Pitchforks
the 3rd wave is startingbutterfly harmonic pattern:
X=$5.48e-9
A=$3.27e-10
AB=0.78 XA
BC=0.88 AB
0.61 BC=$1.42e-9
0.61 XA=$1.86e-9
0.78 BC=$1.97e-9
0.88 BC=$2.4e-9
0.78 XA=$3e-9
0.88 XA=$3.97e-9
1.13 XA=$7.9e-9
1.6 BC=$1e-8
1.27 XA=$1.18e-8
1.41 XA=$1.74e-8
2 BC=$2.13e-8
1.6 XA=$3.13e-8
2.24 BC=$3.41e-8
BTC to $180k or $1.2million by 2024. Bottom around $18-25kNote: chart is not showing full trend, scroll down and to the left to see the full pitchfork trend.
Are we at the bottom?
Either at the bottom or close to it. Zooming out we see (1) the RSI indicates we are "oversold" at levels only seen during/close to market bottoms. (2) The long term upward trend channel for BTC also suggests we are in or around the bottom and provides strong support. (3) The prior all time high provides an additional support level since that is usually where the BTC price drops to when receding from a cyclical ATH. (4) The combination of 2 & 3 supports almost coinciding right now provides an extra level of confidence.
Upward trend pitchfork channels like these can break down, especially in alt coins; however, BTC dominates the crypto market and the limited supply will always push for an upward trend. Alt coins come and go in an evermore competitive environment (more cryptos being created all the time) and BTC still wants to dominate them all so the alt coins are crowding each other out.
Why should BTC be in a long term upward trend?
people lose private keys all the time = coins lost forever = fewer coins in circulation
More demand over time since not enough coins exist for every millionaire to own 1BTC
Growing population = more demand
Inflationary currencies
Why (and when) would BTC break down of the upward trend?
BTC no longer dominates the crypto market
Crypto becomes less relevant or obsolete for some reason
Quantum computers are able to decipher private keys
maybe other reasons as well
1.2 million sounds crazy!
Yes it does, but I am just reading the chart. Even if the price would simply stay in the bottom quadrant of the pitchfork channel for the next 2 years (extremely bear market) it would still be above $100k by the end of 2024. This all depends on that lovely pitchfork channel though.
When should I sell?
Hard to say, but DCA is your friend for selling and buying. When everyone is talking about meme coins and NFTs is a good indicator of over-exuberance for example. Everyone was saying BTC at 30K wouldn't happen again, and here we are. I suck at selling the top.
But what about LUNA and UST !?!
LUNA's supply was not fixed, it was(is?) an inflationary currency but worse than most fiat currencies since it was regulated by an algorithm and someone could also just click the "print more money" button manually. Anyone buying into LUNA was basically putting their money as collateral to stabilize UST. There is no way to print more BTC except for the little bit that is created with mining that will eventually go to zero.
This is not financial advice.
XAUUSD 15MIN 1H PULLBACK pullback on the chanel 4h
Now we can see the immediate resistance levels and the immediate support levels below starting at 1835 and below that 1823. What we want to ideally see here is a retest of that 1850 level or a slight push above it and monitor the close. Right now we look like we're closing under the 1850 level which still aids caution as support targets below may not hold the price.
Tomorrow is going to be telling, the ideal scenario here for us is for the price to hold support below giving the opportunity to long the market back up towards the 1850 and above that 1865 price points before facing resistance. Resistance there and we may just look to short it back down into the low 1800s.
As we suggested, while the market is like this and with options expiry looming, we're trading this level to level using Excalibur to guide us. So this area above now is pivotal for Gold , 1850-65, will we close above it on the weekly and daily or not?! Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day on the markets.
As always, trade safe.
in the beginning of the 2nd wavecrab harmonic pattern:
X=$14.85
A=$0.028
AB=0.38 XA
BC=0.88 AB
0.23 XA=$0.125
0.78 BC=$0.198
0.88 BC=$0.245
1.13 BC=$0.41
0.5 XA=$0.65
1.41 BC=$0.74
1.6 BC=$1.16
0.61 XA=$1.36
2 BC=$2.61
0.78 XA=$3.9
2.24 BC=$4.35
0.88 XA=$7.28
2.6 BC=$9.71
1.13 XA=$33.47
3.6 BC=$81.17
1.27 XA=$81.3
1.41 XA=$192
4.23 BC=$301
1.6 XA=$706
Median Lines EURUSDAfter the false break washes out bottom pickers, sellers step back in to show their hand.
The Schiff ML set, with 'C' based on the width pivot provides a a number of confirmations and tests of the of the upper ML allowing both early, and late entries with stops set above "C".
With the 'zoom' down through the ML line, I probably could have used an aggressive trailing S/L to look for the 1st warning line, but I was in bed, so we take profit at the LML.
The frequency of the ML set is pretty spectacular, with numerous touches of frequency.
The zoom and retest on the rally up through the LML targets the upper 1st warning line if frequency is still in play, plus coming into structure. We can see how price reacts to the 1stWL.
Long Citigroup: Inverted Head & ShouldersNYSE:C
An inverted head & shoulders pattern is developing on the Citigroup weekly chart.
The weekly RSI just left oversold levels; after laying out what could be the right shoulder of the inverted H&S.
The height of the "head" is approximately $48.
Applying fib extensions and a standard pitchfork to approximate a target.
The 1.0 fib extension is almost exactly $48 from the bottom of the right shoulder.
The median line of the standard fork crosses this target in December '22.
Although the pitchfork covers the 1.0 fib extension level until December '23. (LEAPS Anyone?)
The financial sector should benefit from rising rates throughout the rest of the year.
I'll start scaling into a position once momentum confirms.
Technical Entry Signals
Entry #1 - Price above 9w EMA
Entry #2 - Price above 20w EMA
Entry #3 - 9w EMA cross above 20w EMA