EURUSD: FUTURE PIVOT POINTSTry to catch these pivot points
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Bullish AU200: Key Fundamentals & Probability StrategyThe AU200 (ASX 200) index is showing bullish potential due to several key fundamentals. Australia's economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with a strong labor market and low unemployment rate of 3.6% supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the country's resource-rich economy benefits from robust global commodity prices, particularly in key exports like iron ore and coal. The Reserve Bank of Australia's supportive monetary policy, despite recent tightening to combat inflation, further underpins the positive outlook for the AU200.
I'm incorporating probability top-down analysis into my trading strategy for the AU200 to make more informed decisions and improve my chances of success. By using probability tools on my charts, I can assess the probability of price movements reaching specific levels, helping me identify high-probability trade setups.
Now let's get into the top-down process:
12M:
2W:
4H:
What are your thoughts on the AU200? Share your ideas and insights below!
AUDJPY Short Setup: Leveraging Probabilities for Better TradesKey Fundamentals
China's Economic Slowdown: Australia relies heavily on trade with China. If China’s economy weakens, it can hurt Australia’s economy and the Australian Dollar.
Safe-Haven Demand: In uncertain times, investors often turn to safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen, which could lead to a drop in AUD/JPY.
Different Central Bank Policies: The Bank of Japan is keeping interest rates low, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may consider rate hikes. This difference can strengthen the Yen against the Australian Dollar.
Using Probabilities for Short Trades
By combining these fundamentals with a probability-based strategy, I aim to effectively trade AUD/JPY.
12M:
2W:
2H:
On this timeframe I can get positioned into shorts based on probabilities.
Leveraging Pivot Points for Intraday Trading StrategiesIntroduction to Pivot Points:
A pivot point serves as a pivotal indicator in technical analysis, aiding in discerning market trends across various time frames. Essentially, it's an average of the intraday high, low, and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Traders interpret trading above the pivot point as indicative of bullish sentiment and below as bearish.
Key Features:
Pivot points form the foundation of this indicator, from which support and resistance levels
are projected. These levels offer insights into potential price reversals or continuations. It's widely utilized in equities, commodities, and forex markets to identify trend shifts and
reversals.
Traders leverage pivot points to determine entry and exit levels, aiding in strategic decision-
making for intraday trades.
Formulas for Calculation:
The formulas for pivot points involve simple calculations based on the previous day's high, low, and close prices. These calculations yield pivotal support and resistance levels crucial for trade planning.
The Formulas for Pivot Points:
P= High+Low+Close / 3
R1=(P×2)−Low
R2=P+(High−Low)
S1=(P×2)−High
S2=P−(High−Low)
where:
P=Pivot point
R1=Resistance 1
R2=Resistance 2
S1=Support 1
S2=Support 2
Calculation Method:
Pivot points can be manually calculated using the prior day's data, which includes the high, low, and close prices. These levels are essential for traders, especially for intraday strategies.
High indicates the highest price from the prior trading day,
Low indicates the lowest price from the prior trading day, and
Close indicates the closing price from the prior trading day.
Interpreting Pivot Points:
Pivot points provide traders with static support and resistance levels throughout the trading
day. This enables traders to pre-plan their trades based on potential price movements.
Traders utilize pivot points in conjunction with other indicators to enhance their trading
strategies, aiming for more accurate predictions and better risk management.
Comparison with Fibonacci Retracements:
Pivot points and Fibonacci retracements share the common goal of identifying support and
resistance levels. However, pivot points rely on fixed numbers derived from the previous
day's prices, while Fibonacci retracements are based on percentage levels drawn between
significant price points.
Limitations and Considerations:
While pivot points offer valuable insights, they are not foolproof indicators and may not work
for all traders. It's crucial to integrate them within a comprehensive trading plan and
acknowledge their limitations.
Price movements may not always adhere strictly to pivot point levels, requiring traders to
exercise caution and employ additional analysis techniques.
Conclusion:
Pivot points remain a fundamental tool in the arsenal of intraday traders, aiding in trend identification and trade planning. By understanding their calculations, interpreting their implications, and integrating them with other indicators, traders can harness the power of pivot points to make informed trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This trading idea is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders are encouraged to conduct thorough research and exercise caution when implementing any trading strategies.
📈TON Breaks ATH: Eyes on $6-7 Target?🚀🔥🔍TON coin has recently shattered its all-time high (ATH) with a convincing candle on the weekly timeframe, marking a significant 32% move from the trigger candle. The uptrend appears to be continuing, with a potential next target range around $6-7 based on Fibonacci levels. If you bought at lower levels, it is advisable to hold for now.
✨Taking a glance at the annual pivot points, TON has reached the R2 level and seems to be consolidating. Observing the reaction at this level will be crucial in determining the next move. A break above R2 could indicate further upward momentum, while failure and a trigger candle might signal a potential sell-off.
📊The recent influx of volume into this coin over the past two weeks suggests strong interest from investors. If there's a reaction to the annual R2 level, monitoring the trendline drawn can provide insights. In case of a breakdown and confirmation candle, selling could be considered.
💥The RSI oscillator has entered overbought territory, signaling a potential sharp movement similar to the recent 30% surge. Fundamentally, TON is associated with the Telegram messaging platform. If you believe in the widespread adoption of this messenger, investing in its coin could be lucrative.
🛒Waiting for a pullback to the trendline with confirmation from a candle could be a viable strategy if you're still on the sidelines. Keep an eye on the market dynamics and react accordingly for potential profit opportunities.
🧠💼Just remember, jumping into trades too quickly before the main trigger can be risky. Always manage your money wisely and be aware of the risks involved.
BIST100 - Backtest the break out and continueBIST100 got a nice rally with the improved relations with US. There is a resistance for the short term at 8515 (Monthly second pivotal resistance level). RSI is also showing a bearish divergence. The index may want to test the previously broken channel. Then, with the election environment and the positive relations with US and NATO, we may see the continuation of the rally.
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Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
BTCUSD (H1) Buy again!
BINANCE:BTCUSD
BTCUSD (D) appears to have a pattern of narrowing the price range.
Currently, the pattern has been broken. So:
Buy current price at 43314.2
Stop loss at 41188.67
TSLA: The Most Important Chart Structures! (D & W charts).TSLA shares are up today, reacting above the 21 EMA seen on the daily chart, which, by the way, is still pointing upwards. What's more, it hasn't managed to lose support at $226, which we nailed in our last public study (the link to my previous TSLA analysis is below this post).
Given the technical evidence described above, TSLA maintains bullish sentiment in the medium term, as it has failed to trigger a bearish reversal structure by losing its key support levels. However, it has not yet broken through the previous top of $246.70 so that it could make a higher high again, resuming the pattern of higher highs/higher lows that makes up an uptrend.
As mentioned above, only if TSLA loses the $226 area would this trigger a bearish technical reversal pattern on the daily chart, as we would see it making a lower low after failing to break through the previous top of $246 - a classic bearish pivot point. For now, the situation seems to be under control. Now let's take a look at the weekly chart:
Here we see why it is so important for TSLA to maintain the bullish sentiment. TSLA’s price is still inside a Descending Channel, which could be part of a huge Bullish Flag pattern, but it must confirm an upwards breakout so it can turn the long-term sentiment bullish again.
TSLA is almost there and if it breaks this channel, it could easily look for the next resistance around $300 again. So far, there is no apparent bearish reaction suggesting a top or a correction to the support line of this channel – in fact, TSLA is finally above the 21 ema on the weekly chart again.
I’ll keep you posted on this, so remember to follow me and support this idea, if you liked it!
Best regards,
Nathan.
EURCHF We may short in next week!Currently there are more buyers in the market regarding our observations.
An alternative setup is ready here for us!
Bearish divergence for EUR/JPYEURONEXT:EUR / $JPY has started the year at the yearly pivot point. After 9 months, it is flying around the second yearly resistance. The price has started to stall at the monthly resistance point and RSI shows bearish divergence. If we break this resistance, I don't expect the price to break the second yearly pivotal point.
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Two potential points for a long entryWith the FUD and SEC manipulation, BINANCE:BTCUSD price dropped heavily and didn't join the technology rally. Though that might be a sign for bitcoin is becoming a risk-off asset. With a correction in the stock markets we can see a move towards 35k.
There are two good spots for long entry if the price drops further. First stop is the trendline which is coinciding with weekly second support around 24.1k. The price may further go down as a fake breakout toward 23.6k area. This area has also high volume support from previous breakout. Let's see when this FUD ends and our mighty bitcoin shows some strength.
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Tipping pont for NVDA, What's in the Cards?Next level down for NASDAQ:NVDA is at around $334.05, which would be back to the Pivot and yet another pivotal moment, where if there are not enough buyers it could be bed time for the AI narrative for now. Full disclosure I am already short NVDA stock and looking to exit near the pivot.
Check out the Equity Channel Podcast for more information on trading and investing.
EUR/SGD Take Profit at 1.452Closed Trade at Price Level 1.452. Wait for another pullback to the Pivot Point + Trend Line in an uptrend.
Mid Week Analysis on the EUR/USDIn this video, I go over the mid week technical analysis on the EUR/USD and what I see potentially unfolding on both the Bullish and Bearish side.
We have FOMC next week and plenty of economic data being released for the remainder of this week.
USDJPY COT-STUDY Q1-23: BEARISH CONTINUATION?Monetary Policy:
- BOJ is making a significant change
- Longterm YieldCurveControl target of 0,25% is relaxed to 0.50%
- Higher targets are to be considered
- This would mean more YEN-strength
- FED still hiking rates, but expected target-rate for 2023 is moderate: 4,75% - 5.00%
COT:
- Institutions started distributing USD-Longs since Q3-22
- Insititutions started distributing JPY-Shorts since Q4-22
- Both moves reinforce eachother in pushing down USDJPY
- Distribution-phase seems to continue in Q1-23
Seasonality:
- JAN is generally weak for USDJPY, so in line with expectations
- FEB & MAR are not weak for USDJPY (but Monetary Policy & COT outweigh Seasonality)
Pivot Points:
- Q4 was (fast) run from Quarterly R1 to Quarterly S1
- Looks like mid-DEC was start of frontrun Q1-23
- Projected Quarterly Pivot for Q1-23 was sold end DEC-22
- Quarterly Pivot predicts Quarterly S2 with QS1 as (conservative) first target = 125
NZDJPY Entry Price 85.298 Target Price 86.267NZDJPY retraced to the pivot point level. After the pin bar formed, entered a long position.
Pivot Point Levels For XRPUSD (September 8th, 2022)Watch Pivot Point Levels For A Possible Entry. Specifically, watch for a rejection candlestick at pivot point.
