Pivot
THE IMPORTANCE OF VOLUME ANALYSISGood day, All!
Originally, I just wanted to publish another trading idea:
But the more I was looking at the chart, the more it looked like a good example of volume analysis technique.
Basically, the concept is pretty simple - when the price is testing strong supply/demand zones, support/resistance levels, trend lines/etc, significant volume spikes are always accompanying these attempts and further price moves.
Such an impulse is usually enough for the price to travel certain distance, but is loosing its momentum over time.
In order to keep it moving, the price should be supported by further regular medium or higher than that volume spikes.
If the momentum is lost, the market is entering the flat period.
At the same time, the stopping volume at important key points is usually quite higher than the volume which is just enough to keep the price going in already established trend. Really high volume is a great way to detect that something interesting is going on and that this MAY (but NOT necessarily!) be an indication of a turning point.
I would like to underline that sudden volume dynamics change should not be used directly to predict the future trend, but rather should be used to check if the price really keeps its previous direction or it signifies the increased probability of the reversal.
Volume changes at certain levels are initiating, supporting and stopping the waves and patterns which are creating the market as we know it and thus being definitely worth at least keeping a close eye on the sudden changes of their dynamics.
This is my very first purely educational post and I hope it was helpful :-)
If you have any questions, feel free to ask in comments or PM me.
AUD/USD SELL 09/10/2017
AUD/USD also did not show any significant reaction of the labor market data in the USA on Friday. The only thing that we should note is the new support 0.7744 which contains large volume. Nevertheless, our previous scenario of opening short positions remains actual, but now we need to wait for the sharp breakdown of the support. A move should be supported by increased/large volume. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is 70 points.
The bottom line: short positions after a sure breakdown of the support.
TSI signaling potential VIX move. (Trend Shift Indicator)Rarely does TSI indicate strong green-over-red crossovers in CBOE:VIX derivatives.
TSI is for equities and not derivatives, however, this signal could be an early sign of some potential life in NASDAQ:TVIX and AMEX:UVXY etc.
Link to TSI below.
SPX500 price rejection at prior Week MedianHere, I offer a look at using the prior time frame Median as a means of bullish or bearish sentiment/trend.
The indicator plots PRIOR Daily, Weekly and Monthly Medians.
Currently, this week, we have Bearish Cross of the short term Daily Median below the prior Week Median give us an obvious bearish formation. Conversely, possible value in longer term view for Bulls.
Price has been rejected from the prior Weekly Median as we see an ascending wedge being formed. Point of exhaustion/explosion to play out very soon.
Gold – Again 1250 or escape from 1200-1300 band ???I marked the points where PA touched 1250 level since 2013_
Level 1250 has worked as a strange pivot point within 1200-1300 consolidation band. See how many times we saw 1250 during last four years.
Following FOMC meeting of last week, downward price action_ is favored. A critical event required to push the price back above 1300.
Otherwise as far as the price stays within 1200-1300 band, 1250 seems inevitable.
Long EUR - Anticipating Hawkish Draghi SpeechActually I do not believe Draghi's speech will be "very" hawkish. What gives me more confident to put this trade on is because the market may have oversold EUR. More particularly EURGBP (following PM Theresa May's last week comment).
Retail sentiment is short EUR (except for the EURNZD - which is due to NZ's mixed election result) so I want to go Long.
Technical levels: it is trading within the 0.879-0.88 support range (it has been a strong support since the GBP appreciation two weeks ago) and I put my SL below 0.875.
Long USDJPY - Anticipating continue strengthening USI expected USDJPY continue to drift upward today. Yesterday FOMC statement and Yellen's speech certainly helped a lot. Today is BOJ's turn and I really don't think they will reverse anything as their 2% inflation target is just still too far away. Actually since USDJPY strengthening, it helped push them toward their goal a bit closer and I think they will be more than happy to add to the fire by hinting a neutral to further QE from their side of the trade.
Sentiment wise, it's gonna be a bit hard to grasp as this is a tentative event. Nevertheless, from the Retail's positioning USD is net Long vs JPY mixed. In my opinion, this time the USDJPY is "under-longed". People should more bullish on this pair given the fundamental lined up and the Carry Trade potential.
I'm long 1/2 position now and gonna go long another 1/2 if price retrace to the Open at 112.2. My SL is 111.9 and TP is 113.4.