-year lows, Amneal is still too riskyGeneric drug maker Amneal has been slowly melting down since 2015, falling from $50 per share to today's closing price of $3.44. Amneal makes money, though it missed estimates last quarter by about $0.04 per share.
S&P Capital IQ rates it an undervalued, high quality, and financially healthy company, but I think that overstates the case. In my opinion this company is at real financial risk. Amneal's cash reserve shrank by 3/4 year-over-year, while its accounts receivable grew in an equal amount. That suggests that while Amneal's assets may look good on paper, it may not be very liquid. Amneal may need to do a better job with collections. Furthermore, ongoing litigation over price fixing and the opioid epidemic exposes Amneal to potential damages of $1.2 billion, almost its total current assets.
Amneal has some support at its current share price as it approaches lows from back in 2008 and 2002-2003. It also got an analyst upgrade today from SVB Leerink after the analytics firm determined that of the major generic drug makers, Amneal has the least exposure to that ongoing litigation I mentioned. (Endo Phramaceuticals has the most exposure, and Teva comes in second.) However, given the enormity of the drug makers' exposure, saying Amneal is the least exposed doesn't mean much.
If the litigation plays out in the generic drug makers' favor, Amneal will be a great stock available at bargain basement pricing. Until then, this stock is much too risky. It may continue to fall to its 1998 lows of under $1 per share.
Pharmaceuticals
Look for Merck to respect trend line before enteringMerck ended the day near the bottom of its parallel channel, right above a high-volume support node at 8.19 and a trend line that's parallel with channel bottom. After hours, the price has moved below both the support and the trend line, but in my experience, after hours moves don't necessarily mean much. The real test will be tomorrow after market open. If the trend line breaks, then the price will test the bottom of the channel. That will be an opportunity for an entry with a tight stop loss.
Merck had a product launch after hours today (a smart pet feeder) that could help move the price upward, but honestly this stock has so many catalysts that I'm not sure investors pay much attention to them anymore. This one is pretty minor in the scheme of things. More important factors are Merck's strong analyst ratings and long history of earnings beats. One possible downside catalyst is Merck's slightly negative Earnings Surprise Prediction from Zacks.
XBIO - RSI DivergenceXBIO - Long (100 Shares) - RSI Divergence confirmed with 8&20SMA cross up. Huge buy volume on the divergence compared to average volume (very low volume instrument)
Entry - 11.18
SL - $8.53 (Last week's low)
TP - $19.91 (200SMA)
Net Risk - $265
R/R - 3.3
AVROBIO not a good value despite great clinical trial resultsAVROBIO got a good pop today from very positive Phase 2 clinical trial results from its kidney drug. Unquestionably the news was good; the drug shows strong efficacy and no adverse events.
However, this was only a Phase 2 trial so there's a long way still to go in the approval process. Meanwhile, the company is losing money and is rated as an overvalued and financially unhealthy company by analytics firms.
AVRO has some support from historical volume in the range from 15.00-15.50, so it could get a short-term bounce from that level, but I wouldn't play this one long-term.
SOLY falling despite strong clinical trial resultsInvestors bought the hype surrounding SOLY's clinical trial results, and today they sold the news. SOLY fell nearly 14% despite better-than-expected results in its cellulite treatment trial.
Looking at the volume profile, I think SOLY may continue to fall to the 14.00-14.50 range, and then rebound upward from there. I wouldn't enter any earlier than that.
NEOS - Bear Trend Reversal (RSI Divergence)NEOS - Long (500 Shares)
Entry - $1.67
SL - $1.37 - Yesterday's low
TP - 2.27
Net Risk - $683.33
R/R - 2
Dis-Chem Bullish SentimentThe skills and knowledge we apply in currencies can also be applied in any other market, how so?, as long as there is a chart, technical analysis can be used to predict and/or determine future movements, along with fundamentals and economic events.
Here is a possible investment opportunity for those interested in owning shares.
Good Luck ;)
Syros Pharmaceuticals may be ripe for a day tradeSyros Pharmaceuticals made a big move up this morning, but has retraced to support at 7.08 (not reflected on the chart yet for some reason). It may bounce higher later today.
Arvinas Pharmaceuticals likely to reach 25.60Arvinas Pharmaceuticals is on a run thanks to FDA approval of phase 1 clinical trials on a new drug. It's above critical resistance levels and appears to have clearance up to 25.60.
Personally I won't be taking a position in this one, though. Arvinas's earnings are pretty garbage, and honestly a phase 1 clinical trial doesn't mean much in this industry.
We've also got a Democratic debate coming up, so I've exited all my positions in pharmaceuticals and healthcare lest they take a hit due to rhetoric about universal healthcare or drug price controls. There's lots of litigation around the ACA right now that provides additional risk. I'm not sure how this fight will play out or how markets would react to the various outcomes.
LABU Long ideaIt sounds like the trade war between USA and China is about to get resolved. IF it does I expect a move higher for the markets. With LABU sitting on lower support, it should be a short term low risk BUY.
ITCI bullish call activity and insider buyingITCI is moving mostly horizontally lately, and there's definite room for downside to its channel bottom around 10.40, so this is a risky play. However, a large stock purchase a couple days ago by one of the board of directors triggered a large volume of bullish option activity. Possibly the director purchased stock in anticipation of forthcoming clinical trial results that he expects to be positive. Watch this one closely and look for an opportunity to buy nearer the channel bottom. Alternatively, wait for upside channel breakout.
ITCI has generally poor analyst ratings and negative earnings. However, it's made progress toward profitability and generally delivered earnings beats in recent quarters. It next reports on August 6.
Pieris Pharmaceuticals upward channelPieris is in an upward channel and looking bullish. Analyst ratings on the stocks aren't great, but Zacks has given it a HUGE Earnings Surprise Prediction (13.25%!), which should help the stock continue its run until the next report date in early August. Be aware, however, that it is approaching some stiff resistance above $4.60. It should rise Monday, but then it may go horizontal for a while until the channel pushes it upward.
Buy ICPT at this multiple support - 8:1 reward to risk ratioPattern: $84-$90 support has proven itself a multiple times. Stock is in a medium term consolidation pattern between $85 to $130 range.
Edge: Buying so close to or right at support gives us a great reward to risk ratio. If the stock breaks below support, we are stopped out for a small loss, but if support is protected again, we have more higher upside.
Risk Management:
Bought at $87
Stop Loss = $84
Profit target 1 = $113
Profit target 2 = $130
Profit target 3 = open
Risking $3 to make at least $26 for PT1. That's over 8:1 ratio for just PT1!
BIOMARIN - GOOD BUY OPPORTUNITYToday we gonna look at the pharmaceutical company, as a potential new giant trend on the stock market. NASDAQ:BMRN laying on the strong support line near $87.87 and can move up suddenly. My recommendation:
1. Buy now around 87.87
2. Take profit: 109.45
3. SL: 78.68
Risk/Reward - 2.39, potential profit - 24,6%
BLUEBIRD BIO INC - AWESOME TIME TO LONG THIS STORYAnother pharma company - with amazing correct Elliot 5 waves which you can try to ride.
1. Buy 131.32
2. Take profit: 213
3. SL: 115.90
RISK/REWARD: 5.38, potential profit 62.39%
Long If The Pattern ContinuesHere we can see that for the past INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS INC has been finding support at around in around $87, which has been confirmed 5 times, and a resistance of about $116-$120, which is a little less defined but just looking at the chart, it is there. Once the pattern proves itself that price action is going bull up to support, that's when I will go long. But for now we wait, anything could happen. Also looking at the chart, we see every single time earnings come out within this pattern, price action goes bull, and very quickly.
Thumbs up if you like my ideas
Bullish Inverted H&S Potentialtarget 1: $3.70 - 3.94
lets see how the next 2 weeks play out (some time around 4/24/2019)
CVS Health Corporation stock sell opportunities CVS Health Corporation is american stock pharmacy operator offering nice sell opportunities at new supply imbalances created on both the weekly and the monthly timeframes with everything pointing down in a clear downtrend with new supply levels being created and demand levels being eliminated. Strong imbalances created on the way down.Two new supply levels have been created on the monthly and weekly charts. Monthly supply imbalances is located around $64 per share and weekly supply imbalance is around $65 per share.
As supply and demand traders, we do not need to pay attention to the news, fundamentals or any earnings reports. Once a big timeframe imbalance has gained control, earnings do just the opposite and reacts strongly to those imbalances. Why is it that you see positive earnings and then the underlying stock drops like a rock, or a negative earnings announcement and the stock rallies like a rocket out of control? You are probably missing the fact that there are big imbalances gaining control.Unless you are doing very short term trading and scalping, you should not worry about fundamentals or earnings announcements. You can use these imbalances to plan your trades in lower timeframes.
Trading is just waiting for the right trigger points and scenarios to present themselves, this game has got a name and it’s called the waiting game. We need to patiently wait for the correct scenarios and setups to happen and wait for price to pullback or dip into the price levels we want to trade, in our case supply and demand imbalances. There are several ways of buying stocks. When trading stocks, you can buy shares of the underlying stock or use options strategies to go long or short at these specific supply and demand levels, long calls or long puts or spreads. You can even buy a CFD (contracts for difference) if you are in a country where it’s allowed.If you still want to take earnings into account, it has not been good for CVS Health Corporation lately, read below some of this fundamental analysis...In a note to investors previewing the healthcare services sector's first quarter, analyst David MacDonald said he expects a challenging year for the Woonsocket, Rhode Island-based company, but pointed to "a unique collection of assets." He said he expected CVS's first-quarter results to reflect a handful of challenges, including reimbursement pressure, fewer generics, lower brand inflation."While 2019 is expected to be difficult," MacDonald wrote, "we remain positive on CVS' underlying value proposition tied to its integrated pharmacy/medical benefits, unique set of assets, meaningful patient touch points, and strong clinical programs, and view the company as well positioned to bend the cost curve over time.Can you really make sense out of those statements? I just can't. That's a very thick layer of complexity you would be adding to your trading plan. We have to make easier and faster decisions that don't lean on suppositions or forecasts based on X and Y fundamentals data. Everything is pointing down, so short bias.
Some information about CVS Health CorporationCVS Health Corporation provides health services and plans in the United States. Its Pharmacy Services segment offers pharmacy benefit management solutions, such as plan design and administration, formulary management, retail pharmacy network management, mail order pharmacy, specialty pharmacy and infusion, Medicare Part D, clinical, disease management, and medical spend management services. The company's Retail/LTC segment sells prescription drugs and general merchandise, such as over-the-counter drugs, beauty products, cosmetics, and personal care products, as well as provides health care services through its MinuteClinic walk-in medical clinics. Its Health Care Benefits segment offers traditional, voluntary, and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental, behavioral health, medical management, Medicare plans, PDPs, Medicaid health care management services, workers' compensation administrative services, and health information technology products and services.
Biogen Inc: Rare Long-Term Buy Opportunity.Biogen has lost over 30% of its value this month. Looking at the monthly chart, we have concluded that this is a rare investment opportunity as the current price is just above its 1M Support Zone.
Historically we see that such an aggressive sell off recently took place in 2015 - 2016 and again the stock managed to recover almost reaching the 390 Resistance again. This pattern may be similar to the one the long term (~10 year) consolidation that took place after the 2000 peak. The price then traded sideways roughly within 17.00 - 71.00, providing a buy opportunity on every major pull back.
We believe such an opportunity is presented now. Every dip near the 180 - 205 Support Zone can be bought with 350 - 390 as the Target Zone.
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Canopy GC: High return long term investment.Canopy Growth Corporation is on strong long term bullish price action both on 1W (RSI = 58.856, MACD = 4.873, Highs/Lows = 2.6189) and 1M (RSI = 66.122, MACD = 12.099, Highs/Lows = 7.3414). Since mid 2017 in particular, it has been trading on Higher Lows reaching +1000% in growth. Using the Pitchfork to identify the pressure zone, we estimate that the asset is close close to a bullish accumulation point (Higher Low). Out moderate Higher High target is 110.00.
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ABBV consolidating with gap to fill higherWatching for ABBV to break this wedge and go higher to fill the gap from earnings.
