Bitcoin Extreme Scenarios - realized path will be somewhere w/inA lot going on here, main takeaway is these are the extremes of what to expect going forward.
Methods used :
- harmonic patterns
- wolfe waves
- control charts (I built my own stability motoring/anomaly detection model in R)
- time series analysis (its a random walk, it really is)
General Expectation s: Expecting near-term bounce to 47k-53k by early May (there could be a small drop early next week to 36-38k before starting run to upper 40s), followed by drop to around 30k by late summer. From 30k there will be a retest of 40k and decision there will confirm if recent range has been accumulation or re-distribution - if it continues above 40k and shows SoS above 50k (confirmation of accumulation) then it is mathematically possible to run to new highs (particularly in the 70-75k) range by end of 2022; however, a rejection at 40k after bouncing from 30k would be the SoS confirmation of re-distribution and it would start a nasty drop to around 23k.
Chart Description :
- As the title indicates, this is intended to demonstrate possible paths BTC could take from here - these are most extreme paths so actual path should be expected to fall within green and red projections
- the methods used I made notes on chart but if you have any questions/corrections/objections I'll reply to comments
~ RED Trajectory = most extreme bearish case. If the beginning of this plays out I would expect it to bottom before 13k, likely 19-23k would be bounce zone
~ GREEN Trajectory = most extreme bullish case. Look at MRNA chart back in early 2021 (Jan-March) and notice similarities with BTC from early 2021 until current. MRNA had a smaller periodicity, no doubt accelerated by Covid-related factors/intentions, but MRNA in Mar 2021 was very similar to where BTC is now. Based on the actual structure of BTC void of the MRNA comparative speculation (i.e. based on the maths) I actually think the realized path of BTC will be closer to this bullish extreme - i.e. new highs by end of year
~~~ the black trajectory is a theoretically possible yet very extreme middle ground where BTC gets trapped in a converging vortex around 42k and perpetually stabilizes at that value. At that point time would actually become bi-lateral and the past and future of all time would coincide at a crypto event horizon... only Elon Musk would be able to escape this fate... lmao
Obviously not financial advice because I didn't discuss anything financially plausible nor did I advise. Bless you all, lmk your thoughts.
Physics
Reading dialouge between Price and Space Whales have accumulated around 6200. Unlikely to dump their inventory as it would result in price coming back down to the previous range. I expect a breakout Past major resistance. Break Out Traders will push price higher causing massive retail Fomo. Whales who bought at 6200 will distribute at top of previous range. Price unlikely to break 10,000.
Headline: Ethereum Betrays Arrow of Time, Physics What is the Arrow of time: "the fact that the past is different from the future. We remember the past but we don’t remember the future. There are irreversible processes. There are things that happen, like you turn an egg into an omelet, but you can’t turn an omelet into an egg.
And we sort of understand that halfway. The arrow of time is based on ideas that go back to Ludwig Boltzmann, an Austrian physicist in the 1870s. He figured out this thing called entropy. Entropy is just a measure of how disorderly things are. And it tends to grow. That’s the second law of thermodynamics: Entropy goes up with time, things become more disorderly. So, if you neatly stack papers on your desk, and you walk away, you’re not surprised they turn into a mess. You’d be very surprised if a mess turned into neatly stacked papers. That’s entropy and the arrow of time. Entropy goes up as it becomes messier." Sean Carroll (theoretical physicist at Caltech)
How did Ethereum Betray the Arrow of Time
Ethereum turned back time on the DAO attack. While it may be nice to think about a world where we can turn back time and simply hit undo the ramifications of our actions are real they play an import role in our experience of the world, our sense of morality and community. The whole process in all directions as far as we can extend our sights into the depths of space is based on the passing of time. To betray the simple principle of the passing of time and its finality means that Ethereum has betrayed physics and our understanding of how every part of the universe behaves.
Why this actually makes Ethereum Useless
Ethereum use cases are mostly a huge liability for the network and token holders. Some think that implementation of Fiat currencies or Amazon dollars that use Ethereum will make its value go up however I think it would be a very short time before we saw situations similar to the DAO attack. How can Ethereum be used to represent Gold or Real Estate if those things which cannot be physically reversed in time can be digitally reversed in time. Nobody wants to go to the bank to find out their transactions have been reversed. A smart contract is supposed to be a promise, the DAO was supposed to be a promise but it got broken. Friends dont break their promises.
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