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Picycletop

Post Election Bitcoin and Crypto Market UpdateThis is a shorter version of my video yesterday, just recapping what I've been seeing and forecasting in these markets. Didn't expect to see the rally to new ATH so quickly. Or the DXY to push up higher at the same time... But here we are breaking and apparently holding new ATH, so I do think we continue to push higher. Even if we get one more sell off, to re-test the ATH as support. Yesterday's pump was part short-squeeze, and part SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B in BTC ETF inflows. In this video we look at BTC and SOL, which I believe will lead the next leg of the Bull. Also an interesting speculative study on the Pi Cycle Top, and the idea we could see a double top or dual-cycle in the next 12 months, like we did in 2013. As well as recapping why my targets are $100k (conservative), $150k (base case), and $200k (aggressive) along with confluent targets based on measured moves from the Bull Flag breakout. Let me know what you think, and if I missed anything! Brett
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BrettFogle
BTCUSD: Time for a correctionOutlook for the remainder of the year. The ETF inflows have generally remained positive at new ATH levels, while volume remains low and price remains flat. This suggests considerable distribution from OTC sellers, namely longer-term holders, per HODL waves analysis. It's been 3 months since breaking ATH in March, with price unable to move higher. The consolidation at higher levels remains bullish until $60K is broken to the downside (foodgates moment), which would confirm the current range ($60K-70K) as longer-term distribution, rather than accumulation. First stop will likely be a re-test of the 50 Week MA around $50K after the floodgates for selling opens below $60K. With relatively low accumulation volume, I'm not expecting it to hold as support, but instead return to the 200 Week MA around $40K, likely after a re-test of previous support in order to confirm it as new resistance (around $60K). The 20 Week MA is currently around $63K, so below this level, there will already likely be an increase in selling pressure. The Weekly RSI is otherwise facing rejection from overbought levels >70, similar to late 2021 (minus the strong bearish divergence back then). The culmination of breaking the 20 WMA and confirming RSI rejection by returning to $60K, would be the catalyst for the break of support. As also noted (N.B.) the Mid Pi Cycle Top occurred in march, around $68K-$70K, with price unable to maintain the momentum above this rising MA multiplier, unlike in December 2020 at $21K.(1) The post-halving "Miner Capitulation" has also been signalled by Hash Ribbons indicator, not so dissimilar to summer 2020 that encouraged consolidation and a miner correction.(2) I'm not particularly expecting Path B to play out, unless there is a catalyst for a more full-blown capitulation, leading to a 65% haircut in price. Examples include ETF holders getting cold feet leading to panic as price goes below opening ETF prices , or otherwise some negative regulatory news. A -45% move down to $40K should otherwise be more then sufficient to build up momentum for a 2025 bull market reaching $100K+. Should price reach GETTEX:25K to $30K levels (path B), there could be a "delay" within the usual cycle, with higher parabolic prices nearer to $200K. After the 3x from 2017 to 2021 ATH, 2x seems reasonable in 2025 however ~$138K. (1) www.lookintobitcoin.com (2) capriole.com
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dragononcrypto
What is Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator?Hi folks, 🎯In this content, we will explore the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator and how it can be used. 🎯The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days. It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350-day moving average, the 350DMA x 2. Note: The multiple is of the price values of the 350DMA, not the number of days. 🎯For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking. It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number. This once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. However, in this instance, it does so with a high degree of accuracy over the past 7 years. 🎯Let's take a look at how the Pi Cycle Top, which helps us find the previous peak of Bitcoin, has performed in the past. 📌Yellow Trend --> 111DMA Green Trend --> 350DMA 📌As of April 2021, our indicator intersected with the 111DMA and 350DMA, and a peak signal was given at 63K. Bitcoin, then experienced a deep sell-off, falling to 29,000. 📌However, there are two important points to note. Whenever Bitcoin's price movement falls below the 111DMA, it has been exposed to selling pressure. In addition, whenever it manages to maintain a sustained move above the 111DMA, a rise called a "relief rally" begins. 📌So, when did the bull come, or when will it come? Whenever we witness Bitcoin's price above the 350DMA, for example, in December 2020, a serious bull run begins (you can also check previous periods). With the movement starting in December 2020, Bitcoin has experienced over 250% rise. 🎯Neither on-chain data nor technical data alone is sufficient to understand the price movement of any product. However, if we correctly interpret the indicator mentioned here, we can reduce our risk ratio. See you in the next informative content.👋🏻👋🏻
Education
by Bullfighterr
5
Follow Up BTC Double Pi Cycle Top 2022??See my previous Idea for the beginning of this thought process... If BTC would Double Pi Cycle Top this time it would probably be a longer time between tops BTC dropped 50% in 14 bars/weeks so far this time... Top to Top was 35 weeks in 2013-14 and 4.5X This time I gave it 55 weeks , not quite double and a 4X to $260K the chart is in log Scale so boxes mark a Log price point This is possible wilth-in the time frames Next Pi Cycle Top in April-May 2022 I'll save this chart and re-visit as time goes along..
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chefrusty
New Pi Cycle Top Indicator From MamoCoin(Republishing my share on Mamocoin's new pi cycle top indicator, as I forgot TW's House Rules and included a youtube link.) I just wanted to share a new pi cycle top indicator created by www.tradingview.com I made some very minor changes to it in order to also identify BTCUSD's 1st peak in what I call the Consolidation Phase, but the original indicator is completely on Mamocoin. This is the link to his analysis where he shared it. It's obvious that he put in a lot of hard work into it, and it is a very impressive indicator. Thanks very much, Mamo!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AlphaBravoCharlie77
Power of 3 VS Pi3hr bitcoin using modified Pi cycle top. Pi cycle top seems like an interesting theory so I decided to put it up against some Power of 3. Check out those gap ups/downs I highlighted when crossing over the 222 MA. Holding the 222ma of the 3hr will be important test of this pi cycle is tops or flops. Short term I'm bearish until a bounce or 2 on this 222ma. I'm yellen timber on Dow Jones with Cookie Monster here. I can see a pull back on bitcoin until a Blow Off Top occurs on Dow and the S&P then bitcoin will probable hit the 70s-80s +. See what happened with TSLA today. shorts covering ran up the price . Not financial advice. I'm right 3 times the Pi.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SPYvsGME
If The Next Pi-Cycle-Top Triggers ... SELL!According to "2-Year Moving Average Multiplier" it is not unlikely to get a 2nd "Pi Cycle Top" this year (maybe), like in 2013. With reference to BITCOIN The Golden 51%-49% Ratio! 600 days of Bull Market left! top will be end of September 2021. I think it will be end of 2021, The CBBI-Confidence Index was 100 at the top in November 2013 and at the top in December 2017 but was only 76 at the top in April 2021. You can check this amazing multi-indicators index at cbbi.info . In the next 4 weeks we should see if we will switch to bear-market for one year or stay in a bull-market for the next 1 to 4 month. Both are serious options to consider. If you are bullish. He is Legend: If you are bearish. He is the one for you He protected my investments in May 2021 at a time everone was moon with this idea:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by xdeltax
3
PI CYCLE TOP (2021 ATH) BEARISH PENNANT PATTERN (BTC)FIRST OF ALL, please do me a favor and tap that like button or even leave a comment on what you think of my technical analysis I've posted for the trading community! 👍 SEOND OF ALL, bearish pennants are continuation patterns that mark a pause in the movement of a price halfway through a strong downtrend. They occur just after a sharp drop in price and resemble a triangular flag as the price moves sideways, making gradually lower highs and higher lows. LASTLY, stay safe and have a great weekend! (we can nuke below $30,000 whenever whales decide to press the sell button so please be cautious this weekend and next week)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by YurloTrades
2
PI CYCLE TOP DOES IT AGAIN (2017 ATH & 2021 ATH) BEARISH (BTC)Good afternoon traders, FIRST OF ALL, please smash that like button for the continued alpha I'm deciding to share with the trading/crypto community! 👍 SECOND OF ALL, can we just take a moment to look at this technical analysis I've posted for the tradingview community..... 2017 AND 2021 PI CYCLE TOP DOES IT AGAIN? LASTLY, my last post explained my bias towards the market and my bearish target for the bearish pennant is between $17,000 - $23,000 (the previous all time high is $20,000. Anything below $20,000 is a confirmed bear market and probably takes us to the 200 day moving average on the weekly timeframe which is around $10,000- $13,000 (I'm not trying to call exact tops or bottoms) so anywhere in this range would confirm this TA and my previous one. FINALLY, don't forget to smash that like button and leave a comment with how you feel about this technical analysis as it helps spread the word around the community especially for new traders trying to make sense of these crazy markets! 👍
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by YurloTrades
8
BTC Bearish Logarithmic XACB ButterflyTL:DR One of the most powerful forex patterns is visible on the bitcoin chart, but only on the log scale. Ultra bearish if correct. Intro (a bit blogposty) I am constantly looking for the largest market structure I can find and doing such drives me to expand the number of patterns I can easily recall. The harmonic patterns are the trickiest for me due to all of the internal consistencies. I was looking at the bitcoin price action over and over again when I saw the harmonic butterfly. When you look for the ratios within the default XABC pattern you get the wrong ratios but when you put the chart on log scale and make sure your fib retracements are set to log you get almost perfectly retracement/extension ratios we are looking for. This chart formation has taken over 3 years to develop. It should have some power. More Analysis The main chart is very explanatory of the big picture so we can dive in to some further analysis. My linked comment will detail my rational from earlier on how I think we are in a bull trap. Saves us the time from going over it here. But first lets zoom in on the XABCD structure. On the daily zoom in we can see our tolerances for B an C are very tight. Very comforting for the overall structure. A quirky chart is the 20 day chart which came from my trying to combine some 10 day candle stick formations. Looks pretty bad. Misc (ideas y'all can steal as I don't have the energy to flesh out) The ETHBTC chart is very concerning given the high level of correlation between all crypto. A broadening wedge is a bearish formation and even if price action returns to the base of the wedge ETH takes a hammering against BTC. I would assume that this means that crypto falls victim to the everything bubble but bitcoin recovers first while ETH is still falling. Very tenuous supposition. This chart is a bit busy conceptually, but meh. We have a red ichimoku cloud that has turned red as of several days ago and I have not heard anyone mention it. Curious but I do know so many people are looking at the 4h chart and may miss this. Pi cycle is bearish, that we know and by itself isn't conclusive because this is the first time it is going live. The on balance EMAs takes the default on balance volume and applies EMAs to get an even wider view of trends. The 20 crossing the 100 is a very major bearish sign of persistent selling. Final Thoughts This is all very experimental. We are taking a pattern that I can't verify is suppose to work on the log chart like this. But what I do know is the uptick in volume helps confirm that someone was probably seeing the same thing I did, just a head of me. And this dude had enough BTC to nail in the close. My linked post shows TSLA is in a massive correction. If they and Musk take a loss on BTCUSD the memetic energy into this dump will be incredible. Unlike some people out there, I see some clear indicators that we should not be recklessly long. If this pattern is valid the gold and silver bugs will be crowing victory. BTC is suppose to be currency so it would make sense that a Forex pattern would work. And with Dollar milk shake the last currency standing is suppose to be the dollar and DXY is looking very strong right now while inflation is soaring. Seems easy to think that everyone not in the US will dump BTC to feed themselves.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
26
Pi Cycle Indicator From ScratchHi traders! As you know, BTC has made all time high not so far ago. That’s why we decided to tell you about one of the most powerful indicators that helps traders to recognize the market reverse after peaking. Well, today we’ll speak Pi Cycle Top Indicator . The indicator consists of two Moving averages: 350DMA*2 and 111DMA. In fact, 350/111=3,153 which is really close to Pi=3,142. Probably, it demonstrates the cyclicality of Bitcoin. Moreover, it is confirmed by last 3 cycles of BTC market and all times the indicator gave a signal, trend reversed. How to work with Pi Cycle indicator? When the 111 moving average reaches the 350DMA*2 it means that BTC is on its peak and it’s time to quit the position. However, we’d advice you to use it with other indicators and oscillators, to look for the trend reverse or continuation patterns and so on. DISCLAMER : Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions.
Education
by Skyrexio
17
BTC Pi Cycle Top Indicator Signal.The Pi Cycle Top Indicator as created by Philip Swift has caught the eye of many traders and analysts (Including myself) as a possible tool to "call the top" of this market cycle. It is giving the "Signal" now, so should I automatically sell as it has always been a good idea previously to sell when the signal is given?? I would say that we can disregard the Pi Cycle Top signal in this case for the following reasons. All other Momentum Oscillators and Volatility metrics were giving obvious highs at each of the previous signals. This time the setup is distinctly different on both volatility metrics and on momentum oscillators, with most volatility metrics being close to their lows, and momentum oscillators hovering just slightly above their midlines. Personally (this is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor) I will be completely disregarding the Pi Cycle Top signal as a consequence. I am interpreting the momentum oscillators coming back down near their midlines as a "Bullish reset" giving them room to run to the upside and volatility dropping near its lows as giving room to expand. I will remain bullish on Bitcoin until I see momentum oscillators breaking below their midlines or an obvious higher Timeframe reversal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by The_Caretaker
19
Pi Cylce Top Bitcoin is INVALID for this bull cycle!!Welcome everybody, My name is Rutger and today i want to discuss the Pi Cycle Top indicator. I think that the Pi cycle top indicator does not work in this bull run. Because this time is really different than other bull cycles, it is never good to say that this time is different, but I will show you why it is really different this bull cycle. First of all bitcoin balance of exchange is dropping very hard, that is a very bullish sign. We usually see that when the balance on exchanges move up, we reach the end of the Bull market. The opposite is happening right now. Secondly when we look into the charts we can see that everytime the Pi Cycle Top crossed, it was in the red area of the log growth curves indicator. As you can see on the chart, we are not even close yet. ( in 2013 we also did not hit the red area of the log growth curves for the first peak cycle top. But it did HIT the 96 RSI level ). The third thing is, that always when the Pi Cycle Top crossed we were at the 96 RSI level. This time we are in the purple zone not overbought not oversold. Also this bull cycle has been crazy so far with institutions buying and big companies like Tesla and Microstrategy buying. Bitcoin is now for the first time a $1 trillion dollar asset. Which means that big investing company's are also allowed to buy bitcoin. So with all these fundamentals + Technical analyses. I think the Pi cycle top is not valid this time. What do you guys think, let me know below! Please like this post so we can get a lot of different people to look at this and discuss this further.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Rutgercrypto
7