Biogen Inc: Rare Long-Term Buy Opportunity.Biogen has lost over 30% of its value this month. Looking at the monthly chart, we have concluded that this is a rare investment opportunity as the current price is just above its 1M Support Zone.
Historically we see that such an aggressive sell off recently took place in 2015 - 2016 and again the stock managed to recover almost reaching the 390 Resistance again. This pattern may be similar to the one the long term (~10 year) consolidation that took place after the 2000 peak. The price then traded sideways roughly within 17.00 - 71.00, providing a buy opportunity on every major pull back.
We believe such an opportunity is presented now. Every dip near the 180 - 205 Support Zone can be bought with 350 - 390 as the Target Zone.
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Pharmaceuticals
Canopy GC: High return long term investment.Canopy Growth Corporation is on strong long term bullish price action both on 1W (RSI = 58.856, MACD = 4.873, Highs/Lows = 2.6189) and 1M (RSI = 66.122, MACD = 12.099, Highs/Lows = 7.3414). Since mid 2017 in particular, it has been trading on Higher Lows reaching +1000% in growth. Using the Pitchfork to identify the pressure zone, we estimate that the asset is close close to a bullish accumulation point (Higher Low). Out moderate Higher High target is 110.00.
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Are ASPEN's Woes Nearly Over?Aspen is a global supplier and manufacturer of branded and generic pharmaceutical products as well as infant nutritionals and consumer healthcare products in selected territories.
ASPEN has been under the microscope over the past few years with various negative rumors and investigations driving the share price lower and lower. I believe that we haven't quite seen the bottom yet but that there is a possibility of strength to come soon. Perhaps a take over is what they need?
Technicals
The corrective structure has seen a break of the 61.8% Fib retracement level and is currently trading below it. I am expecting to see wave 3 end at the 78.6% level. In my opinion, it is likely that there will be a rally from that point onwards and that the structure will break to the upside. A larger retracement than that would indicate serious repercussions for ASPEN and I am certain that they will do everything in their power to avert a further decline in share price.
Long in NVO Established There are several aspects to this chart- the wave analysis is certainly up for debate, but what remains is improving fundamentals.
On this chart we have a corrective sequence ABC starting in 2014 and concluding in early 2017. On this chart, we can see the 30 day MA volume skyrockets in the beginning of 2017. This corresponds to the timing of the Obama administration focusing their healthcare attacks on big pharma, specifically drug pricing. We can even see a faint busted head and shoulders on this chart, with the right shoulder being broken by terrible guidance on earnings
At the peak in 2015, we also see a peak in operating profit margin. Over the next 12 month fundamentals began to draw back with book value/share, liquidity ratios, and margins all slowly declining. As Obamacare got pushed through US congress (where over 50% of revenue is earned), the outlook looked bleak. Then the Man who lives above the Guchi Store was elected, and big pharma saw hope on the horizon and began surging higher. This was a false bull market though; margins and liquidity ratios were not improving for NVO.
Then the surprise happened, President Trump began attacking pharma. Combined with the already volatile stock market NVO plunged to a correction right at the .618 fibonnaci level, if it maintains this as the low a perfect sign that the 2 impulse wave has just completed.
Where we stand now:
Novo Nordisk, one of the largest pill pushers was forced to lower outlooks with increasing competition from generics. With this pressure, the company has been forced to cut many US jobs and refocus R&D spending, rendering some patents and research useless. Over the last few years they've been forced to impair assets for use on their income statement, but NVO still maintains a 2.29 P/Tangible Book ratio, (better than peers: GSK, BMY, LLY). Gross margins have begun improving and P/S has landed at one of the lowest, if not the lowest level in the peer group. Improvement on the liquidity measures could send this stock flying, but most importantly is the deadlock that could ensue in congress. Recently one of the up-and-coming generics plunged as the FDA put a hold on their diabetes drug trial.
I took a long position in NVO on 11/27 and plan on holding this until I either get stopped out at 44 or we rally to previous highs
Loxo - Bull pennant and upcoming eventsThis is the weekly chart on Loxo Oncology. This biotech focuses on cancer treatments by targeting genetic mutations that create protein chimers that lead to unregulated cellular proliferation. In English, and very simply, imagine a copy machine. When you press 'Copy' you should get one duplicate of the item you want copied. Cells have similar systems where a protein in the cell membrane receives a signal from the outside world telling the cell to divide and make a copy of itself.
Now imagine your copy machine crosses circuits with a 'Repeat' button. This will lead to infinite, unchecked copying. In cancer a similar thing occurs. Genetic mutations can cause the growth signalling protein to get joined to other proteins leading to unchecked, infinite cellular proliferation. This is one of the several steps to developing cancer. Loxo has developed and is testing drugs that target these specific mutations.
Their leading drug, Lorotrectinib, targets TRK fusion proteins (-tinib as a suffix indicates it inhibits tyrosine kinases) and has shown good efficacy in combating several types of cancer with minimal side effects reported. Notable upcoming events are a data review at an upcoming oncology conference October 19-23, Earnings Report on 11/5/18, and a New Drug Application review PDUFA by the FDA on 11/26/2018. The last date is the most important as Loxo could see Lorotrectinib obtain FDA approval. Other possibilities for the PDUFA are an extension of the review or rejection of the drug. From the research reports I have read so far on Lorotrectinib I am doubtful a rejection/denial will happen. I suspect it will either be approved or the review extended and this will depend upon new data, likely to be presented in October.
The chart currently looks bullish to me. There is a clear uptrend long term with us likely in a Wave 2 in Elliot Wave Theory. Mid term price is consolidating in a descending wedge/bull pennant. The safe trade is to buy once price breaks the top of the channel. An aggressive option is to buy when price touches the bottom of the channel. If I buy prior to earnings I will probably trim half my position the day before ER then play the run up to the PDUFA review late November.
***This is not investing advice. I am not an investing professional. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. All investors should seek guidance from licensed financial advisers and not random people on the internet.***
AVEO missed earnings - kidney cancer treatment too thinly tradedMedical stock that's too thinly traded got mixed review on clinical trial results on Tivozanib, which showed efficacy, just not to level expected and testing new low for 2018 at 2.03 and below full fibonacci retracement of 2.10 as prior low. NASDAQ:AVEO
TTNP analysis following the stock as 5 directors purchased hundreds of thousands of stock for the price of 24 cents on sept 21st just as it started to move sideways and broke out of the resistance. It broke out of its strong downward channel, so I'll be monitoring it to see any significant runs. This is also the beginning of a golden cross if im not mistaken.
BLRX-BREAKOUT-UPDATEBLRX had a strong rally today and it's just getting started.
In the related idea my price target was $1.34.
Today's high was $1.78
Check out the weekly chart:
Photo Finish.
$1.34 was 1.618 extension level from Waves 1 & 2.
Since the price-action broke $1.34 we will have an extended 3rd wave.
I expect a very strong rally tomorrow, I will update in the morning before the open to confirm.
Target is hard to predict since its impossible to know what level extending waves will terminate.
I will keep a close eye on the price-action.
Will update.
-AB
MYL out of the bullish wedge new buy longThe price has closed above the downtrend line started this year with consistent volumes. I opened a buy as I am expecting increasing volume and strenght in the next sessions. Tps are already highlighted on the right.
TCON Tracon Pharmaceuticals, INC. Massive Gains, High Risk!keeping it simple!
We have seemed to reach the bottom 2$ mark once again, and have indicators of a bounce to the top of the wedge, and possible breakout!
I see the moku cloud turning bullish slightly, and buy signals in this area firing.
We had a weekly sqeeze fire short, which seems to be slowing down right about now, with noticable increased volume over the last week.
TCON is also having a update in 2 days at a conference, which could be a positive. Usually people only meet to update investors with PROGRESS.
High risk trading here, massive potential gains. BIO stocks are locked and loaded!
Happy Trading, debating and speculating!
MNKD - Next Resistance Level 1.5, or Reversal of DownTrendLooking for a resistance level that causes a reversal of trend. You can see the 2.01 resistance level was hit on 9/6, and 9/7 the price fell through to 1.78. If the downward trend continues, the next resistance level to be hit would be 1.5. Substantial sell volume on 9/5, 9/6 and 9/7 could be indicative of a higher likelihood for a trend reversal early next week.
According to Chris Lau at InvestorPlace, a 10 yr discounted cash flow revenue exit model values shares at an average of $2.40, placing the stock at a current discount of 20/25%, assuming revenue increases due to the new partnership with UTHR.
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