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Pivot

EURUSD before CPISome of the most important news for the market at the moment will be published today. Inflation data in the USA will be announced at 15:30 Bulgarian time. Regardless of the values, larger fluctuations are expected. Therefore, before important news, it is recommended to reduce the risk of active positions and avoid new trades. EURUSD continues its uptrend and 1.1080 is getting closer. Corrections and stop hunting below the previous bottom are entirely possible. We will look for new entries after the news!
by ForexTrendline
2
Long Trade in MRVLMarvell is a leading semiconductor stock whose products are used heavily in artificial intelligence applications. The stock surged 40% in two days following a good earnings report and shares have consolidated in a tight range ever since. Shares tried to breach the low of the base on June 23, and we saw nice buying to support the price. Volume remains low and price action is shallowing out nicely. Consider buying on a break above the short-term pivot (dashed line on chart) at 61.50. As long as the stock does not make a new low before then, you can use the June 23 low for a stop loss to risk roughly 8% on the trade.
NASDAQ:MRVLLong
by rossgivens
EURGBP Trading the Range - 0.852 convictionHey Traders! 👋 For Day 39/100 of our challenge, we will look at EURGBP short idea and how we can trade the range Technicals: - Prior to range, structure was bearish - Strongly rejected 0.863 key level - Now retesting middle limit pivot area - 79% retracement rejected as well - Expecting the fill of range bottom at 0.852 Fundamentals: 🇪🇺 Despite ECB remaining hawkish, recent data have been negative in both inflation and labor. This gives ECB less room to be hawkish/raise rates further compared to BoE 🇬🇧 The main downside risk for BoE now is the aggressive pricing in of peak rates by the rate markets. However, BoE has done a great job in meeting expectations lately: surprise hike of 50bp and the lack of push back on aggressive rate markets. The UK has also been seeing positive data recently which gives them more room to raise rates to battle inflation. Now, a hard landing due to aggressive rate hikes is also another risk. But it seems that the market isn't paying much attention to that as much as inflation currently. So that leaves us with the EURGBP short expectations this week. Any changes in catalysts is possible with inflation data from around the world is released. So stay safe, and see you tomorrow 👍
Short
by rob_WRLD_
GBPJPY Road to 184.4 (UPDATE)Hey Traders! 👋 For Day 38/100 of our challenge, we will look at an update on our GBPJPY long idea we sent last week. Technicals: (update to tagged idea) - We've rejected the 62% fib retracement - Created a new high above 182.500 - Expecting this break of high to clear 184.4 - If 181.2 is broken to the downside, invalid idea *** Note that this trade was based on last week's context. Changes in fundamentals have not yet been accounted for. Rob's notes: Was gone for a while as I had to fix my scheduling the past few days. All will be back to normal programming now. Let's complete this 100 days
Long
by rob_WRLD_
USDJPY What will happen in the near future?🌟The USDJPY is in a Bullish phase by ⤵️⤵️ 🌟 Bullish signals are: - Bullish Cup & Handle - Bullish Pennant - Dynamic Support zone - Pivot R1 monthly - Ascending Triangle - moving EMA 20 50 ✅TARGETS: 142,148 ⭐ Note if the PRZ is broken downwards with the strength of Bearish candles from bottom Of the PRZ zone , this analysis of ours will be failed. ⏮️Previous Analysis⏮️ ✅If this post was useful for you, like it ❤️ and if you think it is useful for your friends, be sure to send it to them. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 🌍Thank you for seeing idea . Have a nice day and Good luck.
Long
by CobraVanguard
7
Central banks navigate the last stretch of the tightening cycleThis week we learnt how vital Central Bank communication is to global financial markets. The trio of central banks – The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held their respective meetings. Each of the central banks tried to convey how they will navigate monetary policy amidst a slowing economy and avoid a hard landing. China takes small steps to shore up the recovery Even the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the markets this week, by announcing a cut in the 7-day Open Market Operations (OMO) by 10Bps to 1.9%1 which paved the way for another cut to the one-year medium term lending facility rate by 10Bps to 2.65%2. These recent developments mark a more proactive stance by Chinese policy makers in trying to tackle the Chinese slowdown in activity since the re-opening. Clearly more is needed. Policymakers are soliciting opinions from business leaders and economists on how to revitalise the economy in a number of urgent meetings3. While the Fed and ECB are trying to tame inflation, China has the opposite problem as inflation remains low. Manufacturing remains weak, exports are slowing, and credit growth is cooling. This is why it’s no surprise that the markets are prepping for a broader package of stimulus targeted towards the ailing property sector. A hawkish skip for the Fed The recent flurry of economic reports continues to show the US economy is holding up but losing steam, supporting the Fed’s approach of changing the pace of its policy tightening. The Fed kept the fed funds rate in range of 5-5.25%, by unanimous vote, in line with market expectations after 10 straight hikes dating back to March 2022. The Fed’s dot plot showed the median rate at 5.6% versus 5.1% a month back. In the summary of economic projections, the median unemployment rate forecast was revised lower from 4.5% to 4.1% by the end of 2023 while the core inflation rate was revised higher from 3.6% to 3.9% making the case for more hikes this year. This clearly was a hawkish skip. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was careful to point out that no decision was made on a July hike, but he did say it is a live meeting, leading the market to increase the probability of a move. What surprised me the most, was that Powell said rate cuts would be a couple of years out which is at odds with the dot plot forecast of 100Bps of cuts in 2024. Senior Economist to WisdomTree Jeremy Siegel believes the Fed is done hiking and that alternative inflation metrics which incorporate real time housing inputs show inflation running at 1.4% instead of 4.1%. This is based on alternative shelter inflation calculations using Case Shiller Housing and Zillow rent annualized at 0.5% instead of the 8% that is biasing Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI higher. ECB’s revised inflation forecasts remain at odds After raising the deposit rate by 25Bps to 3.5%, the ECB was a lot clearer than the Fed in signalling that rate hikes are almost certain next month on July 27. The ECB remains too optimistic on growth, reducing their projection for 2023 real GDP to only 0.9% (from 1% in its March projections). While I would agree with the ECB’s view that (1) mostly labour-intensive services will support economic growth over the next two years and (2) the current hump in wage inflation will show up via higher prices for these services, I remain sceptical amidst the global headwinds for manufacturing, and a slower pace of overall growth could keep inflation as high as the ECB now projects. While wages are likely to accelerate slightly above 5% in 2023, they should begin declining to 4% yoy by late 2024. We believe, if core inflation continues to recede in the coming months and the real economy grows at 0.4% in 2023, the ECB will stay put in September after a final move next month. As expected, the ECB confirmed that it will stop to reinvest proceeds from maturing bonds under its standard Asset Purchase Programme (APP) from July onwards. It won’t offer new long term liquidity injections upon the expiry of the €477Bn of a TLTRO III liquidity measure on 28 June 2023. BOJ sits tight As expected, the BOJ kept all key policy settings unchanged, including the +/-50Bps band around the zero% Japanese Government Bond JGB yield target. Since taking the helm in April 2023, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the high cost of premature tightening as the economy is finally seeing green shoots toward sustainable inflation. In contrast to the ECB, the BoJ's latest assessment and outlook for the economy and inflation were also largely unchanged from their update in the April Outlook Report. The BoJ continues to note "extremely high uncertainties" surrounding economies and financial markets at home and abroad." Japanese equity markets reacted positively to the BOJ’s status quo stance on monetary policy. Looking ahead, the Fed’s potential pivot back to a hawkish mode versus the BOJ’s dovish perseverance could pave the way for further upside for Japanese equities owing to the underlying weakness in the Yen versus the US dollar. Sources 1 Bloomberg on June 13, 2023 2 Bloomberg on June 15, 2023 3 Bloomberg on June 14, 2023
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by aneekaguptaWTE