Pivot Points
YM (US30): Trend in daily time framePlease pay special attention to the accurate trend, channel, and colored levels.
Its very sensitive setup, ...............<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Be careful
BEST
MT
ADAUSDT: Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
SUSDT: trend in 2H time frames The color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
DOGEUSDT: Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
NZD/USD Bears Box Borken Take the Lead After Trendline BreakThe New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar currency pair on the two-hour chart has broken below an ascending trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The short position was taken after price action failed to sustain above the trendline, confirming bearish strength.
The entry was executed near 0.57076, following the breakdown, with the stop-loss placed above recent highs to manage risk effectively. The take-profit target is positioned at 0.55459, aligning with a previous demand zone that may act as support.
This setup reflects a trend reversal as buyers lose control and sellers gain momentum. As long as the price remains below the broken trendline, the short position remains valid, with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio supporting the trade's potential.
BTCUSDT IMPORTANT PRICE LEVEL BTCUSD currently formed an inside bearish candle and the daily ADL is moving horizontally (possible Distribution). The bullish scenario is to grab liquidity and continue the uptrend and the bearish scenario is to continue its decline toward the OB and balance multiple FVG blocks . If the daily close is outside the channel and below the 50% level then the price will have a higher probability to decline deeper but if the price touches the 50% level and grab liquidity and form an IFC candle then the up trend will have a higher probability to continue .
The Weekly/Daily/4H market structure are still in a strong uptrend
Good LUck
Clear Short bias on NQ I was about to post this earlier but was quite busy, anyways I have my targets set and bias determined, last week has shown some weakness by the moment the markets closed as we have received the strong short reaction from the median of the bearish breaker.
We have also opened with significant NWOG which I expect to be partially retraced and use it as the range to be positioned short, however, not thoughtless. I will be looking after this range because the retracement levels will tell us of the following dynamic, we can surely surge now and breakdown to the sellside but this will be very bearish and weakness signal which I believe we are unlikely to see unless there is some gigantic manipulation coming in which will drown the markets down.
I expect the level of 20700 to be swept after which I will look at the price action dynamic to determine the future direction
AAVEUSDT Breakdown Imminent ? Bearish Setup AAVE/USDT perpetual contract on the 2-hour timeframe presents a descending channel formation in the. The price has been respecting the upper and lower trendlines, showing multiple rejections at both levels. Currently, the price is testing the lower boundary of the channel, and a breakdown could trigger further downside momentum.
The short setup suggests a bearish continuation if the price breaks below the lower trendline. The entry point is positioned around the 264.57 level, with a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high to manage risk. The take-profit zone is projected toward 221.84, aligning with the next significant support level.
Key factors to consider
The price is forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming the downtrend structure.
The red zone represents the stop-loss area, ensuring risk management in case of reversal.
The blue zone marks the potential profit-taking region, which aligns with a strong demand zone.
If a breakdown occurs with strong bearish volume, it could accelerate the move toward the target zone.
A potential retest of the broken support level could offer additional confirmation before further downside.
Traders should monitor volume and market sentiment before entering the trade, ensuring that bearish momentum supports the continuation of the trend.
SOLUSD | Bullish Bat PatternBullish Bat Pattern on SOLUSD
I’m currently tracking a Bullish Bat pattern on the SOLUSD chart, with price nearing the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). In addition to the harmonic structure itself, I’m looking for RSI divergence and DMI Delta shifts as confluence signals that buyers might step in.
1. Pattern Overview
• The Bullish Bat typically consists of X–A–B–C–D legs, with the D point (the PRZ) often completing near the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the XA leg.
• Reversal at the PRZ can signal a potential upswing if confirmed by price action and supportive indicators.
2. Key Confluence Indicators
• RSI Divergence
• I’m monitoring the RSI (Relative Strength Index) to see if it prints higher lows while price makes lower lows. Such a bullish divergence often hints that downward momentum is fading.
• DMI Delta
• A bullish shift in DMI Delta occurs when +DI (positive directional index) starts outpacing –DI (negative directional index), or the spread between them widens in favor of buyers.
• If the DMI Delta transitions positively around the PRZ, it reinforces the idea that bullish pressure is building.
3. Fibonacci Levels & PRZ
• XA Retracement: B commonly retraces 38.2%–50% of XA in a textbook Bat.
• CD Extension: The final leg (CD) often extends 1.618–2.618 of AB, converging near the 88.6% retracement of XA.
• Keep an eye on these Fibonacci confluences. If price consistently holds above the PRZ with bullish candlesticks, it can signal the market is ready to turn.
4. Trade Setup
• Entry: Consider entering after confirming bullish divergence on RSI, a bullish DMI Delta crossover, or a candle close above a key short-term resistance.
• Stop-Loss: Commonly placed just below the D point or the most recent swing low, depending on personal risk tolerance.
• Take-Profit Levels:
• First TP near the B point or ~38.2% retracement of the AD leg.
• Second TP near 61.8%–78.6% of the AD leg if momentum remains strong.
• Risk Management: As always, position size should align with your overall risk profile (1%–2% of account balance per trade is typical).
5. Market Context & Final Thoughts
• Larger Timeframe Check: Confirm that higher timeframes (4H, 1D) support a bullish bias. A mismatch in trends can weaken the pattern’s reliability.
• News & Sentiment: Crypto moves fast—keep an eye on headlines or broader market sentiment, which can accelerate or negate technical setups.
Conclusion:
If RSI divergence and DMI Delta shifts align with the Bullish Bat PRZ, we may see a reversal to the upside on SOLUSD. However, always remain flexible and ready to adjust if the market invalidates the pattern.
Disclaimer:
This post is for educational and illustrative purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk prudently.
XRP/USD -Learnig from Mistakes and Refining Entries (30M TF)In trading, losses are just as important as wins when it comes to learning and improving.
Here's a breakdown of a recent setup I analyzed on XRP/USD that didn't play out as planned-and how I refined my approach to get it right.
What Went Wrong (Bottom Chart):
=I initially identified a break of Major Higher Low (HL) with a strong volume candle.
=I assumed this would lead to bearish momentum toward my target, but price failed to deliver.
=The issue? I overlooked key liquidity points and entered permaturely without a proper confirmation of intent.
What Worked (Top Chart):
=After reviewing the chart, I spotted the correct setup: a proper HL break, which swept Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) / (IDM).
=Price tapped into a well-defined supply zone (order block) after taking liquidity, signaling a high-probability reversal.
=This approch aligned with the market structure and led to TP being smashed.
Key Takeaways:
1. Watch for liquidity sweeps and inducements before committing to a trade.
2. Confirm intent by combining structure breaks (CHoCH) with zones of interest like supply/demand zones.
3. Review losses thoroughly-they often hold the key to improving your entries and view.
Let me know your thoughts, or feel free to share your experiences below. Always learning, always evolving!
Large Bearish idea for current Bitcoin cycle.On the Daily chart very noticeable Double Top ~$107k. Certainly, short term move towards 93k. Afterwards probably the decision to make that will change the outlook of the next 1-2 years.
$85-86k could mean as first support. Then with the break of it, reaching low 70s and high $60s (~530 day downtrend will be near complete). If it were to continue tumble close to $55k (which I don't think it will), I am personally not going to hasitate for a long time to grab as much as I possibly can.
I'm convinced we'll be more than alright after this big Bear Trend.
USDCHF - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
0.89147 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 0.89147 is broken.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 0.89645 on 01/27/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 0.91497, 0.92218, 0.94400 and more heights is expected.
Take Profits:
0.85510
0.86286
0.87474
0.88195
0.89147
0.90367
0.91497
0.92218
0.94400
0.96000
0.99200
1.01453
__________________________________________
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Election Rally Price BalanceThis is simple, Trumps Election win caused a massive rally with no retrace back to November 6th. We have to balance out that price action before we break the ceiling of $4,000. I also believe we had a massive gain on Crypto New Comers and this is the way they will get wiped out. Call it a Bear Trap, Shakeout, Liquidator. We will eventually climb back up.
Took an L on XRP/USD - Lessons Learned!Trading is a journey, and not every trade is a winner. My recent XRP/USD position didn’t play out as expected. I went in with a bullish bias off the 4H timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) for direction and entry. My analysis was aligned with inducements, CHoCH, and order block retests, but the market had other plans this time.
Key Takeaways:
1️⃣ Stick to the Plan: The setup followed my strategy, and though it didn’t work out, I trust my process. Losses are part of trading.
2️⃣ Risk Management is King: Keeping my risk low ensured this loss didn’t impact my account too heavily.
3️⃣ Market Lessons: Every loss is an opportunity to refine, reflect, and improve for the next move.
Even the best setups can fail, but consistency and discipline keep us in the game. The journey continues!
If you’ve been trading XRP/USD or faced a similar outcome, feel free to share your thoughts or feedback. Let’s grow together as traders.
#TradingView #XRPUSD #Crypto #Losses #SMC #Forex
Bless Trading!
ETH Secondary trend. Channel. Potential triangle. 25 12 24Logarithm. Time frame 3 days.
With altcoins (overflow of profits from bitcoin, now) along with XRP this is asset #1 for pumping, the reason for this is liquidity, which is extremely necessary for large capital. The average price of 1 distribution zone is conditionally 10 thousand. These are not the maximums of the cycle.
When the price lingers in this zone and there is a massive positive news background, all L2 assets, which are now in their accumulation zones, or in retests of breakout zones, will "fly" to super pumps (this is what it is). In percentage terms, they will show an order of magnitude greater profit in their distribution zones. Remember, as a rule, such assets (low liquidity) are first pumped by an aggressive pump (to leave in parts, without regret) by a huge %, and only then is a distribution zone formed on a rollback (channel, triangle ...) (hope for a huge profit on the continuation of the pump).
This idea is a continuation of this idea (which I can't update) of a secondary trend, the goals of which have been achieved with utmost precision:
ETH/USD Secondary trend. Bullish triangle. Breakout. Target 96% 11 11 2023
It is worth noting that now in the news background: "ether is bad" , huge fake short positions for the news background. Many crypto media personalities speak negatively about the “prospects” of this very promising cryptocurrency of the “American” (Jewish) transnational financial conglomerate JPMorgan Chase (size of depository assets — $ 32.4 trillion, size of assets under administration — $ 7.7 trillion, etc.). What kind of lack of prospects can we talk about??
If they “stink” a lot to create public opinion, then there is probably an interested party in this. That is, it is worth doing everything the opposite of what they want to inspire, and as a result, tilt supply/demand in a favorable direction, which, as a rule, is always unprofitable for most market participants.
If you are an investor , then buy at any price (you can use martingale in parts, or place trigger orders for a breakthrough of important zones), and do not be interested in the opinion of the majority (meaningless market noise) and the news background (manipulation, deception). Sell in the distribution zone (time is known in advance when, 2 zones) with a huge profit, as for a liquid trading instrument.
If you are a small investor or trader , then pay attention to the L2 group of assets and ETC (big pump “stick”), and use ETH itself as an indicator of “when”.
Also, the idea shows an unlikely scenario, or rather two scenarios. Consider this in your risk management.
The idea of the main trend , published several years ago. Which, of course, is still relevant now. Everything develops organically, and extremely precisely according to plan.
ETH/USD Main trend Pump/dump cycles. Accumulation/Distribution 8 09 2022
Trend in general for clarity now.
locally this potential triangle (it doesn't exist yet) looks like this.
BTC - 1H Elliott Wave AnalysisGreetings, here is an update on the Elliott Wave Count for Bitcoin.
It seems the lower timeframe support area didn't hold and we are going down lower at the moment. As mentioned in the last update, a break of the support area indicated a reset of white Wave 2. In this case the correction might be unfolding as ABC displayed in red here.
The white Wave 2 support area sits between the 0.5 FIB at 97682.3 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 92667.2 USD. The next targets for red Wave C are the 1 to 1 FIB at 97680.0 USD, the 1.236 FIB at 95718.0 USD, the 1.382 FIB at 94523.9 USD and the 1.618 FIB at 92625.3 USD.
For the red Wave C we added a low timeframe count in displayed turquoise.
Technically we could've finished the five Waves but extensions are possible.
If we extend we want to see a Wave 4 now.
The support area for turquoise Wave 4 sits between the 0.236 FIB at 99973.6 USD and the 0.5 FIB at 102056.0 USD. If we touch the 0.618 FIB at 102986.8 USD the Wave 4 gets invalidated and we either have the low in or form a bigger correction.
Alternatively the white Wave 2 could still be in on the 27th January low at 97680.0 USD and the move up was orange Wave A and the sell of orange Wave B and next we would get orange Wave C. This is not the preferer count but we want to make you aware of it. :)
Noteworthy is that the red Wave C targets are perfectly in confluence with the white Wave 2 support area and additionally the 1 to 1 FIB target at 97680 is right on top of the last swing low.
Thanks for reading.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
XRP - 4H Elliott Wave AnalysisGreetings, here is an update of the Elliott Wave Count for XRP.
It seems the lower timeframe support area of white Wave 2 didn't hold and we are going down lower at the moment. As mentioned in the last update, a break of the white Wave 2 support area indicated a reset of blue Wave 2 in an extended correction displayed as red ABC.
The blue Wave 2 support area sits between the 0.5 FIB at 2.7350 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 2.4149 USD. The next target for red Wave C are the 1 to 1 FIB at 2.5130 USD.
For the red Wave C we added a low timeframe count in displayed turquoise.
Technically we could've finished the five Waves but extensions are possible.
If we extend we want to see a Wave 4 soon.
The support area for turquoise Wave 4 sits between the 0.236 FIB at 2.7981 USD and the 0.5 FIB at 2.9212 USD. If we touch the 0.618 FIB at 2.9763 USD the Wave 4 gets invalidated and the low is either in or we get a more complex corrective structure.
After blue Wave 2 finished we want to see a rally in blue Wave 3 which should take us above the previous ATH at 3.5505 USD.
Thanks for reading.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
XRP - 4H Elliott Wave AnalysisGreetings, this is our update for the 4H Elliott Wave Count!
We dipped into the blue Wave 2 support as we did expect it in our last Analysis.
It seems that for XRP the low of blue Wave 2 is in and we have seen the first impulsive reaction to it displayed as white Wave 1 here. Currently it seems as if we are working on the white Wave 2 in the pink ABC.
White Wave 2 support sit between the 0.5 FIB at 2.9370 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 2.7786 USD.
The correction seems to be unfolding in the pink ABC. Assume that pink Wave B is already in we can calculate targets for pink Wave C which are the 1 to 1 FIB at 2.9280 USD, the 1.236 FIB at 2.8804 USD, the 1.382 FIB at 2.8510 USD and the 1.618 FIB at 2.8034 USD.
After that we expect a rally in white Wave 3 which could take us to a new ATH.
On the chart we also calculate potential targets for the blue Wave 3 which sit at the 1 to 1 FIB at 3.7263 USD, the 1.236 FIB at 3.9788 USD, the 1.382 FIB at 4.1351 USD and the 4.3876 USD.
If we break about the white Wave 2 support we are probably extending the correction and resetting blue Wave 2. Blue Wave 2 support sits between the 0.5 FIB at 2.7992 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 2.4555 USD.
Be aware that we have high impact news later today.
Federal Funds Rate followed by the FOMC statement which can lead to volatility.
Thanks for reading.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
BTC - 4H Elliott Wave AnalysisGreetings, here is our 4H Elliott Wave Count for Bitcoin.
We briefly touched the 0.5 FIB at 97680 USD of our white Wave 2 support area.
It is unclear yet if the low is in but we technically can count a five wave move up on the lower timeframes. If the low is in we expect an impulse to the upside in a five wave move displayed in green here. The green Wave 1 seems to be in and we are working or finished the green Wave 2.
The green Wave 2 support sits between the 0.5 FIB at 100743.2 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 98996.5 USD. After green Wave 2 is in we expect a green Wave 3 which could take us close to the ATH.
It is possible that we get one more dip into the white Wave 2 support area before moving to the upside. But that wouldn't be a big issue as we still got some room.
The white Wave 2 support sits between the 0.5 FIB at 97682.3 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 92667.2 USD. Additionally we put the next or optimal target for the orange Wave Y on the chart which sits at the 1 to 1 FIB at 95594.1 USD.
Noteworthy is that the 1 to 1 FIB at 95594.1 USD of the orange Wave Y sit right on 0.618 FIB at 95613.1 USD of the white Wave 2 support. But technically we reached the minimum target for a orange Wave Y already at the 0.618 FIB at 99377.0 USD.
A break of the 0.786 FIB at 98996.5 USD of the green Wave 2 support area is the first indication that we will reset white Wave 2 lower.
Additionally we added some price targets to the upside which could function as resistances.
These sit at the 1.236 FIB at 112958.8 USD, the 1.382 FIB at 115760.8 USD and the 1.618 FIB at 120391.7 USD.
Be aware that we have high impact news later today.
Federal Funds Rate followed by the FOMC statement which can lead to volatility.
Thanks for reading.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
ARKUSDT Trendline Betrayal Bearish Plunge !Trendline Break
The chart shows a clear upward trendline that has been broken. This break indicates a potential shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish.
Retest Confirmation
After breaking the trendline, the price retraced upward, testing the previous trendline as resistance (red zone). This is a classic confirmation for a short setup.
Entry and Risk Zone
Entry :The short position is initiated just below the retest of the trendline, around the price of 0.5510.
Stop-Loss : Placed slightly above the retest zone, around 0.5897, to minimize risk if the price reclaims the trendline.
Target Zone
The blue area indicates the take-profit target, with a potential level around 0.3908. This level might have been chosen based on prior support or Fibonacci retracement levels.
Risk-to-Reward
The setup has a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, with the stop-loss relatively close to the entry and a much larger distance to the target.
Market Context
The sharp drop in price following the trendline break signals strong bearish momentum. Ensure that this move aligns with higher timeframes and broader market sentiment for confirmation.
Key Considerations
Watch for any sudden buying pressure or market reversal signs that could invalidate the setup.
Volume analysis can provide additional confirmation for the strength of the trendline break and the retest rejection.
Stay disciplined with stop-loss placement to manage risk effectively.
Book profits with usual profit locking rule of 10% by moving SL to BE for safe ride
AUD/USD 4H - Bullish MSSHi all.. thanks all for the huge support following recently!
Here is my breakdown for AUD/USD from a 4H perspective..
Firstly the easy thing to notice is the 4H breakout from the Trend line. This large Bullish movement created a MSS. We then have had a very clean buying level left behind from that mitigation block before the breakout.
As you can notice the most recent supply zone is what kept the price down although we did see a lot of consolidation forming on that supply in my eyes telling me that structure level isnt going to hold another push.
The current price is at a very strong OTE zone which is another confluence to buy from. We also recently took out the most recent protected high so we very well could see a large movement from market open and if that is the case Id potentially be looking to buy straight into the next pullback.
For a strong buy setup, look for positions above the Monthly High Strong Time Frame.
Im targeting Buy side Imbalance giving us two clear targets.
Good luck to the traders that follow this setup.
EURUSD: Key Supports & Resistances For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important support & resistance levels/zones for EURUSD
for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
