Gold Bearish Butterfly PatternConfirmations for short:
MACD divergence
Butterfly Extension completed
Bearish pinbar
Fib Channel confluence
Pin Bar
GOLD - Monthly - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1GOLD has a correlation to the strength of USD, as a risk-off asset investors seek haven in the event of Dollar weakness (USD falls > GOLD rises). I'm sure there's more to it than that, be sure to check it out online for yourself.
Comments
The Monthly timeframe has a clear to identify trading zone from 1330 - 1180 region. Alone this isn't enough to form a thesis for the direction of GOLD in my opinion due to the level of acceleration into the resistance zone of 1330's. Looking left you can see a clean sell-off followed by a decisive buyers rally. This tells me there's interest in buying GOLD which could see prices near the highs before a fall back down to the bottom of the range.
Looking at the candlestick formation at the top of the zone, we have a nice high test candle which stands out from the rest of the price action looking left. I would like to see more deceleration though before trading GOLD to the downside.
The current month hasn't come to an end yet, so the most recent Monthly candle cannot be considered complete.
Key Note
During a ranging market, the EMA's will trade sideways and cannot be used with the same set of rules as during a trending market. If a range is formed on the Monthly timeframe however, a trend can exist on the lower timeframes. You need to be aware of your time horizons when considering confluences. Price always rules over indicators.
DXY - Weekly - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1Continuing with another episode of Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1, I'd like to break down the DXY.
The DXY being weighted as follows:
EUR - 57.6%
JPY - 13.6 %
GBP - 11.9%
CAD - 9.1%
SEK - 4.2%
CHF - 3.6%
As you may imagine, there's a lot more interest in using the DXY for a correlation / confluence tool when trading the EURUSD. The EURO equates to over half of the overall weight of the index, meaning there's a majority interest in the EUR vs USD.
We can use this to our advantage, alongside the USDOLLAR INDEX, to add positive or negative trade factors when considering positions across USD pairs and commodities.
Comments
Looking at the Weekly timeframe gives us a different picture to that on the Monthly. We a low-test candle printing into the 20/50 EMA wave, this indicates a possible continuation to the near-term levels of 97.40 region. If we did see this push to the upside, it's change the formation on the current Monthly candle (and potentially the overall outlook shared within the Monthly breakdown). Thinking in terms of the longer time horizon, if we see a break of 97.80 I think it's possible to reach the realms of 100.
Key Note
The Weekly and Monthly are conflicting, which can often be a sign of the overall bias changing from beneath the surface. The smaller timeframes turn quicker, and when they align, this can change the direction gradually on the higher timeframes.
USDPLN - (Bullish) Inside Bar / Pin Bar Fake-Out within TriangleIn USDPLN we have a nice bullish setup on the weekly charts with a bullish inside bar / pin bar fake-out that has formed off of the bottom of a rising triangle. There have been numerous attempts to break out of this rising triangle, with a number of the attempts producing bearish pin bars which saw price drop immediately lower. Even so, price has continued to produce higher lows. This latest pin bar that has formed may be the setup that finally gets this pair to break out of its rising triangle.
EURUSD - (Bearish) Inside Bar / Pin Bar Fake-OutThe EURUSD has formed a bearish inside bar / pin bar fake-out. This has formed on the weekly charts. There are a number of things to really like about this setup: not only is the pattern itself large and well defined, it is also setting within a larger overall bearish trend, and has formed just beneath some key resistance levels. It really checks all of the boxes for things I look for in a good setup. One of the negatives of this trade is that price is sitting just above a local support level. Due to that fact, we may see price retrace a bit higher early next week before attempting to break lower.
XLE - Bearish Inside Bar Pin Bar Fake OutAn inside bar / pin bar fake out pattern has formed on the XLE weekly chart. This pattern has formed just below a key resistance level as well as the 50% retracement of the last swing high/low, which is exactly the area we want to see this form. One negative with this setup is that price has formed a very sharp v-shaped reversal off it's lows. That doesn't mean that the pattern is untradable but it does mean any trades taken here need to be aggressively defended, and profit targets not be too aggressive.
AUDUSD - Bearish Pin Bar SetupThe AUDUSD has formed a bearish pin bar setup that is very similar to the NZDUSD. The big difference is the bigger price action picture. The AUDUSD is the weaker of the two, and may end up providing more downside if price breaks down in a major way, but I think both charts have attractive setups worth considering.
NZDUSD - Bearish Pin Bar Setup within PennantThe NZDUSD pair has formed a nice, large bearish pin bar. The pin bar has a lot of positives going for it such as a very large upper wick, narrow body, and also the fact that it has closed below the upper trend line of the pennant that is currently forming. The negatives with this setup that I think weakens it a bit is the fact that price is still contained within what I consider the support/resistance zone. Price closing below that zone would have really strengthened the setup. In addition, price leading into the pennant was quite bullish. Taking all of that into consideration, I think the setup is tradable, but I would not become too much of a hero with profit levels.
SILVER / SI / SLV - Bearish Pin BarSilver has formed a bearish pin bar setup. There is a bit to be desired in this setup, but I think it does set up an opportunity for price to break lower and retest the 14.80 region. In regards to the pin bar, the real body is sitting a little bit high with a little too much bottom wick. I think it weakens the pattern a bit, but it is a fake out none the less and lines up well with the double top that had formed a few weeks earlier.
I discussed the bullish setup in DXY, which if that setup plays out, could put a lot of downward pressure on gold and silver.
DXY / US DOLLAR - Bullish Setup - Inside Bar Pin Bar Fake OutIn DXY we have an inside bar / pin bar fake out pattern that has formed on the weekly charts. This pattern is considered a bullish pattern and has formed within a larger bullish pennant pattern. Last week we saw price break out of the pennant and then pull back in, setting up a short-term bearish scenario. That saw price drop all of the way to the bottom of the pennant. Price briefly tagged the bottom of the pennant and rocketed back up, pulling all of the way back into the previous weeks price range. This has set up the current bullish fake out pattern and could provide the fuel necessary to finally break out of the pennant and see price reach the 99-100 area (or higher).
DXY is not directly tradable but it does have an impact on a lot of markets. There are a number of setups that have occurred that I will be discussing in other videos. I will link to those other videos here.
GBPUSD daily demand, bullish gartley, and an 15min hammerIt's been so exciting to trade GBPUSD these days, which is actually a heaven for momentum traders!
I hardly use limit order to trade this pair for quite a long time with regard to how it reacts to news.
Accordingly, I am much more interesting in those stop orders trade!
Here we got this daily demand zone, bullish gartley , and 15min hammer combination trade.
A buy stop above the hammer isn't a bad idea, and if it breaks a new low before the breakout, this trade will be cancelled.
Let's see how it goes yo!
Bitcoin: Bullish Pin Bar! Why Not Buy?Bitcoin update: Even in the face of a bullish pin bar, it is still reasonable to say that this market is going no where fast. Candle stick formations are random and what gives them any analytical value is WHERE they appear. Since our swing trade exit at 4125, we have been PATIENTLY WAITING for a setup that offers attractive reward/risk.
The typical trader craves action, but the market does not care what the typical trader wants. Good marketers know this and capitalize on this characteristic of human nature and they will write or say ANYTHING to capture attention (which is what they effectively monetize). The best information that you can get is on your chart, but it may not be as exciting as the marketer leads you to believe.
REALITY or the truth is often what the crowd does NOT want to hear because it is boring and uneventful. And the reality about Bitcoin is it goes into slow grind periods for weeks at a time, followed by some large movement which gets the herd all excited again. The key to navigating this type of environment is to pay the MOST attention when the market is not only quiet, but also in an attractive location.
Is Bitcoin in an attractive location to buy at the moment? In my opinion NO. The high 3800's to the 4100 area is a broader resistance zone. Sure, price may grind through it, BUT the risk is NOT worth the potential rewards at this point. Beyond the reward/risk we also consider the "personality" of this market in such a location. Fake outs and lack of follow through are more likely because Bitcoin is NOT in a strongly trending environment. Recent structure continues to offer plenty of clues that hint toward a range bound market. And in ranges, buying near highs (especially out of boredom) is not a productive behavior over the long run.
Overall, we want to see price test and develop a setup around the 3500 - 3600 area or the 3300 area. Those levels are at least closer to the range lows and are much more attractive in terms of risk compared to where price is now.
Keep in mind that there is also a potential bearish pennant developing. It is too early to make any judgements, but the appearance of the positive sloping converging trend lines serves as another reason to WAIT for a better situation when it comes to taking a swing trade long.
In summary, it is better to look for all the reasons to stay out of a trade than it is to find every reason to be in. Eventually you will run out of reasons to be out and that is usually when the rare and high quality opportunity surfaces. There is no reason to get excited over a couple of pin bars, especially when the location is NOT favorable.
Think less about profit and more about probability. That is how to effectively navigate an environment that is filled with constant uncertainty. We will continue to WAIT for a better price area before initiating another swing trade long. We don't hunger for action, instead we embrace reality and WAIT until the market meets our criteria. WAITING is what generates the profits over the long run, NOT chasing.
EURNZD Bulls Taking Charge!Analysis
-EURNZD looking bullish after showing signs of reversal. Sellers pushed price down into support but buyers brought it back up above support before the daily candle close.
-The price action resulted in a pinbar setup AT SUPPORT which is a bullish sign.
-On the 1H time frame, price just broke a bearish trendline to the upside.
-There is also bullish RSI divergence on the 1H time frame which further eludes to price possibly moving higher in the coming days.
-The reward/risk is good for the setup (given the distance between daily S/R levels)
Entry, Stops and Targets
-Long Entry: 1.6471 (Enter long after price pulls back, never chase a trade)
-Stop Loss: 1.6404 (Set stop below the daily reversal candle)
-Take Profit: 1.6605 (Set target at a minimum of 2 times your stop depending on entry)
= 2R
*Trade Safe and at your own discretion!*
USD/JPY - Intraday long set-upWe can see that the price on the daily chart has tested EMA 50(HIGH), EMA 100 & 200 too. These could be big supports for the USDJPY pair. It is testing another monthly support (all red horizontal lines). The next demand zone might be at the bullish trendline, where we need to see a confirmation at least on 4H chart.
It looks like there could be a pin-bar on the four hour timeframe, which should be our bullish confirmation for the intraday set-up. There are EMA’s, monthly support, bullish trendline and maybe a bullish pin-bar on the 4H chart. There are all strong arguments for a LONG position.
For the SL and TP targets, look into the comments below.
ENTRY: After pin-bar confirmation (around 111.110-150)
TP: 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at 111.550 (or in the area of 111.370-111.550)
SL: Below the pin-bar at 110.920
JUSTDIAL gave pin at resistance and fake breakoutFake breakout and pin at resistance
STRICTLY:
below 540 sl 546
for 534-527
USD / DXY - Bullish Weekly Pin Bar SignalThe US Dollar formed a very bullish candlestick pattern last week. The pattern was a large bullish pin bar from a pullback off of a swing high. There will be an immediate test of resistance at the 97.00 level and if that is to break we could see it quickly rise up to the 99.50 - 100.00 level before meeting for serious resistance. I wouldn't be shorting the dollar right now, but for those who are long I would use these levels 97 and 99.50 as areas for trade management.
I am currently short the EURUSD.
AUDCAD - Monthly - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1Introduction
I'm starting a new multi-timeframe analysis series and using TradingView to document it.
Objective
The main objective of this multi-timeframe analysis series is to bring together the knowledge I have gained over the 4+ years of trading, and encourage me to consciously use that knowledge rather than working out of habit and 'instinct' which is so easy to do.
I also hope that anyone who chooses to read these series will gain some useful knowledge.
Please feel free to share your opinions with me in the comments, but please remember that my opinion may differ from yours. If I've learned anything, it's that 2 opinions or biases can co-exist and both play out to be successful.
I hope you enjoy
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Comments
I've identified the Monthly timeframe to be trading nicely within a range between 0.9200 - 1.0250. This means any moving averages cannot be considered for 'trend bias' on this timeframe, only to be considered as obstacles for things such as entries and exits (profit taking) during the move between the range.
After a bullish low test reversal candle at the bottom of the range, price rallied up to the Monthly 50 EMA where it acted as dynamic resistance, and has since retraced down to the 61.8% fib retracement (which coincides with the high of the signal candle). At this level we've got a Monthly Inside Bar, which is a sign of indecision.
Key Note
Think in terms of crowd psychology when it comes to things such as the Monthly 50 EMA in this example. Traders will be taking profit there as well as short seller placing orders.
Potencional UPShort- therm up trend , now tetsted short term support, and you can seee flag formation this is bullish signal, wait for monday
SI XAGUSD Silver - Bullish Inside Bar Fake Out**Keep in mind that the daily candle is not yet closed. This pattern is not officially in place until today's candle has closed.**
Silver has formed an inside bar / pin bar / fake out pattern. This is where price winds up to form an inside bar, followed by a breakout and immediate pullback into the other direction. Price will still need to break to mother candle to get things moving but so far we have the beginnings of some bullish price action that could take this market even high.
