The bearish scenario for TON has been activatedThis analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
We were counting on the flip zone for the continuation of the uptrend, but this zone was strongly broken.
We are not biased toward any analysis; we simply share what the chart shows us and always strive to reduce our errors and find the correct market direction.
If a pullback toward the flip zone occurs, we can look for sell/short positions.
The best zone for buying and investing is the green area. There is a liquidity pool at the bottom of the chart, which is expected to be swept in the coming weeks.
The closure of a daily candle below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Pivot Points
Investing in Restructured Bonds: The Case of At Home Group Inc.At Home Group Inc., a home decor retailer, has undergone significant restructuring since being acquired by private equity firm Hellman & Friedman (H&F). Previously a publicly traded company, At Home was taken private in a $2.8 billion deal, allowing for strategic changes without the pressure of quarterly earnings reports. This shift has provided the company with greater flexibility to refine its business model, optimize operations, and navigate the challenges of the home furnishings market.
As part of its financial restructuring, At Home Group issued first-lien bonds with a 7.125% cash coupon and an 8.625% PIK coupon option, maturing in May 2028. Currently, these bonds are trading at 40-45% of their nominal value, presenting a yield-to-maturity of nearly 40%. This high yield reflects both the potential upside and inherent risks associated with investing in a leveraged private company. The first-lien nature of the debt offers bondholders a priority claim on the company’s assets, providing an added layer of security in the event of financial distress.
Despite the promising aspects of this investment, challenges remain. As a private entity, At Home Group has limited financial disclosure, making it harder for investors to gauge its financial health and strategic execution. Additionally, the company operates in a highly competitive space, contending with major industry players such as IKEA and HomeGoods. Furthermore, home furnishings and decor are cyclical sectors, heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, consumer spending, and housing market trends.
However, At Home Group’s restructuring under H&F could be a catalyst for long-term stability and growth. Hellman & Friedman has a strong track record in successfully repositioning struggling businesses, which could enhance At Home’s operational efficiency and financial performance. If the company executes its turnaround strategy effectively, the bonds could represent a compelling opportunity for high-yield investors seeking structured downside protection. While uncertainties persist, the combination of strong private equity backing and attractive bond yields makes this an investment worth considering for those with a high-risk tolerance.
2-Day Green Dot Pivot – Trend ReversalWe just printed a 2-day green dot, signaling a potential end to the altcoin bleeding
Last time this signal appeared, we saw a 300%+ rally. 📉➡️📈
With 2025 altseason on the horizon, this could be the early warning sign smart money is watching. Time to position accordingly. 🎯
EURCAD Resistance , All eyes on SellingHello Traders
In This Chart EURCAD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today EURCAD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (EURCAD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURCAD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
AUD/USD: Precision Entry Loading….4H bulls are in full control—momentum is pushing, and I’m not here to question it. Dropped to the 30M, got my CHoCH, and now structure is fully bullish.
Now? Just waiting. Price needs to sweep inducement, then I’ll step in off the order block after my final 5M confirmation. No rushing, no second-guessing—just letting price do what it has to do.
Most traders chase. I let price come to me. Let’s see if AUD wants to play its part.
#AUDUSD #SMC #SmartMoney #OrderBlocks #LiquiditySweep #PriceAction
Bless Trading!
Buy Setup Retrospective: Missed Entry but good setupI missed the entry for this trade, but I like the analysis and setup. This trade aligns perfectly with my strategy—buying or selling from pivot lines (preferably monthly) with a 20-30 pip risk and an RR > 2.
Even though I didn’t take this trade, I’m sharing it as an example of what to look for in the markets.
GBP USD - Buy Setup (retrosppective)I missed the entry for this trade, but I like the analysis and setup. This trade aligns perfectly with my strategy—buying or selling from pivot lines (preferably monthly ) with a 20-30 pip risk and an RR > 2 .
Even though I didn’t take this trade, I’m sharing it as an example of what to look for in the markets.
Gold is expected to continue to fall to the 2870-2860 regionAs I Stated in My Previous Analysis,gold has shown clear rejection signals around the 2942 and 2929 levels, indicating the presence of selling pressure and panic-driven resistance. Based on the current market structure, a noticeable shift in trend is emerging, with the price action gradually shifting downward.
Following the trading strategy I shared in my previous update, short positions initiated around the 2910-2920 resistance zone have played out well, as gold has already declined as expected, reaching a low of 2894. If gold fails to break above the 2910-2920 zone, further downside movement toward the 2870-2860 region remains highly likely.
Bros, did you follow my short trade on gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Short gold after reboundDear Traders,
After retracing to the 2881 level, gold has rebounded and is currently extending its recovery above 2907. It is evident that as prices push higher, bearish forces are actively countering the move, and some profit-taking is taking place. The candlestick chart shows clear rejection signals near the 2942 and 2929 levels, indicating notable selling pressure and fear-induced resistance at higher levels.
For short-term trading, short positions can be considered within the 2910-2920 range. I believe that before resuming its uptrend, gold may still need to retest the validity of the 2900 support level. Furthermore, if downside momentum persists, there remains a possibility of further testing the 2870-2860 region.
Bros, do you have the courage to short gold with me? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
NASDAQ in an important multi-month congestioncontext
I prefer trading individual stocks to indices because indices behave in a counterintuitive way. they work well with reversion-to-the-mean strategies as they happen to represent an aggregate picture, and that is what aggregates do.
opinion
indices are amazing at pointing out consolidation and expansion phases. they do this naturally as stocks move in bursts, mostly in unison.
observation and implication
NASDAQ approaches a critical period of congestion. an upside breakout will mean a further rally for the magnificent 8 (or as I call them, titans); and for RUT2000.
a downward break would mean the inception of a bearish trend. titans shall fall, and eventually they will drag down all the frontrunners. the stocks to go up would be in the utility, energy, aerospace and defence (of course) sectors. stocks hidden from the average sigma beta capsicum hedge funds will have some time to react, hopefully.
the trade
speculation aside,
- bullish on NAS if price breaks above $22900
- bearish on NAS if price breaks below $20450
XLMUSD - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
0.1625 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 0.3030 on 02/09/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 0.3552, 0.3875, 0.4521 and more heights is expected.
Take Profits:
0.3552
0.3875
0.4521
0.4965
0.5602
0.6080
0.6905
0.7975
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ARC analysis (4H)From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, it seems that ARC's correction has begun.
Based on the correction, a 3D pattern appears to be forming, with the third drive potentially completing in the green zone, where we can look for buy/long positions.
In this area, upon receiving a trigger, sell/short positions can also be considered.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You