SPY reversal comingSPY fell as I predicted in the related idea. It followed exactly the RSI channel that I drew when I posted my earlier idea (yes, I didnt' draw it now but before SPY fell, on Sept. 11, 2023, when SPY was 448.38).
SPY now looks ready for reversal (given the price reaching lower pitchfork lines and RSI reaching the bottom of the channel). Additionally, I have my own indicators that helped my draw this conclusion that I can't include here due to Tradingview house rules restrictions.
The reversal may take some time to play out or my start right away but it's coming. I do expect SPY to go up over the next 2 days. SPY closed today at 425.88.
Pitchforks
COIN - Further Lows On The PlateThe last chart i COIN I showed you (see linked) was a nice play. Will this one cooperate too?
Let's analyze the chart:
The white Fork's CL was reached.
It came down hard and fell beyond the L-MLH.
We see the orange Fork, a pullback Fork.
Price struggled to jump above it's CL a view days ago, and now opened and closed below it, AND below the white Forks L-MLH.
Because I want to give this trade a little room, I initiated an Options Strategy by combining Short & Long Spreads.
You can see in the Black Window (Graph), there is plenty of room to let it go against the initial idea.
The B/E point is at the $85 short Call.
When time passes and price would stay exactly where it is now, the position would create a little profit.
If price is going up and stays between the horizontal line (yellow Arrow in the Graph), we profit.
If price of COIN starts to fall, we make profits along the dotted white line.
So, what's the benefit of this trade?
Why not play it directional by just shorting COIN?
1. There's a time decay involved.
My short Call-Debit-Spread generates money, every day by decaying in value.
2. There's the directional aspect.
If price cooperates, then the position profits from the "right" movement AND 1.
Downside?
If price MOVES (it HAS to move) in the wrong direction above $85, then I loose with both positions.
Luckily I can manage this options strategy when ever I want. I can open and/or close Spreads, I can add or remove Legs in favor of my position. I can add Stocks Long OR Short.
Too complicated?
I learned, that success does not just come from a 1-Trick trading Setup/System. If you want to survive in to-days markets, you have to learn, adapt and never stop this process.
I personally like to have as many possibilities to skin my Cats as possible.
I'm a Nerd, a Tr8dingN3rd and I live for what I do §8-)
Bitcoin: Last Leg of the Bear MarketINDEX:BTCUSD
BTC has put on an impressive rally from the November ’22 lows. (+105%)
Now, it looks like it’s about to start turning over again for what I believe is the leg of the bear market.
The Red Median Line set is drawn from major pivots: Dec ’17 high, Dec ’18 Low, and the Nov ’21 High.
I plotted a (yellow) minor fork on ’22-’23 price action to show a potential path to the major (red) Median Line.
Other Factors:
- RSI Bear Div
- Ichimoku Cloud Bearish
- VWAP from the highs holding resistance.
- Strong Dollar
- Continued bearish price moves in equities/risk assets
*Screenshots Below*
I’m expecting a final flush for BTC to approximately $9,000 - $10,000, or a 65% decline from the current price level.
This is also roughly in line with previous cycles.
2015 - 2018 Bull/Bear Cycle: (Bull Market High = $19.8K, Bear Market Low = $3.1K, 84.3% decline)
2018 - 2024 Bull/Bear Cycle: (High = SWB:69K , Low = X, 84.3% decline)
X = $10.8K = Low
Fat_Fat
Nasdaq Cycle Turning BearishNasdaq daily cycle is putting lower highs indicating that price is now moving towards a cycle low, any upwards momentum can be expected to be halted by the blue resistance line. We can also see the median line of the Pitchfork is now acting as resistance. Bulls would not want to see price trade below the green horizontal line as this would represent a cycle failure (expect deeper drawdowns).
Once a cycle failure occurs then we can expect price to be seeking a weekly cycle low, this will be seen by price going below the upsloping pink line, in severe pullbacks price would visit the 200 DMA which is quite a sharp decline.
EURCAD Buy at Weekly Support Trade PlanAnalysis:
EURCAD is currently positioned at a significant weekly support level, indicating a potential reversal zone. Further analysis on the 5-minute timeframe reveals a notable change of character, suggesting an influx of buyers entering the market.
Trade Expectation:
Anticipating a reversal, I am focusing on the warning line of a pitchfork I've drawn on the 30-minute timeframe as a potential turning point for the price.
Trade Execution:
To capitalize on this anticipated reversal, I am placing a buy limit order. Entries, take profit (TP), and stop-loss (SL) levels have been carefully marked on the chart above, aligning with my analysis and risk management strategy. I am taking 2 trades with RR as 1:2 and 1:4.
Sure, you can also target the lower parallel of the median line, but I am happy getting out at 1:4 if the prices goes there.
Disclaimer:
It is important to note that trading involves inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade responsibly and consider your risk tolerance when executing any trading plan.
📈GBPUSD analysis, Weekly insight into price behavior📉FX:GBPUSD
OANDA:GBPUSD
Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas.
If the Pound stabilizes above the weekly Bollinger midline, the bearish scenario won't be fellfield.
In the bearish scenario, the price can fall to the yellow zone.
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CrazyS✌
📈Bitcoin weekly prediction, 23K or 31K?📉BINANCE:BTCUSDT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
As we specified in the previous analysis, Bitcoin's movements were limited in the green structure that was specified in the previous analytical idea. For this reason, the price started to fall from the level of 28 thousand dollars and could not stabilize at higher levels. Why?
Because at that time there was no catalyst to stabilize the price. I expected the price to receive this catalyst after reaching the September 1-3 time zone, but the sentiment remains negative for Bitcoin.
In this week, bitcoin price continues to move in an ascending channel (in yellow).
The news around Bitcoin makes it more likely that the Bitcoin ETF will be approved.
As the probability of ETF approval increases, the green path and the bullish scenario will strengthen.
On the other side, if the price breaks the yellow channel from the bottom and behaves indifferent to the red fork structure, there is a possibility that the price will go down to the yellow area.
Overall, in my opinion, as long as the price of Bitcoin does not fall below the $23,000 level, there is a possibility that it will go higher.
But if the price loses the yellow zone and the support of $23,000, the level of 22,500 to 21,500 will be a strong support for Bitcoin in the bearish scenario.
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📈CASPER weekly --> 150% profit plan📉OKX:CSPRUSDT
KUCOIN:CSPRUSDT
Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas.
If the price stabilizes above the green areas --> 💥long scenario💥
targets are on the chart.
optimum stop-loss is below the 0.016$ level.
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🤑🍾Thank you for your support. I hope you will gain profit by following my analyses.🍾🤑
CrazyS✌
SOLANA DUMP INCOMINGCRYPTO:SOLUSD
SOLANA DUMP INCOMING
Why?
- USD Strength
- Weekly uptrend line broken
- Leaving Mod-Schiff Fork
- Weekly MACD Bearish Cross
- Weekly DMI Bearish Cross (Pending)
Don't let the log-scale chart fool you.
We're looking at a return to $8 (December '22 low), or an even larger decline to $5 (the Aug '20 high)
That's a 50% - 70% drop from current levels.
Short it.
Fat_Fat
📉PEPE analysis after team conflict📈BINANCE:PEPEUSDT
OKX:PEPEUSDT
Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas.
If the price stabilizes below the yellow area, the long scenario won't be fulfilled.
Targets are on the chart.
Optimum stop-loss for long position is below the 0.0000008415 level.
After what happened to Pepe's developer team and their conflict, there is a possibility of an upward return in the price trend if the sentiment around this project improves.
If the negative sentiment continues, the price of Pepe can decrease to the lower levels of the pitchfork.
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CrazyS✌
NPH Finding Support: Potential Reversal ZoneNPH is seeking a weekly low price, here we see price back at the median support of the Pitchfork, a good area for a bounce. Price can move to the resistance of the Pitchfork and breakout. If it fails then we can expect a visit of the median line but this time lower and support of the blue parallel channel comes into scope.
NZDCAD counter trend long setupNZDCAD : Navigating the Bullish Pitchfork
NZDCAD seems to be respecting the bullish pitchfork that I've plotted on the chart. It's followed the script by touching the median line and is now making its way back down.
The Anticipated Scenario
I'm anticipating the price to retrace upwards to the liquidity zone above.
The Trade Strategy
I'll be watching if the price closes with separation at the lower parallel of the pitchfork. If that separation occurs, I'll enter a buy position, and my goal is to target either the median line of the pitchfork or the liquidity zone above whichever comes first.
Disclaimer:
Trading isn't just about analysis; it's also about adapting to the ever-evolving market. Keep an eye on the charts, stay updated with market news, and, most importantly, stick to your risk management plan.
📈EURO analysis, Weekly insight into price behavior📉FX:EURUSD
OANDA:EURUSD
Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas.
Continuing from the previous analytical scenario, if the euro stabilizes above the yellow zone, the price can climb up to the pitchfork midline.
In the opposite scenario, if the price does not follow the conditions of the previous scenario, the price can fall to around the red zone and after that 1.064 level.
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CrazyS✌
Crude Oil - Breakout AlertNYMEX:CL1!
Watch for a breakout in Crude Oil.
An $84 handle on Crude could indicate a run back to the March '22 highs is en route.
We've seen Crude stuck in the $65-$80 trading range for around 8 months now.
While this base is being built, we see bullish divergence on a number of different oscillators.
Weekly candles found support right around the 200 Week EMA and price is leading short EMAs above long EMAs.
Weekly DMI shows that +DI just crossed bullish.
Setting Fibonacci time-zones from Covid Lows to March '22 highs, we see the 1.618 time-zone perfectly coincides with the post-Covid low in May '23.
Looking out to the 2.0 Fibonacci time-zone, we see the intersection of the time-zone, Schiff Median Line and March '22 highs at $130, in mid-January 2024.
*Due to the crazy wick in April 2020, I used the weekly open/close as the origin point for the Schiff ML.
If the upward trajectory continues, I'm getting long and hoping to ride price back to $130 or higher.
Additional Screenshots below.
Fat_Fat
King Dollar (DXY) Goes into HibernationThe DXY presented with a failed daily cycle by going below 22 June low, what followed was a sharp sell-off. We ended the week with a sign of reversal which is simply one to be viewed as a relief rally before going down further. The RSI being oversold might attract buyers but I expect the price action to mimic that between 15 November 2022 to January 2023 where it bobs up & down near the lower band.
We are in week 13, short weekly cycles are above 19 weeks so we have time for price to maintain downward trajectory before becoming alert for a strong reversal. While at it we must be cognisant of counter trends, the sharp drop in the DXY was due to inflation data, a counter trend can equally be fuelled by an opposite news especially around war & war of words between powerful nations. Conditions in EU/UK also put those nations in weak spots that can force traders into the dollar.
The Pitchfork gives us a guide, we lost the median line, we can backtest it out of the half cycle correction then head down with expectation the blue support might spur some short covering. When this chart is changed to a weekly we see the 200 week moving average nearby, a place for a strong bounce. Overall we must remain within the Pitchfork on the way down.
📉PEPE is ready for a price jump 📈BINANCE:PEPEUSDT
Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas.
If the price stabilizes below the yellow area, the long scenario won't be fulfilled.
Targets are on the chart.
Optimum stop-loss is below the 0.0000008415 level.
✌💥If you are satisfied with my analytical content, please share my ideas💥✌
✍🐱👤Otherwise, make sure you leave comments and let me know what you think.🐱👤✍
🤑🍾Thank you for your support. I hope you will gain profit by following my analyses.🍾🤑
CrazyS✌
📈GBPUSD analysis, Weekly insight into price behavior📉FX:GBPUSD
FOREXCOM:GBPUSD
Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas.
This is my first analysis on GBPUSD daily.
If the Pound stabilizes above the yellow zone (crossing the weekly Bollinger midline), the price can climb up to the 1.30 level.
In the opposite scenario, if the price does not follow the conditions of the previous scenario, the price can fall to around 1.2626.
✌💥If you are satisfied with my analytical content, please share my ideas💥✌
✍🐱👤Otherwise, make sure you leave comments and let me know what you think.🐱👤✍
🤑🍾Thank you for your support. I hope you will gain profit by following my analyses.🍾🤑
CrazyS✌