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Pivot

Bubble or NothingThe past two weeks have been largely uneventful as the market has seen a sustained period of low volatility and Bitcoin has been trading between the $16,250 support and the $17,000 resistance. From a technical perspective, the MACD indicator just crossed above its signal line. The last time this happened, the market saw a short-term increase in bullish momentum. Bulls will be hoping this momentum can play out and bitcoin can finally break above the $17,000 level and reach new range highs. Bears will be looking for a break below $16,250 which would only leave $15,500 as the last major support before $14,000. The RSI has still remained relatively neutral and has not provided any major support for either potential scenario as of yet. There has been an ongoing conversation as to whether the market will see an ‘echo bubble’ (a post-bubble rally that results in another, smaller bubble) in 2023. The spread between market expectations for a Fed pivot in H2 2023 could build expectations which might give confidence to the bulls. This is supported by the Federal Reserve recently starting to temper rate hikes from 75bps increases to a 50bps hike. However, there is evidence that markets tend to bottom after the Fed makes its pivot, not before. This would strengthen the case that we have not yet reached the lows of this current bear market. Another major event giving traders food for thought is China’s opening up from COVID restrictions. Will this prove inflationary for the world economy and potentially undermine the effect of rate hikes as Chinese citizens rush to spend money after 2 years of lockdowns? The impact of these events is worth following closely. Whether the market sees an echo bubble or not, one event that will have a major bearing on short-term market direction is the January 18th announcement on CPI inflation. Many traders will be looking for inflation to come in soft as this will grant risk assets, such as bitcoin, some relief whilst simultaneously causing the dollar and bond yields to fall. Regardless of what inflation comes in at, traders will want to exercise caution in leveraged positions at this time as volatility will most certainly be high around the announcement.
by Coinrule
1
PDD - Trade the trendBroke up the neckline on 28 November and a retest near it on 28 December (point C). Looks ready to break above B again soon. Unlike previous steep pullbacks before the breakup of the neckline, this one is shallow (at only 23.6% retracement), a sign that an uptrend momentum is underway. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by Juliac
9
Early entry in small cap health services, $MEDPSince late 2021 NASDAQ:MEDP is being forming a head & shoulders base with pivot buy above $230. This is the beahvior of a potential leader. It shows when comparing it against the AMEX:IWO as is still in a downtrend. The play for me would be to buy 1/2 or 1/3 of a position just above yesterday's high with a STOP-LOSS below $196. And then add at the $230 pivot. Medpace Holdings is ranked #1 in its industry by IBD. I recomend to also check NYSE:VPG which is also setting up. Its being hard for small caps to get demand as the indices are still in downtrends making the sentiment stay bearish. But as JC Parets always likes to remember, "is a market of stocks, not a stock market".
NASDAQ:MEDPLong
by dpuleo19
Trade Ascending Parallel Channel With 3 Points + Pivot PointTrade Ascending Parallel Channel With 3 Points + Pivot Point Indicator Connect your three points using the parallel channel. First, connect two points which are your higher lows. Next, connect the third point which is the swing high. The swing high is the higher high. In this example, a pin bar formed at the higher low. Pin Bar wick touches pivot point level and channel support level. Volume Indicator is "green" and pin bar is "white." Conditions are great to enter the market at pin bar closing price.
Education
by TradeLive-
✅WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2023❓ ✅2022 was a difficult year but it has almost ended, so it is natural for us to ask what has 2023 in stock for us! The answer lays in the structure that we both love and hate and it's the FED. Yes, the markets are now governed not by fundamentals and value but by the decision of a bunch of people in suits at the FED. However, we are traders and our job is not to lament the current state of affairs but to make money off of it! But how? Well, according to my analysis, the FED will pivit in the first half of 2023 . After that, the only direction the markets will know is UP! Everything from Gold to Stocks to Crypto will start it's upward journey creating another bubble bigger and more dangerous than the previous one. And while all the sensible people know that this is unsustainable and that this house of cards will one day collapse on our heads, we should remember one of the most profound proverbs of the financial world: The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent! So let's use the irrationality and the exuberance of the current system to fill up our coffers while we can. After the FED pivots I will start slowly buying assets and I recommend you to do follow my lead! Happy New Year to you and your families!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProSignalsFx
15
BITCOIN 2023: When To Buy? Hello,Traders! I'll just say that while this post is about BITCOIN what I say here applies to all assets Including stocks, real estate, bonds, precious metals. Many people are still expecting some sort of 2008 style crash of the markets because the economy is going from bad to worse. However, while we are already in the recession and the only person who refuses to see that is Jerome Powell of the FED, this has little to no influence on the modern markets which have been divorced from the real economy for quite some time. So once the FED pivots, and I am expecting this to happen no later than Mid 2023, this will tell the markets that we are again looking at the interest rates lowering cycle which will inevitably make the markets rally . And the rising tide lifts all boats so all the assets will start going up. Crypto, stocks, bonds, Gold. The only difference will be in the rate of return you can get. And clearly, the crypto market which is now the most depressed one will make the biggest gains. So If you don't have much capital, then buying stocks or gold will not make you rich. However, buying crypto, might do the trick! So here is the trading plan for 2023: wait till the FED lowers rates for the first time then just buy the assets you can get your hands on and wait. Happy New Year, And see you in 2023!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
7
Just Sharing my view EUR/JPYI Will not place this trade because the time of the year.. and bank holiday but just sharing my view and how a setup should look like my trading rules / system is : buy / sell on pivot points (Weekly or Monthly) go with the Daily trend drill down to 4H and 1H view look for long wick bar or other Price Action signal also using chart pattern like : like Flag or Wedge one good setup is Flag to Pivot Risking 20-30pips max and RR Should be at least 1.5
Short
by ShlomoYahbes
100% profitable strategy to find lows of the marketIt all starts with the basics, SUPPORT. My theory is, in order to find a bottom in this bear market, we must reach an area of support that has never been tested before. I'm using the high timeframe of 12M on SPX for example. How I determine a pivot low (or support) is a 3-candle pattern. The middle candle being lower than the one before and after it is the pivot low. (green lines) Every time a candle falls down through a pivot low that has not been touched, you will see the 'Untested Low' buy signal on the open of the next candle. If you were to buy on the candle of the signal, it will either be the next pivot low or the candle after it, meaning this would be a profitable buy! You can even go down to lower timeframe to confirm entry with the same strategy. This untested low signal is what I will be looking for to indicate a long term buying entry in this current market. ** LINES AND SIGNALS CREATED BY THE HAZEL HERITAGE STRATEGY **
SP:SPXLong
by jeanius_tech
1
Time and Price Pivots - XRPHello traders, this chart is an exercise observing the relationship between time and price. Specifically, we are observing how past price behavior may forecast future highs and lows. For this example I've picked XRP/USDT on MEXC since that is what I use to trade currently but this can be done on any instrument/chart and repeating this on the exchanges should yield similar results. First let me break-down how this is constructed. If the information seems vague - I'd be happy to do a tutorial once I have enough TradingView reputation to post pictures for a tutorial to do a true break-down. Anyway, we first start by: Drawing a horizontal line on the range low and high. We then draw a trendline from the low to the high and observe the angle of the line. Regarding angles and chart scaling: It is important to note that this process should be done with either a locked chart scale or extreme restrain of scaling time and price bars. The above example was done on a logarithmic chart. I have not tested yet to see if the results are really any difference from a locked chart. However, the important thing to grasp is that the angles are all relative to your current scale. So when you are squaring the range , as I will mention shortly, the 90 degree angle you form is relative to your current scale and if changed will be relative to that one, and so on and so forth. There is a slightly degree of inaccuracy, but I think that mostly has to do with how TradingView tools seem to "snap" regardless of magnet settings. Continuing on: We square the high and low of the range by forming a 90 degree angle from the trendline on the high and low. We then find the 1/2 angle (45 degrees) and draw these as a trend line for the high and the low Continue to divide the space between the angles this from both the high and low. A Gann fan with the 1/2 point aligned with the 45 degree line can be sufficient. Take note of a few things: Where angles intersect the high and low of the range. Where angles intersect each other. Observe what happened at these moments in time. You will notice a pattern of highs and lows forming at these moments in time. The angles provide dynamic support and resistance, whilst the intersection provide us a time when the market pivots. This can be done on any timeframe. Now, some could argue, "If I divide my chart up a million times, then of course I'll hit highs and lows." Yes, but I didn't. In fact we only have 20 angles or so on this chart where we can derive with accuracy these pivot points. Almost all intersections are at a high or low. I would also add that these points don't mean something HAS to happen , but these should be areas of interest where it is HIGHER probability for market to shift. Using this data we can essentially forecast potential points time where we could expect shifts in the market - a new high or low. I have March of 2023 marked as a potential area of interest next year as we have two of our major lines intersecting then.
by Ictons
FED PIVOT conclusion= BUY/SELL setupFED PIVOT conclusion to take ENTRY: FED PIVOT 2022 looks similar to 1973: PIVOT MONTH=if occur in DECEMBER. POSSIBILITY= <30% rise(BULL TRAP) (17.44% already happened) till JANUARY followed by around 40% CRASH. FED PIVOT 2007: PIVOT MONTH=AUGUST. 14.99% rise till october followed by 57.69% CRASH. FED PIVOT 2000: PIVOT MONTH=DECEMBER. 10.31% rise(BULL TRAP) till JANUARY followed by 44.44% CRASH. FED PIVOT 1973: PIVOT MONTH=OCTOBER. 13.11% rise(BULL TRAP) already happened till OCTOBER followed by 45.97% CRASH.
TVC:SPXShort
by cryptopreet
4
SPY Pivot PointSPY is at a pivot point right now and everyone is holding their breath as to what will happen. The trend has not yet broken because according to the DOW theory, it is a downtrend when you have a lower high and a lower low. In this case, the trend continues. Despite the data that came out on Friday, the market still has a room to fall. There is a Fed meeting in mid-December, which will determine whether they will continue to tighten the economy at the same pace or start reducing the rate hike. A cooling in the inflation numbers is noticeable, but at a very slow pace given the fed funds rate. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of 2023 the fed funds rate reaches double digits to meet the Fed's 2% inflation target.
AMEX:SPYShort
by sylvestertsochev26
Is the US Economy Actually adding more jobs than expected?If you have been living under a rock for the past few days, unless you are not an economic savvy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its newest Non-Farm Payrolls much above the expectation. The NFP rose by 263,000 last month, compared with an expected 200,000. At first, my reaction was that the FED will have to keep raising interest rates, especially as the US dollar reacted to this news by jumping 0.8%. However, I was skeptical as to how NFP jobs increased but the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7% in an economy that is starting to experience drawdowns from inflation. So I made a research to analyze exactly what is going on. 1. What is happening in the US labor market? Today the NFP is at ~270,000 jobs, similar to mid-2018 when the labor market was defined as strong. It is much lower than the peak job creation in 2021 but 70,000 extra jobs compared to the expectation is a major difference. 2. What is happening with wage growth in the US labor market? Wage growth has increased by 0.6% month-over-month. This is way too strong for the FED's target of 2% in inflation. But why is it so high? Well, one of the reasons is that the supply of labor is not coming back. The participation rate remains way below pre-pandemic levels, even when accounting for an aging population. So if labor participation is low, job creation must be low to slow inflation, yet, the labor market appears to be healthy. Nonetheless, I wrote an analysis in October challenging the FED's data collection on job creation. "Once consumers have reached their credit limit, they will most likely look for another job. “About 38% of American workers have looked for a second job, while an additional 14% plan to” (LA Time, 2022). This justifies the reasons for more job creation in the U.S. economy as emphasized by the Biden Administration and the Fed, however, it is mostly people looking for a second or third job." Credit debt is increasing at an all-time high due to inflation. "U.S. households are spending $445 more every month due to inflation" (Lacurci G, 2022). So those who cannot keep up with their bills have to work more jobs or extra time. This makes total sense, especially when the Household Job Survey shows no jobs added in the past 8 months, while the Establishment Survey shows 2.7 million jobs added, which is the one used by the FED. Why such a large difference between the Household Job Survey and Establishment Survey? The answer lies in how the different surveys are run. For instance, the household survey counts people holding multiple jobs as one employed person. While the establishment survey counts all the jobs created, even if it is a second or third job. Based on the analysis I previously published, at least 700,000 Americans have had a second or third job in the last 12 months to make ends meet. 3. Where are jobs being created and lost? Being created: leisure, government, education, and healthcare. Being lost: goods, transportation, retail, construction, and utilities. Conclusion: The NFP survey is informing the market about Powell's next decision in December. The strong nominal wage growth and "strong" job creation argue there could be further rate hikes and hawkish talk from grandfather Powell. It is imminent before we will start to see weaknesses in the labor market. It is imperative to understand when will the turnover point of the labor market be and how bad to best position yourself, hence, we can start to see a FED pivot in early 2023 as the labor market weakens. This is for personal recording but feel free to comment and argue.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by ssavi
GOOG - Tide could be turningGOOG's monthly chart formed a bullish divergence and closed with a bullish "pin bar" in November. We are likely to see more upside momentum for this month, although it could pause and consolidate when it hits the near term horizontal resistence around 104-105, then may (or may not) dip back towards 93 (recently pivot low), before eventually breaking higher. Immediately support is currently at 93. Turn cautious if it dips below here. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by Juliac
1