ENDP - SHORT-TERM SHORT & LONG-TERM BUY - Endo Pharma ENDP
Endo International plc is a highly focused generics and specialty branded pharmaceutical company delivering quality medicines through excellence in development, manufacturing and commercialization. Through our operating companies – Endo Pharmaceuticals, Par Pharmaceutical and Paladin Labs – Endo is dedicated to serving patients in need. Endo commenced operations in 1997 by acquiring certain pharmaceutical products, related rights and assets from The DuPont Merck Pharmaceutical Company.
The Crash: Revenue Is In Free Fall
Endo Pharmaceuticals: The Free Fall Continues
Mar. 26, 2018
Summary
Revenue from ENDP's core Generics business is in decline and other business segments appear in disarray.
Its $8B debt load is at 7.5x run-rate EBITDA. If operating income continues to slide, it could hurt ENDP's ability to service its debt.
ENDP ENDP trades at 9x EBITDA, but it is uncertain if potential legal exposures pursuant to opioids are priced in.
Sell ENDP.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Shocking The Street.
There is a war being fought over drug prices. Lawmakers have hit back at price gougers and opioid manufacturers, and Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) is in the middle of it. A few months ago, I thought Endo was at an inflection point and there was a good probability it could turn things around. However, its slide continues.
What: The bottom dropped out from under shares of Endo International plc (NASDAQ:ENDP), the specialty pharma famous for selling "uncrushable" opioids and agreeing to enormous legal settlements. After management revealed disturbing revisions of its 2016 full-year estimates, the stock plummeted 41.4% last month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Logical? Sold because they sell opiates? Are opiated still needed/critical to US Healthcare?
NO!
BIG Consolidation period: 4 Years (2014-2018)
The First CYCLE WAVE Completed.
Now, in the middle of the SECOND WAVE (Correction)
Key Levels for Retrace: 1, 1.382, & 1.618
Look for retrace back to around $13.00 ENDP
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Most Recent News:
Endo International Plc (ENDP) on Wednesday said it is lifting a temporary stay of its litigation against the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that seeks a declaration the agency's interim policy on compounding using bulk drug substances is contrary to law.
Endo International Plc (ENDP) on Wednesday said it is lifting a temporary stay of its litigation against the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that seeks a declaration the agency's interim policy on compounding using bulk drug substances is contrary to law.
Analysts at RBC Capital upgraded Endo International PLC (NASDAQ:ENDP) from Sector Perform to Outperform. Endo shares rose 2.56 percent to $16.05 in pre-market trading.
Will update.
-Stay humble America,
-AB
Pharmaceuticals
MYL: wedge about to be completed$MYL: Bullish wedge is about to be completed as yesterday we have seen rising bullish pressure, actually price wasn't able to break out the upper edge and we have seen a sharp intraday pullback (about 3%). Today buyers are coming in, thus price is heading upper edge. Volumes are rising, MACD on a weekly basis turn positive. Test of mid and long term support as previously described positive too. Target prices highlighted in blue.
Novartis almost a buyPharmaceutical stocks represents a defensive asset when a positive market cycle is about to finish or when it is foreseen a cycle less positive than the previous one. In such context pharma stocks should have an advantage because of inelastic demand for such goods.
Novartis ($NVS,$NOVN) is one of the candidate to break up as the price is moving in a triangle since 2015. the stock doesn't not have an high volatility as other stocks but is one of the main represented of INDEX STOCK HEALTH CARE. There are nice technical indications on the chart that a breakout might happen in the next weeks. At the moment I am expecting a price pullback, where at the end it will be possible to go for an entry long.
Conclusions
At the moment price is consolidating and some other days to reduce RSI value will be needed. It's possible either to open positions at the end of the pullback or when price breaks out the downtrend (2015). Possibility to have it in CHF or $.
($VRTX) Vertex: a buy only after a break outVertex has consolidating the price in a bullish wedge. A key resistence zone is at 178.57, a break out of such edge is interesting because it might pull up the price toward new high records. Stock is under the radar
($celg) Celgene: not so fastCelgene helped by the company's buyback has turned positive after a complicated year. Despite this in terms of foundamentals two drugs are on the way to be developped but such developments will be revealed in the next year so patient is a must for those who wants to invest of something concreate. On a technical point of view yesterday price faild to cross MA 200. This is an importante resistence and a tp for those who bought shares in the last weeks as the RSI is overbought, thus a little pullback is expected in the next days.
Levels to watch are the followings as reported: 89.20, 86.27.
MYL first signs of strenght for Mylan nice occasionsin the chart I highlighted the last bounce from the "hystorical support" at 35,40 dollars. I drew also the main downtrend line since 12/2015. This is an interesting point because 2 solid supports pass thorugh it and price is conferming this bullish area. Earnings are expected to come in two weeks but in any case this is a tempting occasion to go long with tight SL slighlty under 35,40 dollars.
BHC Bausch Health: possible opportunity in the next daysAlthough earnings are releasing next week, the today's session for $BHC will be critical: a trend inversion might be possible on a daily basis, yesterday price formed a dragon fly bullish as the arrow shows.
This must be confirmed with a black (green) candle today in order to develop minimum of swing, otherwise there will be no signs for an inversion in the short term.
Ground seems to be ready even because RSI (oscillator) is near the range of 30-40 which means that it is charged enough to support a bullish trend.
Conclusions
For aggressive traders entry long might be done today with tight SL. Price actually flows over a solid support around 21.50 dollars.
For conservative traders: watch and wait at least today.
Alexion waiting for pull back and second entry($ALXN) I have already flagged up alexion when price was around 112-115 dollars saying there was a good opportunity for an entry long.
Recently we have had an important sign because the price broke the hystorical downtrend since july 2015. We had some indicators overbought but thank to this pullback we can wait for a second entry long position.
A suitable level would be around 128 dollars whilst another one would be around 124.
I keep an eye pealed on MACD because last candle was quite dramatic so when the indicator turns toward the bullish mode in conjunction with the level mentioned above, It will be possible to open a long position.
Celgene ($celg) if tomorrow...if only tomorrow....Weekly chart: we have the downtrend channel clearly defined on a weekly basis. On a monthly basis we have already had a minimum of swing with a dragon fly bullish, on a daily chart some signs of an incoming uptrend as described in the latest posts...but tomorrow...tomorrow is where we play the game with the last resistence in place at 86.72 dollars. Once we get out of the channel and we leave this solid resistance it will mean that Celgene will be ready to come back to war.
I will be long in case the price breaks such thresold because signs of long will get really clear.
TEVA is recharging the battery waiting next earnings release ($TEVA) was accelerating the uptrend but since some days it has come back on its path inside a bullish flag. It is important to note that next week earnings will be released so high volatility should be expected. Masch is about to turn on bullish mode RSI is quite down and vortex is neutral.
I might expect that some investors will get long before the earnings pushing the price up but it is just an hypothesis. So far we are still inside the range with lower and upper edges showed on the chart.
LONG TERM LONG ON OTSUKA PHARMA!I will not go into details on this one. Bottom line is, I am impressed with Otsuka's vision and its recent developments - and many other things which I will not explain here. I will be entering a long position soon, watching the action at these levels. This is will be one of the stocks I would recommend to add to your stocks portfolio.
-Keep it Real-
Alexion (AXLN): new entry longTime to raise up the head has come for ALexion pharmaceuticals. After some years in a trading range and a never ending downtrend since 2015 (black line) price has broken it up reaching recently 135.87 dollars. As showned in the graph we have an important technical signal which is the cross between MA 50 and MA 200. We have also the RSI confirming tghe momentum and an entry buy from vortex.
Volume is neither low nor high but enough to confirm the uptrend, given trendlines and the mix of the other indicators. Price has borken the dynamic resistence at 128.41, the short term trading range YTD.
Biogen Earnings Swing July 2018Biogen's (344.10 at close at the date of this writing) and Eisai's recent success with BAN24O1, an experimental medication for Alzheimer's which is currently in mid-stage clinical trials, in addition to a recent price target raise by Citi, and overall bullish analyst sentiment led to a rally between July 6-9, 2018.
Although the clinical trial's success was certainly reason for bullish sentiment, it ran too far too fast and indicators pointed towards to a sell off. I thus opened put options on July 9, expiring July 13 2018 (currently in the money). We are now only about two weeks away from Biogen's earning report. After studying historical data and charts, I've found that there is often a sell off prior to earnings OR there is a run up then a slight sell off right before the earnings date. I've annotated the chart with periods that indicate this.
In this case, I believe downward momentum will continue followed by a slight rally pre-earnings then a sell off. Opening JUL20 puts may be a smart move at this time.
In the long term, Biogen -0.21% is very scalable and overall is very promising. I agree with Citi's PT of 371.
www.wsj.com
Playing the gap with pharmaceuticals, Lipocine Inc (LPCN)Pharmaceuticals can take nasty falls if their products fail to pass FDA muster. These falls can provide nice opportunities for swing traders to play the gaps that are left by these sharp moves of price action. Lipocine Inc (LPCN) took a nasty dive on the 8th of May, leaving behind a pretty nice 31% gap that will eventually get filled. Since the drop, LPCN has formed a textbook ascending wedge in it's current longer term bearish downtrend, signaling higher prices in the short term. If this wedge continues to hold through it's formation, the gap will be filled where the top of the wedge and the top of the gap intersect (A). Because the ascending wedge is a bearish continuation in an overall downtrend, the price will eventually fall back down (B). However it is also a good possibility that LPCN will fall out of it's wedge before it even fills the gap completely, as price action on average tends to break out ~60% of the way into the wedge, which is well before the gap fill (A).
Celgene is under the radarCelg is under the radar because after an insane downtrend, calm and a bit of optimism is getting back. Price is consolidating in a narrow range and on friday we have seen a first endeavour to break the flag with no success. This has happend because MA 50 has acted like a resistence.
If the price breaks the wall of 80/80.50 with momentum I expect a new buy long with a new uptrend. As showed price has never tried to under 74 dollars since several weeks, plus volatility is really squeezed. I will carefully watch the graph along the next weeks (watch and wait).
TEVA up trend is acceleratingAs showed in the picture trend is accelerating as a sign of streght for TEVA. After some consolidation pauses we have a situation where RSI in pointing up, MACD non really clear as we have had a lateral movement, volatility stop positive.
Red trendline is showing the acceleration. TP around 27 first and 30 dollars after. Despite some up and down of nasdaq, Teva has held the hit continuing the lateral movement rather than going down, another sign of strenght at the moment.
GlaxoSmithKline ShortShort from $42.01.
- Market Cap: $102B
- Beta: 0.83
- P/B: 20.42
- GSK’s consumer healthcare segment sales were down in 2017 due to a slowdown in global growth of its key consumer categories.
- They have also faced pricing pressure from competition and slow down in emerging markets. Although GSK have several candidates in different stages of development, the company has been set back on numerous occasions by the regulators. The largest setbacks in the past few quarters include the phase 3 data on chronic coronary heart disease, Duchenne muscular dystrophy candidate, kydrisa failing to meet the primary end point in a phase 3 study.
- The company phases massive competition from small start-ups to large pharmaceutical corporations. There consumer healthcare segment faces competition from big companies like Johnson & Johnson, Colgate Palmolive, Procter & Gamble and Pfizer.
- Advair, one of GSK’s largest revenue providers is facing intense competition in the asthma and COPD market from AstraZeneca and Merck respiratory drugs.
NeroTree Capital rates GlaxoSmithKline PLC as a SELL with a price target of $38.
$TEVA - Berkshire breakout? Disclaimer, TEVA is in a very bad financial position, with dwindling cashflows and large debt. Buffet has always been the king of "value investing", hence why a position in Teva isn't surprising from him - it's most likely that he sees the company as severely undervalued and is entering into stages of repair.
Buffet's new position in Teva was widely publicised this week:
fortune.com
markets.businessinsider.com
finance.yahoo.com
Just after Buffet disclosed the position, Teva announced the U.S. release of the QVAR Redihaler Inhalation Aerosol.
www.streetinsider.com
-new form of asthma inhalation treatment
-breath actuated
I don't think this is too important. I'd much rather to follow his other position into AAPL rather than TEVA
Dechra Pharmaceuticals Fake-BreakoutLast post: June 3rd. See chart .
Review: Price was approaching the resistance level.
Update: Since the last post, price broke above the resistance level but has failed to stay there and has now fallen back below that level. The breakout was a fake breakout.
Conclusion: We need price to break the resistance level again and stay above it before looking for trading opportunities.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Dechra Pharmaceuticals Looks Set To Breakout SoonLast post: Feb 28th. See chart .
Review: Price had broken a resistance level with a strong move to the upside.
Update: Price continued to trend higher but is now in a period of consolidation.
Conclusion: We will be waiting for a breakout of the resistance of the consolidation zone before considering a trade.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
ABBV - when having all your eggs in one basket works outAbbVie's bread winner is Humira - this drug accounts for the majority of their revenue. However, they did forecast that by 2020, revenue from Humira will be $21B - which is about 75% of their 2017 revenue of $28.22B.
Since AbbVie depends so heavily on their flagship, their stock is fairly volatile, giving this play more of a risk. Consider well-hedged positions (like married puts), or at least ITM leap calls.
Small Pharma Big Backers and Partners - LONG SNG (Synairgen)Prudent Drug Discovery Company
Low market cap ( appox £13m at time of writing ).
Issues shares very rarely ( last placing nearly four years ago ).
Has material interest in its work from larger partners ( Pharmaxis ).
Sold interest in LOXL2 programme for £5m to Pharmaxis in December.
Pharmaxis continues to fund and develop LOXL2 inhibitors and Synairgen retains interest across all fibrotic indications at circa 17% of all partnering proceeds.
Potential of drug appears across multiple uses now ( not just lung-related ) and indications from Pharmaxis looking very good.
Recent interviews from Pharmaxis management suggest a good chance of a deal with major pharma in H2.
Low free float in the stock ( 60% in hands of major shareholders ).
Major funds holding ( Woodford Investment Management and Lansdowne Partners ).
High profile investors holding stakes ( Richard Griffiths and Leonard Licht ).
These high profile investors have been raising, rather than reducing their stakes in the company, periodically.
For a risky smallcap biotech stock it appears well placed to survive and thrive, regardless of the short term success of a sale/licencing deal of LOXL2 by Pharmaxis, making it considerably less risky than most biotech stocks in the long term. However, the indications and noises being made about LOXL2 by Pharmaxis are looking as positive as you could hope for, and backed up by them putting their money where their mouth is in the first place and increasing their stake for cash.
Teva is now a buyAfter a couple of years where price has persistently followed the downtrend, last week Teva broke up such dynamic hreshold. Price has confirmed such trendline with a hammer 3 days ago at 17.04 dollars. Moreover we have the cross on the daily pattern between MA 50 and MA 200 turning to bullish set-up. Q1 earnings has been released beating expectations. SAR is positive and supertrend recently turned into bullish conformation as well. Trump is due to talk about drug prices this week but I don't deem Teva will be harshly impacted, because of the type of business. On a daily basis the hammer of three days ago confirmed by two green candles bear witness to a short term reversal. TP around 21.50/21.80
