XAUUSD 15MIN 1H PULLBACK pullback on the chanel 4h
Now we can see the immediate resistance levels and the immediate support levels below starting at 1835 and below that 1823. What we want to ideally see here is a retest of that 1850 level or a slight push above it and monitor the close. Right now we look like we're closing under the 1850 level which still aids caution as support targets below may not hold the price.
Tomorrow is going to be telling, the ideal scenario here for us is for the price to hold support below giving the opportunity to long the market back up towards the 1850 and above that 1865 price points before facing resistance. Resistance there and we may just look to short it back down into the low 1800s.
As we suggested, while the market is like this and with options expiry looming, we're trading this level to level using Excalibur to guide us. So this area above now is pivotal for Gold , 1850-65, will we close above it on the weekly and daily or not?! Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day on the markets.
As always, trade safe.
Pitchforks
in the beginning of the 2nd wavecrab harmonic pattern:
X=$14.85
A=$0.028
AB=0.38 XA
BC=0.88 AB
0.23 XA=$0.125
0.78 BC=$0.198
0.88 BC=$0.245
1.13 BC=$0.41
0.5 XA=$0.65
1.41 BC=$0.74
1.6 BC=$1.16
0.61 XA=$1.36
2 BC=$2.61
0.78 XA=$3.9
2.24 BC=$4.35
0.88 XA=$7.28
2.6 BC=$9.71
1.13 XA=$33.47
3.6 BC=$81.17
1.27 XA=$81.3
1.41 XA=$192
4.23 BC=$301
1.6 XA=$706
Median Lines EURUSDAfter the false break washes out bottom pickers, sellers step back in to show their hand.
The Schiff ML set, with 'C' based on the width pivot provides a a number of confirmations and tests of the of the upper ML allowing both early, and late entries with stops set above "C".
With the 'zoom' down through the ML line, I probably could have used an aggressive trailing S/L to look for the 1st warning line, but I was in bed, so we take profit at the LML.
The frequency of the ML set is pretty spectacular, with numerous touches of frequency.
The zoom and retest on the rally up through the LML targets the upper 1st warning line if frequency is still in play, plus coming into structure. We can see how price reacts to the 1stWL.
Long Citigroup: Inverted Head & ShouldersNYSE:C
An inverted head & shoulders pattern is developing on the Citigroup weekly chart.
The weekly RSI just left oversold levels; after laying out what could be the right shoulder of the inverted H&S.
The height of the "head" is approximately $48.
Applying fib extensions and a standard pitchfork to approximate a target.
The 1.0 fib extension is almost exactly $48 from the bottom of the right shoulder.
The median line of the standard fork crosses this target in December '22.
Although the pitchfork covers the 1.0 fib extension level until December '23. (LEAPS Anyone?)
The financial sector should benefit from rising rates throughout the rest of the year.
I'll start scaling into a position once momentum confirms.
Technical Entry Signals
Entry #1 - Price above 9w EMA
Entry #2 - Price above 20w EMA
Entry #3 - 9w EMA cross above 20w EMA
SPY Road to 350AMEX:SPY
SPY getting ready to bounce here.
Some are calling bottom...
In my opinion, we still have a long way to go.
Quantitative Tightening scheduled for June 1st.
Along with two more FOMC meetings (rate increases) in June & July.
I'm looking to short this bounce, somewhere near the 50% fib (SPY 417)
1H - Harmony $ONE LongKUCOIN:ONEUSDT
$ONE just put in a cup and handle on the hourly chart.
Price moving up out of the handle.
MACD turning up, along with +DI crossing bullish with a low ADX potential for big upside.
Standard Fork to project a path forward.
Looking to take profit just before the 1.0 Fib Extension - $0.061 - $0.063 range.
Fat_Fat
ADA/USDA quick look at the ADA/USD 1 day chart:
ADA is still below its Longterm upwards Pitchfork (Blue A,B,C) Median Line on this 1 day timeframe.
ADA is also below its smaller descending Pitchfork (Black A,B,C) Median Line on this 1 day timeframe.
ADA is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1 day timeframe. Note that the Lower Band is till pointing downwards and the Upper Band is now moving downwards.
At the moment of typing this, ADA is trying to get back and stay above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 day timeframe.
Note that ADA is still above its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) for this charts entire Visible Range. Looking at this range gives us a sense of potential upcoming areas of previous volume interest that may offer good buying opportunities if ADA drops lower.
ADA is also still under its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the Fixed Range of 11x Daily Candles that i have Selected.
Looking at the Ichimoku Cloud with the 20,60,120,30 settings:
The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the Mid-point of the Short-term Momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the Mid-point of the Mid-term momentum is also sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that momentum is upwards at the moment for this 1 day candle. Note that The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is still under the Price from 30 Periods ago.
Note that both the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) and Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) are moving sideways at the moment indicating a decrease in volatility at the moment.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is strong with the ADX (Orange Line) at 40.249 and above its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 37.203. Negative momentum is still dominant with the -DI (Red Line) at 29.750 but note it has dropped from 37.0. Positive Momentum has increased slightly with the +DI (Green Line) rising to 10.83.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), we can see that momentum is sideways with a slight upwards trajectory. Note that the MACD Lien (Blue Line) is still under its Signal Line (Orange Line) and still in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line on this 1 day timeframe.
Potential areas of previous Volume interest to look out for if you want to go long on ADA if ADA drops further are potentially:
$0.411 to $0.298,
$0.179 - $0.128,
$0.111 - $0.082,
$0.049 - $0.033.
Using the indicators on this chart, for confirmation of a renewed mid to longterm uptrend on this 1 day timeframe, we need to see:
1: ADA to successfully close a daily candle ABOVE its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA and stay above it.
2: ADA to successfully close a daily candle ABOVE its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) and stay above it.
3: ADA to cross back into the Bullish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud and for the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) to cross back ABOVE the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) creating a Kumo (Cloud) Twist creating a new Bullish Green Cloud for this 1 day timeframe.
4: The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) to cross back ABOVE the Price from 30 Periods ago and stay above the price below it.
5: The +DI (Green Line) to cross back ABOVE the -DI (Red Line) on the Average Directional Index (ADX DI)
6: the MACD Line (Blue Line to cross back ABOVE its Signal Line (Orange Line) and back ABOVE the 0.0 Base Line into the Positive Zone on this 1 day timeframe.
7: ADA to cross back ABOVE both Pitchfork Median Lines especially the Longterm upwards Pitchfork (Blue A,B,C).
Apologies for the lack of posting, i have been busy filming a new feature film. I'm sure there's more things i could post and I've probably missed a few things but this hopefully gives people enough for to ponder.
I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
it was end of the 2nd wave?butterfly harmonic pattern:
X=$1.47
A=$0.0054
AB=0.78 XA
BC=0.88 AB
0.78 BC=$0.193
0.88 BC$0.285
0.78 XA=$0.443
1.13 BC=$0.74
0.88 XA=$0.776
1.13 XA=$3
1.6 BC=$4.97
1.27 XA=$6.74
1.41 XA=$14.46
2 BC=$22.13
1.6 XA=$46.8
2.24 BC=$56.5
The tail of two pitchforks - two entries and a forecast!!Hello fellow traders,
Hope all is well.
Today I bring you a tail of two pitchforks that share two pivots. This however is where the similarities end and the fun begins.
As the market moves aggressively UP towards the Dollar Yen's previous High in late April 2022 @ 131.253 directly following the FED's Interest rate decision we begin our pitchfork analysis.
Step 1: For both Pitchfork 1 and Pitchfork 2 we begin by numbering the left and right shoulder P3 (High) & P4(Low) respectively. We then continue to number the rest of the pivots P2, P1 and P0 in that order.
For regular Pitchfork 1, P2 becomes our "Anchor" pivot and for Pitchfork 2, P0 becomes our "Anchor" pivot.
Now, my 1st entry trigger/trade 1/pitchfork 2/tight stops was on a negative candle close following the median line touch see chart. You see, the P0 - P3/P4 pitchfork 2 is primarily used to isolate the P5 reversal usually located at the Median Line or if exceeded the next median line parallel. This is important as we can expect a strong change in trend. I will discuss other reasons for entry later.
Now, my 2nd entry trigger/trade 2/pitchfork 1/tight stops was on the confirmed retest of the lower parallel following a "Downward Zoom" candle that breached it. Was I confident on this short? Hell Yeah!! Question is " What was giving me the confidence? What was I expecting as a take profit? lets continue...
So....What was giving me the confidence in trade 1
1. A negative candle close at the median line "Direct Hit" on pitchfork 2
2. Price was at a possible double Top
3. I was hovering over a possible P5 pivot which would automatically mean a "price failure" trade on pitchfork 1..!!
These 3 "reasons for entry" was 80% of my confirmation the other 20% ( I may discuss in another post ) was just gravy.
So....What was giving me the confidence in trade 2
a. P5 ( Pivot 5 ) on pitchfork 2 was all but confirmed
b. A breach of lower parallel and the retest on pitchfork 1 (this confirmed the "Price Failure" ie failed to reach the median line)
c. An all but "confirmed" double top
d. my expected take profit target was at least 270 pips!!
Now, why was I expecting as a take profit of at least 270 pips? and What's a price failure? I hear you ask..
Well Andrews gave us one the most powerful rules regarding a price failure....that being...When price "fails" to reach the median line the reversal of trend following a breach of a parallel line ( moving outside of a regular pitchfork ( see pitchfork 1 ) will travel a greater distance than the swing that preceded it!!
That's right, the previous swing was around 270 pips which gives us a minimum take profit of 270 pips but more likely to exceed it ...as we speak it has reached 300 or so pips before swinging back up....
So here is where the story ends, A price failure, more often than not, will indicates a P5 reversal and a great take profit target!! I'll let you work out the Return to Risk Ratio.
Cheers
RB
butterfly scenariobutterfly harmonic pattern:
AB=0.78 XA
BC=0.88 AB=$1.13
0.23 XA=$2.22
0.38 BC=$3.98
0.38 XA=$4.47
0.61 BC=$8.76
0.61 XA=$13.87
0.78 BC=$15.35
0.88 BC=$21.44
0.78 XA=$31
0.88 XA=$50.2
1.41 BC=$123
1.31 XA=$161.8
1.6 BC=$246.8
1.27 XA=$320
1.41 XA=$620
2 BC=$883
1.6 BC=$1682
2.24 XA=$1968
KCS | Follow the Yellow Brick RoadI'm breaking TA rules here and using a fork in a slightly improper way I know, BUT, "Trust me bro, I've made bongs with less" . . Bonus points if you get the vague movie reference (I don't actually "toke up").
Getting down to business here, just look at the conformity and the historical Golden trendline. We may not be able to short this beauty at the mid-line BUT we can see where it's probably headed along with all of crypto if you're down for a long. To be clear, I would not long until your feet touch the road, avoid the midline.
Follow the Yellow Brick Road my dudes :)
Disclaimer : Not Investment Advice, DYOR
in the beginning of the 2nd wavecrab harmonic pattern:
X=$134.44
A=$0.06
AB=0.61 XA
BC=0.38 AB
0.78 BC=$4.8
0.88 BC=$5.7
1.13 BC=$8.96
1.41 BC=$14.9
1.6 BC=$21.72
0.78 XA=$25.87
2 BC=$43.41
0.88 XA=$55.88
2.24 BC=$67
2.6 BC=$133
1.13 XA=$365
3.6 BC=$816
1.27 XA=$1091
4.23 BC=$2502
1.41 XA=$3159
1.6 XA=$15672