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AAPL: About to shift the trend! (D & H chartts)Daily Chart (Left) Head and Shoulders (H&S) Pattern: A potential Head and Shoulders pattern is forming on the daily chart, with a neckline around the $221.33 level. If this pattern completes and the price breaks below the neckline, it could indicate a bearish reversal, signaling further downside. Pivot Point: The pivot point at $228.66 is acting as a near-term resistance level. A break above this level could invalidate the H&S pattern, leading to a continuation of the uptrend. 21-Day EMA: The stock is hovering around the 21-day EMA, suggesting indecision in the market. Staying above this EMA could be positive for bulls, increasing the chances of an upwards breakout of the pivot point. Hourly Chart (Right) Cup and Handle Pattern: The hourly chart shows a potential Cup and Handle formation, with resistance at the $228.66 level. A breakout above this resistance could lead to a bullish continuation. EMA Support: The 21-hour EMA has provided dynamic support, keeping the price within the handle formation. Holding this EMA and breaking the resistance could complete the Cup and Handle pattern, signaling further upside in the short term. Trading Implications: AAPL is at a crucial juncture. A break above $228.66 would favor a bullish outlook, while a break below the $221.33 neckline would indicate a bearish reversal. For now, we should watch these key levels closely for potential setups. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
NVDA: The Next Inflection Point! (D&W charts)Since our last study on NVDA, the price has successfully held above its critical support points, and we now see a good recovery. The “Above the Stomach” pattern that we identified last month has been triggered, and NVDA is now looking for its next resistance levels. The link to our previous analysis is below this post, as usual. Daily Chart (Left): Higher Highs and Higher Lows: The price is forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is a classic bullish trend pattern. This suggests strong upward momentum, with buyers stepping in at each retracement. Resistance Level at $131.26: The next key resistance level is $131.26. This price point coincides with a previous peak and also aligns with a broader resistance zone observed on both timeframes (D and W charts). If the bullish momentum continues, the price could retest $131.26, and even if it materializes a pullback to the 21-day EMA wouldn't ruin the bullish sentiment. Weekly Chart (Right): Above the Stomach Pattern: The weekly chart shows a recent bullish reversal pattern known as "Above the Stomach." This pattern, which we deascribed in our previous analysis, suggests a potential shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. Pivot Point at $131.26: The $131.26 area has been highlighted as a pivot point on the weekly timeframe, representing a key decision zone. A successful breakout and close above this level would likely trigger a more significant rally. Ascending Channel: NVDA is trading within an ascending channel, maintaining its bullish trajectory. The lower boundary of the channel has acted as reliable support, suggesting that the long-term trend remains intact as long as the channel is respected. Conclusion: NVDA is showing strong bullish signs, supported by the formation of higher highs and lows on the daily chart and the validation of a bullish reversal pattern on the weekly chart. The main level to watch is $131.26, as a breakout above this point could accelerate the rally. For those seeking a longer-term perspective, maintaining the trend within the ascending channel is crucial. If $131.26 is broken, the next potential target could be the ATH.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
BITCOIN: This May Be Your Last Chance Before Exploding to UpsideBitcoin can go up to 65k to complete the wedge, but every uptrend has to be corrected, that's the nature of the market . if wedge broken i expect the price can falling to 61K ! And we have to wait for failure so that the wedge is not broken, as if there is no wedge! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Short
by CobraVanguard
2
New Features For Dynamic Pivot Levels - Percentage indicatorIn our latest update, we’ve packed in some exciting new features and enhancements that will elevate your analysis experience to the next level: Exciting New Features: We’ve added additional Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), allowing you to track five different EMAs tailored to your needs. But that’s not all – we’ve introduced smiley indicators that give you instant feedback on whether the price is above or below the moving average. Now you can analyze with a clean, clutter-free chart! Fibonacci Level Enhancements: We’ve upgraded the logic behind Fibonacci levels to give you more accurate insights. The improved Fibonacci calculations provide a clearer, more precise visual representation, helping you make better-informed decisions. A Sleek, Streamlined User Interface: We know how important it is to work with a smart, efficient tool, so we’ve revamped the user interface! Settings are now neatly organized into categories, allowing you to quickly and easily customize everything you need. This makes your workflow smoother and faster. This update doesn’t just bring new capabilities – it makes the tool more accessible and user-friendly than ever. It’s your key to staying focused on precision analysis, without the distractions!
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by The_Real_Hippopotamus
Navigating September 2024: British Pound Trading ForecastAs we approach the close of Q3 2024, key pivot levels on the Camarilla indicator suggest pivotal moments ahead for the British Pound. The currency's performance at these levels could dictate the trading strategy for the upcoming period. Camarilla Insights and Strategic Levels: The British Pound reached a significant juncture at the $1.3220 level, identified as the R5 resistance and a prime profit-taking zone during Q1 2024. This level is now expected to serve as a focal point for institutional traders' actions, oscillating between profit-taking distributions and potential accumulations for new long positions. September 2024 Trading Strategy: Anticipated Long Positions: Observations suggest a potential buildup of long positions at the S3 level of September 2024, which also aligns with August 2024's R3 and Q3's R4. This setup indicates that if the price approaches this level, it could trigger buying activities. However, establishing long positions would be prudent only upon confirmation that the S3 level holds firmly. Should the price fail to sustain this level, a cautious approach would be to wait for it to reach the lower S4 level before considering any long trade entries. Short Trading Opportunities: Conversely, if the price escalates to the R3 level, corresponding to the R5 profit-taking level of Q3 2024, it may suggest that the market is entering a distribution phase. In this scenario, traders might look for opportunities to initiate short positions, targeting subsequent support levels at S3 or S4 depending on the price movement’s momentum. Long-Term Outlook and Price Targets: The pattern of higher lows since September 2022 primes the GBP for a potentially bullish trajectory. A break above the previous highs of July 2023 at $1.3150 could set the stage for an aggressive bullish run, aiming for a resistance target at $1.3650. Conclusion: The current positioning and historical pivot levels provide a complex but navigable trading landscape for the British Pound as we move into the latter part of 2024. Traders should closely monitor these critical levels for indications of market sentiment shifts, ensuring strategies are aligned with the prevailing market phase, whether accumulation or distribution. Stay tuned for updates as these pivotal moments unfold, offering opportunities for astute traders to capitalize on the inherent volatility of currency markets.
CME_MINI:M6B1!Long
by msrozba
Advances Camarilla Concepts (2)Advanced Camarilla Concepts: Mastering Two-Period Relationships In the sophisticated realm of Camarilla pivot trading, understanding two-period relationships is crucial for discerning the market's directional bias and anticipating movements in upcoming sessions. This analytical approach focuses on the third layer (S3 and R3) of the Camarilla pivots, similar to Pivot Width Analysis, but delves deeper into nuanced market signals across seven distinct types of relationships. Exploring the Seven Two-Period Relationships Higher Value (Bullish Signal): This occurs when the current period’s S3 is above the previous period’s R3, suggesting a robust bullish outlook. This scenario is a strong buy signal on pullbacks to the current period's S3. Key to this analysis is: Acceptance: Price opens above S3 and pulls back to it, affirming bullish continuation. Rejection: Price opens below S3, turning it into resistance, with potential declines anticipated. Lower Value (Bearish Signal): Defined by the current period's R3 being below the previous period's S3, indicating bearish conditions. This setup suggests selling on rallies to R3. Observations include: Acceptance: Price opens below R3 and ascends to it, confirming the bearish trend. Rejection: Price opens above R3, using it as support, which may signal rising prices. Overlapping Higher Value: A modestly bullish sign indicating a possible slowdown in the uptrend, suggesting that the market might enter a distribution phase leading to range-bound conditions. Both acceptance and rejection criteria apply, similar to the 'Higher Value' scenario. Overlapping Lower Value: A slightly bearish signal hinting at a weakening downtrend, potentially leading to accumulation and subsequent range-bound activity. Like its bullish counterpart, acceptance and rejection are key to understanding this signal. Unchanged Value: Represents neutrality, where the current period's S3 and R3 align exactly with the previous period's levels. Markets may be in a phase of accumulation or distribution, and traders should watch for breakout signals closely. Outside Value: Another neutral indicator where the current period’s S3 and R3 completely encompass the previous period’s levels, suggesting a quiet, range-bound market environment. Inside Value: Indicates that a breakout is imminent, as the current period’s S3 and R3 are entirely contained within the previous period’s levels. This scenario offers opportunities for low-risk and high-reward trades. Strategic Implications and Trading Strategy Utilizing these two-period Camarilla relationships equips traders with a refined lens for market analysis, enabling them to tailor their strategies to the evolving market context. Whether it's leveraging bullish signals for robust buying opportunities or identifying bearish setups for timely exits, understanding these nuanced relationships enhances strategic execution. By integrating these advanced Camarilla concepts into your trading toolbox, you can significantly enhance your ability to navigate through volatile markets with precision and confidence. Stay tuned for further insights as we continue to explore the depths of Camarilla pivot trading and its application in real-world scenarios. This exploration not only broadens your understanding but also sharpens your trading skills in anticipating and reacting to market dynamics.
CBOT:ZNZ2024Education
by msrozba
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 27/08/2024🔔 Nifty Update for Today: 📊 Expected Flat Opening: Opening Range: Between 25000 and 25050 📈 Potential Upside Movement: Upside Target: 200+ points from 25050 Nifty is expected to open flat within the 25000 to 25050 range. If the index starts trading above 25050 after the opening, a strong upside rally of 200+ points could be possible in today’s session. 📉 Downside Risk: Major Downside: Only expected if the index falls below 25000
NSE:NIFTY
by TradZoo
Mastering Market Dynamics with Camarilla Pivot PointsIntroduction to Camarilla Pivot Points: A Game-Changing Indicator Camarilla Pivot Points stand out as one of the most effective leading indicators in the realm of technical analysis. Franklin O. Ochoa's "Secrets of a Pivot Boss" offers a profound exploration of this method, widely used for identifying pivotal support and resistance levels in the financial markets. The book is acclaimed for its clear exposition of complex concepts and actionable strategies that cater to both novice and experienced traders, aiming to refine their market strategies across various conditions. Deep Dive into Camarilla Pivot Points Ochoa positions Camarilla Pivot Points as indispensable tools for intraday trading, delineating crucial levels that include S3, S4, R3, R4, and the extended targets of S5 and R5. These points are not merely theoretical constructs but are practical tools for navigating the ebb and flow of market dynamics. Support Levels (S3, S4): These levels are crucial when prices are falling, suggesting potential zones for buying. A rebound from S4, especially, is highlighted as a prime entry point, suggesting a robust setup with tightly managed risk controls. Resistance Levels (R3, R4): At these junctures, R3 serves as a preliminary profit target for rising positions, while a breach of R4 could indicate potential for further bullish momentum, making it an ideal spot for breakout strategies. Extended Levels (S5 and R5): Serving as further profit targets, these levels are significant during periods of extraordinary volatility, indicating strong market movements and potential zones for capturing gains before probable market retractions. Strategic Implementation and Challenges The integration of Camarilla Pivot Points with other market indicators and contextual analysis is emphasized to enhance the validity of trading signals. This holistic approach ensures that traders are not solely reliant on one method but are equipped to make informed decisions based on a comprehensive market view. However, the practical application of these strategies, as vividly recounted from personal experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, reveals challenges. Despite meticulous adherence to Ochoa's outlined strategies, the expected outcomes were not always realized, with an 80% incidence of being stopped out of trades. This discrepancy highlights a crucial aspect of trading: the unpredictable nature of markets and the necessity for continuous adaptation and learning. Conclusion: Looking Forward The journey with Camarilla Pivot Points underscores a critical lesson in trading: the importance of flexibility and ongoing education in strategy application. As we prepare to delve deeper into what might have been missing in the initial application and how to adjust strategies accordingly, traders are reminded of the impermanence of market conditions and the need for perpetual skill enhancement. Stay tuned for the next installment, where we explore these adaptations and continue our journey towards mastering the art of trading with Camarilla pivot points.
NYMEX:NGV2024Education
by msrozba
MAGIC DUOS NEWS Aug 23, 2024 1D CHART UpdateRECOMMENDATIONS For Very Very Low Capital Investors SHIBUSDT Crypto / Now at 0.00001521 Go LONG! Price crossed SMA 20, NV is positive showing 3.317T and Privot HL continue going up in GREEN. Close position once Privot HL turn RED. SH Proshares Short S&P500 / Now at 11.15 Go LONG once Privot HL turn GREEN. If that happens DJI and SPY will go in the opposite direction. Yes, DOWN. Remember, all these metrics came from 1D Charting. FOLLOW THEM UP TWO TIMES DAILY, AT 10AM & 10PM EST Your COINS will be appreciated!!!
Long
by SolutionsforallNet
TRENDSTAR INDICATOR (Best on 5Min chart)Hi Everyone! I have created a new TradingView indicator for DAY TRADERS! The most important indication of trend in day trading is price action, all other indicators are lagging indicators! (BHAAV BHAGWAN CHE) However, price action and candlestick patterns can become misleading if seen on a blank chart. A day trader needs to identify levels where price action actually matters! INTRODUCING TRENDSTAR INDICATOR - A powerful tool for day traders to enhance their trading strategies and make more informed decisions at the right time during the day: - Works on Index and Large Caps. (only NSE) - Auto plots key levels daily at open. - Refined Buy/Sell signals. - The ZONE is used to identify trend and plots dynamic S/R area. (When the zone is blue - trend is bullish and bearish when its orange) ZONE can also act as a S/R area and can be used for short term (1-2 days) trades. - Works best in 5M time frame for that spot on DAY TRADE everyone is looking for BUT you have to be patient for the levels to be breached. - 1M/3M scalping works as well. - Can set alerts for breach of any of the levels. UNDERSTANDING THE LEVELS: Blue dotted line - Pivot for the day Green line - S/R level on the higher side (breakout can trigger fresh buys) Red line - S/R level on the lower side (breakdown can trigger fresh shorts) Purple line - the joker level of the day (on certain days it acts as an iron clad S/R level) Black dotted lines - Extreme S/R zones for the day. I am currently sharing this indicator on invite-only basis. DM me on twitter @techtrademusic for access. Best wishes, FIVSTA.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by djsahiljoshi
WKHS will it rally 50% or fall below its ATL WKHS has been sideways or down since the bullrun in late February. Another EV small cap is nearing bankruptcy unless it finds a suitor ( FSR trying to attract Nissan) WKHS has a niche with its delivery trucks ( like for Amazon Prime and USPS). Is the concept to production hangups and slow downs going to cause its demise? Trader confidence is lacking or are traders simply waiting for the best possible price? Price is now about to match the all-imte lows of mid February. Will there be support or will it fall.? Dould WKHS dead cat bounce to rise to recent high pivots? This may be interesting and potentially profitable.
NASDAQ:WKHS
by AwesomeAvani
AMD: Daily and Weekly Chart Analysis.Daily Chart: Support Levels and Fibonacci Retracement The daily chart of AMD highlights key support levels and Fibonacci retracement zones. The price recently bounced from a double support level at 153.49, which is both a gap support and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend. This level's resilience suggests a strong buy zone. The 21-day EMA at 161.47 is acting as a dynamic resistance. If it closes above this level could push the price towards the next resistance at 174.55. The support at 153.49 remains crucial, as a break below this could signal further downside towards 148.00 and 142.00. Weekly Chart: Ascending Trend Line and Pivot Point The weekly chart shows AMD trading above a long-term ascending trend line, indicating a sustained bullish trend. The 21-week EMA at 162.06 provides additional support, and it is very close to the 21 EMA on the daily chart, reinforcing the important of a breakout of this key point. The price has a pivot point of 174.55. Holding above the trend line suggests bullish momentum, with the potential for the price to retest the resistance at 174.55. A break above this level could target the next resistance at 187.00, while a failure to hold above the trend line might lead to a pullback towards the 150.00 level. Conclusion: Key Levels to Watch for Bullish Continuation On the daily chart, the double support at 153.49 is critical. The weekly chart's ascending trend line and pivot point at 174.55 will guide the broader trend. Maintaining support above the key levels on both charts will be essential for a continued bullish outlook. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:AMD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
Next Week's IWM, 21 Day Pivot Standard Deviation RangeLooks like the medium term bias is to the downside for small caps, as we see the weekly pivot (red solid line) fall below the monthly pivot (dark solid line) with AMEX:IWM closing below both. Both deviation boxes represent two standard deviations above and below the a moving monthly pivot. We may see demand in the lower deviation range if we fall to start off the week. A rally to start of the week will likely be met with resistance from our pivot points and a fresh downward move from the 21 day moving average. Investors that want to take advantage of this medium term bias could short volatility in the short term (June/July) for IWM using AMEX:TZA but bet bigger on long volatility in the longer term (September/January2025). Take any short term gains to the upside and hold onto your short thesis heading into the second half of the year, into 2025.
AMEX:IWMShort
by D1Finance
RBLX Deeply Undervalued LONGRBLX on the 4H chart is presently at the low extreme in its trading range over the past six months with the VWAP bands and volume profile overleaid. Pivot highes in the winter were in the 46-47 range while the 2023 pivot low was 25. RBLX is a kid's favorite and compets well with the other competing gaming setup. At present price touched 26.75 on 4X relative volume ( selling). This is an obvious bottom. I will puck up a long trade here targeting the VWAP and POC lines at the range of 37.50 to 39.50 and so seeking a profitable trade of 20- 25% overall in two pieces at the respective levels. Call options will be entertained if there is sufficient volume to support ease of liquidity.
NYSE:RBLXLong
by AwesomeAvani
Trade Entry and Management Techniques Using Swing High PivotsIn today's video idea, we will delve into a comprehensive strategy for trade entry and management, centered around utilizing swing high pivots as crucial reference points. We will also explore the effective integration of technical tools such as Outer Bands, ribbons, and Target View Trades (TV-Trades) to enhance precision in trading decisions. By the end of this tutorial, you will gain valuable insights into determining trade viability and optimizing trade execution. Understanding Swing High Pivots: Swing high pivots serve as pivotal landmarks in market analysis, offering valuable insights into potential trade setups. When identifying swing high pivots, focus on significant price peaks that indicate potential trend reversals or continuation points. These points will serve as key references for evaluating trade opportunities and managing risk effectively. Trade Entry Strategies: Utilizing swing high pivots as reference points, assess the market conditions to determine the viability of trade entry. Look for confluence with other technical indicators such as Outer Bands and ribbons to validate trade setups. Prioritize trades that align with the prevailing market trend and exhibit strong momentum, increasing the probability of success. Managing Trades: Once you enter a trade, it is essential to implement effective management techniques to optimize profitability and mitigate risks. Continuously monitor price action relative to swing high pivots and technical indicators to gauge trade performance. Implement trailing stop-loss orders to protect profits and minimize potential losses as the trade progresses. Integration of Technical Tools: Explore the functionalities of technical tools such as Outer Bands, ribbons, and Target View Trades (TV-Trades) to refine trade entry and exit points further. Outer Bands provide larger trend information, aiding in direction, trade confirmation and risk management. Ribbons offer visual cues for trend direction and momentum, enhancing trade precision. Target View Trades (TV-Trades) provide a systematic approach to identify optimal entry and exit points, facilitating disciplined trading execution. Conclusion: Mastering trade entry and management techniques is essential for navigating the dynamic landscape of financial markets successfully. By incorporating swing high pivots and leveraging technical tools effectively, traders can make informed decisions, capitalize on lucrative opportunities, and achieve consistent profitability in their trading endeavors. Continuously refine your skills through practice and experimentation, adapting to evolving market conditions for sustained success.
CME_MINI:NQM2024Education
by CFRN
3
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple Indicators (Update 3)An update from the last summary: Stating the obvious but the recurring pattern did not play out. This was a painful past couple of days but some realizations that I will walk through here for anyone who may be on a similar journey or realizations. “Buy high and sell low” or “buy support and sell resistance” are simple words to speak, to walk through in back testing, but, in the heat of the moment with live data and markets unfolding in ways you weren’t expecting make these phrases an near impossible accomplishment. As for the chart setup, I’ve with the following for the Renko WTI/CL chart: 25 tick block size and a 15-minute timeframe (more on this later) DEMA at 12 and 20 MA at 20 with a 9 period (or block in case of Renko) WMA Stoch of 5,3,3 and 25,3,3 DMI of 5,5 Bull Bear Power at 25 (this is new and seems to provide good insights) Wednesday and Thursday had me watching the Renko charts waiting for an opportunity to go short (remember, my trading style is to buy either Calls or Puts as near to the money as possible and at least 3 to 4 months out). From the patterns I saw on the Renko, I firmly believed that the market was ready to sell off and I wanted to be in. As an aside, I cap my losses at 10% of the price I pay for the option. In my losses this week, I realized that my strategies for every period of time that I’ve tried to trade had basically been a breakout trader. It wasn’t that I made a definitive statement of “Hey, my methodology is that of a breakout trader” but more like “Hey, I need to see confirmation of the price movement before I enter”. The problem is that the confirmation I was looking for was well after price had started moving and, as I looked at it, it was what could be classified as a breakout. And it was in my 3rd loss for the week, that I realized what I was doing wasn’t working. Sure, I could find points in time where it would have seemed to work but not this week. As closed out my 3rd loss, I read back through some items I had highlighted in the “Pivot Boss” book referenced earlier and in it found the pages were I had marked up the callout that you have to buy at support and sell into resistance if your going to succeed. It seem intuitive but in reality, it goes completely against my nature while trying to find an entry point with live data flying by. By now, if you’ve read this far, you may have picked out some items that resonate with you or you may be finding this as a serious source of entertainment :D For the discussion that continues, you’ll need to reference the previous article I wrote to see the specific charts before the price action on Thursday. The following link will give you view of how price played out. The red rectangle outline on the chart is where I was looking for price to repeat a similar pattern noted in the related article. How simple (and unrealistic) could this be. What played out was a price movement that I didn’t know how to handle and took me some time to figure out where to get in. As price continued to go up, I realized this was where I would usually just try to get in and then, I would get in at a intra-day high, have price pull back and 10-20% of my option value hit and I’d be out just to watch the market reverse. So, on this day, I resolved myself not to make a trade unless I could figure out this “buy support and sell resistance” thing. In my resolve, I agreed to some points: I will only buy at support and will sell into resistance: (the hardest concept known to man, not in understanding but execution) The key must be in the Camarilla Pivots so use them and the system that is outlined in the book. Or, as close as you can with how you want to trade. Renko chart setting will stay at 25 ticks for a block size and 15 minutes for a timeframe. What does this mean for Renko in TV? It means that price of a 25 tick increment must be held for 15 minutes before the block is committed or printed. Because volume profile and camarilla pivots are not a natural fit on the Renko charts, I’ll create a candle chart side-by-side to the Renko chart and then place all of these indicators on it. Additionally, all of the mark-ups I do for projecting the volume area on the chart and the opening range will be done on the candle chart The Renko chart will continue to have the indicators I track on it but they will be for confirmation and helping to form an opinion of the market and nothing to do with entry or exit. Remember, I want to buy support and sell resistance and not breakouts. I wanted to have multiple periods of levels on my candle chart so I included 3 sets of camarilla, a daily, weekly, and monthly set of levels. The next big decision I had to make was the timeframe for the candle chart itself. After much experimentation and debate with myself, I landed with the following: Start with an hourly chart. The first general notion of entry and if at support or resistance will come from the hourly chart. I will continue with my volume area and opening range markup but it will be for a weekly timeframe. Meaning that the volume profile indicator is set to weekly and I use the first 5 hours of the week to set the opening range. From these markups I’ll create an opinion of the coming week and a trading plan based on what I see. Then, I’ll let price movement between the camarilla pivots prove out my opinion or lead me to adjust it. Once I find a potential trigger, I will switch the 1hr candle chart to a 5 minute candle chart and look for candle setups to trigger the actual trade. What do I use for triggers and how to I decide where to look? The following chart is a bit of an eye chart but you get the idea. With the 3 camarilla pivots plus a year pivot, you can see the various levels. While it may seem like a confused mess, there is some method to the madness. The Camarilla pivots in TV allow you to color code the levels plus set the size or pixel width of the lines of the levels. For all periods, I set the pivot to black, R1/S1 and R2/S2 to purple and then based on the book’s recommendation, R3/S4 to red, R4/S3 to green, and R5/S5 to blue. For the daily, week, monthly, and yearly pivots, I set their pixel width to 1px, 2px, 3px, and 4px respectively. This is how I get a visual clue on what timeframe price is approaching (by the width) and the type of triggers or market behavior I should be looking for based on the color. I will use the weekly, monthly, and hourly pivots to look for price levels of support or resistance. It will be at these levels that I’ll look for price action to provide insight as to what the market wants to do with the level (there is a good discussion in the “Pivot Boss” book on identifying candle patterns that distills a lot of complexities of endless chapters of concepts into a few simple ones in one chapter). Once I see some type of candle pattern on the 1 hour chart that could indicate a trigger to enter, I change it to a 5 minute chart to find a pattern in the price movement of the next candle to make the entry. In theory, this should provide me with an entry at support; don’t wait for a confirmation via a breakout. So, why mess with the Renko charts then? Fair enough of a question; I believe that the Renko chart setup will filter noise out of the view and provide a cleaner view of support and resistance lines due to the nature of its makeup. If you follow along with any of this in your own charts, you will begin to see that the pivots begin to form identifiable lines of support and resistance in the Renko chart. And, back to the point that the Renko setup I have with the specific indicators and their settings seem to provide a good path toward confirmation of trends and positions. Another key issue I was struggling with was how to correlate the Renko chart with the candle chart. This is where I came up with the 5-minute chart which, after thinking about it, I realized that the 5-minute chart would reconcile nicely with the 15-minute Renko chart. If you look at how Renko charts are printed, they will print on the time frame that you set so, if a brick prints, it should do so on a :15-minute boundary. And, the 5-minute candle will correlate to it. The next chart shows the Renko with the 1hr candle side-by-side with the same rectangle. The rectangle on the 1hr is a reasonable estimate but squarely in the middle is an interesting candle formation that happens to be near the daily S5 and the weekly R1. I looked at this for awhile in real-time and thought, how do you really decide to make this trade? It seems like price has moved further from the trigger before you have the nerve to pull the trigger on the trade. Plus, if you look at the DEMA on the Renko at this time, it’s still set bearish with 20 above the 12 and the -DI was still swapped above the +DI. All things I’ve used in the past and now causing paralysis in pulling the trigger in a “buy at support” trade. The next is the same chart setup but I’ve switched to the 5 minute view and have adjusted the red rectangle in the candle chart a little. The candle chart shows the boundary of the lowest red brick, the one red brick to the left and the two green bricks to the right. In this price action, candle on the one hour chart (engulfing is corroborated by the extended wick of the green brick that is the first reversed color in the down move. However, with the DEMA swapped bearish, what would lead you to look to buy on this. There are valid cases where price continues down from the one green brick. This is where the importance of the camarilla pivots along with the 5 minute chart come in. With the engulfing candle on the 1-hour chart and the green brick on the Renko, what I should have done is use the 5-minute chart with the various pivots to find support and candle patterns to enter the market long. This would have been fulfilling the mantra of “Buy Support; Sell Resistance”. The following chart zooms in to both the Renko and the 5-minute candle in hopes to show details of how to get from potential triggers to confirmations and physical entries with tighter reins on the stops to guard more on the ‘Hope this will work’ strategy. By using the 15-minute Renko and the 5-minute chart, I can now see exactly what’s going on in the Renko bricks to get a better feel of what the market is doing. The blue double arrow on the Renko correlates with the 5-minute candle. With the first green brick being a trigger, then the key is to look at what is going on once that brick prints to see how price behaves around the Camarilla pivots. The green dashed line is the time that the first green brick printed (committed, good to go). So, what is important is to now watch the price to find a setup to enter. Or we see the market push through the support of the camarilla pivots that are in close proximity and begin the search for an entry short. The chart below is zoomed in even more on the candle chart with the daily Camarilla S4 which, from a daily context, is the last level of support before more sellers hop in and drive price lower. I’ve outlined this pivot in a green rectangle and here you can see price action and find some interesting setups. I’ve put some black arrows at some of the more interesting candles and those which are probably some type of reversal patters of 2 or 3 in nature. I’ll end this here but have more in my notes that I’ll include in a future update.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple Indicators (update 1)This will serve as an update to the previous discussion specifically to some of the chart settings and the approach. Going into the open on 25-March-2024, I was looking for price to move lower to test the monthly and yearly Camarilla R3. My reasoning was that neither seemed to have been tested yet and that these two together would provide a good level for support. My long term view on crude oil is bullish and I believed this type of action would provide a good entry point. However, this plan did not come through so I stood aside to let the market playout to determine another entry strategy. While watching the market in the charts I had published earlier, I decided to make some adjustments to see if I would have detected the market’s plan sooner providing an entry point. The following are the changes that I’ve made: Changed the timeframe of the Renko chart from 15 minutes to 1 minute. Without paying for a higher subscription in TV, 1 minute is as low of a timeframe as you can go with Renko. This alone changed the dynamics of the chart with a different view on the DMI and Stoch. Changed the slower Stoch from 25,3,3 to 50,3,3 (which is a setting I’ve experimented with in the past. The DMI remained the same as did the levels of importance for the ADX of 35 and 20. Added the BPP (Bull Bear Power) indicator and set it to an interval of 50. I’ve not used this indicator before but was experimenting with some items yesterday and found this. I set the line to a step line and you can see the results here. Added a 2-hour candle chart next to the Renko and will use it in conjunction with the Renko chart to make entry/exit decisions. Removed the manual Linear Regression from the Renko chart and have added them to the 2hr chart. This is a more natural fit and have maintained the default settings. I have added two LR indicators with one at 1 STD and one at 2 STD. Removed the manual drawings of the Camarilla pivots and have added them as indicators to the 2hr chart. Removed the volume profile from the Renko chart and have added it to the 2hr chart with a week timeframe. All markup for volume area, opening range, etc. will be put on the 2hr chart and will be for a weekly view. The Renko chart will remain to work for timings of entry and exits. Considering the 1-minute chart, you can see that there was a buy signal across several of the setups. As noted earlier, the consolidation on the 1 minute/25 tick Renko chart provided a signal that a breakout was coming. The slower Stoch set to 50,3,3 provided some insight into the direction with the break of the %k up over the %d and lastly, the new BBP gave an indication that the down move was a correction and that higher prices could be coming. A long wick and breakout of consolidation would have been a trigger to enter a trade of buying a Call option (see green arrow on Renko). Looking at the 2hr candle chart with the 2 linear regressions (1 and 2 STD respectively), then you can see where the support was formed then then where resistance was hit. The monthly and the weekly R4 provided resistance and now support is at the median of the current LR. Because the break of the weekly R3 was with a force with no test, my plan now is to find an entry long (an August Call) along this line which is also the same proximity of the weekly Pivot and the top of the week’s opening range (where the opening range for the week is defined as the first 5 2hr candles of the week. With a red brick in place on the 1 minute/25 tick chart, a green brick now would be a buying opportunity. I’ve added a consolidation channel across levels of what could be support for any pullback and could see another 25-tick brick in place before the green brick to the upside.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple IndicatorsThis study will walk through several concepts in analyzing crude oil. The primary chart type will be a Renko chart with the block size (ticks) set to 25 (0.25 in TV) and with a timeframe set to 15 minutes. The significance of timeframe is that in TV, it will take this amount of time for the price to maintain a full block change (25 cents) in order for it to be ‘printed’. In times of high volatility, a 15-minute window can allow for more than one block to print at the same time. While this may be a disadvantage in trading CL futures either day or swing trading, it helps filter out noise in the type of trading I do. The basic strategy I’m wanting to establish using this setup is the buying of options, either puts or calls, that are as near to the market as possible and to limit risk to a % of the value of the purchase price of the option. So, for example, if I pay $2,500.00 USD for a CLQ24 85 Call, I will limit my loss to 10% of that price should the market go against what I had expected. The chart setups and scenarios in this study will be based on Renko charts along with various indicators that will be discussed (for the most part individually). A view of 2024 based on the Renko setup. I will start with this basic view that has the Renko chart configured as outlined above with two linear regression drawings manually drawn on it. There is an indicator for LR which will follow each block change and change accordingly based on the lookback configuration. With the drawing tool, you can start and end the LR based on your strategy. In mine, I want to base the LR on price from a major low to a major high and then adjust based on if a new high or low is obtained. In this chart, I picked the low as that of late December (the first long black arrow). As an exercise, you can hit the new highs from this point to see how the LR adjusted and how future price flowed within it. There are two LR drawings on this chart; one with an upper and lower deviation set to 2/-2 and the second with a upper and lower deviation set to 1/-1 (these are the ones with dots for a boundary). In this specific chart, I’ve started with the latest high to be that on 01-March and with the LRs both extended to the right, you can see the price movement against these LR into the future. As price broke through the top of the LR recently, a new high was put in on 24-March and the adjustment of the LR will be shown next. With this new high confirmed, the LRs are both move to end at this high while keeping the original starting point the same. In this view, price pulled back to the top of the LR 1std and close here. With the LR extended, you can see where the mean is and a potential price target if just considering the LR itself. An expanded view of above: Next, I’ll introduce the DEMA and simple MA on the chart. There are two DEMAs added to the chart with one set to a period of 12 and one set to a period of 20. The significance of the two is that when the 12 (black on this chart) is above the 20 (red on this chart), then the trend is bullish and when the opposite, the trend is bearish. I use these two more for confirmation than for timing. If you study these, you’ll see that they lag for the most part but there are key times that they will provide insight to the direction of a market during times of consolidation. The next two indicators that I’ll introduce are the Stochastic and Directional Movement Index (DMI with the ADX). The experience of using these indicators on a Renko chart is like that on a candle chart except that the period is not for time but the number of bars that have been printed or committed. There are two Stochs used (5,3,3 and 25,3,3). The intent of the 5,3,3 is to provide a fast-moving change in momentum while the 25,3,3 is designed to provide insight to the momentum of the longer trend. Insight as to timing the entry and exit of trades may be possible with an in-depth understanding of the crossover of the 25,3,3 between the %k and the %d. The DMI can be used like it is against a candle chart but with settings at 5,5. This provides a faster moving indicator and, with some study, can determine the importance of the interactions between the 3 lines. There is one key aspect of this indicator with the Renko that works similar to the candle and that is of identifying pending consolidation of the market. In a traditional setup of the DMI on a candle chart, the settings are 14,14 and the line of 20 in the indicator is traditionally the line of strength. Meaning that when the ADX falling at or below the 20 line, then the trends are weak and the market is entering consolidation. During this time, the guidance from various sources is to look for patterns on the market and signs of a breakout. For the Renko charts, the are to watch for trend strength and consolidation is between the 35 and 20 area based on the analysis I’ve done. On the following chart, I’ve highlighted some of these areas of consolidation. Additionally, there is a notion of a high-swap of the +/-Dis which is when price has started moving strongly in one direction and then pivots to change direction and build into a strong trend from this. While in hindsight these look compelling, they can be difficult to trade in real-time, it’s difficult to differentiate between a high-swap and a future degradation of the trend that leads to consolidation. I think that the more reliable setup is finding the longer points of consolidation and prepare to trade in the breakout direction. As you can see on the close Friday, price has moved off of a new recent high and could now be trending down into a period of consolidation (if one were to use just the combination of the DMI and ADX). If you’ve not read “Secrets of a Pivot Boss” by Franklin O. Ochoa, I would encourage you to do so as it has many extremely valuable and innovative ideas in trading off volume, value, and pivots. The following discussions will be based on concepts from this book. The first covered will be that of volume area. I will not dig into the specifics of this but to just show one of the many indicators available in TradingView for these concepts. The volume indicators will work with Renko charts and the specific one I’m using allows me to set the increment of volume based on rows or ticks. I’ve chosen ticks and set the number to 5. With a 25 tick Renko chart, this will allow for a granularity of 5 rows per block for displaying the volume profile. In the chart below, I’ve highlighted a concept outlined in the book of the volume area that is extended out to the next trading day and is what forms the basis for 2-day volume area analysis. There are 6 scenarios that go with this analysis and the pink channels on the chart are intended to enable this view. The volume profile I’ve picked in the indicator is for the week so the analysis I do is for the week and not daily. One of the key setups from the book is an ‘inside day’ which you can see at the black arrow. An inside day is a day to watch for breakout (in this case it would be an inside week) and, after support was found, the price went higher. The last set of indicators that I’ll cover is the Camarilla Pivots. These too are covered in depth in the book referenced above as well as a wealth of details on the web. These pivots do not work on Renko charts so I will create a candle chart with an 8hr setting and then set up the monthly and yearly pivots on it. From this chart, I’ll copy key lines over to the Renko chart. This first chart is a view of the 25 tick, 15 minute chart going back to the beginning of 2024. I’ve labeled some of the key lines on this chart for both the year 2024 and the month of March. This is zoomed into the month of March. I believe a key concept that makes these pivots on the Renko with the timeframe powerful is the ability to see the tests that happen around the various pivots for both support and resistance. There is an entire trading strategy that is outlined in the book referenced above. The current price action seems to imply that price should come back to either the March R3 or the 2024 R3 (which is also the top of the value area for 2023). If price action does come back to these lines, careful attention should be paid to how support plays out and if a buying or selling opportunity arises from it. Next, I’ll provide a view with all of the reviewed items in one view. I’m standing aside on trading this for now until the current price action plays out and a cleaning view of potential trade comes into focus. Some observations considering what’s been discussed individually in this study: The DEMA is currently swapped to the bearish trend. The -DI is over the +DI which is a bearish trend. However, The ADX has been dropping to the 35 line but has not dropped in the 35 to 20 range to indicate a consolidation phase. The Stoch has not completely bottomed out long term and could see more downward movement. While price is at the top of the 1std of the LR, it could drop further. A drop and hold of the 2024 R3, March R3, top of the 2023 volume area, and the median of the current LR (all would be within proximity of each other) could be a strong buy setup. A break below these lines with an ensuing test from the bottom could be a strong sell setup. The relationship of the past two weeks’ volume area is bullish.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961