Get started

Pivot

FED PIVOT conclusion= BUY/SELL setupFED PIVOT conclusion to take ENTRY: FED PIVOT 2022 looks similar to 1973: PIVOT MONTH=if occur in DECEMBER. POSSIBILITY= <30% rise(BULL TRAP) (17.44% already happened) till JANUARY followed by around 40% CRASH. FED PIVOT 2007: PIVOT MONTH=AUGUST. 14.99% rise till october followed by 57.69% CRASH. FED PIVOT 2000: PIVOT MONTH=DECEMBER. 10.31% rise(BULL TRAP) till JANUARY followed by 44.44% CRASH. FED PIVOT 1973: PIVOT MONTH=OCTOBER. 13.11% rise(BULL TRAP) already happened till OCTOBER followed by 45.97% CRASH.
TVC:SPXShort
by cryptopreet
4
SPY Pivot PointSPY is at a pivot point right now and everyone is holding their breath as to what will happen. The trend has not yet broken because according to the DOW theory, it is a downtrend when you have a lower high and a lower low. In this case, the trend continues. Despite the data that came out on Friday, the market still has a room to fall. There is a Fed meeting in mid-December, which will determine whether they will continue to tighten the economy at the same pace or start reducing the rate hike. A cooling in the inflation numbers is noticeable, but at a very slow pace given the fed funds rate. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of 2023 the fed funds rate reaches double digits to meet the Fed's 2% inflation target.
AMEX:SPYShort
by sylvestertsochev26
Is the US Economy Actually adding more jobs than expected?If you have been living under a rock for the past few days, unless you are not an economic savvy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its newest Non-Farm Payrolls much above the expectation. The NFP rose by 263,000 last month, compared with an expected 200,000. At first, my reaction was that the FED will have to keep raising interest rates, especially as the US dollar reacted to this news by jumping 0.8%. However, I was skeptical as to how NFP jobs increased but the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7% in an economy that is starting to experience drawdowns from inflation. So I made a research to analyze exactly what is going on. 1. What is happening in the US labor market? Today the NFP is at ~270,000 jobs, similar to mid-2018 when the labor market was defined as strong. It is much lower than the peak job creation in 2021 but 70,000 extra jobs compared to the expectation is a major difference. 2. What is happening with wage growth in the US labor market? Wage growth has increased by 0.6% month-over-month. This is way too strong for the FED's target of 2% in inflation. But why is it so high? Well, one of the reasons is that the supply of labor is not coming back. The participation rate remains way below pre-pandemic levels, even when accounting for an aging population. So if labor participation is low, job creation must be low to slow inflation, yet, the labor market appears to be healthy. Nonetheless, I wrote an analysis in October challenging the FED's data collection on job creation. "Once consumers have reached their credit limit, they will most likely look for another job. “About 38% of American workers have looked for a second job, while an additional 14% plan to” (LA Time, 2022). This justifies the reasons for more job creation in the U.S. economy as emphasized by the Biden Administration and the Fed, however, it is mostly people looking for a second or third job." Credit debt is increasing at an all-time high due to inflation. "U.S. households are spending $445 more every month due to inflation" (Lacurci G, 2022). So those who cannot keep up with their bills have to work more jobs or extra time. This makes total sense, especially when the Household Job Survey shows no jobs added in the past 8 months, while the Establishment Survey shows 2.7 million jobs added, which is the one used by the FED. Why such a large difference between the Household Job Survey and Establishment Survey? The answer lies in how the different surveys are run. For instance, the household survey counts people holding multiple jobs as one employed person. While the establishment survey counts all the jobs created, even if it is a second or third job. Based on the analysis I previously published, at least 700,000 Americans have had a second or third job in the last 12 months to make ends meet. 3. Where are jobs being created and lost? Being created: leisure, government, education, and healthcare. Being lost: goods, transportation, retail, construction, and utilities. Conclusion: The NFP survey is informing the market about Powell's next decision in December. The strong nominal wage growth and "strong" job creation argue there could be further rate hikes and hawkish talk from grandfather Powell. It is imminent before we will start to see weaknesses in the labor market. It is imperative to understand when will the turnover point of the labor market be and how bad to best position yourself, hence, we can start to see a FED pivot in early 2023 as the labor market weakens. This is for personal recording but feel free to comment and argue.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by ssavi
GOOG - Tide could be turningGOOG's monthly chart formed a bullish divergence and closed with a bullish "pin bar" in November. We are likely to see more upside momentum for this month, although it could pause and consolidate when it hits the near term horizontal resistence around 104-105, then may (or may not) dip back towards 93 (recently pivot low), before eventually breaking higher. Immediately support is currently at 93. Turn cautious if it dips below here. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by Juliac
1
US Inflation Rate, YoY, Double Top? - Long-term ViewPresently, the inflation rate in the US has started falling, which increases expectations for a pivot - end of interest rate hikes. And factually, we can actually expect it. The supply of M2 Money Stock (M2SL) and its annual growth rate are decreasing. The global economy is shifting, as leading economic index (LEI) indicate. This will undoubtedly put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, after the current crisis, the economic recovery will cause a recurrence of inflation. So, if that is the case, the next decade will be marked by tight monetary policy and high inflation. This situation will let the central banks introduce a new monetary system based on CBDCs using incentives such as cheaper credit. Check also my related ideas. Enjoy
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MichaelFX_ICT
Explosion Gap Pivot, $TMDX $PI & $WINGThese 3 stocks look like leaders, and all are making the same patter. The play is simple, wait for a throwback from the gap and then buy the close above the high. The thing is that as they are all real moovers, I'd try staggering stops. Is the best way I know to manage risk in stocks with hihg volatility. NASDAQ:WING is the first to breakout but with a doji candle. That is not very convincing. I'll wait until near the close to see if I start with a small position.
NASDAQ:WINGLong
by dpuleo19
S&P 500 / M2 Money Stock, George Tritch's CycleNow we have a period of high inflation that, in my opinion, will continue for some time. Even if it falls (as the M2 money stock decline points out), we may have a second reversal wave of inflation during the revival after the current bear market. For this reason, a lot of people are waiting for a pivot, which, according to them, will mark the low. This statement is wrong. After pivots, we usually observe the biggest drops on the S&P 500. Similarly, with yield curves - they are inverted, which is a very strong bearish signal. At this point, I invite you to look at the related ideas about the 2008 analogy. The above chart shows the value of the S&P 500 index divided by the M2 Money Stock, which in general presents the situation on the money market - the amount of money in the economy. So we can see how the share prices relate to it. In addition, I added George Tritch's cycle (arrows), which has been assigned the most lows and highs in the past. Shaded arrows indicate less important turning points for this chart. The timing is more important than my projected path; it is only for visualization. The bottom of the current bear market should be in 2023. The next bull market with a high around 2026 should be less generous than the last. The major low of the actual cycle should be around 2032.   And that's all. Enjoy.
SP:SPX
by MichaelFX_ICT