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Is it possible that the Pi Cycle indicator doesn't trigger? #CTMUsing the Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low indicator, I have a really rough estimate at whether the indicator may cross before the end of the year. Don't look for advice here, or science, or even well rounded Math - this is strictly an artistic look at whether price could cause the moving averages to cross. If you find the thought process entertaining, leave a like, and if you don't, share your own publication with me that explains your point of view. If you want more scientific analysis, search for jclcapital and #CTM on Twitter. They do much more cleverer work than me.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by NoCreditsLeft
12
BTC Consolidation... Then off to the moon! Bitcoin is consolidating at the same price range as it did back in January. Once we broke that STRONG Resistance, it flipped to Support while BTC Ranged up. Now that same critical level is back to being a Resistance Area. The longer a coin/token consolidates, the stronger the Breakout will be. Think of it as a wall, and the more times we hit it in a short period, the more likely it is to break. Right now, Bitcoin is coiling up, ready to strike. The bulls stepped in with force and held the line $29,500. If you are newer to crypto and just got into the market this year, then you've only experienced up, and this is your first significant drop. You won't ever forget this, I'm sure of it. Take the lessons presented during these events and forge them into your psyche as they will continue to benefit you over and over the longer, you stay in this market. Remember, the market must cause the most amount of people the maximum amount of pain. When you invest and pull a 2-3X, take your initial $ out of the position. Always cover your ass and manage your risk. For now, we stay range-bound from $30k-$42k. We are in no way out of the woods just yet, but we dodged a massive nuke in the market. Depending on what your strategy is, continue to DCA into BTC and strong adults. It's not about timing the market; it's about TIME IN THE MARKET.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by PlanDeFi
BTC topped ? indicators say so...In the previous cycles, whenever the pi-cycle indicators crossed we always had a top and a start of the bear market (or a correction at least), will this time be different ? If this is an actual top, then bitcoin will start to move down and we caught the top to short, If " this time is different " then bitcoin might(or not) have some correction and continuation upward, the top cycle indicator probably alerted many people to close some of their positions, so at least a correction might be on the way. I am cautiously shorting with a stop-loss that I am ready to lose in case I am wrong and we are in a " this time is different " case.. Trade safely :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by non-hop
4
BTC Pi Cycle Top Indicator Signal.The Pi Cycle Top Indicator as created by Philip Swift has caught the eye of many traders and analysts (Including myself) as a possible tool to "call the top" of this market cycle. It is giving the "Signal" now, so should I automatically sell as it has always been a good idea previously to sell when the signal is given?? I would say that we can disregard the Pi Cycle Top signal in this case for the following reasons. All other Momentum Oscillators and Volatility metrics were giving obvious highs at each of the previous signals. This time the setup is distinctly different on both volatility metrics and on momentum oscillators, with most volatility metrics being close to their lows, and momentum oscillators hovering just slightly above their midlines. Personally (this is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor) I will be completely disregarding the Pi Cycle Top signal as a consequence. I am interpreting the momentum oscillators coming back down near their midlines as a "Bullish reset" giving them room to run to the upside and volatility dropping near its lows as giving room to expand. I will remain bullish on Bitcoin until I see momentum oscillators breaking below their midlines or an obvious higher Timeframe reversal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by The_Caretaker
19
Pi Cylce Top Bitcoin is INVALID for this bull cycle!!Welcome everybody, My name is Rutger and today i want to discuss the Pi Cycle Top indicator. I think that the Pi cycle top indicator does not work in this bull run. Because this time is really different than other bull cycles, it is never good to say that this time is different, but I will show you why it is really different this bull cycle. First of all bitcoin balance of exchange is dropping very hard, that is a very bullish sign. We usually see that when the balance on exchanges move up, we reach the end of the Bull market. The opposite is happening right now. Secondly when we look into the charts we can see that everytime the Pi Cycle Top crossed, it was in the red area of the log growth curves indicator. As you can see on the chart, we are not even close yet. ( in 2013 we also did not hit the red area of the log growth curves for the first peak cycle top. But it did HIT the 96 RSI level ). The third thing is, that always when the Pi Cycle Top crossed we were at the 96 RSI level. This time we are in the purple zone not overbought not oversold. Also this bull cycle has been crazy so far with institutions buying and big companies like Tesla and Microstrategy buying. Bitcoin is now for the first time a $1 trillion dollar asset. Which means that big investing company's are also allowed to buy bitcoin. So with all these fundamentals + Technical analyses. I think the Pi cycle top is not valid this time. What do you guys think, let me know below! Please like this post so we can get a lot of different people to look at this and discuss this further.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Rutgercrypto
7
BTC Long-Term Analysis: The Pi Cycle TopI came across a very interesting theory that I've been researching and charting. Created by Philip Swift, The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days. It uses the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350-day moving average, the 350DMA x 2. For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking. It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number. It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. Though in this instance it does so with a high degree of accuracy over the past 7 years. The Pi Cycle top has been very effective in marking the Tops of Bitcoin markets, and I'll be updating you all when the MA's cross and we have the next cycle top, which is probably a good time to take some profits. Good luck 👍
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by jonnyquest
DownTheRabbitHole indicatorAn in depth explination on how to use the indicator. Included in the indicator... Pi cycle top indicator with flag 350 day Fib multiplier channel levels 20, 50, 100, 200 EMA experimental fib fraction level multipliers NOTE! Do not reply to any emails from me asking you for money for any investment opportunities. Cheer credits are appreciated (but not expected) to keep ads away from my charting videos. We are all here to help each other grow, not scam and rob each other. Leave that garbage to Wallstreet. I am not a professional and do not provide financial advice. I am as green as you. I do not charge money for anything. I am a horrible teacher and do not tutor on the side. I am 100% wrong all the time. Trade Safe~
BNC:BLXEducation
by mnovo
17
BTC: Pi Cycle, Log Growth, NVT and OBV primedGreetings! Bitcoin looks like it is primed for a final leg of its parabolic move based on a series of indicators which would suggest that alts will be topping in the months afterwards. Log Growth Curves by quantadelic These curves were based on calculations made in October of 2019 and so far have done a really good job of informing users on price action. The script is available but since I am a pine muggle I don't know how to update the data. None-the-less I have identified the fib-channels to either side of the 50% baseline as especially important for suggesting when big moves are going to occur. The purple box shows when the 61.8 level is exceeded and then tested as support BTC price action is right now in the process of confirming the level as support. It looks clearer on the weekly chart on the 3 day chart below. A view of the BLX ticker shows a wider view and shows that rejections at the 61.8 level have happened and been the cause of a major contraction. Pi Cycle Created by Philip Swift and popularized by www.lookintobitcoin.com Per Look Into Bitcoin The pi cycle top indicator goes back to April of 2019 and so it is another backwards looking indicator we are trying to use for the next top. A preliminary look at the main chart shows that once the 61.8 level is confirmed as support then shortly thereafter the pi-cylce flashes its top. The convergence of the two EMAs likewise looks very similar and so once again I think we will be flashing a topping signal in the next 4-6 weeks. On Balance Volume (with EMAs) By Mattzab This is one of my favorite indicators and I have pared it down to just the On Balance Volume and the 100 EMA. At our last market top we saw that OBV started to trend sideways and oscillate around the 100 EMA. The most important thing is the top of the box that was resistance to the OBV but price action was trending upward and setting higher highs. This technical double top sets up bearish divergence and is generally not a good thing. This time around we don't see the OBV oscillating around the 100 EMA and the resistance lasted longer the last go around. We do see two contacts on the top of the current box and I suspect when we get our break out we will again have a blow off top. The higher low on the OBV looks like an ascending triangle, but I am not sure we should be closing our positions just because the OBV reached its target. NVT by aamonkey There are a couple of NVTs out there, but I particularly like this one. It works on both the daily and weekly depending on your choice of timeframe and how much you want to be babying your trade. A look at our last top shows we can go from the middle of the yellow zone to the red zone where the sell signals occur. The weekly chart shows that we are flirting with eloping from the red zone of the ribbon which is why I will definitely not be holding on much longer should the daily NVT flash red. By the time the the weekly NVT falls into the yellow zone the bear trap is near complete. Which is fine if you used the green zone as a buy signal. Stock to Flow By yomofoV Historically price action has had lots of over-performance on the stock to flow but that over-performance has been reduced time over time. I myself have hoped for massive over-performance but I just don't see it happening this time around. This final bit is important. Below in blue is the weekly bollinger band top and baseline. The green is the TOP of the monthly BB. The bottoms are not shown because parabolic moves distort the bottom of the chart as the lower edge goes below zero. The baseline of the weekly is roughly the top of the monthly BB. Trying to buy the dip under these conditions is very risky because you could be looking for a bounce of the 20 week SMA and get a fist full of losses. One way you will be able to tell that the next bear season is upon us is the monthly bollinger bands assert themselves. We don't know the day or the hour but mathematically it has to happen as 95% of the price actin on the monthly chart has to occur within the monthly BB. My personal Battle Plan I am going to grab as much gains as I can in my preferred alts. I think that Dapp coins will top after BTC and then the currency coins, like Bitcoin Cash, Monero, Dash, etc will top after the Dapps but that is intuition right now. There are are going to be some honeybadgers out there like Link was the last bear market which was basically done bottoming out in months and just ravaged market share but we won't know what the honeybadgers are until they start to ravage, and most people will be in disbelief. An appeal If you find this worthwhile show it to some crypto-muggles you may know which may be unprepared for the upcoming move as well as the upcoming bear market. BTC loses 80% of its value all the times and a lot of the tools shown here can stop our friends from losing a lot of money if they are looking for a break of $100k as a buy signal when some of these other indicators are flashing sell signals.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
2
BTC is nearing its end cycle. Pi Cycle Indicators BTC is nearing its end. Either we fail at the local .702 retrace and fall into a deeper short time frame correction and reset this Pi Cycle indicator a bit, or we go for a blow off top. If we continue to climb here without any major corrections we should see the end of the BTC move and we will enter another bear market. I believe as we reach this blowoff top money will flow from BTC into alt coins. I suggest you get in position soon as the ROI for BTC is done. This is NOT financial advise, but the chart does NOT lie. For the new traders out there, I will keep it simple. When those two green and orange lines cross, the top of Bitcoin is in. Another Idea is this fractal of 2013 repeats, where we get a blow off top indicator twice. Similar in 2013 we had the first top in April 2013, followed by a retrace for a few months, then a push to another Pi Cycle top. This is possible. What we see after that is a very long bear market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoFutureLA
3
Battle Planning: What if Bitcoin Double Tops?The trend has obviously been up and bullish but the chance of a double top remains real until it has passed. There have been many times over my trading career where I did both a bullish and bearish scenario "just in case" and was biased in the wrong direction for my initial position. Sometimes I did a good job switching my trades and some times not. But really, having a plan either way is good and knowing what will trigger deliberate action is very good. Personally I have closed my margin long positions on link end eth while I watch this develop and I have taken a small ethusd short that should keep my account balance roughly flat no matter which way the market goes. Additionally you see the X I like to use on a lot of price action to see trend lines flipping support and resistance. Null Hypothesis The long term trend continues and price action keeps going up. My ETHUSD short keeps my account stable in USD terms and I close the trade and look for margin long entries. Scenario 1 Price action dips to the black trend line some 20% and support is found with volume. This sets up BTC to go to new all time high and when I close my ETHUSD short and shovel the usd into my prefered alts. Scenario 2 Price breaks the black trend line. I add to my ETHUSD short and plan to close in the target area around the previous ATH. The target is set by two critera: the hight of the valley between the peaks of the double top as shown by the black line, and the area of activity prior to the break out. That purble zone contains the top of the value area on the VPVR and in intense bull markets the price action retests this area constantly. Scenario 3 Price goes sideways. Least likely off all scenarios. Long term Concerns The chart below is BTCUSD with my long term top indicators. The Bitcoin Log Growth Curves are divided into sub-channels and I find the activity around the midline (76.39 and 38.20%) play a special role as support and resistance as levels and as a zone. A break of this double top would take us very probably to the 23.61% level at about $22.3k Second concern is the Pi cycle. This is suppose to call the tops on the daily chart and some tinkering shows it does this on several assets besides bitcoin and there are some decent signals for local tops. Below we can see on the 3 day chart it predicted an area of consolidation for BTC and on XPRUSD it nearly predicted the first ATH in 2017 and did call the high in the beginning of 2018. With the signal flashing on the above chart on the weekly this might be tagging a local high. Of course this is not the intended use of the indicator but it is still something scratching at the back of my head. My final long term concern is the Net Value Transactions with these ribbons to provide easy to read detail. The only time we have enough chart history before to look at on the weekly chart that had the NVT pop out the top of the red ribbon was before the great dump of 2017 with our Christmas and New Years massacre. Being out of the ribbon is concerning enough, but there is a real probability that the NVT turns back to yellow and we dump in a big way. It sounds cataclysmic but that has to be part of the battle plan because it is a big signal used by the heavy hitters. And the fact remains that on the daily, 3d and weekly every time the NVT has crossed the barrier from red to yellow we have traded lower. Lots of people don't like calls like "it might go up, and it might go down" but trying to forecast how it might go up or down is what we are trying to do.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
9